Jobs To Go With Nice No Vote

bertiebowl

The Dublin Chamber of Commerce has warned that a second Nice no vote will have long term negative economic effects on the irish economy

Aspro

The negative effects of recession are already being felt with job losses every other week. How is voting No to Nice going to affect jobs? This is just scaremongering to force people to vote "the right way" because the powers that be didn't get the result they wanted last time.
The Chamber of Commerce, along with all other business interests know the windfall they're going to get with the implementation of the GATS (General Agreement in Trade and Services), i.e. privatisation of a whole range of our services including waste collection, water, telecoms and postal services.
Big business knows that a unified EU economic and military superpower will be able to rival the USA in terms of the carving up of world markets - more money in the same few pockets.

So it's no wonder that they're all pushing for a Yes vote.

Don't be under any illusion that they bear sympathy for the lot of Irish workers.

In May 2001, Dell Computers announced a voluntary redundancy package for 200 workers in its Limerick plant;

in June 2001. Dell announced that it expected 125 workers in its Bray and Dublin plants to opt for a voluntary redundancy package;

in June 2001, Nortel cut 800 jobs at its Belfast plant and 90 in Galway;

in June 2001, 400 job losses were announced at Xerox in Dundalk;

in July 2001, Intel announced that it wanted up to 170 voluntary redundancies;

in July 2001, Compaq announced sharply lower profits, and that it was reviewing its Irish operations. This could result in job losses

in August 2001, Gateway announced the closure of its Dublin plant with the loss of 900 jobs.

bugler

Bertie you must be running the risk of a ban. Of your four posts, none have been longer than a sentence. Two of them were the same (this thread was also posted in Business), and none of them contained an opinion of your own. Are you a parrot? Or just a gormless lemming like your name and behaviour suggest?

The Dublin Chamber of Commerce is hardly the best organisation to look to for a balanced view of the Nice Treaty. In reality, neither side of the debate can point for absolute certain toward the consequences for either a yes/no vote. Each has likely outcomes, but we can't say for certain. I suspect should the Treaty be rejected again, the No vote shall become the scapegoat for everything from unemployment to the rising cost of Bertie's suits. And of course, our corrupt gardaí.

Lemming

Originally posted by bugler
Or just a gormless lemming like your name and behaviour suggest?

*ahem*


:eek:

Aspro

True, Bugler. It'll become the new September 11th - the excuse for everything from insurance increases to wars with Third World countries.

pencil

Originally posted by bertiebowl
The Dublin Chamber of Commerce has warned that a second Nice no vote will have long term negative economic effects on the irish economy

The Dublin Chamber of Commerce is just another IBEC type big business mouthpiece. They neither care nor think about the average Joe with his big mortgage in Europe's most expensive economy.

The Dublin Chamber of Commerce know that the government are opening our doors to economic migrants straight away and NOT IN LINE WITH THE REST OF EUROPE if the NICE treaty is passed.

Remember boys & girls your all your 'expensive' pay checks are hurting their PROFITS, they are salivating at the though of replacing all of you overpaid [1] workers with cheap migrant workers.

Aspro's post is bang on, businesses will come & go as they see fit, the only thing that keeps half of them here is our low corporation tax.

No to NICE.

[1] Hands up who thinks they are overpaid in this economy?

gandalf

Originally posted by bugler
Bertie you must be running the risk of a ban...... Are you a parrot? Or just a gormless lemming like your name and behaviour suggest?

Yes one line comments are not welcome and we do like people to express their own opinions when they start a thread.

However bugler you stand a far better chance of getting banned by using personal insults against other posters. DO NOT DO IT AGAIN.

Gandalf.

bugler

It was a question. By the way, what exactly is the method used in deciding who to warn about insulting behaviour? Random shows of strength? I've been personally insulted more than once here in recent memory, and your iron fist was nowhere to be seen. And unlike bertiebowl, I didn't earn the insults by repeatedly breaking one the foremost basic guidelines of both the Politics and other forums:

Starting Threads

Topics should be relevant to the politics board.
Topics should not be verbatim quotes from some article sans comment. Either add a comment before or after the post, offering your opinion on the subject, or at the very least, your reason for adding the topic.
If a quoted article is available online, please supply a link to the article rather than quoting the entire article verbatim.

gandalf

bugler I don't review every thread in detail I rely on the users to point out to me by pm/report this thread link to anybody abusing the forum rules.

