Something for you to mull over on tuesday

fade2black

Pretty poor fare as racing goes today but I think the following have good chances of success.

5:00 Thirsk

Art Elegant.

I was trying hard to find something in the race to beat this horse and the closest I could find was Brave Bear. Winner last time out Brave Bear now steps up a little in opposition and also in trip. I think the latter will have more of an influence because she was looking very tired near the end of her last race, a race which she won but seemed to have everything going right for her that day - ground (she needs a bit of cut), Trip - 5f is her limit. Art Elegant on the other hand should find everything in his favour today. Finished a neck behind a, by no means decent horse last time, he tackles inferior opposition today and this seems to be the right trip for the horse. Tackling the shortest trip he has ever faced seemed to be an experiment by his new trainer, Ian Semple, but it paid off a plum draw should be enough to beat this lot today.

3:10 Salisbury

Kalankari and Archimboldo - You decide!

I took a long hard look at this race and boiled it down to two obvious contenders - Archimboldo and Kalankari. As the RP points out Fredricksburg is entitled to inprove but that would be a gamble and it's best to stick with the form choices.

Archimboldo beat Kalankari by 1 length last time out. Kalankari was getting 5 pounds off him. Today he gets 10 pounds. The rest is up to you. I think that 5 pounds is enough for the form to be turned around because I think Archimboldo would like a little cut in the ground....so if it rains over night and the going changes...I think the Prescott horse could shade it. However, I think Kalankari has an equal chance of improvement and 5 pounds may be the gift that wins the race for him.

You may think differently though so lemme hear some opinions.

masterK

I'd find it very difficult to back in the 3:10 with one of Prescott's so called improvers involved. Strictly on the form book Kalankari should easily beat Archimboldo with the weight swing, however it's not always that straight forward as it is difficult to know just how much Archimboldo had in hand when winning.

That victory was some improvement on Archimboldo previous starts, coincidentally in it's first handicap run. A quick look at it's speed figures verifies this, it's RP Topspeed ratings are 30-12-43-80. It also finished 5 lengths behind Trimwaki at Warwick off level weights then improved to beat Trimwaki by 12 lengths giving it 8lb last time out. On the basis of it's last run it's improved by at least 2 stone from its maidens. I also wouldn't rule out Daggernough who looked a decent type until flopping on the All weather last time out.

fade2black

Well that's the purpose of the thread masterK, for everyone to look at the race in the detail that you just did and to come to their own opinion. If I posted a race like this every second day and more got involved they would find themselves learning more about the game and maybe becoming more selective.

masterK

As you probably noticed I am not one of Prescotts admirers, I get quite annoyed when I see his horses do nothing in maidens, get a decent handicap mark and then step up in trip to win a few races.

Of the other races today there are a couple of quite interesting maidens.

3:00 Thirsk

A cracking little maiden for a class 5, most of those that have run very creditable efforts against high class opposition.

Baileys Encore disappointed last time when dropped back in trip behind Johannes, prior to that he had an excellent effort behind Araafa and Kilworth both of whom have ran well in Listed and Group 3 races since.

Nesno finished 4th behind top juveniles City of Troy and Art Deco and prior to that finished 3rd of 16 on it's debut.

Northen Boy, Natural Force and Spiritual Peace have all made encouraging starts to their racing careers.

For me Baileys Encore has the best form to date and more experience that the rest so he is my selection.

2:40

Live Fast looks to be in with an excellent chance in this if you can forgive it's last run on less than ideal ground. Before that he had 3 successfive 2nds including when just beaten by Group 2 placed Killybegs. This looks his easiest race to date. He has already easily beaten Jumbajukiba who in turn finished just behind todays 2nd favourite Spearit. By that form line he looks to have the measure of those two.

scojones

fade2black wrote:

Pretty poor fare as racing goes today but I think the following have good chances of success.

5:00 Thirsk

Art Elegant.

I was trying hard to find something in the race to beat this horse and the closest I could find was Brave Bear. Winner last time out Brave Bear now steps up a little in opposition and also in trip. I think the latter will have more of an influence because she was looking very tired near the end of her last race, a race which she won but seemed to have everything going right for her that day - ground (she needs a bit of cut), Trip - 5f is her limit. Art Elegant on the other hand should find everything in his favour today. Finished a neck behind a, by no means decent horse last time, he tackles inferior opposition today and this seems to be the right trip for the horse. Tackling the shortest trip he has ever faced seemed to be an experiment by his new trainer, Ian Semple, but it paid off a plum draw should be enough to beat this lot today.

I think Drum Dance has a great chance in this race, it has been exposed to class 5 and class 4 races, and it won here in Thirsk back in April with a similar draw here today. However it was lower in the weights then.

Miss Malone is a horse that I picked out last time out, and to be honest the name attracted me to the horse before I actually checked out the form. This horse is going to be improving, and I really liked it last time out, but the 7f was definately a furlong too far for it. Today it's being bumped down to 6f, so I expect it to be in the leading pack up to the last furlong, whether it stays on or not is another story.

I haven't really looked at any of the others, but Owed did very well in it's last two races which were over 7f where it chased the leader but weakend inside the last furlong. It is also being bumped down to 6f today and is also one to watch.

masterK

What a bad day to back a winner, outsiders are winning left, right and centre. Just look at the winning odds of the last few races 10/1, 16/1,6/1,16/1 and 50/1. Only one favourite had won so far and some very short priced horses have been beaten.

scojones

And another 16/1 :eek: