Accounting for the huge Green seat increase

potlatch

Clearly, the Green Party has amazingly increased their Dáil presence this time around, to six seats. While their first preference vote increased by only 1%, their seat share has increased 200%. I expected them to do better this time around but not this well.

Has anyone any ideas why this has happened? What's changed? How have people's attitudes changed?

How significant do you think this Green result is?

shotamoose

They get a lot of second preferences, apparently. To be honest I think the Greens should seriously examine why their share of first preferences only increased by one percentage point after a campaign in which their central issues of public services, waste management, transport and corruption were fairly important and in which the main opposition parties were hopelessly ineffective.

Is there a case for saying that the Greens are only interested in chasing middle-class votes? As opposed to, say, Sinn Fein, who for all their flaws went out and listened to the less comfortably off, the economically marginalised.

mike65

While the leap in seats is notable its merely part of a wider trend both within Green politics and the drift away from the old favourites, which here means FF and FG, I think many view a Green vote as one that they can make with a clear conscience,
so they pick up votes not just from the left but the right too.

Its proberly also seen as risk free, that they won't do much damage if part of government, which is daft because of thier
socialist economics, and anti EU stance.

At the moment the anti-Sellafeild atmosphere is proberly helping too.

Mike.

nesf

To say that ppl are appeasing their social conciense is a fair point. But I do feel that there is a stronger wish to see green politics represented in Ireland, but ppl are not willing to put this wish ahead of what they either traditionally vote for or are happiest with this time around.

I'd personally like to see more green issues raised in govn, but I don't think I want the greens running it (not that this will happen soon or anything).

potlatch

I definitely think their huge increase in second and third preference votes has a lot to do with conscience voting, as some people said. And certainly, the Greens have to consider why their first preferences only rose by 1% but that's not to say that their getting 6 seats is any less significant. I think it marks an important, albeit somewhat latent, shift in people's attitude to politics. If they can capitalise on their opportunity this time around, they may very well pick up more first preference votes and more seats next time.

Nesf, I think you're exactly right; I think people do sense a kind of sterilisation of politics and feel a need for it to return to some kind of genuine roots, focused on real social issues and separate from 'civil war politics'. Everyone's talking of a political re-alignment in this country now (and it's about bloody time) but how far this is going to go is hard to predict.

I disagree you, though, on seeing any Green leadership; though they're definitely immature at the moment, they're clearly coming of age and, personally, I'd be more than happy to have a Green taoiseach in the near future.

Just another thought: what does anyone think the likelyhood of the Greens getting and cabinet seats!?

Hairy Homer

I would certainly agree that much of the Green's appeal is that of the safe protest vote: you don't care very much for either of the big two parties so who do vote for?

If you're in a working class sink estate in Dublin you might consider Sinn Fein, and a lot did. What do we middle aged middle class types do?

I'm forty plus
I live in Dublin 4
My kids have Irish names

What the hell do I want to vote for Sinn Fein for?

So I voted Green.

Mind you, Gormley is an excellent candidate: Very good on the ground and hardworking. And who could disagree with environmental policies anyway.

sceptre

Originally posted by potlatch
Just another thought: what does anyone think the likelyhood of the Greens getting and cabinet seats!?

Only if they're in government obviously. Which would mean FF making a coalition with them as opposed to the peedees.

The PDs know that to a great extent they were successful in the elections due to people seeing them as the watchdogs in a PD-FF coalition. If they fail to go into coalition with FF, they may lose seats next time. The PDs are therefore more likely to make sacrifices in their policies in order to go into government with FF.

Some of the Green TDs would rather bite off their arms than go into coalition with FF at the moment.

Quote in an email I got from one Green candidate:

"As for FF, I wouldn't cross the street to pi$$ on them"

Speaks for itself really.

Gael

You have to consider though, Potlatch, that that statistic of only a 1% rise in first preferences for the greens is inaccurate because you have to take into account that since they're so small and have limited funds(especially in comparison to Sinn Féin who get huge money from irish-America) they had to concentrate on certain constituencies where they had at least a chance.
There are 44 constituencies(or there abouts) and the Greens only ran in 31 of them, while the main parties and more than likely Sinn Féin ran in pretty much all of them whether they had a chance or not.
The fact is, whether or not, say, a Sinn Féin candidate gets whithin an ass' roar of getting a seat in a certain constituency, he's gonna get maybe 1,000 or 2,000 votes regardless, which knock up the national percentage of the vote for that party. There would have been a number of green voters in constituencies where they didn't wish to squander the party's scant resources on constituencies they hadn't a hope in hell of winning, and if these people had the chance to vote green it could have booted they national percentage numbers up considerably, despite them not getting anymore seats.
One piece of good news is that green TDs give 20% of their salary as a rule to the party. The salary is 70,000 euro, so after tax the party will have an increased income of tens of thousands of euros with the four new seats!
Also, and I think the once overtly idealistic greens have realised this, irish politics is fundamentally local, and no matter how honest or principled you may seem and how sensible your proposals are, if you haven't done the constituency work on the ground, you don't stand a chance. They've only recently copped this I think. It's what got Trevor to top the poll in Dublin North and what very nearly got Mary White in in Carlow Kilkenny, despite that constituency's image as being rural and conservative. That why Fianna Fáil always did so well and Sinn Féin are beginning to clean up too, they both have excellent grassroots constituency groups. If you get a green candidate who is an excellent constituency worker, they can clean up votes from people who don't even understand green politics. The same way specifically Martin Ferris and Seán Crowe, did so well on the basis of their constant constituency work, not because everyone who voted for them was a dyed in the wool republican.