Don't worry I have dispatched a reminder to bertiebowl and another poster today about one line responses/threads and if don't play ball they will be silent on this forum for a while or longer.

Next time someone insults you in a thread just let me know and it will be sorted very quickly.

Gandalf.

bertiebowl

Sorry lads, didn't realise my posts had to be long - I like to be brief and to the point and avoid wasting everyone's time.

Anyway here's my opinion on the matter in hand.

The IDA Boss Sean Dorgan has said that a Nice "no" vote will make his job far harder as competitor countries will say to the likes of Intel etc.

"Look at ireland, they are only half aligned with Europe/Single Market etc. etc. - they don't like foreigners/immigrants which is why they voted no to Nice"

The foreign capitalist will take this on board and it will affect his/her decision to invest in Ireland and provide replacement jobs for the ones that are currently being lost.

bertiebowl

My above post didn't mention the jobs we will gain if we procede with a Yes vote which will allow EU enlargement on time.

1) Forfas predicted in their submission to the national forum on Europe that ireland could act as a "gateway" to an enlarged Europe of 500 million consumers - jobs would be created to help companies serve this enlarged market

2) Enlargement will allow Irish companies to invest into E.Europe thus generating more profits, jobs and irish corporation tax rates etc. which can be spend building hospitals etc.

3) We're a highly open economy dependent upon good trade relations with our E.European neighbours. - so damaging our relations with the applicant countries by voting no is simply damaging our trade relations (and incomes) for the next 20 years

4) Tourism will suffer with a no vote. We have a potential market of 150 million to market our country to. Instead we slamming the door in their face. Stupid or what?

Shazbat

Originally posted by bertiebowl

"Look at ireland, they are only half aligned with Europe/Single Market etc. etc. - they don't like foreigners/immigrants which is why they voted no to Nice"

How do you know what these countries will think?

If people like you go around saying that, then it could be possible that they will think that.

There are dozens of reasons why people would vote no to nice. But what I gather from that statement is that you think that people should vote yes to Nice, because to vote no might appear to others to be racist. Hmm it doesn't really have any bearing on any of the issues involved, but then again neither does Mary Harneys latest pro-nice rant.

Originally posted by bertiebowl
The foreign capitalist will take this on board and it will affect his/her decision to invest in Ireland and provide replacement jobs for the ones that are currently being lost. [/B]

How do you know? Have you asked them? Maybe it would be more beneficial for the foreign capitalist to look at the recent world-wide corruption study where we are ranked 23rd and are seen to do nothing to combat this.

sceptre

As I've pointed out in your (cross-)post in Business/Economy, you've not indicated whether the DCoC went on to say why they thought this would happen.

You've posted your own reasons which is fair enough (and in my view far more valid due to the DCoC's usual "what do you want us to say, oh Taoiseach" attitude).

However, if the Dublin Chamber of Commerce themselves didn't go on to mention any reasons why they thought this might be the case, who gives a damn what they say?

stickinikki

why would other EU countries think that we "dont like foreigners/immigrants"? Irish citizens were lucky enough to have been able to vote on the nice treaty, unlike most others. how do you know that they wanted us to vote yes? in the very same way they might be grateful for us voting no.

Cork

The Emporors New Clothes & The Storty about the sky falling in?

We have a chance to say No - to stand up 4 a democratic set up of equality, democracy & fairness

bertiebowl

The IDA boss have gone on record as saying that the international market for attracting jobs/investment to a country like Ireland is extremely competitive.

He said that other countries would be quick to exploit any perceived "weakness" in our arguments for attracting foreign investment, including a perceived "distancing ourselves from Europe".

I would agree with him on this.

Voting no is a vote to isolate ourselves economically and politically.

A yes vote has the benefits of allowing EU enlargement on time, with the potential for Ireland to benefit economically/jobs wise from that enlargement.

