Cancer... whats the chances?

DeVore

Can anyone give me rational... non-scare factor.... non-biased statistics on the likelyhood of contracting lung cancer from smoking?

Does your number a day affect the probability?

What ARE the factors involved.

Curious,

DeV.

nesf

Afaik smoking only increases the already present chance of contracting cancer (as in if cancer is in your familiy you already have a pretty high probability to start with). I'm not 100% on this tho, and I'm open to correction.

Personally the whole cancer issue doesn't bother me. I'm far more worried on it's short term effects such as poorer athletic performance, which can disincline someone to do exercise which is far more dangerous IMO.

MiCr0

have a read:
http://www.ash.org.uk/html/factsheets/html/fact04.html

as ever there isn't a definitive answer

Lung cancer

In 1999, 22% of all cancer deaths were of lung cancer, making it the most common form of cancer. Lung cancer is the cancer most commonly associated with smoking. Over 80% of all lung cancer deaths are caused by smoking. In 1999, 34,240 people in the UK died of lung cancer.[3] Mortality from lung cancer in men fell from around 880 deaths per million population in 1990 to 628 in 1999, continuing the downward trend since the 1970s, which reflects the fall in tobacco consumption in the male population. Female mortality rates from lung cancer are still less than half the male rates: 301 deaths per million in 1999. This rate has remained stable throughout the 1990s.3



One in two smokers dies prematurely: of these, nearly one in four will die of lung cancer. The risk of dying from lung cancer increases with the number of cigarettes smoked per day. (See also Factsheet 5 in this series, Smoking & Respiratory Disease). Smokers who start when they are young are at an increased risk of developing lung cancer. Results of a study of ex-smokers with lung cancer found that those who started smoking before age 15 had twice as many cell mutations as those who started after age 20.[4]



A recent study by Peto and Doll, examined the effects of prolonged cigarette smoking and prolonged cessation on mortality from lung cancer.[5] They found that if people who have been smoking for many years stop, even well into middle age, they avoid most of their subsequent risk of lung cancer. Also, stopping smoking before middle age avoids more than 90% of the risk attributable to smoking.

[3] CRC CancerStats: Mortality – UK. Cancer Research Campaign, June 2001

[4] More warnings given to teenage smokers. The Lancet April 17 1999. Vol353, p1333

satchmo

Originally posted by MiCr0
Also, stopping smoking before middle age avoids more than 90% of the risk attributable to smoking.

There's hope for me yet!

Cake Fiend

Give it up. I recently found out a friend (who means more to me than she even knows) has cancer, which prompted my present giving-up phase. I don't ever want to have to tell that to anyone who cares about me.

Bob the Unlucky Octopus

Here are the European-wide tables from the latest CHRO summit findings:

Men: Quitting before 40: No discernible increase in likelihood of lung cancer

Quitting between 40 & 50: 15% more likely to contract malignancies than if you didn't smoke. Ie- you might have contracted it anyhow as a result of other environmental influences (pollution, carcinogens in food, too much Barney on TV)

Quitting between 50&60: 45% more likely

Quitting after 60: 73% more likely


For women, the statistics are roughly the same, about 10% lower. Note, these are rough figures, and in no way dictate exact statistical likelihoods. In short, you're best off giving up as soon as possible, as it becomes progressively more difficult as one advances with age. These were mainly intended as a publicity stunt by the European health authority, to encourage some of Europe's 20 million young(under-40) smokers to quit.

I agree with nesf that it discourages physical exercise, though I've strangely found little hindrance from cannabis in that regard. Must be the analgesic effects working in my favor

Occy