Prediction on Nice Treaty 2

dathi1

Without bias which way do you really think the referndum on Nice 2 will go?

I reckon if the turnout is below 39% its a NO above that and the Yes could take it by a margin say a few hundred votes. Either way I think it might be tight.

PH01

I'd say the No2Nice crowd has it in the bag. No contest, the 'No' vote will win, even if only half of them turned out

Bateman

I hope and predict that it will be a No. Not by much though

Typedef

It ain't over till the government decides not to have another Referendum.

bonkey

I think that this referendum will produce a Yes result, by a margin of less than 7%.

The government will be delighted, and immediately, a lobby will put forward a proposal for a third referendum, despite the members of that lobby having bitterly complained about how wrong multiple referenda are.

Should the result be No a second time, tehre will be no third referendum, but there will be a general election within 4 months as the government will lose a vote of no confidence.

jc

Shazbat

We should do best out of three.

Cork

I think this treaty will not be passed. There is a public mood out there that is very unhappy.

But - I think that this shambles of a treaty deserves to be defeated on its on demerits.

ReefBreak

I definately think Yes will win by a large margin. Not saying this because I'm 100% behind a Yes vote, but because *far more* people will vote this time.

seamus

It's gonna be another abortion scenario. All the yes people will stay at home 'someone else will do it', and all the No people will vote.

All polls show that there's substantially more people who are going to vote Yes, but there's also enough of a 'don't know' segment to easily swing it to a No. Plus you can never be sure of polls.

I agree with bonkey. It'll be Yes by a small margin. If it's no, the government can go looking for new jobs........

Typedef

If a Yes result is returned Typedef will go looking for another country to live in, one in which his vote will be respected by the government and not spat back into his face because he "Doesn't understand the issues", was misinformed or the European Union just doesn't like the way he votes.

Besides if a Yes vote is the result I believe that Ireland will effectively be part of a Supra Nationalist pseudo Empire, with no real democratic voice (not one that is respected anyway), not real self determinate democracy and no adequate mechanisms to exponenciate Irish interests, so I would move somewhere that the country in question could look out for it's own national interests like the US. Besides I don't want to live in a United States of Europe so if such a thing comes to pass and the Nice Treaty is forced upon this country in the second sitting I will not be able to reconcile my political views with the political environment or reality Ireland will have been forced/subjected/maneuvered into accepting.

PH01

Originally posted by Typedef
If a Yes result is returned Typedef will go looking for another country to live in, one in which his vote will be respected by the government and not spat back into his face because he "Doesn't understand the issues", was misinformed or the European Union just doesn't like the way he votes.

What country would you go to that it more democratic than Ireland?

Typedef

It's a fairly common phonenom PH01, when people in country (x) feel they don't have access to jobs or don't have access to representative government or feel marginalised and disenfranchised said people seek elsewhere to live.

Thus since I have already voted on the Nice Treaty I feel that arguably re-voting on the issue is in effect disenfranchising me as a person and if the decision is reversed in the upcoming election disenfranchised is exactly what I think I and the people of Ireland will have been.

dathi1

Its weird...either its where I live and work or I'm missing something. I've been asking people if and how they are going to vote on the Nice issue and I found:
Before I give them my spiel:
Most people don't know what's its about.
Those who "might" vote are voting yes and no equally.
Those who are definitely voting are voting no.
Those who are voting yes aren't sure why their doing it.
Those who are voting No say they're validating their previous No vote and then other issues.
The biggest concern amongst all was immigration and Jobs. The power issue didn't surface until I pointed it out. (some definite conversions after that though )



No 2 Nice

Paulg

The YES vote will get it this time.
Last time YES voters thought it would go through easily so they didn't come out to vote. But this time they know different.

PH01

The power issue didn't surface until I pointed it out. (some definite conversions after that though )

Scaremonger!

You should have pointed them to this forum to get the truth!

PH01

Originally posted by Paulg
The YES vote will get it this time.
Last time YES voters thought it would go through easily so they didn't come out to vote. But this time they know different.

I wouldn't be too sure about that. The Yes side has a better poster campaign this time but let no get carried away like last time.

Hopefully this time we'll get the true vote of the people of Ireland and it will be Yes.

swiss

Difficult to say really. Most surveys seem to indicate a small yes majority, although as demonstrated in the last referendum one cannot place too much faith in these polls, due largely to the fact that not all of those who register their opinions and attitudes on a poll actually substantiate those with an actual vote.

From my own experience, I find that those who say they are voting no are more trenchant in their opinions than those who say they are voting yes. I am not necessarily saying this is a bad thing, but it is an impression I get based on asking people about their attitudes to Nice.

Originally posted by daithi1:

Most people don't know what's its about.

I got that impression too. The government booklet should help explain the issues involved - I took a look through the first one and it explained the European institutions and a basic outline of the effect of the treaty on these.