Picking winners in Jump racing

masterK

With the National Hunt season upon us I thought It might be worthwhile to start a discussion on backing horses in jumps races and how we go about picking them and what factors we consider in this selection.

It would be interesting to get inside peoples heads and see their thought process and how they come to a conclusion on a horse for a specific race.

The Obvious factors that everybody considers are the ground, the horses form and distance. Which is most important and why? Personally I find it very difficult to back a horse that is not in some sort of reasonable form. As for the ground I feel it's importance grows as extremes in going are reached. i.e. heavy and firm ground.

I'm really interested in hearing peoples thought on the not so obvious factors. Let me start by discussing course form, does a horse having form over a certain course really matter? And if so how much? Is it more important than having a good jockey? Does it matter over hurdles or just in chases? What if a horse has won over course and distance in a hurdle race and is now running in a chase, is the hurdle form of any revelance.

How important is the jockey really? Are you not better off backing a horse with a 7lb claimer on board instead of a top jock?

What about the type of fences? IMO it's an importand factor that most people give little or no thought to. Poor jumpers can look good over easy fences. With a course with stiff fences it's always worth steering clear of dodgy jumpers.

Another factor that I consider is course direction, some horses just don't handle left handed courses and others right handed courses.

What other doctors do you consider? How about ratings? There are two categories of ratings form (such as the Racing Post Ratings) and speed (such as topspeed).
Does anybody use speed ratings for jumps racing and if so why? Personally I don't and can't understand their use, maybe somebody disagrees. As for the Racing Post ratings I find them pretty good for jump racing, especially chasing. I've recorded the performance of the top rated RPR over the last month or so. In 142 races the top rated horse won 38 times recording a level stakes profit of 4.25 points.

As I said I've started this thread in the hope of generating a discussion on backing horses over the jumps season, maybe we can all pick up a pointer or two or may come discover a factor that never even crossed our minds as important.

fade2black

I haven't got time at the moment to list a detailed answer but I will get around to it...

I'll just add this for now - the other day in the naps competition I staked a 4pt win on Tommy Carson...my reasoning was simple, he never runs a bad race at plumpton. There really is a case for horses for courses, and there may be more than just the obvious physicality reasons why a horse likes a particular track. It is always worth while going back through the form and seeing if there is a particular venue that a horse does well at.

masterK

I would agree with that for Chasers, a lot of chasers have preference for certain courses or for certain type of course. I think it's usually a less important factor for hurdles since the obstacles are pretty standard in size, however on stiff tracks such as Cheltenham course form is of definite importance.

scojones

Hello masterK, this is indeed a great thread, and I do not aim to answer most of these questions as I'm on a study break and needed to wind down - so what better way to do it than thinking about horse racing!

I think from your post you have made the most fundamental obstacle to picking winners in any race, be it jump or flat, and that is the more you study a race, the more variables you have to consider, making the overall choice very hard. Also, as you have quite rightly questioned, how do you weigh one variable against another?

I think it's better if you pick a number of variables, and just go with them. You will not win every race, but your results can be more consistant. Now I'm not saying pick 1 or 2, you certainly have to take all of the obvious into account, with 3 or 4 extra. I feel that is enough.

masterK wrote:

I'm really interested in hearing peoples thought on the not so obvious factors. Let me start by discussing course form, does a horse having form over a certain course really matter? And if so how much? Is it more important than having a good jockey? Does it matter over hurdles or just in chases?
How important is the jockey really? Are you not better off backing a horse with a 7lb claimer on board instead of a top jock?

The horses form over a course does matter, and whether it matters more than having a good jockey on board really depends. For instance, did the horse have a top jockey when achieving the good form on said course? Were there any top jockey's in those races where your horse reached it's form? If so, how did their horse perform and why?

The importance of the jockey depends on his record over the course, and his current form. If the jockey has just come back from a serious injury from a fall over hurdles and this is his/her first race, I would not back it. I would wait to see how he/she performs in the first couple of races -- if they do well or they don't seem to be holding back then I'd consider following the jockey.
As for following a claimer vs top jockey, you have to take the horse into account there. If it's a horse that has been on the improvement with a mixture of top jockey's and bad jockey's, and it has a claimer on board I would definately consider going for it. I would have to see the form of the top jockey it is up against, plus the horse that top jockey is on, plus the trainer's form.

