Is Northern Ireland a lost cause?

bounty

yarr, northern ireland be no lost cause, it may take another 30 years for it to be ship shape, but it be just a matter o' time

Maskhadov

cal29 wrote:

Again facts are thrown out with no back up

could you please back up statements of fact with links as it is a complete pain in the arse finding out most of the " facts" been put up here are bull**** and it wastes everyones time

Go and find out for yourself. I know I have read the statastics in a business newspaper. Im 110% sure about this. The north has a far higher proportion of its workforce in the public sector than in the south. The British tax payer pays for that.

Find out how many people it should only take to run the north. Then add on the difference to the unemployment figure. It would shoot away up.

Public sector employment is the biggest problem in the north.

black_jack

cal29 wrote:

the INLA are not active in a violent campaign to remove the british they are on a recognised ceasefire

Nice goal post shifting, I brought the INLA in not because they're on ceasefire but because for 20 odd years they engaged in a miltary campaign for a hairbrained scheme of a unitied socialist republic. You had been arguing that unionists wouldn't engage in a terrorist campaign because their goals wouldn't be achievable, I merely pointed out that achievability and terrorist violence don't go arm and arm and we've had many a lunactic commiting actions of violence in the hope of achieving impossible goals. Ergo your suggestion that the unionists won't bother is a false assumption.

yes there is no alternative if the people of the six counties vote for it
that is it. It is over

Actually we all voted for it. And it's not over, and we voted to remove our claim over the six counties. Suggesting that Unionism is just going to roll over and accept a united ireland ignores the reality, that they're not.

I gave it as an example obviously as i heard it on the radio i dont have a link

Its a text poll, it worth less than the paper it's written on.

No one lost votes because obviously people are not turned off by the idea

Claiming you're for a united ireland is like saying you're in favour of sunshine and puppies, its not going to hurt you by saying but it could hurt you of say weren't doesn't mean you're going to do anything about it.

yes

And tell me why wouldn't a unionist terror campaign to stop reunification be so unachievable?

oh do they come last out of two clutching at straws come on

Skipping the poor punucation, I suggest you look at the economies of er wales and Scotland, and while you're at it england.

Of course there was a purpose

Thats nice, now care to explain what alternative you'd have to the irish army patrolling in the north post reunification?

I was not being completely serious

Yeah, I get that impression through out all your posts.

I think you are missing the point there are plans to introduce a reserve here as well as 2000 extra full time Gardai so obviously the Government feel we dont have enough Gardai so to present the 12500 gardai as a complete figure is unreal as by the time of reunification the figures for police numbers are more likely to be more proportional

Yes plans to, where are they? It's taken us five years and we haven't got the xtra 2000, how are we going to come up with the thousands more we're going to need, particularly as you don't want to use the army.

if reunification was happening today and there was no plans to employ extra gardai and no plans for a reserve force then the comparison would be legitimate but it is not happening today and by the time it does happen those garda plans should be implemented ( although dont hold your breath)

See I love this, you're aware of the pratical issues, the problems, and our governments half witted handling of the issues, but you still want to go ahead and do it.

West germany had a completely different type of economy to the one that exists here now it was far more manafacturing based those jobs would ahve left because of the cheaper production costs in Asia wether germany was unified or not

And the outsourcing of service industry jobs to Asia thats currently happening is going to do what to us?

And again trying to compare a centrally organised economy like that that existed in East germany to an open economy that exists in the north is just laughable and again you are clutching at straws




Iam niave and you think the east german economy is similar to the norths come on

No actually I not, I'm talking about the burden west germany endure absorbing that crippled state and the effect it had on their economy. I wasn't comparing east germany to ni I was comparing the process of reunification and the economic dead weight that west germany absorded. Thats the parrallel you're ignoring.

murphaph

bounty wrote:

yarr, northern ireland be no lost cause, it may take another 30 years for it to be ship shape, but it be just a matter o' time

arrrrh, me hearties, shiver me timbers, but norn iron be fcuked

cal29

legalimmigrant wrote:

Yeah, it says one community can't force the other to join the republic without its consent.

