Hamilton 2:40

fade2black

I got into an argument recently with a fellow who berated me for taking miles travelled into consideration when selecting horses. The man wouldn't let me speak and narrowly avoided a smack that is usually deserved for such arrogant people. I was going to wait til he had an inevitable stroke before I made my point but instead took some of his medicine and just butted in. "I look at everything", I said, "form is at the top of the tree for me. I'll look at every horse in the race and look at the race they ran before this one, and the one before that. I'll look what jockey the trainer has booked and the one he booked before that. I'll look at the ground. I'll look at the weather. I'll look at why the horse underachieved last time. I'll look for holes whilst also trying to fill them in. I'll try, to the best of my abilities, to find out what the horse had for breakfast."

It's probably become obvious by now that I'm a fan of the godolphin operation. They love their horses. True they're a business operation but I truly believe money is relative to them and it's the horses that come first. And boy do they know their horses. Tomorrow they send Cartography up to Scotland. I'm not quite sure of the statistics but I haven't seen them send many up that direction. Cartography's form doesn't exactly shine like a beacon but it seems that this horse, who they had high hopes for, has had his excuses and after a break if they are willing to send him as far away as Glasgow then maybe we should follow them...with our wallets anyway.

Aquos76

You might be onto something there okay F2B. Lets hope that your theory come up.

Morgans

There's a reason that he is running at Hamilton. He's not that good. It is interesting that Dettori is bothering his arse to go up there to ride. (given that he doesnt fly) He may be good enough to win this race, but Godolphin are pretty much desperate for any victories at the moment. Ive seen them increasingly run horses at courses you wouldnt normally associate with them this year, and still get beaten. Cartography was beaten at Hamilton last year for instance.

In my list of things to take note before a race begins, miles travelled to the course would be well down on the list, but occasionally it does have some bearing.

masterK

It was in this race last year that Cartography ran, also there £12K for the winner which for any trainer is a reasonable prize on a Monday, especially since Bin Suroor will be trying to finish as high up the trainers championship as possible.

As for miles travelled, it can be important depending on the trainer. Rooftop Protest was a prime example on Saturday.

Morgans

The market is the biggest if not the only relevant factor when it comes to rooftop protest. Gambles pulled off at both Galway and Market Rasen this summer. Decent horse.

Backing James Lambe's horses on the basis of miles covered could be an expensive business, and the closest course to Peter Bowen's yard is Wexford. It does have some bearing sometimes, but I think its far more worthwhile to concentrate on the trainer's record at the course. B Palling at Chepstow for instance.

fade2black

Morgans wrote:

The market is the biggest if not the only relevant factor when it comes to rooftop protest. Gambles pulled off at both Galway and Market Rasen this summer. Decent horse.

Backing James Lambe's horses on the basis of miles covered could be an expensive business, and the closest course to Peter Bowen's yard is Wexford. It does have some bearing sometimes, but I think its far more worthwhile to concentrate on the trainer's record at the course. B Palling at Chepstow for instance.

It's just another thing to consider Morgans, along with everything else.

scojones

Morgans wrote:

There's a reason that he is running at Hamilton. He's not that good. It is interesting that Dettori is bothering his arse to go up there to ride. (given that he doesnt fly) He may be good enough to win this race, but Godolphin are pretty much desperate for any victories at the moment. Ive seen them increasingly run horses at courses you wouldnt normally associate with them this year, and still get beaten. Cartography was beaten at Hamilton last year for instance.

In my list of things to take note before a race begins, miles travelled to the course would be well down on the list, but occasionally it does have some bearing.

Desperate for winners? I don't think so mate. The horse is traveling 700 miles and is the only Godolphin horse racing today, I don't think they would take the horse that distance if it wasn't in with an extremely good chance, and Frankie is on it - one of his two races today.

You can't say the horse is crap, it has only had one run this year, who knows how its training has went. Frankie has raced on this horse once, and in that race it came second in a class 1 over this distance and was only beaten by a head.

I will definately be betting on it today.

Morgans

Dont mistake this as having a go at you fade2black, but from the general gist of what you have posted, I take it that you see it as a positive when a horse is sent a long distance by a trainer to take in a race. In general, there is something in that, but I'm sure you realise that many horses dont like travelling.

I didnt say that he was crap sjones. I dont think if ever referred to a horse as such, and while he had decent form in the past, he was maybe Listed class, from what was expected of him when third at AScot last year, he has been disappointing since, including in this race last year, where the 100+ rated horse beat a 85 rated animal by 1/2l. He looks on the downgrade to me, and connections are looking for a confidence booster. He'd have to go close in this company but he wouldnt be one for me.

fade2black

Not at all Morgans. Everyone has their own way of finding winners. As I said in the original, light hearted, post form is the top of the tree and below that there are different trainers that can be followed for different reason. I think hints should be followed whereever possible i.e with jockey bookings, engagements, and yes distance travelled...the cost of sending a horse all the way to Germany for instance which is something that Mick Channon often does, is exorbant and you have to believe that stables like this don't do it for nothing. These little hints are helpful ways to cement your choice in horse, they're not sole reasons to back a horse.

Morgans

And remember that its the owner and not the trainer that will finance the horses shipping. Same should be remembered when horses are supplemented for races. Godolphin are sending Dettori to Hamilton as punishment for the ride he gave Dubawi at the weekend. THat's my new theory, and I'm sticking to it.

sector

Good theory & I love it but aren't those bookings made a certain amount of time before the off, so Frankie would have been pencilled in before his "mishandling" of Duwabi

Morgans

10.30 yesterday.

fade2black

Morgans wrote:

And remember that its the owner and not the trainer that will finance the horses shipping. Same should be remembered when horses are supplemented for races. Godolphin are sending Dettori to Hamilton as punishment for the ride he gave Dubawi at the weekend. THat's my new theory, and I'm sticking to it.

Lol I love it.

You were right to go against this one anyway...didn't run well at all. Godolphin seem to have gone for quantity this year and after that run it does look a bit like desperation to be honest. They really have been so unpredictable this year.

Morgans

They have had horses lose at Folkestone, Thirsk, Brighton, and now Hamilton in the last two weeks. If it wasnt for Shamardal (for whom M Johnson deserves a lot of credit, and the less said about them trying to get the horse to run in the Kentucky derby the better) and to a lesser extent Dubawi their season would have been a disaster. If it were O'Brien, there would be plenty questioning his position as trainer.