This is all I can answer for now as I should get back to studying. If I haven't gone into enough detail for you, or you would like examples feel free to ask and I'll post them over the next couple of days when I'm not so busy.

Cheers.

Morgans

Its probably the best question that has been asked on the forum. I have said this before, winning at horse racing is down to a relatively simple formula. if you know what is the best form for each horse, and you know how likely it is to run to its best form on any given day, you can pick the winner of most races. Doing so, however is very difficult.

To know what form (rating) a horse is capable of meeting, the best guide is the formbook. To know what are the chances of the horse running to its best rating, all manner of variables come into play. Course, ground, distance, jockey, draw, weight, number of runners, pace etc

To get back into the original question - with regard to jumping, a lot of the time the important thing to remember is rhythm. As jump races are all over 2m+ it is important that horses travel within thier comfort zones. Big striding galloping horses like the long straights of places like Doncaster, Ayr, Newcastle, Haydock, etc, while nippier short striding horses like undulating tight tracks. It is important that any horse jumping fences is allowed to get into a rhythm jumping. Horses that are running as quick as they can - maybe at a distance short of their best - are constantly 'on their head' or flat out, and it increases pressure on their jumping, leading them to make more mistakes. The same thing happens heavy ground horses on good ground. In heavy ground, slow paces allow poor jumpers to lose ground at thier fences, but regain it on the flat.

In hurdles its not as important but the pace in the race and the ability for the horse to travel - within his comfort zone - off that pace is probably the most important factor.

it is the rhythm of the grand national that allows many horses whose optimum distance is less than 3m on standard courses to run big races - Simply Gifted last year (and Liberthine next)

When selecting winners, the only way to do so consistently is to picture the race unfold in your head, and pick out the horse that finishes first.

Jockey is important but not critical.

masterK

Morgans, I agree with you on Jockeys, I think it is a factor thats importance is overstated. I have been going through an excercise over the last month or so of recording the proven attributes of all Jumps winners. I've recorded the jockey, the horses previous recent form, previous record on the ground, course etc. What I have found in a sample of over 140 races so far that only around 40% of the winners have been ridden by jockeys that I would categorise as the top 20.

Obviously the jockey can be the difference between winning and losing in many races, we've all seen McCoy pull something extra out of a tired horse to win a race. I remember reading an article stating that in a race on a straight forward course when the field is not too big the difference a jockey makes is usually quite small and that you may well be better off choosing a decent claimer over an established jockey.

In bigger field the jockey is a more important factor where having the horse in the right place at all times is of critical importance.

Pace is another factor that is probably not considered by people as much as it should, quite often cagey small fields with little or no pace can lead to some shock results. Another article I remember reading provided an excellent analogy to pace. Imagine if you and Linford Christie race flat out in a race over 100 metres, think of how far he would beat you by. Now imagine you raced him again over 100 metres, however this time you both walked the first 90 metres the sprinted the last 10. Would the distance he beat you by in both races be the same. The answer, No Why? Because the pace was different in each race.

fr wishy washy

In most large field novice hurdles (there are loads during the year) particularly in Ireland I avoid the Fav if he's making his debut (over jumps)thats if there are a lot of the other horses with outings under their belts in the same race.

The Fav is usually underpriced based on his/her flat form and can often find the hurly-burly of a 27 runner novice a daunting task first time of asking.
Novice hurdlers tend to improve after a couple of outings and often the fav gets turned over through inexperience rather than ability.

Remember Istabraq's debut ?,turned over by the more experienced Noble Thyne.

This is just an observation based on going to and watching mostly Irish jump racing and is not based on fact.

