Day Trading

CYOF

Why do people always want to give their hard earned money to someone else?

These so called INVESTMENT managers don’t even know the people that have put up the capital for their big investment ideas, which the investor, by the way, probably does not have a clue about. The money is in a managed fund, or index tracker fund, or something like that. Has anyone ever asked to see the top investment managers trading plan? I doubt it. I doubt even more if it would be furnished, if requested?

I am reminded of the recent scam in Ireland involving rare coinage investments - just imagine giving 100K plus to someone called Maz Khan!!! really, how can people be so stupid? Even when the Central Bank issued a warning for Lloyds & Associates, people still continued to give this whiz kid money up to 2 years after the warning. Why?

Well, the obvious answer is greed, these investors were conned into believing that some of their friends had made a killing in rare coinage investments. Very few of them thought of doing some basic research, such as a phone call to the FSA or CBI. Costly mistake!

CYOF

RainyDay

CYOF wrote:

Why do people always want to give their hard earned money to someone else?

Have you a constructive alternative to suggest? Or should OP just stick it under the mattress?

CYOF wrote:

These so called INVESTMENT managers don’t even know the people that have put up the capital for their big investment ideas, which the investor, by the way, probably does not have a clue about. The money is in a managed fund, or index tracker fund, or something like that. Has anyone ever asked to see the top investment managers trading plan? I doubt it. I doubt even more if it would be furnished, if requested?

For the QL funds mentioned, the tracking policy is available on the QL website. Most other fund managers have a defined policy for their fund and post quarterly updates on what's happening in the fund.

CYOF

From what returns you guys are talking about - you might as well stick your money under the mattress, if you want to consider inflation.

Anyone who is interested in making some real returns should look at the US markets, i.e. trading Stocks, Stock Options, SSF's, Commodity Options and Futures on Commodity Options. Sounds a lot, doesn't it, but I have mentioned on this site before that most people are not willing to put the time and effort in to learning what they need to know, in order to make good returns in the markets!

If you have traded the US markets for any length of time, you will see how much of a rip off (yes, Eddie Hobbs is right) Irish Investments really are. Can anyone explain how so called top INVESTMENT MANAGERS can loose billions of Irish Pension funds over a short period of time.Oh yes, sure I forgot, the markets took a turn for the worse!! Where were there strategies for recovering losses? Why were they not hedging their portfolios correctly? Why did the Government allow these losses to build up to such a level?

I don't know what your understanding of a top Investment manager is, but surely it can't be one of the above described individuals?

In relation to QL funds, I never heard of them before I looked at this site, I will never look at their website, or ever consider giving any person my hard earned money to invest on my behalf.

Learn what you need to know, understand risk management in relation to trading, understand that trading the markets is a game of probabilities (forget about all the crap in the textbooks on TA, Dow Theory, etc, etc) and put aside some capital for learning. Use proven strategies from successful people who are still trading. If one can make a commitment to do this, then making returns in the region of 1% per day becomes a reality. Who knows, if you are a real wiz kid, you may even make it to the 5% per day level after a few years!

CYOF

nesf

CYOF wrote:

If you have traded the US markets for any length of time, you will see how much of a rip off (yes, Eddie Hobbs is right) Irish Investments really are. Can anyone explain how so called top INVESTMENT MANAGERS can loose billions of Irish Pension funds over a short period of time.Oh yes, sure I forgot, the markets took a turn for the worse!! Where were there strategies for recovering losses? Why were they not hedging their portfolios correctly? Why did the Government allow these losses to build up to such a level?

I don't know what your understanding of a top Investment manager is, but surely it can't be one of the above described individuals?

1) Investing small sums is very very different to managing a large portfolio.

2) Investment managers everywhere show similar performance. Loses are not just an Irish phenomenom but something seen across investment managers and investors everywhere. It's the very rare exception that can consistently produce large returns.

CYOF wrote:

Learn what you need to know, understand risk management in relation to trading, understand that trading the markets is a game of probabilities (forget about all the crap in the textbooks on TA, Dow Theory, etc, etc) and put aside some capital for learning. Use proven strategies from successful people who are still trading. If one can make a commitment to do this, then making returns in the region of 1% per day becomes a reality. Who knows, if you are a real wiz kid, you may even make it to the 5% per day level after a few years!

