Will FG ever come back?

Shane

I'm not a supporter of Fine Gael, but even I was shocked with their result in the election. With media commentators calling it the meltdown in Fine Gael, and the party meeting during the week to re-evaluate their policies, do you think they have a future? Will they ever again become the main opposition?

sceptre

Ignoring the FG policies for the moment...

They did worse in 1977. From there they came back to form two governments in the 80s. So on that basis there's no reason why they can't.

Having said that (and now paying attention to their policies)...
FG have always had an identity problem. They've always been viewed as the "alternative" government to FF. They've done well every time the electorate has become disillusioned with FF. In other words, their success in the past has often been as a result of a reactionary force against Fianna Fail. Now some of the other parties are seen as possible opposition, they may have an uphill battle to recover as they are no longer seen as the alternative administration.

The problem FG will face is giving the electorate a reason for their existence. FF managed to achieve support throughout the 1920s and 1930s as the Anti-Treaty Party™, the Republican Party and the party of the ordinary people in the country (and in the city for those who wouldn't vote Labour). As the Pro-Treaty Party, FG weren't the only ones - their vote was chipped away by Labour and the Farmers Party before the amalgamation with them.

In the 80s, FG came out with a range of social policies, many of which seemed quite radical at the time. Almost all of these policies have been achieved, most of them implemented by FF in the past 10 years. So FG's problem in the future will be in coming up with a range of policies that will appeal to voters. And I don't mean decisions on taxation policy. I mean the airy-fairy policies that make the backbone of what a party means to its followers. FF have them, Labour have them, so do the PDs, the Greens and SF.

On the other hand, I'm of the opinion that a party shouldn't come up with policies just to try and rejuvenate itself. The best thing FG can do for themselves, imho, is to try and come up with policies like the Lib Dems in the UK (at least the ones that the PDs haven't already adopted). The Lib Dems are the closest comparison to FG that exists in Europe. All FG have to do is figure that out. It may not result in them getting back into power in the next ten years. over the course of the next twenty it would however allow them to keep pace with the growth in the Labour party that is sure to come at some point. At that point, they could go into government with Labour as equal partners. If they don't, within twenty years, FG may be the junior partners in a coalition with FF (and if you think that's beyond the point of possibility, you've more belief in the survival of the civil war divide than I do (and you could be right of course))

They're not necessarily finished. To survive as a proper force though, they need to steal back ground from Labour, the PDs and the Greens. And when you look at the differing policies of those parties, you can see what an uphill battle Fine Gael have.

The old UK Liberal Party disappwared within ten years as Labour took their entire electorate away from them. It's quite possible that parties like the Greens and Labour will take all but FGs core electorate away from them within four elections if FG don't do something about it.

In twenty years, FG may be remembered most in the latter half of the twentieth century for Dukes' Tallaght Strategy. it may have lost votes for FG, but it's the one action the party have taken since 1951 that I have most respect for. In fifty years, people may not see why it was such a big deal for one right-wing party effectively to support another right-wing party. That's the legacy Fine Gael face if they don't reinvent themselves as a broad liberal-base social party. The question is whether they can even recover their electoral base then.

pascall

Some very good point spectre, I believe that FG do have to sort out where they are, who they are and where they want to go before they start the real rebuilding.

Talking a member who got re-elected he pointed out that the FG vote is only down by 5% from 97 which is only 80,000 of the voters.

Another problem within this election was the feel good factor which FG did damn all about, or even acknowledge it existed, they tried to talk people out of it, a vote pact with Labour should have being offered to the voters and in alot of constituncies there was awful vote managemnt, DL highlighted this most and saw the party give away 2 seats to bad management.

I think FG will be back, hopefully with a new name, new image, new focus and a Dublin TD as a leader and with the character of Bertie and a front bench to challenge the new governement.

Victor

Originally posted by pascall
I think FG will be back, hopefully with ... a Dublin TD as a leader and with the character of Bertie

Whatever happened to electing people on merit (strategy aside)?

pascall

Originally posted by Victor

Whatever happened to electing people on merit (strategy aside)?

Victor, I think you know when merit went out of Irish Politics.

FG need a Dublin Leader to reclaim the Dublin vote. Problem at the moment is that Brain Hayes, didn't get his seat and the other 3 are pure crap. Typical of a FG TD.