QEII Stakes Newmarket Saturday 24th Sep.

528i · 21-09-2005 1:52am #1

1m Newmarket Saturday 16:20

Dubawi @ 13 - 8

Cracking form and should have the edge on rakti and starcraft before his trip stateside

masterK · 21-09-2005 8:01am

It really all depends on the ground as far as I can see, if it's good to firm or firmer then it's Rakti, otherwise it's Dubawi. At the moment it's good but Newmarket usually dries out quickly so it could change come Saturday.

Crumbs · 21-09-2005 8:03am

I slightly prefer Rakti at 11/4 if the rain stays away before Saturday. If the ground softens or if Rakti goes all PMS before the race, then I'd lay him off and back Dubawi.

fade2black · 21-09-2005 10:46am

I've climbed up to 7th in Ireland in the Seven Stars Competition and most of the main leaders have shamardal, whereas I have Dubawi, so I'll be hoping for a godolphin win this saturday. Not sure where the OP has got 13/8 from though...he seems to be 2-1 worst price everwhere.

fade2black · 21-09-2005 11:02am

Also, speaking from the head I think Dubawi will win. Rakti is talented but a complete and utter headcase. The fact that there's going to be a parade before the race on Saturday will just mean that Rakti will shit himself evenmore and run no kind of race. (Seriously though...i think that's something to consider. He's definitely a talented horse who has a huge chance in this but he has to go through a lot before he goes through those stalls this weekend)

Crumbs · 21-09-2005 11:14am

It's been over 3 months since Rakti's last run and he always seems to be more relaxed and runs better coming back from a break. But I'll still wait until the preliminaries on Saturday before wagering any serious money.

528i · 21-09-2005 3:03pm

fade2black wrote:

Not sure where the OP has got 13/8 from though...he seems to be 2-1 worst price everwhere.

13 - 8 on paddypower.com

fade2black · 21-09-2005 3:12pm

hmmm.....too short...

Bartonprince · 22-09-2005 2:54pm

Rakti is a machine.

take 11/4 on him or better if you can.

Dubawi hasn't trounced his opposition yet.

I think he has raced well when others have under achieved.

fade2black · 22-09-2005 3:01pm

I think Dubawi's two length beating of Oratorio reads very well in the context of this race. It's gonna be a cracker all the same, one where I won't be having a bet, just shouting on my Godolphin Star...!

Bartonprince · 22-09-2005 3:09pm

How about the fact that in that race, Oratorio closed like a train on him, and halved the distance he was behind in a matter of yards... dubawi was a tired horse at the end of that race. Oratorio is a better hore. he just needs to be pushed. very very lazy he is.

Motivator trashed Dubawi in the Derby, Oratorio beat an all out Motivator in the champ.

Rakti is your horse... we've seen it so many times with the Godolphin horses. There races are selected very well.

Do you think for one second if Divine Proportions was firing on all cylinders that Dubawi would have even been with in 2 lengths or her?

And if you're looking for a star... Keep your eye on Arabian Prince form the O'Brian yard...

fade2black · 22-09-2005 3:13pm

I think you contradicted yourself a few times there.

Bartonprince · 22-09-2005 3:19pm

Not really.

Just saying that Dubawai s good. But he's one of those horses who you know if he came under serious pressure from a good horse would fold.

He beat Oratorio, but would have lost had Oratorio got he's finger out a few seconds earlier.

Oratorio then showed he was better by beating motivator (who trashed Dubawi by a large margain)

I like him, but i don't think he is up to beating Rakti. Rakti's track record at newbury proves he will be the one in my eyes to give Dubawi the kind of pressure thats needed for him to fail again.

fade2black · 22-09-2005 3:24pm

The one thing missing from this race, that worries me about dubawi's chance, and this may sound silly....but it's a positive word from the godolphin camp. The last few times godolphin have taken a big race the word from them pre race was excellent and they sounded very confident. Nothing much coming forth this time, except from the starcraft camp. You really couldn't bet on Rakti until he's in the stalls and Dubawi is capable of having an off day....a watching brief for me definitely.

Bartonprince · 22-09-2005 3:28pm

it is a tough call. all those great horses can have off days. look at azamour! remember him cruising past bago and the lads in he's last win. i didn't like him but he did it so easily. then when he came up against true top horses he folded.

If Dubawi beats rakti and puts up a respectable time. i won't doubt him again.

only for he's 5th to footstepsinthesand in the guineas, he would be almost a eplica so far off he's daddys race recrod!.

Didn't Oath beat Dubai Millenium into 8th or 9th in the derby or something?

Bartonprince · 22-09-2005 3:29pm

But Dubai Millenium was beating he's opposition by 3lengths, 6 lengths, 8 lengths etc...

Morgans · 22-09-2005 4:09pm

Bartonprince,

you sound like a man who knows that the Irish Guineas, the Irish Champion Stakes, the Eclipse, and the Derby are run over different distances, and the implications of such knowledge.

It should be remembered that motivator also, as you would say, thrashed, oratorio earlier.

Bartonprince · 22-09-2005 4:57pm

I do know this.

I know that Dubawi is not solid over a mile or further. as we saw in both the 2000 guineas.

If Rakti wasn't in the race i'd say Dubawi. although he does look a class act on some of he's form. If Divine proportions and whipper were all out in france then that is fine form indeed.

I think its about time we had an undisputed chamion.

