The Saturday Thread

Crumbs · 24-09-2005 12:22pm #1

My five for today...

Greenslades - 3:00 Haydock
If Bygone Days is a 7/2f then this should be a similar price but instead it's ~14/1. Form ties in nicely with the fav and I expect a good run. Being drawn in the middle is the only negative.

Alexandrova - 3:05 Newmarket
Whoosh! A very impressive run in her maiden last time and although it's tricky to compare her form with the English runners, I'm willing to take 5/2 that she's top class.

Material Witness - 3:40 Newmarket
Looks to be coming back to form after being gradually dropped in the weights this year. Good draw and interesting that Dettori is booked to ride. He's the master of setting the right pace on a front-runner. I think 20/1 (33/1 on betfair) is too big a price.

Mayonga - 4:15 Fairyhouse
Some smart form in her three runs to date without winning. Trainer in good form. If she goes to 5/1 or bigger, she's an each-way cert. I think she only has Anna Karenina to beat.

Rakti - 4:20 Newmarket
A few mills of rain yesterday leaves the ground at "good" but it's been drying out since, so I don't think that will be an excuse. Once he seems to be relaxed in the parade ring and behind the stalls, then I'll be putting my money down.

Recommended stakes - Sell everything you own, remortgage the house. auction the kids on ebay, then put 20% on each horse.

iloveireland · 24-09-2005 12:30pm

Crumbs wrote:

My five for today...

Greenslades - 3:00 Haydock
If Bygone Days is a 7/2f then this should be a similar price but instead it's ~14/1. Form ties in nicely with the fav and I expect a good run. Being drawn in the middle is the only negative.

Alexandrova - 3:05 Newmarket
Whoosh! A very impressive run in her maiden last time and although it's tricky to compare her form with the English runners, I'm willing to take 5/2 that she's top class.

Material Witness - 3:40 Newmarket
Looks to be coming back to form after being gradually dropped in the weights this year. Good draw and interesting that Dettori is booked to ride. He's the master of setting the right pace on a front-runner. I think 20/1 (33/1 on betfair) is too big a price.

Mayonga - 4:15 Fairyhouse
Some smart form in her three runs to date without winning. Trainer in good form. If she goes to 5/1 or bigger, she's an each-way cert. I think she only has Anna Karenina to beat.

Rakti - 4:20 Newmarket
A few mills of rain yesterday leaves the ground at "good" but it's been drying out since, so I don't think that will be an excuse. Once he seems to be relaxed in the parade ring and behind the stalls, then I'll be putting my money down.

Recommended stakes - Sell everything you own, remortgage the house. auction the kids on ebay, then put 20% on each horse.

who would be your main pick.

Crumbs · 24-09-2005 12:47pm

Hrmm, I'll nap Alexandrova and make Greenslades my NB.

masterK · 24-09-2005 1:03pm

My best bets for today are:

4:50 Newmarket: Element of Truth NAP

Element of Truth has the perfect profile for this stage of the season, lightly raced, open to improvement and well handicapped I can't see anything getting close to him today. Was beaten only two lengths by Nufoos last time out off level weights, yet receives nearly a stone from Nufoos today. He beat Echo of Light on his debut, that form looks excellent after what Echo of Light has achieved since.

3:05 Newmarket: Nasheej

With Alexandrova unproven out of maiden company it may prove wise to go with Nasheej, she's won 3 of her 4 starts two of which have been in group races, including a course win. The ground should be ideal.

3:00 Haydock: Bygone Days

Made a good return from a break to finish a respectable 6th in the Ayr Gold Cup, should be sharper today and goes off the same handicap mark in what looks a weeker race.

fade2black · 24-09-2005 1:06pm

A few Each Way selections to start with

Smokin Beau 3:00 Haydock- Has won better races than this already this season and he's down to an unbelievably low mark so at 20-1 there's value there for a possible big run. EW 3rd 25-1

Moayad 3:40 Newmarket - Another that's forecast to be 25-1 and over but a big run would not be a surprise. Rattled off a number of wins on the all weather surface but then ran a blinder in the victoria cup back in may. A tough race today but another who is on a decent mark and a big run should be on the cards. EW 2nd 10-1

Dubawi - I had a dream last night that I had a threesome with two women and we all backed Dubawi. We took a break to watch the race and he delivered in fine style. That should be all you need to know. If not, then you must know that Dubawi is a class animal and when he has ground with a little bit of give in it (the ground is described as good today but it won't be anything like the firmer ground that Rakti needs). I think he'll win today and I think that Mullins Bay will be as much of a danger as Rakti and Starcraft. 2nd 6-4

Act Friendly 4:05 Haydock - All newcomers from Godolphin have to be respected but this one was highlighted in a stable tour at the start of the season and wouldn't have to be a major star to take this one. UP

masterK · 24-09-2005 1:17pm

Had a small bet on Moayed myself, it was put up by Pricewise so the best price you'll get is 12/1. It came out well on my ratings. Here they are:

