Euro / USD rate

helen_br

Where do you people think the euro's exchange rate with the dollar is headed? It is now over $0.91. Could it be headed back to parity within a few months?

sceptre

Doubt it stongly.

If concerns over the weakness in US equities recently haven't made any difference (and they haven't), I can't see any reason why the euro will come anywhere near parity with the dollar in the next six months. Not even to .95, but that's only my opinion.

Suggest moving this to business/economy?

helen_br

Originally posted by sceptre
I can't see any reason why the euro will come anywhere near parity with the dollar in the next six months. Not even to .95, but that's only my opinion.

Hmm... well it seems you were wrong, sceptre
€/$ Parity was reached today and it's difficult to see where the upward trend will end at the moment as confidence in US stocks and currencies are extremely low at present.

Lex_Diamonds

Everybody, DONT take share advice from Sceptre ok?

Shinji

I see Sterling/Dollar conversion is at about £0.64/$1 at the moment.... That's scary levels.

And I don't think the Dollar has finished falling yet....

chernobyl

The incredible strength of the sterling must really be hurting UK exporters.
The Euro will be the currency of choice soon*, so where does that leave the UK?


*soon has arrived.

sceptre

Originally posted by helen_br

Hmm... well it seems you were wrong, sceptre
€/$ Parity was reached today and it's difficult to see where the upward trend will end at the moment as confidence in US stocks and currencies are extremely low at present.

Be assured I've just played that "You are an idiot" flash movie to myself:eek:

Lex - I don't think sceptre should take financial advice from sceptre based on my initial post

Obviously the recent accounting revelations have made a difference (me: "If concerns over the weakness in US equities recently haven't made any difference..." - seems in the end they did, even though a lot has come out since my post) but I'll be making no more exchange rate predictions in the near future.

Bottom line:
sceptre was wrong. Do not trust this person with your cat

Bluehair

I think most commentators have admited for some time now that both the Dollar and Sterling are overvalued (esp the Dollar) and indeed the Euro is artifically undervalued so what we're seeing was I feel inevitable.

Sterling is between a rock and a hard place in terms of its' relationship with the Euro and possible joining with the Euro.

As chernobyl correctly points out business in the UK will be demanding a much lower entry point for Sterling to the Euro than present or else they'll be locked into a very tough position permamently.

However Joe Public will just see themselves getting less 'bang for their buck' on the continent (everything from wine to that nice apartment in Spain) and for the most part don't care/understand the needs of exporters!

Tonys got his work cut out for him..

Shinji

However Joe Public will just see themselves getting less 'bang for their buck' on the continent (everything from wine to that nice apartment in Spain) and for the most part don't care/understand the needs of exporters!

If people start losing their jobs over it, they'll understand soon enough.

mike65

Its interesting to hear the complaints/worrying here already about a "strong" euro when its still 17% below its float valuation.

Still if busineses calulate thier profit margins based on a particular, favourably exchange rate they are right to be worried...

Mike.

p.s. Whens the price of petrol/diesel coming down?
I saw 91c at one garage today.

Robbo

91 cent? That's insane.

In galway for the most part the diesel is around 72-75 and the petrol around 82 in decent petrol stations.

Stephen

Robbo i think its like that in most of the country. Here in Kilkenny petrol is 89.9c/litre and diesel is about 78.5c/litre.

helen_br

Originally posted by mike65
Its interesting to hear the complaints/worrying here already about a "strong" euro when its still 17% below its float valuation.

Well according to the BigMac barometer, http://www.oanda.com/products/bigmac/bigmac.shtml the euro has pretty much found its level now. I'm not sure how significant it is to measure a product usually made intra-state with local cows, but the euro-area average price of a BigMac is €2.57 compared to a US price of $2.54.

p.s. Whens the price of petrol/diesel coming down?
I saw 91c at one garage today.

You should count yourself lucky - UK prices were approaching 90 PENCE at one point, and in some obscure places as much as £1 per litre - that's €1.62 at the exchange rate back then - makes 91 cents seem cheap!

mike65

Originally posted by helen_br

You should count yourself lucky - UK prices were approaching 90 PENCE at one point, and in some obscure places as much as £1 per litre - that's €1.62 at the exchange rate back then - makes 91 cents seem cheap!

Your're right, I 'm being selfish! I just cast my mind back to when some discount places in the Wexford/Waterford/Tipp area were selling diesel for less than 40 Irish pence and that was only about 5 years ago!

Mike.

helen_br

Originally posted by mike65
Your're right, I 'm being selfish! I just cast my mind back to when some discount places in the Wexford/Waterford/Tipp area were selling diesel for less than 40 Irish pence and that was only about 5 years ago!Mike.

Presumably people in the North living near to the border get all their petrol in the Republic anyway as the 20p difference in price can more than make up for any petrol used to get there. One wonders why petrol stations in Derry & Newry etc. do any business at all...

sceptre

Originally posted by helen_br
One wonders why petrol stations in Derry & Newry etc. do any business at all...

There's a station outside Strabane right on the border only 200m from one on the Donegal side (I think Lifford is the town but I can't remember). Seems to do a surprising amount of business considering the distance to the cheaper station.

bobsmith833

Originally posted by sceptre
If concerns over the weakness in US equities recently haven't made any difference (and they haven't), I can't see any reason why the euro will come anywhere near parity with the dollar in the next six months. Not even to .95, but that's only my opinion.

Heh heh - look at the exchange rate now, Sceptre - €1 = $1.13 and £0.70 and it's still rising!

Incidentally, does anyone remember what the highest values attained by the euro immediately after its launch were? I seem to recall it was around $1.18 and £0.71 but I may be wrong...

sceptre

Originally posted by bobsmith833
Heh heh - look at the exchange rate now, Sceptre - €1 = $1.13 and £0.70 and it's still rising!

Just as well I abandoned becoming an accountant - this was going to bite me in the ass forever.

Of course, it's been ten months (not six):p

mike65

Originally posted by bobsmith833
Incidentally, does anyone remember what the highest values attained by the euro immediately after its launch were? I seem to recall it was around $1.18 and £0.71 but I may be wrong...

I think it briefly hit about $1.23 before it started falling back to earth....it may yet get back it that level the way it motoring at the moment. Then the EU can buy the USA and make the world a safer place!

Mike.

PhilipMarlowe

Oui. :cool: