Electoral figures reflect growth in voter numbers in nationalist areas

Victor

http://www.ireland.com/newspaper/ireland/2002/0506/3892689209HM5NIPOP.html
Electoral figures reflect growth in voter numbers in nationalist areas
By Dan Keenan, Northern News Editor

Data showing increases in the electorates of nationalist-held constituencies and a decline in Belfast could bring fresh pressure for another boundary review in the North.

The figures, produced by the Electoral Office, and seen by The Irish Times, highlight growth in voter numbers west of the Bann and in mostly nationalist areas.

The census report is not expected until later this year, but an outline report may be made available to the Assembly before it rises for the summer recess in early July. That report could confirm that significant demographic changes are under way.

The size of the Catholic population, roughly one-third of the total after partition, could now be around 45 per cent or higher.

The data, comparing electorate changes between 1996 and 2002, show a population drift from Belfast to outlying areas. However, the increase in nationalist-held constituencies is much more marked than in those represented by unionists.

There are SDLP or Sinn Féin MPs in the first five constituencies with the largest electorate growths.

Some unionist areas have also seen rises but these have been around 5 per cent and below, rather than the figures of 7-8 per cent recorded in nationalist seats.

The sharpest rise was found in Mr Eddie McGrady's South Down seat which had an electorate of 69,035 six years ago and 74,935 this year, a rise of 8.55 per cent.

The next largest increases are in Mid-Ulster, held by Mr Martin McGuinness; Foyle, held by Mr John Hume; West Tyrone, held by Mr Pat Doherty, and Fermanagh-South Tyrone, captured narrowly by Ms Michelle Gildernew at the last Westminster election nearly 12 months ago.

The only nationalist seat dwindling in size is Mr Gerry Adams's West Belfast, where the electorate slipped from 61,344 to 58,901, a fall of 3.98 per cent.

All other declines are noted in unionist-held seats, the largest being in North Belfast which was gained by Mr Nigel Dodds of the DUP last June. It decreased to 59,653 from 65,411, a fall of 8.8 per cent.

Northern Ireland used to have 11 Westminster seats, giving it a constituency electorate average well above that in Britain. This was addressed in the mid-1980s and the total was increased to 17. However, continuing demographic change necessitated the creation of another seat, West Tyrone, in time for the British general election in 1997.

The current 18 seats are used for Westminster first-past-the-post elections and for Assembly elections, when they are all treated as six-seater constituencies under proportional representation.

At the last major boundary review there was significant pressure to cut Belfast's Westminster total from four to three. This was resisted at the time, but with population decreases continuing, there could well be renewed pressure for the city to lose a seat.

The electorate per constituency average is now 66,580, but some seats such as the Rev Ian Paisley's are much higher than this. The DUP leader now has the largest constituency with 75,635 electors and all the nationalist seats, with the exception of West Belfast, are above the average and rising rapidly.

The change in demographics is also clear in statistics for the North's 26 district council areas.

The Belfast City Council area has slipped by 8.71 per cent, the Castlereagh borough - which includes much of the city's eastern and southern suburbs - has fallen by 1.46 per cent and the neighbouring North Down borough has fallen marginally.

However, both Banbridge, Co Down, and Ballymoney, Co Antrim, are witnessing electorate rises of 9.56 and 8.71 per cent respectively. These are strongly unionist areas.

District council areas with nationalist electorates all report growth of up to 6.35 per cent.

mike65

Interesting but so what? Thats another country!

Mike.

Boston

could bring fresh pressure for another boundary review in the North

Back to the auld election riging i see

Victor

Originally posted by mike65
Interesting but so what? Thats another country!

And Israel isn't? Oh yeah, I forgot this was the Israel board.

mike65

Victor, that quip has flown right above my head!

Mike.

Victor

Originally posted by mike65
Victor, that quip has flown right above my head!

You 'complained' that I mentioned the internal politics of another country, but this is the politics board, so surely it is fair game.

Winning Hand

First thing that came to mind when I saw that is the scene from the meaning of life.
Dem catholics breed like rabbits

Victor

To a point it has more to do with higher migration out of the North by young, middle class protestants. Although babies do have an influence on the numbers.

Date		    1921	    2001
Catholic	   500,000	   767,000 
Protestant	 1,000,000 	   937,000 
Total		 1,500,000 	 1,600,000

Some information on http://www.statistics.gov.uk/downloads/theme_population/PT107.pdf
The above is indicative only as it doesn't take into account other groups (non-catholic and non-protestants), lack of coherence between religion and political affiliations and lack of exact statistical figures.

Elmo

Wouldn't it be better if you refered to people as Nationalist and Unionist rather the Catholic and Protestant as its how you vote that counts not your religion. there are many catholics that are Unionist and Many protestants that are Nationalist.

I didn't know that Northern Ireland Was A different country.

The tread relates to Politics and politics is also available in the North(but then its a foreign country what would i know).

bonkey

Originally posted by Elmo
I didn't know that Northern Ireland Was A different country.

Really? So its governed from Dublin now, is it?

jc

Victor

Originally posted by Elmo
I didn't know that Northern Ireland Was A different country.

I think it is fair to say it is a different country (but different to what?), however it is not a foreign country (as recognised by the Treaty).

Elmo

The culture in Northern Ireland is more like that in The republic so yes i consider it the same country.

Rubgy and GAA have nation and club/county team for All of Ireland.

Soccer is the only sport as far as i know that has a governing body in the north itself

Mary McAlleass (sorry for the bad spelling) is from the north as is dana and austin curry I am sure their are many other politicians from the north living and representing the Republic. Of course their are other nationalities also representing the republic which does make their countries part of Ireland, oh well ruining my own argument.

I consider every one on the Island of Ireland Irish, first and then if the want to consider themselfes british fine, but I wont consider them British.

Victor

Originally posted by Elmo
I consider every one on the Island of Ireland Irish

Even the British soldiers and civil servants? The tourists? The immigrants?

I think you are going over the line in deciding other people's nationality for them. Look at Korea, one nation, two countries.

sceptre

Originally posted by Elmo


Mary McAlleass (sorry for the bad spelling) is from the north as is dana and austin curry I am sure their are many other politicians from the north living and representing the Republic. Of course their are other nationalities also representing the republic which does make their countries part of Ireland, oh well ruining my own argument.

'Fraid so. All three are also from Nationalist backgrounds so might have something of an interest in regarding themselves as Irish.

Elmo

Even the British soldiers and civil servants? The tourists? The immigrants?

I consider the immigrants, Irish if they want to be. Some British Soldiers are Irish they just went over to Britian to becom soldiers (Dont associate with that kind, lol). My Sister is a civil Servant and is married to an Immigrant yeah i consider them both irish.

Whats wrong with civil servants. lol.

Elmo

I think you are going over the line in deciding other people's nationality for them. Look at Korea, one nation, two countries.

Emm isnt North and south Korea so because of line 52 which was put there by the americans, no pun intended but arent the americans going over the line in deciding other people's nationality.

As are the British with Ireland no. Most Unionist consider themselfs irish like most scottish consider themselfs scottish before considering themselves british. If they dont they are proably from wales lol.

Most Emipiral contries go over that line. France, Germany (They tried to exterminate most of their countrys people for the super race (arrian, spelling?) but then thats different.

I consider The USA an emipial country all but in name.