Victor

Originally posted by potlatch
While their first preference vote increased by only 1%, their seat share has increased 200%. I expected them to do better this time around but not this well.

Part of it is that they were under-represented in the last Dáil, now they are marginally over-represented (based on first preferences). An analysis of lower preferences may reveal a strong swing towards them.

Chaos-Engine

Originally posted by Hairy Homer

who could disagree with environmental policies anyway.

George W Bush

Green

In response to how significant the Green result is and how it came about:

Its extremely significant in that it boosts our (I'm a Green) confidence and expectations and we'll really try and radicalise the Dail for the next five years.

We'll probably contest all constituencies next time out, and hopefully get a few more seats.

We'll be able to do a lot more research on our policies, so while our manifesto was very good in 2002, it'll be excellent for the next election. We'll become less associated with the environment solely.

Why it happened: Well, as has been said we realised how Irish politics works, and targeted 7 constituencies, 6 of which were fruitful. Mary White's performance was disappointing. Hopefully she'll run again.

We just came across as more serious to the electorate. And where we won seats, the candidates really worked their asses off.

Von

A couple of months before the election, I asked a top FF dude I know whether he was worried that the shinners and the greens might get a significant increase in support due in part to the rise in interest among youth in politics. He said he wasn't worried in the slightest cos the 18-25 age group just can't be bothered voting. They're barely a consideration. The shinners support he said, wouldn't translate into seats. Like everyone else we both thought the PD's were gonners. So it transpired that he was a bit out like.

I dunno if the Greens are capable of the dirty methods required to get anything done in politics. One of the reasons Fine Gael is knackered is cos FF made sure Jim Mitchell wasn't going to become leader. He's got a few skeletons in the closet apparently. And if the shinners are telling people that a vote for Frank "Fists" O'Reilly means that youth crime will be taken seriously *wink* like they did in my area then that sounds a more "realistic" and less preachy goal than the Greens ideas. The greens problem is that they have to convey a very unpalatable message in the least scary David Icke way possible. "You have to ride a bike in the freezing cold pouring rain, eat expensive food, risk putting yourself out of work etc or else we're all gonna die. It says so here."

All anyone else has to do is bribe people with drink, trinkets and cash. And some of us are actually looking forward to a Mad Max/Bladerunner cyborg infested apocalyptic future. The 6 o'clock news would be cool every day. In fact, I think we should consume much more of everything (resources, useless info, plastic food) to accelerate the process.

shotamoose

It obviously comes down to people thinking in terms of their long-term rather than their short-term interests. Something we in Ireland are not very good at. Neither, if you ask me, is it something that can be 'engineered' in society with any great ease. It'll take hard work and persuasion AND some general social shift I haven't quite worked out yet.

Xterminator

I dont think anyone has spelled it out, so here goes.

The biggest single reason the greens did well was because of the meltdown of FG.

I would point out that if there had been a credible alternative government, Greens would be lucky to have 3 seats.
They should be actively seeking to get into government, to impement the policys they have in there manifesto.
But for personal reasons they are not.

If Greens actually manage to implent any of there policys from opposition I'll be suprised.

In fact the best they can hope is to provide a voice looking at the enviormental impact of laws being passed by the government, while not having a chance in hell of defeating them.

And I'm not sure that they will be rewarded in the next election for doing that.
It reminds me of the bible parable, about the servant who recieved x number of talents from his master, and hid them and buried them, and when the master came back, he hadnt done anything with them, and he was cast out.

Pretty prophetic i'd say.

X

Gael

Xterminator, the possibility of the Greens going into government now with Fianna Fáil(which, on the basis of the election results, is going to be the senior government partner, no matter who else is with them) would be an unmittigated disaster for them from which they might never recover.

Whether it was spelt out in plain english or not, the Greens were running on an anti-Fianna Fáil ticket. It was one of the worst kept secrets in the world.

The election slogan was "Green politics is clean politics". Their aims and objectives were an obvious challenge to the Fianna Fáil legacy of corruption and sleaze brought about by too many years of the certainty and arrogance of power. Do you honestly think there is even one ideological green voter(i.e. not just voting for them on local issues or personalities)who would want to see the green party help prop up that same old regime!

