Why no alternitive

padser

I am a young voter. I have always hated the corrupt machine that is FF. My natural instict would be to vote FG....not necessarily because i believe they are better....they simply havnt been in power enough to be quite as corrupt.

However I am quite right wing and would not do anything to aid a left wing party like Labour get even a sniff of power.

Therefore it looks like my choices to vote are limited to FF or PD. (Simply to ensure FG/Lab coalition doesnt get in)

Do other potential FG voters feel annoyed at this?

RagShagBill

You could always voice your annoyance by voting for nobody, by simply spoiling your ballot. Or vote PD and give them more power within the FF/PD coaltion.

netwhizkid

padser wrote:

Do other potential FG voters feel annoyed at this?

Well for certain and sure i am heck annoyed at your atrocious attitude to this can't you see Right wing politics is ruining Ireland, if you are a person that thinks Immigrants are a big problem (which could explain your right wing tendencies) There was never many immigrant here until Right-Wing Politics took over in 1997. If you are a capitalist who wants a race to bottom, and won't be happy until every one owes about €1million debt and every thing including government is privatised i tell you this, Get a life, remember at the end of the day there's no pockets in the habits and i have yet to see a hearse with a tow-hitch. Left Wing politics are what the doctor ordered for Ireland and i as a young voter The next election will be my first vote, or any referenda between here and then. I will vote left wing, Giving my preferences to labour, Fine Gael, Sinn Fein (they are lefties too!) I will vote in such a way that it will do every thing to ensure giving harney and bertie the toe up the h*le. Left wing leaning independents will also be considered as they could be potential, proper uppers for the Rainbow Coalation 2.0. i would consider the greens but they don't operate in my constituency that i know of anyway, and i don't know they're policies.

RagShagBill wrote:

Or vote PD and give them more power within the FF/PD coaltion.

oh yes please all voters do this and ensure mass internment and moving Ireland to the Far-Right and down the road to Fascism. I say this with honesty as bad and as corrupt as Fianna Fail are the country would be far better off if they got the single party majority last time round as they were never like this i actually admire some of their pre-pds work, but when those tramps came along it made sure the whole works got a lorry load of spanners thrown in. PD= Progression to Dictatorship.

We as citizens of this great country have a duty to do and that is make sure that the Pds are not in the next election, Ideally a Rainbow Coalition, but if worst come to worst a Sinn Fein/ Fianna Fail Coalition would suffice. It would at least put manners in those loyalist upstarts, and no Fianna Fail right wing leaning would be tolerated because SF are highly socialist.

Young people i call you to revolt against FF + the PDs peacefully using the biro as your sword and use it to vote these incumbent as*h*les out.

Viva le Revolution

netwhizkid

netwhizkid wrote:

Well for certain and sure i am heck annoyed at your atrocious attitude to this can't you see Right wing politics is ruining Ireland, if you are a person that thinks Immigrants are a big problem (which could explain your right wing tendencies) There was never many immigrant here until Right-Wing Politics took over in 1997.

I admire your enthusiasm. But while I could start nit picking about so much in your post, I'll confine myself to this.

The initial poster didn't say anything about immigrants. I consider myself right wing, hence I have a laissez faire attitude to markets and workers - I think the borders should be completely opened up and there should be complete freedom of the individual to move in the interests of competition and market forces. I would contrast that with strong left wing policy - take Communism in practice where pretty much noone could enter Eastern Bloc countries and pretty much noone could leave (I appreciate that there may be a valid distinction between left wing policy and the policies of Communist contries). So I don't buy the point that being right wing means being anti-immigrant at all.

Furthermore, I would echo your point that immigration only started in 1997. Possibly because until FF and the PDs got in, this was such a stagnant backwater of an econemy that noone in their right minds, even those fleeing serious persecution, would have landed here... Are you sure there's not a PD voter in you just bursting to get out, because you makes the right noises?!!

mike65

netwhizkid wrote:

Well for certain and sure i am heck annoyed at your atrocious attitude to this can't you see Right wing politics is ruining Ireland, if you are a person that thinks Immigrants are a big problem (which could explain your right wing tendencies) There was never many immigrant here until Right-Wing Politics took over in 1997. If you are a capitalist who wants a race to bottom, and won't be happy until every one owes about €1million debt and every thing including government is privatised i tell you this, Get a life, remember at the end of the day there's no pockets in the habits and i have yet to see a hearse with a tow-hitch. Left Wing politics are what the doctor ordered for Ireland and i as a young voter The next election will be my first vote, or any referenda between here and then. I will vote left wing, Giving my preferences to labour, Fine Gael, Sinn Fein (they are lefties too!) I will vote in such a way that it will do every thing to ensure giving harney and bertie the toe up the h*le. Left wing leaning independents will also be considered as they could be potential, proper uppers for the Rainbow Coalation 2.0. i would consider the greens but they don't operate in my constituency that i know of anyway, and i don't know they're policies.