Shazbat

Originally posted by bertiebowl

A yes vote has the benefits of allowing EU enlargement on time, with the potential for Ireland to benefit economically/jobs wise from that enlargement.

Of benefit jobswise to who? The hordes of people who could descend on Ireland like a plague of job-hungry locusts? There probably would be more jobs, jobs similar to ones in the sweat shops in asia, and no doubt investors would like a slice of that slave labour pie.

Instant access to workers who would gladly work for a pittance. An employers dream come true.

So in a way it would mean more jobs, but not in the way the "vote yes!" brigade make it sound.

bertiebowl

Sorry to upset you but:

a) Ireland has minimum wages legislation (nobody working for a pittance)

b) The numbers predicted to move East to West are very small - some say around 3,000 extra migrants will come to Ireland (no "hoards of locusts").

c) Forfas predicted Irish jobs would be created if we could act as a "Gateway" to an enlarged EU.

Shazbat

Originally posted by bertiebowl
Sorry to upset you but:

a) Ireland has minimum wages legislation (nobody working for a pittance)

b) The numbers predicted to move East to West are very small - some say around 3,000 extra migrants will come to Ireland (no "hoards of locusts").

c) Forfas predicted Irish jobs would be created if we could act as a "Gateway" to an enlarged EU.

a) How naive

b) Who told you that? An independant source no doubt (my arsé)

c) Oh, if ForFas said it, it must be true

bertiebowl

Here's a link to try on the immigration issue.


http://europa.eu.int/comm/enlargement/docs/pdf/migration_enl.pdf

And I don't think the minimum wage is naive??

DadaKopf

Originally posted by bertiebowl
The IDA Boss Sean Dorgan has said that a Nice "no" vote will make his job far harder as competitor countries will say to the likes of Intel etc.

"Look at ireland, they are only half aligned with Europe/Single Market etc. etc. - they don't like foreigners/immigrants which is why they voted no to Nice"

The foreign capitalist will take this on board and it will affect his/her decision to invest in Ireland and provide replacement jobs for the ones that are currently being lost.

First of all, Ireland's reaction to immigration is not unique among member states and Ireland is not the only country to have not, thusfar, ratified the Nice Treaty. Therefore Ireland will not necessarily be singled out in its rejection of the Nice Treaty.

Secondly, the expansion of the EU to Eastern European countries will most likely sap investment from Ireland as those countries can offer cheaper labour, more competitive tax rates and overall costs. This will be a direct result of expansion of the Nice Treaty.

I'm not entirely in disagreement on that aspect of the Nice Treaty at all, I just think you have the argument the wrong way around in this respect.

I'm much more concerned with the democratic deficit it causes in the Commission and the imbalance it causes in the European Parliament. Your website says that Ireland is guaranteed a commissioner under the treaty - you deliberately understate the fact that this only occurs in the interim until the EU reaches 27 member-coutries. Like it or not, a vote for the Nice Treaty is a vote for democratic deficit and imbalance - not just for us but for all coutries.

bertiebowl

Sure the applicant countries may have lower costs, but what counts for multinational investment is cost per unit.

E.g if an applicant country worker costs €1 an hour and produces one widget an hour the widget costs €1 right?

Now if an Irish worker costs €10 an hour and produces 100 widgets the widget only cost 10cents.

So if we can maintain high productivity/ competitiveness, we can easily compete with the applicant countries and ensure continuing investment by multinationals in Ireland.

By contrast a "no" vote will introduce uncertainty for foreign investors coming to Ireland.

The investors may ask themselves Does Ireland want out of the EU now they have to pay to be in the club?

This uncertainty will mean reduced investment.

Regarding the Commissioner representation, under Nice Ireland (pop 3.5 million ) will have exactly equal commissioner representation as Germany (pop 80 million).

How could we get a better deal?

If Nice is rejected and enlargement goes ahead, we could have 30 or 40 commissioners.

I feel it is inevitable in such situations that "junior" and "senior" commissioners would emerge.

And given we could fritter away our EU goodwill with a no vote, I feel it is likely we would get a "junior" commissioner rather than a senior one.