So many horses lately have looked to be the genuine article and have failed at some point

Attraction
Dubawi
Azamour
Soviet song

I think Shamardal proved to be the best at the time. But didn't he get injured?

fade2black · 22-09-2005 5:10pm

And Shamardal flopped in Dubai in his first start since leaving Mark Johnston as a three year old. Regardless of the reason, not all horses can maintain a 100% record, which is inself another reason to avoid long odds on shots like the plague. His career is over now though.

It all comes down to how a horse is "on the day"...and all we can really do, as punters, is try and find out the horses ideal conditions and then just hold our breaths after that.

As for the race on Saturday...if the word soft appears anywhere on the going it will really have to be Dubawi.....

Bartonprince · 22-09-2005 5:29pm

If a horse is good enough. They can will all their races.

Every hear of a racemare called Personal Ensign?

I think she won all of her 14 starts, including the breeders cup distaff on her final outing. She was 10 lengths behind coming off the bend... she won by a nose.

If they're truely great. They will win. don't know any in our time like that though. maybe Cigar. 18 in a row before he retired in 95.. thats 10 years ago though.

fade2black · 22-09-2005 5:35pm

Cigar lost three races...two of those when he was 1/10 and 1/5.

They're really not machines unfortunately

Bartonprince · 22-09-2005 5:39pm

But i think you can class 18 in a row and 14 in a row as legends no? especially seeing that most of those wins were in Grade1 company.

fade2black · 22-09-2005 5:42pm

Yes but do you see my point about how they can't win them all?

Bartonprince · 22-09-2005 6:04pm

Of course i do!

Galileo... He looked to be the best horse for a long time. Second fastest derby time ever. 14 length maiden victory. Then Fantastic Light tipped him in the last furlong. Then he flopped in the BC Classic.

Motivator?

Attraction

all of those. Shame though. Be nice to see one just never loose.

Morgans · 22-09-2005 6:22pm

Actually Bartonprince, I hinted it in the last post, but I dont think you appreciate the fact that these horses have optimum trips. Motivator has only been beaten over 10f having won at 12 - beat Oratorio over 12. BAck over 10f, Oratorio has beaten him twice. Motivator was overrated by many after his Derby win. Galileo won 2 races over 12f, beating fantastic light in one of them, but back over 10f he was beaten by Fantastic Light.

Divine Proportions was overrated, on no form was she ahead of Dubawi, the horses she beat (bar an injured Vadavina) havent done anything, as was Attraction, and while I dont think Azamour was hyped up as much.

You overrate Rakti on the basis of his Newbury win, The form of those behind him was horrible at the time, and looks even worse now. He was the bet of the year going into that race. The best horses do not have the course records, its not like athlethics. It depends on the pace, the ground, the wind, etc. Rakti has a chance if on his best behaviour and his ability to act of firm ground, but on a line through Valixir he has it all to do with Dubawi. I wouldnt rule out Starcraft either. The form of his last win has been working out impressively and if he was trained by Godolphin or O'Brien he would be a lot shorter.

No-one should back rakti until the last minute. In fact, if you are in the bookies, I wouldnt back him until they jumped.

All the great horses get beaten.

Bartonprince · 22-09-2005 6:30pm

ok morgans.

So in 3 races.

If all these horses mentioned ran in 3 races.

8 Furlongs

10 Furlongs

12 Furlongs

who would you think the victos would be. Including all horses that ran. Injured or not.

I think at 8 it would be footstepsinthesand or maybe rakti.

10 i'd say rakti or oratorio

12 i'd say shamardaal or azamour.

Morgans · 22-09-2005 6:35pm

If you list the horses, specify the course, distance, and ground, and explain what you mean by injured or not, i'll give you my opinion. Of course someone else's opinion would differ.

It would be a huge surprise if Shamardal could win a group 1 race over 12f.

Bartonprince · 22-09-2005 7:21pm

ok.. irish champion stakes at leopardstown.

all the above horses. soft ground.

I mean including all horses who would qualify and including horses who are retired due to injury etc...

hard call.

But i think azamour might win overall.

Morgans · 22-09-2005 7:44pm

Oratorio would be favourite given that he beat Azamour two weeks ago, but his style of racing (running in snatches, lazy) could get him into trouble some day. Azamour is probably better over further at this stage. Dubawi would be a serious challenger, but is unproven at the trip and is better suited to a mile. Soft, 1m2f could stretch his stmaina but he would enjoy the ground more than most. Rakti is about as talented a horse in training but can rarely be trusted to give his running. Soft ground wouldnt suit him. Divine Proportions is probably not good enough, Shamardal would be dangerous to write off, but is probably better at a mile, and wouldnt get an easy lead in this company. (Rakti) Tough call, but I would probably back Dettori's mount ew. There's not a lot between a handful of them, and luck in running would play a huge part. I'd chance Dubawi staying.

Bartonprince · 22-09-2005 7:59pm

Good call.... I'd probably chance Oratorio. I think him having to be pushed along just after half way is a bad sign, but he has the ability to outclass them all if he actually ran the way he can. When i saw him win that G2 in france by a nose i could tell he was good. I thin the longer he is running, the better he gets (as in distance) At a mile he's only warming up as we saw against Dubawi in the Guineas. I htink if that was a mile 2 he would have had a good margain behind him at the end.

Good call so, Dubawi or Oratorio. Oratorio for me.

And as a Sprinter, Give me La Cucaracha to outsprint them all!

Crumbs · 22-09-2005 8:09pm

If the Champion Stakes was run again on soft, I'd side with Motivator. And when adding in an all-star cast, I'd mainly fear Shawanda.

The above also applies to the upcoming Arc.

QEII Stakes Newmarket Saturday 24th Sep.

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