oh yes please all voters do this and ensure mass internment and moving Ireland to the Far-Right and down the road to Fascism. I say this with honesty as bad and as corrupt as Fianna Fail are the country would be far better off if they got the single party majority last time round as they were never like this i actually admire some of their pre-pds work, but when those tramps came along it made sure the whole works got a lorry load of spanners thrown in. PD= Progression to Dictatorship.

We as citizens of this great country have a duty to do and that is make sure that the Pds are not in the next election, Ideally a Rainbow Coalition, but if worst come to worst a Sinn Fein/ Fianna Fail Coalition would suffice. It would at least put manners in those loyalist upstarts, and no Fianna Fail right wing leaning would be tolerated because SF are highly socialist.

Young people i call you to revolt against FF + the PDs peacefully using the biro as your sword and use it to vote these incumbent as*h*les out.

Viva le Revolution

Where to start, firstly you are making one hel of an assumption about the politics of the OP - I'm reasonably rightwing on economics which is why I welcome every immigrant we can get! Maybe padser thinks likewise (though he may be a Nazi for all i know).

One presumes you feel left wing politics is what the doctor ordered on previous occassions and look where that got us.

10% inflation as a norm, 15% unemployment rates, 130% debt-to-GDP in darkest days. It took the PDs to turn Irish politics round so it was facing into reality rather than trying to spend its way out of trouble (hence the 35% standard rate income tax etc) as for the facist nonsense you spout
the "old" FF was far more "facist" than the current generation who had to learn some table manners so they can be in coalition government. Cast your mind back to the Men in Mohair Suits - they were a far nastier bunch then any of the current FFers (Liam Lawlor was proberly the last of that mentality). Haughey and most of the crowd were pretty damned disreputable bunch and they did'nt mind who they trampled over, including there own to stay in control of the party and that includes issuing death threats during the 1982 heave against Squire Hockey.

As for that bastion of liberal socialist democracy, Sinn Fein..well spare me!

Mike.

ps

Get a life, remember at the end of the day there's no pockets in the habits and i have yet to see a hearse with a tow-hitch

WTF?

Mike, I echo much of what you post.

You just gotta be quicker on the draw!!!

mike65

He he! I would have beaten you by two mins but I have UTV DNS issues which cause a 4 min dead period at 20 mins past the hour. Must find an alternative DNS...

Mike.

Thomond Pk

Mike,

The origin of the PD's is well known and their agenda made a lot of sense at a particular time given the financial melt-down that had been in full swing from 1980 to their inception in 1986.

The first administration tried to hire their way out of recession by bloating the civil service with politically motivated appointments.

The second fell for imposing tax on childrens shoes

The third FF administration becuase their Sinn Fein The workers Party bedfellows pulled the plug.

The fourth fell because FG called time on Labour's failure to recognize the findings of an economist intelligence unit's report.

Dessie O'Malley was a passionate man with unique policies and a team of young professionals who were going places.

Fast forward 19 years....

Everyone else bar Sinn Fein and Joe Higgins (in the Ranelagh branch of the Labour party in 1986) accept the core findings of Dessie's economic agenda.

Labour and Fine Gael have had a very good track record with the economy between 1994 - 1997, when inflation was at historical lows and growth was healthy but controlled.

As for the PD's; what is they stand for exactly?

Mary Harney is a tired minister who is being crucified in the Dept of Health

McDowell is at loggerheads with the police and crime is more prevelent now than it has ever been.

Tim O'Malley well he was elected on ther familly name as was Fiona who regularly comes out against party policy.

Martin Cullen I forgot he's now in FF

Noel Grealish; the reports coming from Galway are that his promises are getting more undeliverable every day. The Green party will take his seat next time out.

Tom Parlon; he would never have been selected by Dessie O'Malley; he is the type of politician that O'Malley left FF because of.