Morgans

I'd guess that in every open professional race, the jockey makes a crucial differnce 1 in every 20 times, I'd guess. Having JP Magnier on board didnt stop Rhinestone Cowboy from beating Rooster Booster at Aintree and Iris's gift at Punchestown. However, it is still reassuring when your selection is ridden by someone like Ruby, Timmy Murphy or Carberry. I think both Geraghty and McCoy are vastly overrated. Its 95% horse and 5% jockey IMO.

scargill

Morgans wrote:

I'd guess that in every open professional race, the jockey makes a crucial differnce 1 in every 20 times, I'd guess. Having JP Magnier on board didnt stop Rhinestone Cowboy from beating Rooster Booster at Aintree and Iris's gift at Punchestown. However, it is still reassuring when your selection is ridden by someone like Ruby, Timmy Murphy or Carberry. I think both Geraghty and McCoy are vastly overrated. Its 95% horse and 5% jockey IMO.

Think you are being very harsh on McCoy and Geraghty. We've all seen races where McCoy practically carried the horse over the line himself. His change of stable last year didnt work as smoothly as hoped but I never have any problem backing a horse ridden by AP (or Barry G for that matter).

Agree with most of what has been said above - very interesting stuff.

At this time of year I tend to go for the fit horse. Backing odds on favourites with their first run for 6 months is far too risky. (over 1 million bet on Kicking King on Betfair yesterday :eek: )

Morgans

McCoy is probably the best rider of bad horses that we have seen. He bullies horses, makes up their minds, but the actual effect he has is not altogether clearcut. Adrian Maguire did the same when he started out (a superior jockey to McCoy, never champion, but faded after a series of crippling falls) and David Bridgewater. Throwing the kitchen sink at horses is the stuff that most journeymen jockeys can do - Roddi Greene being a fine example. I've been going through my head for a horse that McCoy carried over the line - usually you need to have a willing horse, in fact I have noticed that in the past couple of years, the effect isnt as noticeable - the horse gets the McCOy treatment but doesnt win. The best example of McCoy carrying a horse over the line in a big race was Liberman in the Champion Bumper a few years back. He made sure the horse won the race, but he also made sure that the horse was never the same again. All potential gone really. Timmy Murphy rode the horse to win a lowly handicap hurdle at Market Rasen last year, and it was probably the best Ive seen on any horse. Brilliant preformance on a hurt animal, who has never got over the hammering he took that CHeltenham. Something similar could actually be said about Pizarro after Spencer rode him in the Champion Bumper and I would renege at punting on Missed That after Ruby carried him over the line last year. John Francome is reputed to be the best jockey ever, he was notoriously weak in a finish. I can barely remember Francome riding - I do remember getting his autograph years ago as a chisseler - but Dunwoody and Walsh are masters of the art.

Geraghty gets out of trouble because of the horses he is one. Last year he nearly threw away the King George, the Pierse Hurdle, and the Aig hurdle with mistakes at teh last. Essex and Kicking King got him out of trouble both times. Rallying when they really had no right to from their mistakes. He is a cocky little prick who thinks he is the bee's kness because of Moscow Flyer - who lets face it makes his blunders at crucial moments also - but he wouldnt lace Walsh's, Murphy, or Carberry's boots. He is invariably jocked up on one of the favourites and wins his share of races, but I dont know if it that he panics under pressure really, but he throws away more races than he should.

Redlancer

I dont agree with McCoy been overrated this is the man that on Deenos Beeno beat the great Baracouda in the long walk hurdle which was some achievement.Also he time his run very well on Well Chief to win the Arkle from Kicking King two years ago.But for me the one day that showed me how good McCoy was last year at Punchestown in the saddle on Brave Inca struck for home Macs Joy and Harcihbald all over him looked beaten but yet got Brave Inca going again to win it which was really something.He was the difference for Brave Inca who missed out on so many times earlier last term.

Morgans

Some very fair points Redlancer, and I admit that the vast majority of punters out there think that McCoy, or the Champ, is the best around. He is a very driven man, and someone that doesnt tire of riding winners at plumpton on a monday or cheltenham on a saturday.