I went campaigning for the party, and on any of the doorsteps where we had people pledging support to the green party, they were saying quite clearly, to paraphrase Ruaidhrí Quinn, "Get the bastards out!"
Just about every active green party member that I know, joined the green party to end the destructive hegnemony of Fianna Fáil(and to a lesser extent the other established parties) Just about every vote the greens get, you can be damn sure it doesn't carry the sentiment of "embrace Fianna Fáil".
It's out of utter disillusionment and frustration with the status quo that people join and vote for the Greens and you think that they should then prop up that same status quo!
In all honesty I think we know what happened to Labour and it's "Spring-Tide" of 1992, that was based on a clear anti-Fianna Fáil ticket. They cleaned up in the election and then slapped the obvious anti-Fianna Fáil sentiment that had just about doubled their seat numbers in the face, by going into coalition with FF. That coalition destroyed Labour's prospects and their vote is still dropping, albeit at a slower pace from '97.

They never managed to truly counter the FF sleaze culture while in coalition, they simply helped to give FF a longer shelf life and destroyed any moral high ground they may have had before the election. Then came the massacre of election '97 and the fact is that they still haven't recovered from that, even five years later.

As regards the idea that the Greens should enter coaltion to have their policies implimented, it seems sound enough from a limited perpective, since it is a fact that every party's ultimate objective is to impliment their policies.
But in all honestly what would they have achieved? Even if Bertie took them in instead of the PDs, he wouldn't be depending on them. They'd give him his majority but the Greens would have no black mail power to maniplate Fianna Fáil if in coalition. If they said to FF in coalition"You either do this/that or we walk", FF would just laugh in their faces. If he chose, Bertie could just opt for a government with the support of TWO independents, many of whom are just rebel FFers anyway, who are well prepared to support the party if it satisfies their local interests.The greens would have no bargaining chip to force change, but would end up being tainted by the FF sleaze culture, whatever happens. The electorate would smash them into oblivion in the next election without mercy, and to be honest, I wouldn't blame them.

They'd achieve f*** all in coalition, except maybe getting a ministerial Merc, so they might as well stay in opposition and show the people that they are a true opposition to the status quo culture of cronyism and sleaze. Roll on election 2007!

Gael

And as regards the biblical parable you quoted, the servant was thrown out for not puting his talents to good use, not because he didn't form a partnership with the other man who got talents. They were both sent their separate ways.
And if you consider that the Greens are doing nothing with their "talents", maybe you should ask yourself why Trevor Sargent topped the poll in Dublin North and why John Gormley polled higher in Dublin South East than Ruaidhrí Quinn, the leader of the second biggest opposition party, despite having nothing to do with the reigns of power since 1997.

Gael

Looks like the GP are about to make the best with the failure of Mary White, the deputy leader to win a seat in the Dáil:

GREENS DEPUTY LEADER SELECTED TO RUN FOR SENATE

The Green Party Deputy Leader, Cllr. Mary White, has been selected to run for a Senate seat on the Industry and Commerce panel. Cllr. White was nominated by the party’s National Coordinating Committee over the weekend.

Cllr. White said that she was delighted to have been selected by the party to contest the Senate elections. “It is a tremendous honour to have been selected by the Party to run for the Senate and I am looking forward to running a strong, professional campaign. I believe that a Green voice and a woman’s voice in the Senate can only be a positive development. I have also been a successful businesswoman now for twenty five years and that is why I am running under the Industry and Commerce panel.”

Cllr. Mary White, who contested the General Election in Carlow/Killkenny, narrowly missed out on the last seat which was eventually taken by Fianna Fáil’s MJ Nolan. Cllr. White polled 4961 first preference votes (8.15%) eventually being eliminated on the eight count on 7355 votes.

The Green Party Deputy Leader is also Party spokesperson on the Environment, Agriculture, Food and Rural Development. A successful businesswoman for the past twenty five years, she made Green Party history when she topped the poll ahead of Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael in the rural three seater of Borris, Carlow in the 1999 Local Elections. Mary White first ran for election in June 1997 polling 3,116 first preference votes in the General Election.

A passionate and articulate debater, Cllr White is married with one daughter. A graduate (Modern Languages) of Trinity College, Dublin she has edited "A Walking Guide to the Blackstairs"" (with Joss Lynam ) and written "Environment, Mining and Politics". She is a keen hill walker, linguist and organic grower.

sceptre

Good woman, Mary White - from what I've seen of her views and capabilities she'd be an addition to any parliament.

That last bit in her profile looks like some kind of dating service list though (still doesn't rank up with Peter Power mentioning that he used be auditor of the UCC debating soc (philosoph) or Law soc when he was in college on his 1997 election flyers - er, so what Peter (I used be auditor of both in UL - wouldn't be putting it on my flyers if I ever ran for office)