Are we starting to see a slow-down in the slow-down?

Trojan

Or to put it another way, is the sector starting to recover, albeit mildly? I certainly hope so.

http://www.siliconvalley.com/docs/news/depth/gdp083001.htm

http://dailynews.yahoo.com/h/zd/20010830/tc/fishing_for_the_bottom_of_the_tech_slump_1.html

Maybe silly optimism, who knows?

Al.

slimjimbo

To be honest, i think it is. The main reason behind the slowdown is that people are not buying a new computer every year like the companies thought they would. Now, the people who bought computers 5+ years ago are upgrading. I think that there will be repeated 'slow-down followed by recovery' cycles for a few decades to come. There is a big performance difference between a chip running at 1GHz+ and one running at 100MHz (like mine!), but there isn't between a chip running at 1.6GHz and 2GHz so people couldn't be bothered to upgrade.

That's my two cents (or is it cent? Bring back the pence!)

slimjimbo

_CreeD_

This dip in demand was predicted years ago. There's usually a 3 year cycle to the average user's upgrading and it's now 3 years after the PC market really took off (Where it moved from being a luxury to a standard, just like a TV).
Also so many companies were racing too fast to try and get a lead strong enough to dominate new markets, this year they reaped the rewards of going to fast.
Add to that just about everyone leaving college and heading into IT and this whittling of chaff was inevitable imho

Things will pick up slowly over the next year, with more cautious growth I think.

Hobbes

Projections indicate that it is going to get worse before it gets better.

A lot of things are quarterly based (to please stockholders) so I would at a guess expect to see a lot of more companies going belly up and people unemployed around the november/december mark.

A lot of these things have serious knock on effects. For example a lot of companies in the US are cutting back on business travel to save money. Because of this some of the major airlines are reporting heavy losses.

Balfa

Bahh... this has very little to do with home users buying PCs... home PC sales are worth roughly fcuk-all of the "IT sector". the "IT sector" is in EVERYTHING... from your microwave to huge corporate security systems.

And, Creed, it's even less to do with people leaving college and entering IT jobs. There's still a huge demand for IT graduates in Ireland... People think IT is all about computer programmers.... but it's not, they're pretty much near the top of the scale... for every programmer, there are like, 50 unskilled IT jobs... places like Gateway closing.... that was a callcenter, where there are very few degree-level jobs in comparison to all the i-am-a-monkey-that-answers-the-phone jobs. That's right, you don't know anyone with a computer science degree who answers phones for a living.

Goodbye.

_CreeD_

Eh Balfa, I used to work in Gateway, many did have computer science degrees, and many didn't (Like me, I did Physics). The simple fact was that everyone was running for the IT market. The attrition rate was so high that they ended up just looking for anyone with common sense, the nature of college qualifications didn't matter so much as that you just had one to prove you could apply yourself.
The IT sector became bloated with a huge amount of 'professionals' who had no real interest in the sector. Chaff...

And actually the last I would associate with IT are programmers.

Typedef

Don't be fooled by propaganda, we all know it was George Bush's accession/installment as prince of the US and the 6-8 months of international diplomatic roughs that really brought down the US economy and hence the IT sector too yea? I mean the sector was slowing down marginally under Clinton right but most people were very optomistic about it's chances but once Bush got in and started scrapping treaties and spurning allies left right and center the economic reprocussions were enivatible , also it is 'fashionable' especially in the media to report tech layoffs while the global economy was in the midst of it's cyclic correction.

Don't forget lots of these people who seem to avidly enjoy reporting 'tech meltdown' are the same people who can't use outlook express for example yeah? and thus felt vindicated when the fit hit the shan know what I mea?

Hobbes

<font face="Verdana, Arial" size="2">Originally posted by Typedef:
Don't forget lots of these people who seem to avidly enjoy reporting 'tech meltdown' are the same people who can't use outlook express for example yeah? and thus felt vindicated when the fit hit the shan know what I mea?</font>

Anyone who doesn't think we are on an edge of recession are on drugs.

Typedef

Recession is as talked up as the ever-lasting growth that everyone had been predicting ergo I don't have to do drugs to think that the world will avoid recession and one of the main reasons for this is 1.The quick exchange of information that the Information age brought and 2.The class mobility that the Information Age brought, that's one of the reasons electing the son of a former President as US President sux yeah?

/party political broadcast ends.

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Hobbes

I love your optimism, but have you actually looked at the markets? Have you looked at what is happening in the world? Japan is so bad at the moment it is at it's lowest since 1984 and they are expecting to lay off people (which is normally unheard of).

It is expected to get worse before it gets better. In the US it normally doesn't hit the other countries until 5-6 months later.

Typedef

Japan has apparently been in trouble for a decade or so... & I'm not saying I don't think a recession is not happening but it seems as if the poster is right, has anyone noticed any significant layoffs since the gateway one? /aside BTW Gateway are "relocating" to Cypress , thanks to the Nurses and Teachers I lots of people I used to work with in tech support are probably out of jobs right about now \aside

but I still think that seeing as how the media is not reporting doom as gloom to the same extent as it had been that we may actually be turning around, but I s'pose we'll have to wait n see ?

yankinlk

<font face="Verdana, Arial" size="2">Originally posted by Typedef:
Don't be fooled by propaganda, we all know it was George Bush's accession/installment as prince of the US and the 6-8 months of international diplomatic roughs that really brought down the US economy and hence the IT sector too yea? I mean the sector was slowing down marginally under Clinton right but most people were very optomistic about it's chances but once Bush got in and started scrapping treaties and spurning allies left right and center the economic reprocussions were enivatible , also it is 'fashionable' especially in the media to report tech layoffs while the global economy was in the midst of it's cyclic correction.
</font>

You are taking the **** right? The last person you can blame this on is Bush m8. I don't particularly like him but he certainly didn't cause this. These things take years to build up and years to correct. Have you ever even read a stock market chart? Have a look back in time on a site like http://www.clearstation.com and look at a company like say, IBM. Go back 10 years, ro even twenty. Then you can see how many years companies like DELL will now be in the "flat line " period.