"Use proved strategies". And what are these then? I know many professional investors and investment managers and the one thing that every single one of them maintains is that there is no such thing as a proven strategy when it comes to short term investing. Yes for long term investments, but day trading? No.

The only proven thing to help you in the markets, to the best of my knowledge, is experience. And that can be a very expensive thing to gain.

RainyDay

CYOF wrote:

Use proven strategies from successful people who are still trading. If one can make a commitment to do this, then making returns in the region of 1% per day becomes a reality. Who knows, if you are a real wiz kid, you may even make it to the 5% per day level after a few years!

CYOF

You are joking, right - 1% per day - So the professional Harvard-trained fund managers from Merrill Lynch & Smith Barney with the best tools that money can buy at their disposal can get 5%-10% per annum in a good year, but you reckon that anyone can use 'proven strategies from successful people who are still trading' to earn 1% per day?

Here's a bit of reality - The only people dumb enough to promise anything like 1% per day are scam artists. If you expect anyone to take your posts seriously, please post the trading record of any one individual who earned a consistent 1% per day in recent years. Or better still, let me call your bluff and get you to post your trades in advance for the next month or so and we'll all get to see how easy it is for you to make 1% per day.

CYOF

At least NESF has some idea of what I am talking about.

Who is promising anything! I am certainly not. As I mentioned before, trading is a game of probabilities. Once you understand this, and learn about risk management, then you have a good chance of putting the odds in your favour. This of course, is no good without some strategies which have shown to make money consistently - how much you make or loose is entirely up to yourself and your experience level.

Firstly, the only way to learn to make consistent returns in the market is by experience, and yes, it is very costly for most people who take trading seriously. A reasonable guide for most people who stay in the game is 3-5 years trading experience, with tuition fees in the region of 50K +. I call tuition fees all outlay, courses, books, trading losses and lost earnings from other sources due to full time trading. It is easy to see why most people don't last; it is a big commitment to make.

Secondly, I thought I might share some information with people who may be interested in learning what daytrading is really all about.. I have no interest in stupid conversations about these so called professional fund managers. As I keep saying, they make a lot of money from your investments, whether you win or loose. I have no interest in divulging any of my personal details to anyone I don't know.

In relation to strategies, there is a lot of full time traders that only trade the first 1.5 hr that the US market opens. The proven strategy used is called "Sector Based Trading". The time frame is 30sec to 15 min max. The target is based on the ADR of the stocks been traded - which are all priced between 25 and around 90 dollars. Entry and exit depends on such things as, Time and Sales, Volume, Time of Day, ES Futures Price, Nas Futures Price,TICK, TICKI and TRIN.

It is not unreasonable to average 500 to 1K dollars per day with 100K trading account.This normally involves between 5-15 trades (hence low commissions are a must with correct position sizing). Some traders do average 2% to 5% per day, but very few, and they normally have accounts in excess of 500K.

One of the most lucrative markets at the moment is the ES E-mini, because most traders do not have sufficient capital to daytrade stocks, and after the SEC regs were introduced a lot of stock daytraders switched to the ES E-mini due to the low margin rates. The volume has exploded over the last 3 years, and the commission rates have dropped to under 4$ per round trip for casual traders. As one successful trader noted to me, it is like picking falling apples from the ground. This was very easy for him, because he had the experience. When I tried it out first, I was loosing 1k per day papertrading, and that was after daytrading stocks fulltime for 6 months. It took me another 3 months, with real money and very small losses, to learn how to daytrade the Es E-mini for modest returns. Personally, I prefer daytrading stocks, because I can understand what is happening more clearly. This is a very important point that I discovered, trade the markets that you are most comfortable with. A good indication, by the way, is if you are making money! If you are losing, STOP, and re-evaluate your position. You may need additional experience in order to become successful, or you may not be cut out for trading at all.

CYOF

nesf

I think Rainyday's comment was justified.

As you said, it's a game of probabilites.

Lets take a look at a simple but extremely important factor in trading of all types. Risk management.

Lets say you're playing with 3% of your fund. This is the maximum you are allowed to have at risk at any one time. This is a mathematically derived figure, 3% is a good balance of risk/return or so from what I've read and learned. You could edge it one or maybe two percent either way, although at 5% you are looking at some serious dents in your fund in a bad week.

Now this 3% risk is being expected to show a 1% per day return on the rest of your invesment. This is quite a large return when we're looking at the long term.

