Le Pen polls well in France Election

bugler

Story: http://www.guardian.co.uk/france/story/0,11882,688422,00.html

Extract:

In a result that plunged the country's political class into turmoil, usually reliable exit polls put Mr Le Pen's score at between 17% and 17.9% against Jacques Chirac's 19.8% to 20%. Mr Chirac's presumed rival in the May 5 runoff, his Socialist prime minister Lionel Jospin, polled between 16% and 16.5%.

"Ashamed, ashamed to be French" read the banner held aloft by one man rollerblading to join the demonstrators at Bastille and République. "This is worse than your foulest dreams," said Nicholas, 26. "We'll have to come together and fight now. Le Pen will not pass."

Socialists and conservatives alike described the result as "cataclysmic", "dramatic", "shameful", a "disgrace to French democracy" and "an outrage". Mr Jospin announced that he would retire from political life immediately after the May 5 runoff.

"I obviously assume responsibility for this failure and I will draw the conclusions," Mr Jospin said in a choked voice, calling the results a "thunderbolt". Mr Chirac, for whom re-election is assured, called on all French citizens to pull together to defeat the far-right leader.

"I call on all French men and women to gather up to defend human rights," Mr Chirac said. "Today, what is at stake is our national unity, the values of the republic, the very idea that we have of mankind, his rights and his dignity. It is the idea we have of France, of its role and its place in Europe and the world."

Unlikely he'll get any further, nevertheless, the far right will surely be heartened.

Edit: Independent lead with the story: http://argument.independent.co.uk/leading_articles/story.jsp?story=287507

sceptre

Part of the problem is Jospin's becoming a hate figure among the Trots for cuddling up to Tony Blair. Which is odd, really, given that Jospin is a former Trot himself. The amount of support running over to Arlette Laguiller and Daniel Gluckstein (as well as the youngster Olivier Besancenot) is seriously eroding Jospin's vote.

Add in the 5% expected for Robert Hue (leader of the Communist party) and Jospin is in serious trouble.

Another week and the poor man may be yesterday's news - faced with a position where Besancenot's supporters won't even consider him worthy of another ketchup-dousing.

bugler

Jospin IS yesterdays news. As per above : "Mr Jospin announced that he would retire from political life immediately after the May 5 runoff."

Beruthiel

I believe this is just a way for the French to show their dissatisfaction at the candidates involved and that it was really nothing more than a protest vote, he won't get any further than this.

OhMyGod

"I believe this is just a way for the French to show their dissatisfaction at the candidates involved and that it was really nothing more than a protest vote, he won't get any further than this."

Of course it is a way to show dissatisfaction. I am glad you said so.

There are 2 rounds in France. 1st one is to express your dissatisfaction by voting for 1 / 16 candidate.

2nd round is for choosing the president.
Polls already show figures that Chirac will win by 80 %, against Lepen 20 %


Jospin didn't have enough karisma to be a president anyway.

Criminality rate / insecurity + suburbs situation are the results of french politicians.

If you have seen the soccer match France - Algerie (match interrupted, people on the field making troubles etc + Jospin, as a spectator, watching the scene looking like he can t do anything) , well then if u remember that picture, you have the picture of France.


I stress the fact that there s nothing to do with racism, immigration ****e. If it would be the case, Lepen would win 2nd round by far.

The french system is shiete cause, you elect a president for 7 years, but after a few months, ther is a referendum and usually french choose an opposition. (?)
Result : u have a gov form right, and a president from left. Or vice and versa.
That means that there s no action taken.

it s time to change this system or ...

Sand

Taken by itself the Le Pen "win" might be just passed off as a blip or something. Worrying thing is right wing parties are making ground across Europe (Making gains in the netherlands and in german lander elections - russia is also spawning a neo - nazi movement in the most ironic of twists given the nazis views on the russians and slavs in general) and the opposition to Israel has allowed those with no interest in peace activism to engage in anti-semitic attacks across europe under a flag of convenience.

While its pretty certain Le Pen will lose the second round heavily (though maybe any "plots" to gang up on him might actually give him a sympathy vote he can use if not in this election, in the next ) there seems to be a general apathy for the way politics has gone across Europe - A center right and a center left party/coalition basically both trying to claim the middle ground with little or no room to debate because theres not all that many differences once you get under the PR. A similar disdain for "establishment politics" is behind a lot of SFs polling- theyre new, fresh, bold and who cares about their private army once they make the trains run on time:| I think its going to get worse before it gets better as people will increasingly turn to more extreme parties as they get increasingly disatisfied with the main parties complacency.

mike65

Yep , I'm with Sand on this, I'm Mr Middleground myself but I can see how "dismal consensus" can be a tyranny in itself to many who don't see a middle way offering a solution to thier problems
and so vote more less out of frustration and blind hope for a canditate or party that apparantly offers quick and easy solutions for them.

Mention of Sinn Fein causes me to partly hope they end up in government as the lustre of rebel politics will quickly rub off as they get compromised quick enough...and the same goes for other groups on the extremes, they're only any good in opposition.

Mike.

DadaKopf

When you consider that voter turnout in France was one in four voters, 17.9% is hardly significant as a sign for an increased support for far-right parties. The Front Nationale's vote tally was only slightly more than their last evection vote.

Clearly, the reason for this turnout is the fragmentation of the left-wing. I can only assume that this may have been avoided had the socialist parties updated their tradionally held beliefs to meet the demands of new economic and social conditions. But this leads the way to the same problem that's responsible for Le Pen's 'victory'.

Then whole problem is that parties have begun to move so close to the centre that there's hardly any differentiation between them and that means voters have no real choice. It seems to me that the reliance modernised parties have on focus groups has resulted in incoherent and misdirected policy. Not only are parties moving to the centre and becoming more homogenous but it's becoming increasingly difficult to know what they actually stand for, if they stand for anything at all.

So, it's no wonder that people are beginning to see more cohesiveness in the fringe parties' policies than the mainstream ones. They can afford to have cohesion. When there's little realistic choice and people feel alienated, they're going to make a choice to identify with something.

Top it off with the fact that some people feel that their national or local identity is under threat and throw in a few immig'ants and you have a scale that tilts slightly, ever so slightly, to the far-right. But it could tip over further.

The real trick for the French parties, and Europe in general, will be to modernise to maximise votes and push through good policy but to also avoid the inciherence of populist, focus group politics and to lock out right-wing politics.

Victor

Originally posted by Sand
A similar disdain for "establishment politics" is behind a lot of SFs polling- theyre new, fresh, bold and who cares about their private army once they make the trains run on time:|

Even when said private army had for a long time been preventing trains from running on time.

Hobbes

I think if the apathy party had run they would of got all the votes.

Lets hope the French are a bit more vocal at the main election (French who don't have an opinion! Who would of thought it!)

sceptre

Originally posted by Hobbes
I think if the apathy party had run they would of got all the votes.

Possibly - but the minute one of their number actually made an effort, he'd have to be turfed out of the party. That's the trouble with apathetic people and anarchists - very hard to get them organised.

Lets hope the French are a bit more vocal at the main election (French who don't have an opinion! Who would of thought it!)

Don't worry - they'll be well able to make snide remarks and be snotty to Americans in restaurants forever. Dammit man, that takes a lot of effort.