Hobbes

>Gateway are "relocating" to Cypress ,

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=GTW&d=t

From what I gather, Gateway is in serious trouble even if the rest of the world wasn't.

They are pulling out of Europe altogether, actually shutting down all overseas units including Asia Pacfic.

Ba$tard

1) Yep. Home PC sales normally make up 5% of all PC sales(Dataquest). So a slowdown in home sales means nada to the economy.


2) Plenty of demand for Graduates? No! Out of ~95 people who graduated from CIT in Comps Deg. ONLY 5 of them are in full-time degree-related positions. FACT. Companies are being unfair by looking for people who have experience. Crap I say....creative and flexibility in a person is at its prime during their career when they first start on a job, not some auld coffee-sluggin' fart-emittin' desk-jockey who believes that it is his/he god-given right to not have to work for their wages.

3) Totally agree. George Bushes policies is definately making an impact on Global trade and therefore hitting the largest economy in the world, by which all smaller economies feel the ripples. Celtic Tiger is now the Celtic Kitten.

4) If you ask me, I believe the dotcoms flucked it for all of us...creating paper-companies will always have its lash-back. It is a main contributor of this corporate-flush we are now experiencing.

5) Have we hit rock-bottom? Prehaps the shares now have, but that is the only component. IMHO, I see alot more pain to come...Big companies layoff and then smaller co's will start to lay off soon....just like trends and economies follow each other...


P.S> I'd start buying EMC, IBM and CISCO shares if I had any money lying around. Over the next 4 years, you cant lose.

Ba$tard

Typedef

<font face="Verdana, Arial" size="2">Originally posted by Hobbes:

They are pulling out of Europe altogether, actually shutting down all overseas units including Asia Pacfic. </font>

I thought that too but, I was talking to the guy who used to run the CHS department a few years before I joined and I said much the same thing to him as above , but apparently the general wisdom is that you will still be able to buy Gateway products in Ireland and in EMEA just that the production facility will probably be in Cyprus, now wether that is just gossip or how reliable his sources are is I suppose debatable but, having run CHS I would think that he would have some idea, if it is true that the operation will eventaully move to Cyprus then I don't know if I feel good for Gateway or bad for Ireland?

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Why not try Slackware

Hobbes

Companies are being unfair by looking for people who have experience.

Yea shame on you companies,SHAME ON YOU!!!!

creative and flexibility in a person is at its prime during their career when they first start on a job

Not true at all. Btw just because you went to collage doesn't mean your creative and flexible.

not some auld coffee-sluggin' fart-emittin' desk-jockey who believes that it is his/he god-given right to not have to work for their wages.

That desk jockey probably went to collage.

Ba$tard

HE SAID: Not true at all. Btw just because you went to collage doesn't mean your creative and flexible.
Heh, I said nothing about having to go to college...most of the creative thinkers in the world never bothered with further education!

HE SAID: That desk jockey probably went to collage.
Yup, maybe....but the point is that they have been work envoirnments for a long time, which tends to dull your sense of positivity! (on average :P)

"Right, where has my MAxwell-house and paper gone?!?!?!?"

Ba$tardo la CS-Camper.

Jelvon

hmm, by the sound of the thread here it looks like I have picked the wrong degree course (computer science) to go into . Hopefully the industry will have picked up by the time I am looking for work.

Kegser

I've said it before and I'll say it again; in the IT world, experience is King.

Good for you if you have a relevant Degree to boost your application for a job; but someone who spent those years working in a relevant work environment would in my opinion be offered the job first.

I know a lot of "self-made men". As in, people who learn their trade themselves, by books, practical experience, courses, and actually taking an avid interest in their field. This is in stark contrast to a large percentage of College-goers who don't have a huge interest in what they're studying and don't retain half of it anyway because the alcohol has clouded their memory cells.

Then again, what do I know, I never went to college. Oh hold on, I never even did my Leaving Cert. either, imagine that.

Kegser

Oh, and just to add to an earlier comment, the Home PC sector is one of the areas of IT that isn't in a recession. Sales are pretty much on par with sensible predictions, and there have been no major surprises; at least not here or in the UK.

Ba$tard

I take it you mean Eire ?!?!??!?

We're not in the UK
Although anytime one of our many sportspeople perform well, the BCC/ITV tend to display the Ugly Jack as their Flag instead of the Tri-Colour...sad for them...

Ba$tard the patriot.
"Just gimmie a gun, go on..go on go on..."

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"And there I was, minding my own business, when the Piano came out of nowhere!"

Jelvon

I know Kegser that experience counts for alot which is why I went for a course which has a year's work experience in the industry. IMHO it is no use having a degree at the end without some experience.

Lemming

I'd justlike to throw in my 2p's worth

People have made great pains to point out the "IT Meltdown" by citing such companies as Gateway, Comnpaq, and Intel.

First of all, never believe everything you hear in the media.

Second of all, all of these companies are predominantly hardware companies.

Thirdly, all of the above companies have been getting mauled by their competitors. Dell and AMD spring to mind!

It ain't so cut-and-dried doomsday s**t!!