I suggest you read it again because that is not what it says

cal29

Maskhadov wrote:

Go and find out for yourself. I know I have read the statastics in a business newspaper. Im 110% sure about this. The north has a far higher proportion of its workforce in the public sector than in the south. The British tax payer pays for that.

Find out how many people it should only take to run the north. Then add on the difference to the unemployment figure. It would shoot away up.

Public sector employment is the biggest problem in the north.

Selective quoting as well

110% wrong is what your statement was and if you had quoted my entire post it would have included the link that proved it

cal29

legalimmigrant wrote:

Um... you are aware how the government of Northern Ireland works, right?

[Silly me, of course you're not.] The locals get no say over the other half of the money. Defence, macro-economic policy and function, the Northern Ireland Office, foreign affairs spending... none of it's included in the budget that the NI Executive gets. Same as Scotland in that regard.

So perhaps before screaming "bull****" you'd care to make sure you're not simply ignorant?.

http://www.pfgbudgetni.gov.uk/speech.pdf


You call me ignorant I suggest you look into it again the cost of security etc is not another 6 billion sterling

year in question I believe it was about 1 billion to 1.5 billion


And most of what people are posting here is bull**** that they can not back up from 8 to 1 to 18000 police to 19 billion euro all bull**** that people are coming up with off the tops of their heads

Comparatively, not much. And well over a third of it is tax deductions from people on the public payroll anyway.

And in anticipation of what predictably comes next:

legalimmigrant wrote:

1. No, you don't get a saving from not having to spend money on the military because there'd be open warfare on the streets from the UDA/UFF/whatever from the off so you'd need to either put the Irish Army in or match funds for equivalent policing, or just watch people die by the hundreds
.

FFS will one of you answer the question and not just keep spouting the same line over and over again

Just because you keep saying it does not make it true

In the context of a democratic vote as laid out in the GFA and overwhelmingly accepted by the people of Ireland North and South the British leave the Unionists are no longer a majority in the 6 counties because otherwise they would not have lost the vote

What in the name of sweet baby jesus are they going to be fighting for

the brits to come back or a completely unsubsidised unviable independent 2 counties where they are still in a majority neither is possible there is a binding international agreement that lays out what will happen when the people of the north no longer want to be in the UK

I dont expect the Unionists to be too happy but that is what has been agreed and there is no alternative

I would imagine that a large number of Unionists will just leave as they will not be happy in a united Ireland but there will not be a Concerted terrorist campaign because there will not be the kind oF discrimination which fed the IRA campaign also there will be no Achieveable outcome for te Unionists


I also find it laughable that the very people who decried the IRA and said there should be no Surrender to terrorist demands are happy to cow before a possible Unionist threat and suggest that the democratic wishes of the people are less important than the risk of incurring the wrath of unionist terrorists

I cant believe that people can keep a straight face while lecturing to Nationalists that they should accept the status quo as democracy but are prepared to turn their backs on the same democracy they hold up if they percieve that there might be some trouble

Material Man

cal29 wrote:

Perhaps you might like to tell the truth and help conquer the ignorance that you percieve

The PSNI does not have 18000 members even the RUC at the height of the troubles only had 8500 members and a further 4500 reservists

at the moment the PSNI have about 7300 officers and about 2500 full time and part time reservists that is less than 10000 in total

For the record the PSNI has 73 police personnel per 10,000 of the population (compared to Gtr Manchester which has 37). This equates to approx 12,400 police officers, reservists and civilian staff with an annual budget of £774 million. http://www.fortnight.org/richer425.html

And most of what people are posting here is bull**** that they can not back up from 8 to 1 to 18000 police to 19 billion euro all bull**** that people are coming up with off the tops of their heads

The average expenditure by gov't per head of population in the UK is £8,700 which for NI equates to approx. £15 billion. I haven't seen figures for what the tax take in NI is. Does anyone know?

Total public spending is expected to be around £519 billion in 2005-06, around
£8,700 for every man, woman and child in the UK. It is set to rise to £549 billion in
2006-07 and to £580 billion in 2007-08.

http://www.hm-treasury.gov.uk/media/CA0/BB/bud05_reg_northernireland.pdf

Maskhadov

cal29 wrote:

Selective quoting as well

110% wrong is what your statement was and if you had quoted my entire post it would have included the link that proved it

Its not wrong Cal29. I know for a fact that there is an over reliance on the public sector with a tiny private sector.