I dont think that there was any special expertise brought to Deanos Beano's win in teh Long Walk. Baracouda was (and I know this is a little controversial) always a little overrated - ironically enough based on his win over DB in the previous year's LW. DB was very good when in the mood, usually first time out, and even when he wasnt in the mood - more often than not in his later years, there was nothing McCoy or any jockey could do to get him to put his best foot forward. DB won that day more due to a poor ride given by T Doumen to Baracouda, and to me a little that Baracouda wasnt all that he was cracked up to be then. (He travelled much sweeter for some reason the following season throughout his races, before then it was often the case that he was showed along midrace.) Many people thought that with T Doumen off an AP McCoy on, Baracouda would improve last season, in contrast to the jockey who knew teh horse intimately, Baracouda struggled to beat Crystal D'Ainay twice last seaosn (rule supreme being slightly unlucky in the LW) and failed to beat INglis Drever at Cheltenham.

Many people hope the same improvement hoped for Baracouda last year will be brought about in Brave Inca this season. I think its one of the reasons why they are sticking to hurdles with the horse. Yes, AP is great in those situations, a la Brave Inca at Punchestown last year, but you have to remember that it was Harchiabald that he was up against, who is notorious for his lack of battling qualities. Had it been Conor O'Dywer on Hardy Eustace, i dont know if it would be evidence of the jockey's superiority over the others. I would have Carberry, although defeated that day, ahead of McCoy in terms of ability. However, make no mistake, McCoy is an improvement on Barry Cash, and that may have been the difference. Brave Inca is a horse that needs a lot of rousting throughout a 2m race.

As for the Well Chief race. If teh race was run tomorrow, all horses being fit and well, Well Chief would be odds on, even with Kicking King in the field. He was entitled to win that Arkle.

I'm not saying that I am right and that those who think McCoy to be the greatest jockey of all time - the impression you get sometimes from watching racing on the box - are wrong. I think becuase of the number of winners he has ridden, he will be remembered far longer than the likes of Carberry, Murphy, and Walsh, who to me are better pilots. I think McCoy is fourth best on the list behind those three and ahead of Geraghty, but its only my opinion.

Redlancer

In terms of style I think Murphy and Carberry are the best around.Watching Murphy beat Kicking King on Hi Cloy a few years ago was one of the best rides I have ever seen.There are other good jockeys though and its all perference.I know I will anger alot of people but I am not a fan of Ruby Walsh like what you say about Barry Gegarthy he gets to ride for two of the most powerful stables in Ireland and England so I would not go over the top.I think my top five riders would read

McCoy
Murphy
Carberry
Johnson
Fitzgerald

and I was always a fan of Baracouda.Last two years beaten by two very good animals in order of merit Inglis Drever and Iriss Gift who I rate very high.In the champion hurdle last year not much between Brave Inca and Hardy Eustace and I just think McCoy could make difference if on board

masterK

It's interesting to hear the vastly different opinions of jockeys, personally I find Ruby Walsh top of the tree, he seems to always know exactly the right time to deliver a horse to challenge. I would still rate McCoy, even though his agressive nature can sometimes backfire on horses. I'd also put Richard Johnston and Carberry up there among the best.

I have never been Timmy Murphy's greatest fan, I think he is too fond of deploying an exagerated waiting tactic, he quite often leaves horses with too much to do, he sometimes even deploys this tactic on horses that need to be ridden close to the pace.

I'm surprised nobody has mentioned Graham Lee, he is another that has improved a lot over the last number of years.

Of the younger generation I quite like Brian Harding who looks to have a bright future ahead of him.

masterK

For those of you interested in ratings for National Hunt racing I have recently completed a study of races to assertain the profitability of the Racing Post Ratings (published in the racing post next to the horses details). In a sample of 267 races over the last few months backing the top rated RPR would have yielded a profit 44.25 points to a single point stake, which is a return on investment of 17%. That is a hugely impressive return on backing free ratings blindly, I doubt even the expensive paid for ratings such as Timeform and Superform would come close to that.

This figure includes all races types where an RPR figure is available for each horse, if you were to stick to purely handicaps the return on investment would increase to 23%.

It's probably something that most people would never pay any attention to but from my sample it looks like it could be a very useful asset to any punter.

I plan to check again on their performance in about a month or so when the season is in full swing.