How would you feel if Ireland was given the commissioner for european lightbulbs or something?

Would you feel happy then?

Shazbat

Originally posted by bertiebowl
E.g if an applicant country worker costs €1 an hour and produces one widget an hour the widget costs €1 right?

Now if an Irish worker costs €10 an hour and produces 100 widgets the widget only cost 10cents.

What you have said there is 100% correct but the major flaw in your reasoning is that you are basing your argument on the dramatically exaggerated presumption that Irish workers work 100 times faster than an applicant country worker.

Applicant country worker in my opinion would work harder and for alot less money than Irish workers. They would work harder because of a tougher jobs market, and they would work for less because of a far cheaper cost of living in these countries.

And regarding your point on commissioners, I think Ireland would make a fine commissioner for lightbulbs.

bertiebowl

Slazbat, one of the reasons for the Celtic Tiger is due to the extra ordinary high productivity of irish workers - something we can clap ourselves on the back for.

I took this quote from the Central Bank Spring Bulletin (link posted below).

"During the 1990s, average labour productivity growth in the manufacturing sector exceeded average earnings growth. As a result there was a steady decline in the average unit labour costs throughout this period.....unit wage costs in manufacturing in 2000 were around 30% below their 1995 level."

http://www.centralbank.ie/documents/earp/Bulletins/Spring2002Main.pdf p.42

To paraphrase JFK, "we have nothing to fear about enlargement, but fear itself"

If we can keep our high productivity/competitiveness we can retain and increase Foreign investment into Ireland - protecting jobs and Irish tax revenues.

pencil

Originally posted by bertiebowl


If we can keep our high productivity/competitiveness we can retain and increase Foreign investment into Ireland - protecting jobs and Irish tax revenues.

bertiebowl, your argument just does not make sense.

If someone is working for 1/3 of what I'm working for I have to work 3 times harder (be 3 times more productive) to equal their productive-cost. Unless these people are extremely lazy (which I very much doubt) this is just not humanly possible.

How many people do you know in this working in this country that could even be 20% more productive, never mind 3 times more?

bertiebowl, obviously your talking from experience - in which case, if you could be 3 time more productive in your current job you deserve to be sacked.

All of this is pointless, it doesn't matter how productive I am or others are, what matters is how much I need to be paid to live in a certain economy verses someone elsewhere.

bertiebowl

Pencil,

How do you think countries like Switzerland, Norway and Sweden have industry?

These are countries that are VERY expensive to live in, where the workers are better paid than in Ireland.

The reason these countries can continue to have industry is due to the productivity of the workers.

Why do you think Intel is in Leixlip rather than Indonesia? I don't know what the wages are in Indonesia, but i reckon they are probably 10% of irish wages.

Now if you owned a factory which would you rather have?

a) A modern Irish factory with well educated workers or

b) A crumbling ex-communist factory.


If the productivity advantages of a) outweighed the cost advantages of b) I'd prefer to have factory in Ireland

As an example where do you think the most successful weaving industry is in the world?

Bangladesh? Pakistan?

Nope - Northern Italy, where the productivity of the expensive Italian workers is boosted by efficient factories to the point where it is CHEAPER to weave in Italy than in the third world.

(If you don't believe me check my source, a book by an irish economist based in Japan: Eamon Fingleton, "In praise of hard industries")

Typedef

The productivity of Itialian Weavers is nothing to do with whether or not Irish jobs will 'go' with another No to Nice.

Personally, I charge the EU with being a neo-Imperialist body. It is not consulting Ireland nor the Irish people who have already spoken via Referendum on the issue of Nice as to how Ireland wants to see the EU take shape. Thus Ireland is not a participant of the EU, but a subject of it.

See when the EU starts telling the electorate of Ireland that it doesn't like the way we voted and we 'have' to return to the polls to return the 'right' answer that is called being dictated to.

I don't intend to be dictated to by the EU anytime soon.

bertiebowl

Hey if the irish people vote no the EU has to respect the decision.

Remember it is our national government who are holding a second referendum.