The link you posted is bogus data.

cal29

Maskhadov wrote:

Its not wrong Cal29. I know for a fact that there is an over reliance on the public sector with a tiny private sector.

The link you posted is bogus data.

LOL

The department of trade enterprise and Investment for Northern Ireland

http://www.detini.co.uk/cgi-bin/gethome

are providing bogus data and you know better than them because you read it in a newspaper somewhere


Come on lets be honest here you were wrong in your original statement

murphaph

cal29 wrote:

And most of what people are posting here is bull**** that they can not back up from 8 to 1 to 18000 police to 19 billion euro all bull**** that people are coming up with off the tops of their heads

All you need to know is that NI requires at least a five billion euro subvention annually to survive. That's 5 port tunnels a year!

cal29 wrote:

In the context of a democratic vote as laid out in the GFA and overwhelmingly accepted by the people of Ireland North and South the British leave the Unionists are no longer a majority in the 6 counties because otherwise they would not have lost the vote

What in the name of sweet baby jesus are they going to be fighting for

The nationalist population has always been in the minority in Northern Ireland, in a substantial minority for most of Northern Ireland's history but that didn't stop the IRA/INLA from commiting their multiple acts of terror even after the electoral boundary (gerrymandering) issue was rectified and one person one vote was introduced. Terrorists don't operate in acompletely dispassionate and analytical way. So in the same way, you can't assume Loyalist terrorists will accept the result of a hypothetical referendum in NI in which a majority voted to leave the UK.

cal29 wrote:

the brits to come back or a completely unsubsidised unviable independent 2 counties where they are still in a majority neither is possible there is a binding international agreement that lays out what will happen when the people of the north no longer want to be in the UK

Again-a minority of people in Northern Ireland not wanting to be part of the UK hasn't prevented republican terrorism for all these years, even after all the inequalities of the old unionist dominated NI government were erradicated following the introduction of direct rule.

cal29 wrote:

I dont expect the Unionists to be too happy but that is what has been agreed and there is no alternative

Their opinion will likely differ from yours on that.

cal29 wrote:

I would imagine that a large number of Unionists will just leave as they will not be happy in a united Ireland but there will not be a Concerted terrorist campaign because there will not be the kind oF discrimination which fed the IRA campaign also there will be no Achieveable outcome for te Unionists

See above-the IRA continued blowing up children long after the inequalities were removed from the democratic system in NI. Logic didn't rule their hearts and it won't rule the Loyalists'. Hmmmm, I wonder why those unionists would even dream of leaving in your all inclusive republican utopia! :rolleyes:

cal29

murphaph wrote:

All you need to know is that NI requires at least a five billion euro subvention annually to survive. That's 5 port tunnels a year!


The nationalist population has always been in the minority in Northern Ireland, in a substantial minority for most of Northern Ireland's history but that didn't stop the IRA/INLA from commiting their multiple acts of terror even after the electoral boundary (gerrymandering) issue was rectified and one person one vote was introduced. Terrorists don't operate in acompletely dispassionate and analytical way. So in the same way, you can't assume Loyalist terrorists will accept the result of a hypothetical referendum in NI in which a majority voted to leave the UK.


Again-a minority of people in Northern Ireland not wanting to be part of the UK hasn't prevented republican terrorism for all these years, even after all the inequalities of the old unionist dominated NI government were erradicated following the introduction of direct rule.


Their opinion will likely differ from yours on that.


See above-the IRA continued blowing up children long after the inequalities were removed from the democratic system in NI. Logic didn't rule their hearts and it won't rule the Loyalists'. Hmmmm, I wonder why those unionists would even dream of leaving in your all inclusive republican utopia! :rolleyes:

Ok i haven't time for a long response but basically here is the short version


Ok lets except a figure of 5 billion the logical conclusion is how much does donegal cost or connaught or west cork should we expel the parts of Ireland that dont pay their own way


The Nationalist campaign had a logical and reasonable expectation of success as the vast majority of the people of the 26 counties actually wanted a united Ireland there was even a claim of the 6 counties in the constitution
There would be no such expectation of success for a loyalist campaign the british government dont want them and the British people dont want them


And they might have a different view but that is what they signed upto in the GFA which was overwhelmingly passed
It is an international agreement between the two countries and was endorsed by the people north and south

So can i get this right here people are suggesting that even when the people of the 6 counties vote for reunification it should not happen because Unionists would engage in a terrorist campaign.