It's easy to trade for a year and produce this kind of return on a few days. But to produce this return on average? That is extremely difficult. It's not as simple as making that 1% every day, you need to compensate for the bad days, which will always happen.

So we're looking not for a 1% per day but a target range. Each day we need to exceed this to make the return when we are having a good trade. This means that you need to let your wins run longer. In day trading this is not a good thing. Day trading is all about quick short trades like you have said. So we can't leave our trades run longer, it just isn't possible. Then we have to trade more to meet this return. This means more commission etc. High volume trading is one of the classic mistakes made by a novice trader. You need a very large account to be able to absord very high volume often. Basically, if you are a regular investor with a regular trading account with a traditional stockbrokers, high volume trading will kill any returns you make.

People, when paper trading, tend to forget about commission. Factoring commission in is extremely important.


Tbh, 1% returns are not sustainable. Yes you can get them for a few weeks perhaps, if you are lucky, but on the long term? No, the markets don't work that way mate.

If they did why aren't more banks doing what you are doing? Do you honestly think that they would pass up the opportunity or be unaware of it? If you do you're naive imho.

I'd also put the experience level closer to 10 years from what I've seen. You need to be in the middle of a few bull markets and few bear markets before you can say you have a good idea of stock movements.

nesf

Thread split from the original

CYOF

NESF,

From my experience with trading, it is entirely up to yourself to find out and understand how to take money out of the markets.

Everyone thinks and acts differently. Just because big banks and investment houses run their business a certain way, does not mean that you, as an individual, can not be successful. There is more than one way to skin a cat. I am not one bit surprised that the big banks and investment houses do not return 1% per day, they are set up like the textbooks - using trading systems, program trading, etc,etc. It can be easier for an individual to step in and out of the market and take some small profits (500 to 1K per day) which is nothing compared to the money these big investment houses are dealing with.

My biggest mistake for years, was trying to copy what others were doing. It was only when I stopped, reflected on what I was doing, and started again from a different perspective, which I was able to show myself that it was possible to do.

You are right on some things, in reality, anyone who has traded knows that you will have winning days and losing days. To make money, you must have more winning days than losing days, and on those winning days make a lot more than you lost on the losing days.

This, of course, is the where that hard work comes in. I have said that you need some proven strategies - in reality, to make a lot of money, I believe you need to be able to trade a variety of markets. On days when no opportunities arise in the stocks, you might find that some commodities futures are worth paying attention to. You might also have some open positions on commodity options, which you can combine with the futures, to lock in profits. All hard work, but who ever said that making money was easy.

The main point that I am trying to make, is that an individual can be a successful trader, if he/she is willing to commit to learning what they need to know. Unfortunately, this is very hard for most people, as almost everyone want's the easy way out - most people want to make money without any effort.

I spent a long time developing spreadsheets for risk management, trying out several different ways, and in the end I found that the best way was to just sit down, wait for the opportunity, act right away, get out if wrong with a very small loss, and wait for the next opportunity. You also have to understand position sizing, and know when to add, close out, and reverse a trade. If you have the patience, to learn , then it becomes normal for you. A lot of traders get sucked in to trading, I done it myself for years, with the excitement and buzz. Big mistake.

So, I believe, if you are willing to look at things differently, especially in relation to what everyone else is doing, you might just be surprised some day at what you can achieve. You do not need a BA, Phd or any other initial after your name to be successful at trading, but you do need common sense and also need to understand that it is very hard to learn to do what others are not doing. Everyone, of course, is entitled to their own opinion, and I do not mean to offend or cut anyone down - why should I!

CYOF

coreilly1

Hey all,

I'm interested in this debate and want to learn more about trading and stocks.Are there websites to explain trading to novices and how to get into it?

Cheers

RainyDay

Hi CYOF - Remember the original query was from a post who had €6k to invest and no prior stock market experience. You can't seriously be recommending day trading as a solution in such circumstances? And are you going to take up my suggestion that you post your trades for the last month or so - that way we can all bask in the glory of your success ;-)

defiantshrimp

CYOF wrote:

The main point that I am trying to make, is that an individual can be a successful trader, if he/she is willing to commit to learning what they need to know. Unfortunately, this is very hard for most people, as almost everyone want's the easy way out - most people want to make money without any effort. CYOF

Most people want to make money without any effort?! Everyone does! But that is another matter. You think that there is some sort of method to consistantly beating the market. That method is called LUCK, plain and simple. B******t you can rack up returns of 1% a day due to your skill. And B******t that experience will help you beat the market. The stock market may be a game of probabillities as you said but the problem is neither you nor I nor anyone know the probabilities.