Ditto Mae Sexton a former Hospital canidate

Liz O'Donnell is about all that is left of the original PD ethos and the fact that she sits on the backbenches whilst Parlon and Tim Deloitte O'Malley hold office just about sums up what the PDs have fallen to.

The slogan in 1987 was 'Dessie can do it'

it is a pity about whats left

therecklessone

padser wrote:

I am a young voter. I have always hated the corrupt machine that is FF. My natural instict would be to vote FG....not necessarily because i believe they are better....they simply havnt been in power enough to be quite as corrupt.

However I am quite right wing and would not do anything to aid a left wing party like Labour get even a sniff of power.

Therefore it looks like my choices to vote are limited to FF or PD. (Simply to ensure FG/Lab coalition doesnt get in)

Do other potential FG voters feel annoyed at this?

You have at least one alternative to FF/PD, vote FG. That you do not wish to do that because of their alliance with Labour is your choice, but it doesn't mean that you haven't been presented with an alternative.

Might I suggest you vote for an independant candidate? Spoil your vote? Not vote at all?

Incidently, have you let your local FG representatives know how unhappy you are with their policy re. coalition with Labour?

mike65

Thomond Pk, I voted for the PDs in 1987, they had to be succesful to save us from the ancient regime. As for today you're right, the agenda has been taken on board by all except the various minor socialists and the Provos. I guess its hard to be in a state of permenant revolution but I don't see the PDs throwing the towel in unles they get voted out of exisitence. The current political statis leaves folk like the OP in a tricky position - vote FF to keep the left out or vote FG and get Labour free. The ideal for me is a FG/PD coalition but thats the least likely government (after FF/FG of course!)

Mike.

Thomond Pk

I know where your coming from the promise was to deliver sensible economic policy and eliminate corruption. They'd keep an eye on FF for us.....

They haven't done that; one only has to read David McWilliams to see how far wrong it has gone. Inflation, poor public services, massive capital overspends, chaotic planning, no functional urban transport systems.

They are tired and the influence of Sexton, Grealish and Parlon is an utter affront to everything that the founders of the PDs espoused.

I think Enda Kenny desreves a little more credibility for what he has done with FG; they are not desperate to stay in power to prevent Haughey from getting it like Fitzgerald was; ultimately proven right by Justices McCracken and Moriarty.

Bruton and Quinn was a fantastic partnership that delivered 7-8% economic growth per annum and sub 2% inflation. That was the period that led to the Tiger; the period since has been characterised by rampant inflation, undirected growth which is a shadow of what it was in 1997 and unbelievable government wastage.

I thought the PD's were there to make sure than only a 140,000,000 euro wasn't wasted. It has been a multiple of that each of the last five years.

It really is time for change and Enda is the boy to do it

Cronus333

mike65 wrote:

The ideal for me is a FG/PD coalition but thats the least likely government (after FF/FG of course!)

Mike.

Here Here to impossible goals! it could happen in a utopia of irish politics {which is fairly hellish at the best of times} but not now.
unfortunatly....

Nuttzz

netwhizkid wrote:

. It would at least put manners in those loyalist upstarts,

What exactly would they do to "put manners" on them?

FG/PD's would be ideal however failing that FF/PD is the best we have got

/me shudders to think of Pat Rabbitte as minister of high taxation...err i mean finance

mike65

mike65 wrote:

Thomond Pk, I voted for the PDs in 1987, they had to be succesful to save us from the ancient regime. As for today you're right, the agenda has been taken on board by all except the various minor socialists and the Provos. I guess its hard to be in a state of permenant revolution but I don't see the PDs throwing the towel in unles they get voted out of exisitence. The current political statis leaves folk like the OP in a tricky position - vote FF to keep the left out or vote FG and get Labour free. The ideal for me is a FG/PD coalition but thats the least likely government (after FF/FG of course!)

Mike.

Likelyhood is Mike with the current anti government feeling, that you will get an FF-SF government next time round.

Bertie was asked at the last interview I saw and he said no way.
But his answer became interesting when asked why now that arms are gone.
He said they've nothing in common and that they would want to change a lot of their policies.

Well thats leaving the door well open.
Always in a programme for government theres compromise on each parties agenda's.I predict a lot of wriggle room in SF's somewhat unrealistic policies to pave the way for propping up Ahern.
Then SF have achieved the goal of being in Government both North and south.
Do not underestimate the determination for this to become a reality.

padser

netwhizkid wrote:

, if you are a person that thinks Immigrants are a big problem (which could explain your right wing tendencies) .............. If you are a capitalist who wants a race to bottom, and won't be happy until every one owes about €1million debt and every thing including government is privatised i tell you this, Get a life,

Woohhh there horsey. Just calm yourself slightly and try actually *reading* what *was* written rather then what you *think* was written.