So democracy should take a back seat to the threat of terrorism well I have to say it is very inciteful to see how you anti republicans think


and finally I think that some unionists have so set themselves against a united Ireland that they would leave rather than live in it irrespective of what was done to make them stay
I would prefer if no one left as it is their country as much as it is mine or yours

Maskhadov

cal29 wrote:

LOL

The department of trade enterprise and Investment for Northern Ireland

http://www.detini.co.uk/cgi-bin/gethome

are providing bogus data and you know better than them because you read it in a newspaper somewhere


Come on lets be honest here you were wrong in your original statement

No, Im not wrong.

I spent 7 years in northern ireland, at a tech and Queens University. I know by my own personal experience and experience of my friends when trying to get a job. I have read numerous books and newspapers on the north and i know that one of the facts is that most of the employment (a really big percentage) is in the civil service or public sector in one form or another.

that link you posted is only to a website... it isnt exact data.

murphaph

cal29 wrote:

Ok lets except a figure of 5 billion the logical conclusion is how much does donegal cost or connaught or west cork should we expel the parts of Ireland that dont pay their own way

I was waiting for this-I'm just surprised it took you so long. Let's look at the counties of Ulster in the Republic. Donegal for example, requires a subvention of €109m, Cavan requires €5m and Monaghan requires €18m, that's a grand total of €123m annually from other counties (mainly Dublin which sends roughly half a billion to the counties who can't support themselves financially). Read that again-€123m for 3 counties*. NI requires 41 times that subvention for 6 counties. NI is densely populated, especially in the east. It's the next most densely populated area of the island after Dublin, on paper it should be productive but it isn't. It's a huge money absorbing sponge. It should also be noted that much of the current subvention to Donegal, Cavan and Monaghan is being spent on one-off roads and infrastructure projects which benefit the nation which for the most part are not taking place in NI, their subvention is just to keep the beast alive, not to help it develop (although there are some roads schemes in the pipeline up there).

cal29 wrote:

The Nationalist campaign had a logical and reasonable expectation of success as the vast majority of the people of the 26 counties actually wanted a united Ireland there was even a claim of the 6 counties in the constitution

There would be no such expectation of success for a loyalist campaign the british government dont want them and the British people dont want them
Again, you're trusting terrorists to be logical and reasonable. People who murder other people because of their beliefs are not logical and reasonable.

cal29 wrote:

And they might have a different view but that is what they signed upto in the GFA which was overwhelmingly passed
It is an international agreement between the two countries and was endorsed by the people north and south

So was the Ireland Act, 1920. The GFA wasn't passed overwhelmingly by Uninionists either for your information. Roughly half of them voted against it.

cal29 wrote:

So can i get this right here people are suggesting that even when the people of the 6 counties vote for reunification it should not happen because Unionists would engage in a terrorist campaign.

So democracy should take a back seat to the threat of terrorism well I have to say it is very inciteful to see how you anti republicans think

You're assuming that a majority of the citizens of our country (the 26 county Repblic of Ireland) would also vote for unity. Poll after poll puts this further in doubt as time goes by and the true cost of the subvention becomes apparent to Irish citizens. It's typical of republican's to be happy to gamble the future of our country (the 26 county Repblic of Ireland) for a pipedream that really benefits nobody! The status quo is fine. Nobody is oppressed by the state in NI, Is it some sort of impotent inadequacy that republicans feel because part of this island is also part of the United Kingdom?!

*source: Central Statistics Office

biko

murphaph wrote:

People who murder other people because of their beliefs are not logical and reasonable.

See "The Bay of Pigs Invasion" 1961
http://www.accesspro.net/machete/cuba/libre/bay.htm

MrPudding

Who in NI Ireland in their right mind would even consider a UI? Was there not a poll recently that showed roughly 50% of Catholics in NI would not vote for a UI?