In order to make extra returns (that is returns that are greater than they should be for your level of risk) there must be consistent mispricing in the capital markets. I’m not saying the markets are perfectly efficient but I am saying that they tend that way and that there is no sure way of knowing at any moment something’s intrinsic value. But assume you are right and that there is some systematic flaw in the way the market prices stocks/commodities/whatever and you decide to exploit it. In order to do so the following must hold true (a) you must be the only trader in the universe to notice this flaw or at least the first to exploit it (b) this pricing flaw must be of a large enough magnitude for you to be able to profitably exploit after transaction fees/taxes/etc (c) this flaw must eventually correct itself for you to make money (d) this must happen regularly for you to make your fantastic 1% a day returns.

This is quite frankly unlikely to happen since there are thousands and thousands of traders just like you out there. As I’ve said before the only people who consistently make returns from day trading are the brokers! Put your money where your mouth is and take up Rainyday's challenge

nesf

defiantshrimp wrote:

And B******t that experience will help you beat the market.

Personally, my view is that experience can help a person limit their losses. Not necessarily make more profitable trades. It isn't guaranteed and experienced people do have bad days where they lose a ton, but in general experienced traders are the ones who can consistently limit their losses enough to make a decent return on average.

CYOF

It is a pity that all you guys can't start a sensible debate. NESF, at least, replies with sensible comments.

In case you have not noticed, coreilly 1 is actually interested in learning some more info about trading. He is not interested in my returns, or any one else's returns. He is interested in information. Coreilly1, if you want some free info send me a mail to cyof@bluebottle.com, and I will send you some good trading educational material, free of charge.

It is evident that rainyday and defiantshrimp have very little experience with either daytrading, swingtrading, or any type of trading! If they did, they would have some idea of what I am talking about. On the other hand, they may work for some financial institutions, who, of course, are all experts at textbook trading. The sooner one realises that trading is all about human behaviour, and then the sooner one will begin to see things differently. I can say that, because I have gone through it the hard way, and it cost me a lot of money before I realised that the only way to really learn, was to look at things from a different perspective, in other words, don't do what the majority are doing.

You guys might want to try and post some questions that make people think, "Hey, this might be interesting" instead of bickering like old women. I mean, really, can someone be so naive to think that anyone would post their personal financial details on the net, to people that they don’t even know!!!

If anyone is stupid enough to think that they will make a lot of money from trading, without putting in the time and effort that is required to learn, then they are in for a big surprise. I have said this several times in previous posts.

Just because someone post a lot of comments on a board, does not mean that they have detailed knowledge of what they are talking about.

I have no intention of bickering like an old woman, I am sure we all can listen to that at home if we so desire:)

OfflerCrocGod

CYOF wrote:

Just because someone post a lot of comments on a board, does not mean that they have detailed knowledge of what they are talking about.

So true.

RainyDay

It's a little bit rich for you to accuse others of bickering when you're the only one to stoop down to personalised slagging. The classic snake-oil salesman technique of 'you must be too dumb to understand me' doesn't work either. The emperor has no clothes. I don't know who you think you're kidding with your 1% per day returns, but you're certainly not kidding me.

fintan

Im with RainyDay, CYOF postings seem like a lead into some sort of pyramid scheme / selling of some trading system

If you want to get rich quick send me 50 euros and I will gurantee eternal happiness with my new system...... happiness guranteed or double your money back!

defiantshrimp

CYOF wrote:

The sooner one realises that trading is all about human behaviour, and then the sooner one will begin to see things differently. I can say that, because I have gone through it the hard way, and it cost me a lot of money before

I'm not going to get into a personal argument with you despite what you may like. It is obvious trading is all about human behaviour. But so what? I can't predict human behaviour. Can you? What makes you so special? That is my point. It can't be done.

And until you can show us these 1% returns a day by posting your trades before the fact, why should we believe you? Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence.

CYOF wrote:

I realised that the only way to really learn, was to look at things from a different perspective, in other words, don't do what the majority are doing.