Isaid nothing whatsoever about immegrants.

Personally I welcome legal immegrants coming to Ireland with skills and who are willing to work. I do this not for any charitable nature but simply because i beleive economically we need them. If any of my generation wish to retire before we are 85 we need an influx of people to change the demographics of the country.

netwhizkid wrote:

,
There was never many immigrant here until Right-Wing Politics took over in 1997.

hmmm....1997.....hmmm...i cant quite remember what else happened around then when those terrible right wing policies started coming into force. Ah yes....that monster that was the celtic tiger was born. How we all hated actually having money, and jobs. Those were dark days Ireland all right.

thereckelssone wrote:

,
Might I suggest you vote for an independant candidate? Spoil your vote? Not vote at all?

Incidently, have you let your local FG representatives know how unhappy you are with their policy re. coalition with Labour?

I would be reluctant to spoil my vote or vote for an independent as this might enable labour to sneak in (in so far as one vote makes a difference).

No I havnt and I will.


And can I also just say to wizzkid "right wing" is not a dirty word. Its not "attrocious" and its certainly not irresponsible. If anything taxxing people to the point working hard and doing well for yourself is next to impossible is irresponsible and "attricious"

murphaph

I'm dreading the next election. It will be with a heavy heart that I vote. I have a handful of priorities. These are; the economy stupid!, Transport infrastructure (hey-I'm still young so hospitals and pensions aren't my thing just yet, though doubtless those priorities will change over time) and keeping the shinners out is still high on my agenda.

I like Enda Kenny. I think he's a pretty ordinary guy who is reasonably principled (for a politician anyway). I would vote for FG BUT Enda is on record as being firmly in favour of the entire WRC reopening and they have that awful Olivia Mitchell as their transport spokesperson. She knows little or nothing about the subject and has revealed this a number of times in articles and letters to the ed of the Times. This is worrying stuff for anyone who wants the national road & rail network improved and expanded, particularly us dubs who pay the lion's share of taxation yet still have exceptionally poor transport for a city of a million people.

I also believe that Pat Rabbitte is a nice, principled man, BUT he's a supporter of the militant unions in CIE and that does nothing for my confidence levels. He's one of those people that think CIE and AnPost are jobs providers as opposed to a transport provider and a postal services provider! Again, very worring. I don't maind paying slightly more tax for increased public services (I'm actually someone who leans left!), however I don't equate this with increasing my taxes and the taxes of those on minimum wage private sector McDonald's type jobs to pay some fat lazy DART driver over 48k a year for what is essentially unskilled labour (you get OJT of course-same as in McDonald's!).

So, when it comes downb to it, I will be voting FF with a heavy heavy heart. The 10 year transport plan to be announced on Tuesday will depend on those feckers getting back in to see it through. They are fault ridden but they have traditionally been the most pro-railway party on the island and that's saying something about the others. Once we have reasonable infrastructure in place I may change my voting tactics over the years but it'll be a cold day in hell before I give SF a preference. You think Rabbitte would hand your hard earned over to unionised semi-state and public service workers fast? You ain't seen nothin yet as they say. SF would bring economic suicide and no matter how much it pains me to vote FF I will do it in preference to SF. I often wish we had FPTP.

What would be interesting is a FF/Green coalition.

lostexpectation

And can I also just say to wizzkid "right wing" is not a dirty word. Its not "attrocious" and its certainly not irresponsible. If anything taxxing people to the point working hard and doing well for yourself is next to impossible is irresponsible and "attricious"[/QUOTE]


oh dear you sound like Liam Lawyer... or who that other guy up in front of the tribunals on corruption Denis O Brien???

Thomond Pk

Given the economic record of the FG/Lab coalition between 1994-97 the accusations of financial mismangament are farcical when compoared to

1> E-Voting
2> PPARS
3> Road schemes
4> The Health Service
5> The Cork Courthouse lease

The list goes on

The defining test for this government was what to with cullen after the Monica Leech episode. Bertie did nothing and Harney did less.

The electorate will punish them

Zaphod

murphaph wrote:

I often wish we had FPTP.

What would be interesting is a FF/Green coalition.