ALL IVORY 37.9
MOAYED 35.6
PARTNERS IN JAZZ 34.1
LES ARCS 34.1
PAPER TALK 29.3
PANGO 26.4
KING MARJU 25.6
KENMORE 20.5
LEO`S LUCKY STAR 20.1
SEA HUNTER 18.7
KING HARSON 18.2
VISIONIST 17.9
NOTNOWCATO 16.3
HAUNTING MEMORIES 14.7
MATERIAL WITNESS 13.9
HARVEST WARRIOR 13.4
PSYCHIATRIST 12.1
SECRET PLACE 4.3

It's pretty tight between the top 7. My main bet in this race will probably be on Partners in Jazz although it's hard to be confident.

fade2black · 24-09-2005 1:23pm

Didn't even look at pricewise today...feck that so....the value just jumped out the window.

Crumbs · 24-09-2005 3:12pm

1st

masterK wrote:

3:00 Haydock: Bygone Days

3rd

fade2black wrote:

Smokin Beau 3:00 Haydock

4th

Crumbs wrote:

Greenslades - 3:00 Haydock

In a 16 runner race. And very close to being a 1-2-3.
Is this the best tipping forum or what?

fade2black · 24-09-2005 3:14pm

haha...we'll have to make this forum subscription only soon enough

masterK · 24-09-2005 3:49pm

masterK wrote:

Had a small bet on Moayed myself, it was put up by Pricewise so the best price you'll get is 12/1. It came out well on my ratings. Here they are:

ALL IVORY 37.9
MOAYED 35.6
PARTNERS IN JAZZ 34.1
LES ARCS 34.1
PAPER TALK 29.3
PANGO 26.4
KING MARJU 25.6
KENMORE 20.5
LEO`S LUCKY STAR 20.1
SEA HUNTER 18.7
KING HARSON 18.2
VISIONIST 17.9
NOTNOWCATO 16.3
HAUNTING MEMORIES 14.7
MATERIAL WITNESS 13.9
HARVEST WARRIOR 13.4
PSYCHIATRIST 12.1
SECRET PLACE 4.3

What about that for ratings, the first two in the correct order. And the first 4 were all in the top 6 in my ratings. Of course I backed Partners In Jazz, also had a small ew saver on Moayed so should break even on the race.

fade2black · 24-09-2005 3:50pm

Nicely done MasterK.

CiaranC · 24-09-2005 3:55pm

Feel free to keep posting your ratings MasterK

masterK · 24-09-2005 4:06pm

The only other race I produced ratings for was the 4:50 at Newmarket. Here they are:

ELEMENT OF TRUTH 46.2
FAVOURITA 42.3
SALAMANCA 39.4
NUFOOS 38.2
WINDS OF TIME 28.5
CLINET 25.2
JOINT ASPIRATION 24.6
STRAWBERRY DALE 23.8
DISCUSS 22.6
DELPHIE QUEEN 22
BRINDISI 21
UMNIYA 15.9
CAVERAL 13.1
LADY GEORGINA 12.9
PARK ROMANCE 9.5
ROYAL ALCHEMIST 8.9
GREEN NOON 5.6

Looks like the top 4 are the ones to concentrate on.

fade2black · 24-09-2005 4:25pm

Starcraft wins. To be honest....my heart was ruling my decision there...on strict form lines involving whipper and a couple of others, Starcraft was the one to beat. Ah well.

masterK · 24-09-2005 4:29pm

For once Phillip Robinson got it wrong tactically. He was trying to be too smart bringing Rakti up the middle of the course to avoid the pace maker.

iloveireland · 24-09-2005 4:57pm

masterK wrote:

My best bets for today are:

4:50 Newmarket: Element of Truth NAP

Element of Truth has the perfect profile for this stage of the season, lightly raced, open to improvement and well handicapped I can't see anything getting close to him today. Was beaten only two lengths by Nufoos last time out off level weights, yet receives nearly a stone from Nufoos today. He beat Echo of Light on his debut, that form looks excellent after what Echo of Light has achieved since.

3:05 Newmarket: Nasheej

With Alexandrova unproven out of maiden company it may prove wise to go with Nasheej, she's won 3 of her 4 starts two of which have been in group races, including a course win. The ground should be ideal.

3:00 Haydock: Bygone Days

Made a good return from a break to finish a respectable 6th in the Ayr Gold Cup, should be sharper today and goes off the same handicap mark in what looks a weeker race.

franky franky franky very dissapointing

masterK · 24-09-2005 5:00pm

Shocking ride by Dettori alright. It was like he was trying to find trouble. Not one of his better days after getting it so wrong on Dubawi.

Morgans · 24-09-2005 5:30pm

Rakti not good enough over a mile. Especially on ground that not rock hard. No excuses. He wouldnt have won had he raced up the rails either.

The Saturday Thread

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