Why would they?

Here is what they have to look forward to

-5% increase in VAT.
-VAT on food items currently not taxed in the UK.
-VRT.
-€50 plus to see a doctor where it is currently free.
-Paying for perscriptions for children. Currently kids get free medcine until 16 or 19 if in fulltime education.
-€40 to visit casualty.
-Considerable increases in the price of drink.
-Increase in direct and indirect taxes.
- Being ruled by a government that could not organise a ride in a brothel with a wallet full of €50 notes.

Seriously why would they? I reckon the number of Catholics that would vote for a UI would drop further when someone actually explained to them what a raping they would get as part of the glorious United Ireland. The Ideal of a UI is great but i don't want one, mostly for economic reason.

Another reason I don't want one is I reckon there will be trouble. Anyone that thinks the loyalist will not run riot just because there would be no point needs to switch of the "Gerry's Greatest Speaches" DVD for 10 minutes and catch themselves on. We are talking about the people that shut NI down for 5 days in protest at the Anglo Irish Agreement. Not to mention the unionist strikes in the 70s. Yeah really rational.

MrP

Maskhadov

I think your only painting one half of the picture Mrpudding.

Ireland has a better quality of life than the United Kingdom

Wages here are higher and taxes are generally lower.

murphaph

Maskhadov wrote:

Ireland has a better quality of life than the United Kingdom

That's highly debatable!

Maskhadov wrote:

Wages here are higher and taxes are generally lower.

No they're not! This is the land of VAT on motorcycle helmets ffs! (nowhere else does this, certainly not the UK). We may have lower direct taxation but we have a multitude of stealth taxes that the UK doesn't, nevermind paying for all those health services that are free at the point of delivery in the UK.

United Ireland benefits nobody except a few oddballs.

Blackjack

murphaph wrote:

That's highly debatable!


No they're not! This is the land of VAT on motorcycle helmets ffs! (nowhere else does this, certainly not the UK). We may have lower direct taxation but we have a multitude of stealth taxes that the UK doesn't, nevermind paying for all those health services that are free at the point of delivery in the UK.

United Ireland benefits nobody except a few oddballs.

On the subject of taxation, there is no Council Tax in the Republic, Council tax (about £1000 per property is the minimum) does exist in the UK. You would need to earn in excess of 33k sterling to be any better off on personal taxation than you would be on the equivalent Irish Salary - that's over 45K euro - not a bad wage before you pay any less tax in the UK. That does not take into account the various allowances available in Ireland (AVC's on pensions being deductable at the higher rate including your PRSI, Marriage allowance, rent allowance, Mortgage allowance, the list does actually go on quite a bit) that are not available in the UK.
Anyway, that's off topic, but I thought it worth pointing out.

Personally I reckon a United Ireland is a pipe dream. It might be nice, but the country could do without the expense and the baggage. Onward wth the unification of the EU, it will end up being all the same in the end.

MrPudding

murphaph wrote:

That's highly debatable!


No they're not! This is the land of VAT on motorcycle helmets ffs! (nowhere else does this, certainly not the UK). We may have lower direct taxation but we have a multitude of stealth taxes that the UK doesn't, nevermind paying for all those health services that are free at the point of delivery in the UK.

United Ireland benefits nobody except a few oddballs.

Very debatable.

Do we have lower tax?

Uk taxes:

Taxable Bands

Taxable Bands Allowances 2004-05 (£) 2005-06 (£)

Starting rate 10% 0 - 2 020 0 - 2,090

Basic rate 22% 2,021 - 31,400 2,090 - 32,400

Higher rate 40% Over 31 400 over 32,400

Source: http://www.hmrc.gov.uk/rates/it.htm

Irish Rates:

€29400 @ 20% and the balance at 42%. Source: http://www.revenue.ie/

There are. of course, allowances to take into account but I think it is fairly clear you pay less direct tax in the UK, you need to earn nearly €50k in the UK before you hit the top band.

On top of this we get shafted in indirect taxes here. For me the standard of living is much better in NI, assuming you have a job that is.

MrP

Blackjack

MrPudding wrote:

Very debatable.