The government (who I don't like at )are doing so because they believe a second referendum is in the national interest as a YES vote will help Irish jobs (see previous posts) whereas a no vote could destroy Irish jobs, as investors will be dissuaded by political uncertainty surrounding Ireland.

Typedef

Funny that I was under the perhaps mistaken impression that Ramano Prodi had pontificated that he wanted to see another referendum on Nice within one year of the last vote.

I was similarly under the impression Gehard Schroeder had come to Dublin and had told the Irish people how they had made a huge mistake, were obviously misinformed and had to vote again.

Perhaps though you consider Ramano Prodi ordering a second vote on Nice as a decision taken by the Irish government, I wasn't aware Mr Prodi was a TD let alone a cabinet minister.

Besides it is not the place of this country's government to dictate to the electorate either.

I don't care if Bertie Ahern thinks the Nice treaty is a great idea, I didn't vote for it and because his government is trying to force me to restate the fact that I didn't vote for it, won't make me change my mind and will most likely give me reason to continue not to vote for anything originating from this government.

So, Nice & the EU is not about the Irish participating as willing partners in the EU, no, quite clearly the EU which is alledgly so good for Ireland, is not so good for democracy. Clearly it is evident that Ireland is going to be coreced into some kind of Federal Union, a Union the people of Ireland don't want, funnily enough, that kind of top down imposed Union is exactly what Ireland has been trying to escape since the Act of Union in 1801. When the Irish parliment was dissolved and was subsumed into the Westminister parliment. Clearly the EU it has no respect for democracy or at least Ramano Prodi has none and neither it seems does Bertie Ahern, because it is attempting to force feed this treaty to the people of this country apres the fact.

Shazbat

Originally posted by bertiebowl
Now if you owned a factory which would you rather have?

a) A modern Irish factory with well educated workers or

b) A crumbling ex-communist factory.

If I was a captain of industry I would much rather have a crumbling ex-communist factory, but with massive EU grants to build a new one and easy access to thousands of workers who I could quite easily train to do specific menial tasks (thats what happened here isn't it? Assembly lines etc) and then pay them next to nothing, than a modern Irish factory (with the high rent or building costs that goes with it) with overpaid, hard to find, hard to please well educated workers.

Another alternative would be to hire hard working, willing to work for a pittance workers, emigrants from these countries in my modern irish factory, since that, theoretically would be another option if the Nice treaty is ratified.

gandalf

Originally posted by bertiebowl
Pencil,

How do you think countries like Switzerland, Norway and Sweden have industry?

These are countries that are VERY expensive to live in, where the workers are better paid than in Ireland.

The reason these countries can continue to have industry is due to the productivity of the workers.

Well to be honest its not all about productivity. Take Switzerland it has been on the crossroads in Europe to traderoutes and has been the banking centre for that area for centuries. It has also been extremely successful by not becoming a member of the EU or even teh UN (I think that may have changed recently), therefore blowing your we must vote yes to ensure our jobs arguement right out of the water.

Why do you think Intel is in Leixlip rather than Indonesia? I don't know what the wages are in Indonesia, but i reckon they are probably 10% of irish wages.

Probably because when they initially set up here the costs were lower also basing yourself in Indonesia doesn't really help to get a foothold in the european marketplace

Now if you owned a factory which would you rather have?

a) A modern Irish factory with well educated workers or

b) A crumbling ex-communist factory.

Bertiebowl I can assure you that countries like the Czech Republic & Slovakia are not full of crumbling ex-communist factories infact they now have superior infrastructure when compared to us. They are a very real threat to us because they have a highly educated workforce and their central location would cut down on distribution costs for companies.

Bertie I will be voting No to Nice but not for the reasons above. I am in favour of expanding the Union but I am totally against the undemocratic way we are been asked to vote again and the dilution of Irish Soveignty in the document. I also believe the prospective members from Eastern Europe should be given the same chances and opportunities that we have enjoyed over the years.

I also believe that the Irish voters have an obligation to the voters in the other 14 European Nations who are not been given the opportunity to vote on this momumential issue. The only logical vote is a NO.

Gandalf.