Dev also shared your disdain for PR-STV. In both 1959 and 1968, when FF wanted to change to FPTP, the plain people of Ireland told them to go jump.

Even in the extremely unlikely case that FPTP was adopted, it's unlikely to have quite the effect on SF as you wish. The majority of their votes and seats come from first preference votes. It's the second and third preferences that they have trouble attracting. Of course, FPTP would mean a permanent majority FF government, so any opposition party would be there merely for show.

And you could kiss the Greens goodbye under FPTP too.

padser

Zaphod wrote:

And you could kiss the Greens goodbye under FPTP too.

So it wouldnt be all bad then

Sand

Im afraid Padser that youre all out of luck when it comes to options in Irish politics. You got a somewhat center right coalition trying to drag itself back over the center into the left where it has company with pretty much everyone else. People these days seem to have no recollecton of the sheer mess this country was in thanks to half baked command economy, tax and spend left wing dogma.

The PDs are dissapointing, their basic economic policy is the most sound but the likes of Parlon are wasting our time and money with crap like that civil service relocation - which is justified for no other reason than except they can ( and this is a supposed "right-wing government", if this is right wing I live in terror of the fiscal responsibility of the left). I respect Harney for having the courage to take on Health, but no one can fix health, because health is never 100%. Even the much vaunted French and German systems arent good enough for the French and Germans. She and her party are effectively doomed.

Fianna Fail were never a party of the right. I dont know how McCreevy lasted there, but his exile is an example of how FF never shared his beliefs. Theyre currently angling themselves into an alliance with SFIRA, theyre not all that incompatible when you consider Berties comments on vigilante attacks back in the 1980s. I hope such a government doesnt come to pass as I simply wont be able to hold down my lunch when watching the likes of Minister for Justice O Snodaigh denouncing violence against women.

As for Fine Gael, the less said the better. Theyre just one half of Labour. The pairing that would make the most sense would be with the PDs but Irish politics is about which side you fought on in the civil war, not compatible policies. Id consider voting for FG if it wasnt a proxy vote for Labour, but until then Im in the same trap of non-representation as you: dont vote, or vote for two parties that dont represent your views but are simply less non representitive than the others.

Well for certain and sure i am heck annoyed at your atrocious attitude to this can't you see Right wing politics is ruining Ireland, if you are a person that thinks Immigrants are a big problem (which could explain your right wing tendencies)

oh yes please all voters do this and ensure mass internment and moving Ireland to the Far-Right and down the road to Fascism. I say this with honesty as bad and as corrupt as Fianna Fail are the country would be far better off if they got the single party majority last time round as they were never like this i actually admire some of their pre-pds work, but when those tramps came along it made sure the whole works got a lorry load of spanners thrown in. PD= Progression to Dictatorship.

Two things. Whats your definition of right wing that it matches a government that throws money away and (as in the case of the airport and cafe bars) represents unions, state enterprise and regulated entry to markets?

Secondly PDs=Fascism? FFS, do you know what facism is? The PDs are not even remotely fascist. Oh yeah, and the odd comment about the right and immigration - youve never heard of a nationalist socialist?

Thomond Pk

Sand wrote:

Im afraid Padser that youre all out of luck when it comes to options in Irish politics. You got a somewhat center right coalition trying to drag itself back over the center into the left where it has company with pretty much everyone else.

Only because the electorate have figured out that there is a very limited quality of life in this country. Child Care is not a left wing issue it is a quality of life issue along with transport and planning as the last two by-elections displayed clearly commuter land has had enough.

Sand wrote:

People these days seem to have no recollecton of the sheer mess this country was in thanks to half baked command economy, tax and spend left wing dogma.

Sand the alternative government in waiting left power in 1997 when growth was at 7% unemployment was falling like a stone and inflation was a lot lower than it is today. Housing was affordable and childcare was cheap. Huge job announcements were being made daily including most of the jobs that actually materialised in 1998-2000. The economy since 2000 has been heading slowly south; look at office and industrial property vacancy the economy now is only susrviving because of increased credit growth. After the suicidal SSIA gamble creates a massive short-term boom followed by another 1980-1994 type bust. It was domestic rates by FF in 1977 it is SSIAs in 2002 again by FF.

This country is sliding down every OECD and IMF table in some at an alarming pace.

