Broadband could generate $500bn a year

dahamsta

The Register

Broadband could prove to be a massive catalyst for economic growth, according to the latest pie-in-the-sky crystal ball gazing from Gartner Dataquest.

Forget the broadband currently on offer - Gartner's talking about broadband with speeds starting from an eye-watering 10Mbps.

Using an economic model from the International Telecommunications Union (ITU), it reckons that the universal availability of 10Mbps broadband in the US could deliver an increase in gross domestic product (GDP) of $500bn a year for the next ten years.

Part of that growth would be created by the development of a new super-fast network, which would demand "continuous upgrade of communications equipment".

[...]

MrPudding

Thats all very well but it doesn't really mean anything in Ireland. I mean how can a product that only 1000 people in the country want drive an economy to newer and greater heights?

ednwireland

hate to be a voice of dissent here but these days, no one will buy a figure like that unless it is very qualified (except newspapers)
just remember that the PKI market was supposed to be worth several billion by 2005 and where is that now ???

dahamsta

Thats all very well but it doesn't really mean anything in Ireland.

Of course it doesn't, who said it did? It's a UK article, with monetary figures quoted in dollars.

I mean how can a product that only 1000 people in the country want drive an economy to newer and greater heights?

Uh, since when do only a 1000 people in Ireland want broadband? The huge majority in Ireland can't even get it. If they could, another huge majority wouldn't be able to afford it. But that doesn't mean they don't want it.

I reckon IrelandOffline alone could give you 1000 people that want it, and they only have 1500 members or so.

adam

MrPudding

Sorry dahamsta I was being sarcastic.

dahamsta

Ah. Perhaps I was being oversensitive.

adam

Matt Simis

Originally posted by dahamsta

I mean how can a product that only 1000 people in the country want drive an economy to newer and greater heights?

Uh, since when do only a 1000 people in Ireland want broadband? The huge majority in Ireland can't even get it. If they could, another huge majority wouldn't be able to afford it. But that doesn't mean they don't want it.

I reckon IrelandOffline alone could give you 1000 people that want it, and they only have 1500 members or so.

adam

I agree a "huge" majority of the populace cant get broadband, but in general I see people using the word majority a little often.

Im assuming that when you say "they" you are refering to one of the "majorities" you mentioned. But what majority are you (plural) referring to? Surely not the majority of the populace in the country? The majority of the people in Ireland do not even own a PC. Im talking about 64% of the populace have no computer, only 36% do.
Source: US Department of State FY2001 Country Commercial Guide*

Then we move onto the mystery percentage of those who a) know what broadband is and b) care. I would imagine 15% of the people with PCs (the 36%) are reasonably familiar with broadband. Figure B, I would not dare to guess on.

When we talk about how "everybody wants it" and "majorities", what is the common understanding of a "majority"? My feeling is that most of the people who would purchase and evangelize broadband are actually right here, reading these boards... and I dont think they make up a majority of anything.

Id like to think we live in a technologically enlightened society and culture but Irish people are for the most part, Tech Stoopid




Matt


* http://www.corporateinformation.com/iesector/Computers.html

spongebob

In the last census (1996) ISTR that over 90% of Households have a phone line and in the latest census One Third or so 33% of households have a computer.

63% of Households who have a computer use the internet according to the CSO.

That means 25% of Households (and by reasonable extension of people in Ireland) use the Internet from home.

Regrettably the CSO did not ask us about Leased lines in the Census....must bEEtch at them b4 the neext one..... so I assume they use dialup!

I also assume that 25% of the households understand the difference between 'slow' and 'fcuk me thats fast' when they actually see it in action.

Broadband is available ......generally at the highest cost in the EU ...... to less than 10% of households so the others either do not have a computer , don't use it for the Internet or don't know what they are missing.

I would say that 20% of Households fall into this category , all of whom use the internet. 5% of Households who use the Internet could get Broadband.

M

Xian

Originally posted by Matt Simis
The majority of the people in Ireland do not even own a PC. Im talking about 64% of the populace have no computer, only 36% do.
Source: US Department of State FY2001 Country Commercial Guide*

The Country Commercial Guide statistics are taken from the CSO report below.

Originally posted by Muck
In the last census (1996) ISTR that over 90% of Households have a phone line and in the latest census One Third or so 33%* of households have a computer.

*

Almost a third of households in Ireland now have a home computer
Home Computing, Fourth Quarter 2000

There are no more up-to-date statistics on this (i.e. household computer ownership). Any point made re potential internet population, you're better referring to Nielsen NetRatings which, last time I looked, put us at 38% internet population (i.e. not computer ownership). Basically, no argument about this can reasonably be made until the next results from CSO.

MrPudding

Originally posted by Matt Simis



Id like to think we live in a technologically enlightened society and culture but Irish people are for the most part, Tech Stoopid

Matt

I agree to a certain extent. Many people who use computers at home do not know what broadband is. And when they see how much it costs to get it installed and how much it cost per month they have no interest in finding out. They will, imho, automatically assume that it is not for home use and therefore a waste of effort finding anything out about it. If on the other hand they saw an ad for a product which didn't cost 2 months grocery shopping to install and almost one months shopping per month to run, it might just get their interest.

Hannibal_12

10 mbs, LOL,
Hello €ircon I'd like a 10 mbs line please.
Certainly sir, please come into our office and leave us a signed blank cheque along with all your credit cards and deeds to your house. Please ensure you postdate the cheque for the year 2045 AD.
Have a nice day and thank you for using €ircon, Irelands premium telecoms provider.

Seriously while its a nice thought you have to remember this is Ireland. Basic DSL will take years to be fully(or even partially) rolled out here and years before it comes down to a pricing level that is similar to real developed countries.
A harsh reality but one I have come to accept is that as long as €ircon have Ireland by the balls or as long as I am living here I really wont be able to get broadband for a reasonable price within the next 2-3 years not to mention 10mbs.