BTW what sort of psychobabble is that? Look at things from a different perspective? How exactly? That reads like a self help book. Also not doing what the majority are doing and making money from it requires a few things. Firstly you must know what the majority are doing. If you do, please tell me. Secondly the majority must be wrong, always. Granted they sometimes are, but it is foolish to think they are always wrong.

CYOF

You guys really don't read the posts correctly.

No.1 - I never promised anything to anyone, or never will for that matter.
No.2 - I am not trying to prove, or disprove anything. I am stating facts based on experience with full time trading for 1 year - after 5 years part time experience.
No.3 - I never mentioned selling anything to anyone, nor am I asking anyone to join a club like the TICN do.
No.4 - I have no intention, and never will have any intention, of posting any personal information on any board.

Why do you guys not address my comments on trading? I have mentioned some proven techniques that put the probabilities on your side. Forget about the returns and the 1% per day. Ask about the trading techniques, what type of equipment setup you need, how much does it cost, who are the best brokers, how much capital do you need, how much study time do you have to allocate, how much money do you require to spend in order to learn - I can go on, but I think that is enough.

People who are interested in learning want to read about what it is like to trade the markets, what basics you need to learn, and what pitfalls to watch out for, etc.

The money will follow after the experience is gained - but as I keep saying most people want money without any effort. One person replied earlier that this is normal, and I would say yes, it is normal, that is why there are very few people that can trade and make up to 500 - 1000 dollars per day. It takes a lot of hard work and dedication to get to this level of returns from trading. You might win one or two big ones, but I personally prefer to look at been able to make 500 -1000 per day, on average.

Again, just in case you all think I am not in touch with reality, you will not win every day - anyone who has ever traded will tell you that - and on bad days you need to stop if no opportunities are presented. This is when your broader knowledge of the markets is useful, as on these days when stocks are not moving, options on commodities may be worth looking at. Another important fact is to learn one type of trading first; trying to concentrate on several types of trading instruments at the one time will lead to nothing. Like any job, master one task and then move on to the next.

CYOF

defiantshrimp

CYOF wrote:

Why do you guys not address my comments on trading? I have mentioned some proven techniques that put the probabilities on your side. Forget about the returns and the 1% per day. Ask about the trading techniques, what type of equipment setup you need, how much does it cost, who are the best brokers, how much capital do you need, how much study time do you have to allocate, how much money do you require to spend in order to learn - I can go on, but I think that is enough.

Ok, tell us about some of these "proven techniques" and we will comment on them.

AndyWarhol

Anyone ever use www.bullbearings.co.uk? It's a really good way of playing for real with monopoly money. It's tied directly to the London stock exchange, plus it's free!

air

Hi all,
Sorry to drag up the thread, I decided it was under a month so went for it.

CYOF, I was just wondering what broker you would recommend for $4 trades?
I was considering going with thinkorswim.com as I've heard good things about them on elitetrader.com.

Finally, how would you consider this strategy.
Up until now I have been following the Buffet style trading philosophy of buying good companies at the right price and holding for the long term.
I made approx 14% in 2004 doing this and didnt take any major risks. I didnt trade at all this year as I didnt have any free cash.

Anyway the strategy is this:
Continue to buy aforementioned good companies at a good price and aim for say 10% per annum doing this.
Sell covered calls each month on options that value the stock at greater than the end of month target value.
Three possible outcomes.
1. The arse falls out of the stock
I've no downside protection so I'm screwed, however this is highly unlikely due to company selection (hopefully )

2. The stock price does not reach the strike price by the end of the month and the option expires worthless.
I'm still happy to keep my long position because I want to own the stock for the long term anyway so I'm not too worried about 1 bad month, however I've also got the premium from selling the call which I can now bank.

3. The stock price exceeds the strike price at the end of the month. In this case my shares are bought off me at the strike price so I at least make my target return for the month + I get the premium on top. The only downside is the limited upside which shouldnt be a massive factor when trading on large companies with big capital employed.
Now I can either reinvest in the original company, or purchase another similar stock if the original is no longer good value.

Any comments appreciated.

dunkamania

I like it.

Where do you get your end of month estimate values from.

How do you determine if a company is good.
Do you use broker estimates,technical analysis,fundamental analysis or some other method.

air

Well say that I was hoping to earn 10% per year, then my target would be roughly .85% per month.
Lets say 1.1% per month to account for trading fees etc.