Sand wrote:

The PDs are dissapointing, their basic economic policy is the most sound but the likes of Parlon are wasting our time and money with crap like that civil service relocation - which is justified for no other reason than except they can ( and this is a supposed "right-wing government", if this is right wing I live in terror of the fiscal responsibility of the left). I respect Harney for having the courage to take on Health, but no one can fix health, because health is never 100%. Even the much vaunted French and German systems arent good enough for the French and Germans. She and her party are effectively doomed.

Yes health is still a problem; with the amount of money that has been thrown at it we should have the best health system in Europe. The health system more than anything proves why this government needs to go, I wonder how much FF and the PDs received from Deliotte in corporate donations?

Sand wrote:

Fianna Fail were never a party of the right. I dont know how McCreevy lasted there, but his exile is an example of how FF never shared his beliefs. Theyre currently angling themselves into an alliance with SFIRA, theyre not all that incompatible when you consider Berties comments on vigilante attacks back in the 1980s. I hope such a government doesnt come to pass as I simply wont be able to hold down my lunch when watching the likes of Minister for Justice O Snodaigh denouncing violence against women.

Even worse it could be Martin Ferris who has actually been convicted; McCreevy's legacy will be

Dublin Central FF to Chris De Burgh
Dublin NE FF to Larry O'Toole
Dublin NW FF to Dessie Ellis
Dublin North FF to Claire of the SWP
Dublin West FF to Mary Lou McDonald

The probability after the election is that FF losses in the East region will be so severe that the only combination possible for FF will be with SF; thus making a vote for FF a vote Dessie Ellis or Martin Ferris as Minister for Justice.

Thankfully most of the FF losses in commuterland will go to FG and Lab.

Sand wrote:

As for Fine Gael, the less said the better. Theyre just one half of Labour. The pairing that would make the most sense would be with the PDs but Irish politics is about which side you fought on in the civil war, not compatible policies. Id consider voting for FG if it wasnt a proxy vote for Labour, but until then Im in the same trap of non-representation as you: dont vote, or vote for two parties that dont represent your views but are simply less non representitive than the others.

Given the condition of the economy in 1997 one can only presume that the Irish Labour Party did a new labour before Blair given the economic performance they delivered in no small way guided by FG.

Nuttzz

The SWP dont have a hope in a general election

Thomond Pk

2 seats look likely Dublin Airport is leading to some increasingly militant positions

Dublin West Hold
Dublin Nth Add

Personally I'd much prefer GV Wright to be replaced by FG but I don't see it happening

mike65

It was domestic rates by FF in 1977 it is SSIAs in 2002 again by FF.

I don't think the two can be compared (though only by accident) as the SSIAs' will be just what the economy needs come next year. Growth is going to be modest at best so a few billion to prime the tills will go down nicely.

Mike.

Cronus333

Any hope of getting rid of Eoin Ryan? please say he is vulnerable. or Ruari Quinn. Or John Gormly. I beg of you!!!!

therecklessone

Thomond Pk wrote:

Dublin North FF to Claire of the SWP

Seat transfer in Dublin North will be from Labour to Clare Daly of the Socialist Party (the SWP are a different beast.) Sean Ryan retires at the next general election, his brother Brendan will not be able to retain his massive personal voter loyalty.

Thomond Pk

mike65 wrote:

I don't think the two can be compared (though only by accident) as the SSIAs' will be just what the economy needs come next year. Growth is going to be modest at best so a few billion to prime the tills will go down nicely.

Mike.

The problem is that it will prime the tills at a time when retail inflation is already significantly ahead of the EU average. Now if the same money had been handed back through lower taxes or invested in a mix of areas such as Childcare, Transport and R&D the economy as a whole would have increased competitiveness and not have the burden of a further wave of avoidable inflation which will damage already falling productivity vis a vis our competitiors.

cronus333 wrote:

Any hope of getting rid of Eoin Ryan? please say he is vulnerable. or Ruari Quinn. Or John Gormly. I beg of you!!!!

Dublin South East will be one of the most interesting battles in the Country, none of the sitting TDs will be safe.

Eoin Ryan was shoved into to Europe by Bertie and should be safe he has a good constituency vote built up from 16 years of clinic work. 4/5 if he stands 7/4 if they parachute a personality in;of their sitting councillors Donnelly is too old and lost in 1981, 1982 (Twice) and 1987 and their South Inner City Councillor I don't know.