There are. of course, allowances to take into account but I think it is fairly clear you pay less direct tax in the UK, you need to earn nearly €50k in the UK before you hit the top band.

On top of this we get shafted in indirect taxes here. For me the standard of living is much better in NI, assuming you have a job that is.

MrP

MrP - I don't think your're taking into account the rather considerably more generous Tax Free Allowances (I believe TFA in Ireland works out about 17K) whereas its only about 4K Sterling. Also, National Insurance (equivalent of PRSI) is around 11 or 12 % compared to a maximum of 7.5% or so in Ireland.
Seriously - I recently worked it out but the exchange rates would be making the only difference now - you would have to earn a basic salary in excess of 33K sterling before you would be any better off on the equivalent salary in EUR. That does not take into account any of the allowances mentioned in my previous post, or payment of council tax.
Irish Tax calculator and UK Tax calculator here . XE is quoting a rate of 1.484 EUR to the GBP.
Anyhoo, that's weeeelllll off topic.

Standard of living better in NI?. Now THATS debatable!.

murphaph

Blackjack wrote:

Standard of living better in NI?. Now THATS debatable!.

I don't agree. If you lived in a nice big house on th Malone Road or a nice big house in the Fermanagh countryside you'd probably be happy enough. The TV usually shows the less des-res type properties!

Blackjack

murphaph wrote:

I don't agree. If you lived in a nice big house on th Malone Road or a nice big house in the Fermanagh countryside you'd probably be happy enough. The TV usually shows the less des-res type properties!

Big houses exist in the Republic also. Various surveys recently have put Ireland quite high on the list when it comes to Quality of Life. I don't recall seeing Northern Ireland on any of those lists.

LordSutch

Is Northern Ireland a lost cause? well as usual with the North question it depends on which side of the fence you are sitting!
A Unionist (British person) will tell you that they feel that their position is not secure in the UK because of constant threat from Sinn Fein, but on the other hand Republicans will say that they cant out breed the brits quickly enough, because thats what it really boils down to folks - If the British majority becomes a minority in N.I then the Good Friday agreement says that "Northern Ireland will
leave the UK"! ......................
Simple as that.

rsynnott

Even if many of the catholic community don't want to join the Republic? Even if the Republic doesn't want NI? And what happens when that nationalist/unionist balance is upset by immigration of people who probably aren't too bothered, and almost certainly don't think it's an issue worth blowing up children over?

I still think that the best solution would be for both the Republic of Ireland and the UK to give up all claims to the place, provide peace-keeping and election supervision for a few months, then leave.

murphaph

Blackjack wrote:

Big houses exist in the Republic also. Various surveys recently have put Ireland quite high on the list when it comes to Quality of Life. I don't recall seeing Northern Ireland on any of those lists.

In fact the Economist ranked us as the best place in the world to live, so because a magazine does a less than scientific 'study' and tells you it's all good, you believe it? :rolleyes:

I can roll off a couple of dozen places that are better to live in than Ireland, easily.

murphaph

ArthurF wrote:

Republicans will say that they cant out breed the brits quickly enough, because thats what it really boils down to folks - If the British majority becomes a minority in N.I then the Good Friday agreement says that "Northern Ireland will
leave the UK"! ......................
Simple as that.

It's not as simple as that. They have to outbreed anyone who wants NI to remain part of the UK. Lots of 'non-brits' in there.

monument

murphaph wrote:

In fact the Economist ranked us as the best place in the world to live, so because a magazine does a less than scientific 'study' and tells you it's all good, you believe it? :rolleyes:

I can roll off a couple of dozen places that are better to live in than Ireland, easily.

While I don't believe everything the Economist comes up with, it's better then what can "roll off".

linux

murphaph wrote:

Cost: €€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€
Benefit: 0

How's that?

That's a very childish moronic assumption of a political problem.
NI is a lost cause? what kind of a ridiculous question is that in the first place.
I can see why Politics.ie is regarded as a proper discussion forum and not full of moronic idiots who can't even debate a subject with some degree of intelligence :rolleyes:

murphaph

monument wrote:

While I don't believe everything the Economist comes up with, it's better then what can "roll off".

Can you not name one country that you feel is better to live in than here?