I would be proposing selling covered calls intially if they are available above this rate (this is going to depend on the volatility of the share in question of course).

As for determining whether a company is good or not, I would first of all discount brokers and technical analysis.
The former has ulterior motives and while the latter may have value for short term predictions etc, IMO any insights gained from technical analysis are more closely related to human behaviour than the true value of a company.

I would be mainly going on the Buffet style principles as I had mentioned, buy a good company that you understand at a good price.
We're talking pretty blue chip operations here that have predictable earnings etc. Ryanair is a company that i have made money on. I spotted a company that had a market capitalisation that was not much more than its true value in cash reserves and assets, it had strong management and good cash flow so I bought it. A while later the market woke up and the price rose by about 20%.

As you can see we're not talking 1% a day stuff here but the risks reflect this.

fintan

Just out of curiosity Air, have you actually priced the trading strategy you propose?


You propose to sell covered call options, so you need to obviously be perfectly hedged in the underlying stock, will your broker recognise the hedge or will they charge you serperate margin on each leg of your position?

You will be receiving premium, but the amount should reflect anticipation about price moves which will affect your strategy as it should negate any potential profit, also by re-striking at the end of each month you churning more trades which increases your costs.

How much margin will you have to put up? any collateral? trade charges? stamp?

Im guessing that your strategy while possible would not be viable for a small investor, but I really do hope you prove me wrong

cheers

Fintan

air

Hi Fintan,
Thanks for the input, after all I'm only thinking out loud on this one.
The strategy relies on trading in the US or a similar location where there is no stamp duty to be paid and trades can be made for well under $10.
www.thinkorswim.com is the broker that I am considering using at present, they have been around for a few years & have got lots of happy users on the elitetrader.com forums.

The broker would recognise the hedge and would not charge margin. At present trading on margin is not something I would consider, I dont see why anyone does it tbh, there are much cheaper forms of credit out there where you retain much more control over the terms of the loan.

I agree that the premium will reflect the anticipation about the potential price move, however AFAIK the majority of options expire worthless so it follows that every month call options are available on shares at strike prices that they never meet (in that month obviously, and not EVERY month of course).

fintan wrote:

How much margin will you have to put up? any collateral? trade charges? stamp?

Margin - None
Collateral ? I'm not sure what you mean here, the collateral would be the money which I'll be investing in the underlying share anyway.
Trade Charges - They're pretty low in the states, see optionsexpress.com, thinkorswim.com etc etc.
Stamp Duty - AFAIK this doesnt apply when trading foreign companies on a foreign trading account.

Capital Gains - I'd just be paying this at the end of the year the same as here.

I reckon its doable if there's any truth in what I've said above.

RainyDay

Don't forget that if Revenue here deem you to be trading for a living, you will be subject to income tax (not CGT) on your gains.

air

RainyDay, LOL, I think I'm safe enough at my level of gains
Incidentially I think people get too carried away worrying about tax implications. I for one am happy enough to pay taxes on profit. If you're making big profits then thats the time to worry about minimising tax liability etc, but its not something I'd look at as a major negative, its just something to be dealt with.

On a related point I'd love to know how the revenue would decide that it was your full time job.
IMO if you have a full time job earning a salary then you should only pay CGT on any gains outside of this regarless of the proportions (salary:capital gains).
I wonder if the revenue share my opinion?

suttlem

try hoodless brennan uk for trades at £7.50 0nline.
contact www.HoodlessBrennan.com
it works and YOU get the profit
suttlem

nesf

suttelm, link to the site not to an email addy please

fintan

Air I still think you should do up a mock trade to check all pricing implications.

For example, the money could be sitting in a rabobank / northern rock account earning 3% with zero risk, so you aim of 10% is actually only 7% above the risk free rate.

So taking that you invest 25k your 10% target means a potential of 2,500 profit, but this is only 1,750 more than what you can get with rabobank (Im ignoring DIRT for the moment)

Is 1,750 enough reward for the time that you will spend working your strategy and the amount of risk you are taking?
What if it all goes pear shaped, can you take the financial loss?

If trading in the US how will your strategy deal with fx moves between Euro / USD ?

Im still not convinced about your strategy, it sounds to good to be true, which send little alarm bells ringing in my head.