Michael McDowell is going to be under severe pressure as a result of his support for the Eastern Bypass and failure to block to Poolbeg incinerator. He has traditionally taken 50% of his vote from Sandymount/East Ballsbridge Evens if Ryan doesn't stand or 6/4 if he does

John Gormly is a poor parlimentary performer relative to his constituency work he will capitalise from McDowells woes on environmental issues. 4/5 will probably top the poll; Dublin SE has always had a higher than normal green vote

Ruari Quinn nearly lost out last time will benefit from his nephew Oisin's presence in the Rathmines area to compliment his own pembroke base. 4/6

Brian Gillen (FG) looks the part Evens probably at the expense of either McDowell or FF in the absence of Eoin Ryan

therecklessone wrote:

Seat transfer in Dublin North will be from Labour to Clare Daly of the Socialist Party (the SWP are a different beast.) Sean Ryan retires at the next general election, his brother Brendan will not be able to retain his massive personal voter loyalty

With the situation in Dublin Airport and GV Wrights crash FF will certainly not retain 2 seats in Dublin North. Claire Daly will take GV Wrights seat no question probably brought in by SF transfers. If Ryans seat is lost it will go to FG there were traditionally 2 FF & 2 FG seats in this constiuency; no rainbow seat here is not percieved to be likely.

therecklessone

Thomond Pk wrote:

With the situation in Dublin Airport and GV Wrights crash FF will certainly not retain 2 seats in Dublin North. Claire Daly will take GV Wrights seat no question probably brought in by SF transfers. If Ryans seat is lost it will go to FG there were traditionally 2 FF & 2 FG seats in this constiuency; no rainbow seat here is not percieved to be likely.

You can be sure Bertie will pull out all the stops to retain the airport vote for the next general.

Dublin North is going to be fascinating this time around. Clare Daly polled 5501 1st preferences in 2002 (quota was 8789), ahead of both Nora Owen (FG) and Michael Kennedy (FF). This time I belive Sean Ryan's vote will split four ways. Labour will retain 50%, and the other 50% will roughly split evenly between Clare Daly, Trevor Seargant (Greens) and FG's candidiate. Daly lasted until the last count in 2002, if she gets enough 1st preferences this time she'll get in.

FG are guaranteed nothing this time. The PDs are running a candidate for the 1st time, and they'll take votes from both FF and FG (anti-coalition vote). If FG win a seat, it will be the 2nd FF seat.

Thomond Pk

The one error you make in that calculation is that Bertie doesn't have any pulling power on the northside anymore. This once salt of the earth dub has been pandering to Dublin South East/Dun Laoghaire taxpayers and Mayo builders for far too long.

The fact that he allowed mama O'Rourke a key player in his government deprived the Northside of its Luas line and the meltdown in progress at Dublin Airport as well as significant job losses in Swords will be his undoing in Dublin North.

This will be mirrored right across the Northside

Dublin Central FF to SF
Dublin North FF to SWP possibly Lab to FG
Dublin North Central 4th Seat to 3 seater lost
Dublin NE FF to SF possibly Lab to FG
Dublin NW his brother to SF

5 seats will go and they will be the ones he took back mostly based on his personality; it will be virtually impossible for FF to take 2 from 3 in all but the most rural constiuencies this time out.

In Commuter Land the meltdown will be equally severe
With FF losing seats in Meath, Kildare South, Wicklow, Wexford, Carlow Kilkenny, parlon will go from Laois Offaly. Cavan Monaghan looks good for a FG gain. In Galway Grealish will go, in Cork South Central a seat will go, in Waterford SF look capable of an upset in Clare FG look good ditto Galway East.

therecklessone

Thomond Pk wrote:

The one error you make in that calculation is that Bertie doesn't have any pulling power on the northside anymore. This once salt of the earth dub has been pandering to Dublin South East/Dun Laoghaire taxpayers and Mayo builders for far too long.

The fact that he allowed mama O'Rourke a key player in his government deprived the Northside of its Luas line and the meltdown in progress at Dublin Airport as well as significant job losses in Swords will be his undoing in Dublin North.

Except the row-back has started already, with a DAA-built (and run if they're smart/cynical enough) 2nd terminal on the way instead of an independant cost-effective terminal. McCreevy is gone, and with him any chance of the radical reform of the airport that really threathened FF electoral support in Dublin North.

By the way, I live in the constituency and work in the airport.

Thomond Park wrote:

Dublin North FF to SWP possibly Lab to FG

I say again, for clarity or emphasis.

SWP

Socialist Party

Clare Daly is a Socialist Party councillor. The SWP do not have any TDs or councillors