What swing is needed for Yes to win.

PH01

I did a few calculations just now (when I was suppose to be working - the sacrifices I make for this board ) and I reckon that the 'Yes' side will need a swing of 8.4% or more in order win this referendum on Saturday. This will be a tall order if the turnout is anything like what came out the last time.

The 'Yes' side will need to win the following constituencies...
Carlow-Kilkenny
Cavan-Monaghan
Clare
Cork South-West
Cork South-Central
Dublin South-East
Dublin North
Dublin South
Dun Laoghaire
Galway East
Kildare North
Kildare South
Laois-Offaly
Limerick East
Limerick West
Longford-Roscommon
Louth
Meath
Tipperary North
Tipperary South
Waterford
Wexford
Wicklow

The following constituencies was where the 'No' vote was strongest the last time. These will have to remain that way for 'No' to win...
Cork East
Cork North-West
Cork North-Central
Donegal North-East
Donegal South-West
Dublin Central
Dublin North-Central
Dublin North-East
Dublin North-West
Dublin South-Central
Dublin South-West
Dublin West
Galway West
Kerry North
Kerry South
Mayo
Sligo-Leitrim
Westmeath

How do you reckon it's going to go?

seamus

Apparently, there's been a huge jump in people are going to vote in the past month. Especially in the 18-24 age group, where the figure almost doubled (up now to 55%). So it could go either way. In general, it seems younger voters are more likely to vote No and older voters are more likely to vote Yes, so it's gonna be miiighty close.......

gandalf

Personally from talking to people I would say the younger voters are more likely to vote Yes and the older ones to vote No.

The Government reckon they need a turnout of 45% or higher to win this vote. Its going to be interesting on the day to see if referedum fatigue turns voters away.

Gandalf.

PH01

Turnout will proibably be lower than most people think. 45% sounds like being a bit optimistic. 38% - 40% seems more likely.

Saturday polling should be interesting though. I wonder what percentage of the electorate are going away for the weekend?

Meh

How do you reckon it's going to go?

If it rains on Saturday, it'll be a no. If the sun shines, it'll be yes. It's all about turnout.

DMC

Well, I've a feeling turnout will be high.... for this reason.

Saturday Night Mass.

Voting stations are normally schools, and a good amount of those in rural areas are near churches. People go to Mass come hell or high water. Next weekend is the long weekend, not this weekend, so a lot of folk wont be planning a getaway, to stop them from voting.

DMC

From www.met.ie

Dry and clear in most areas Friday night, Saturday and Saturday night, but further showers in places also (mainly along the North and West coasts). Winds becoming light. Widespread ground frost both nights - severe in places. Risk overnight fog patches as well.

Set fair for polling day.

Typedef

What swing is needed for Yes to win.

Perhaps just a litany of lies about the Treaty being exclusively about expansion will suffice. Disregard Ireland's participation in the Rapid Reaction Force (with or without a constitutional ammendment prohibiting Ireland joining a European Army), disregard enhanced cooperation structrues leading to an Avant Garde of European Federalism and disregard the European Union supplanting national governments in the area of external Commerical negotiations and just stick to the lie about the Treaty being about expansion and that would be the best hope of securing a Yes vote.

Strange people keep telling me Ireland wants the Nice Treaty, to my mind the 'government' wants the Nice Treaty and thinks (rather arrogantly) that with enough jiggery pokery it can extract the desired result from the people and call it 'the will of the people' when it fact, it would be the will of the government.

To say that is to say that if the majority of people vote yes, their opinion doesn't matter as they have in some way been brainwashed by the government.
I don't agree, the issues are being well debated and the information provided by the referendum commission is top class.

In fact I have heard more people saying they are voting no as they do not understand the treaty than I have heard people saying they are voting Yes because they do not understand the treaty.
mm

dathi1

turnout of over 41% but it will be very close either way, perhaps a few hundred votes.

No power downgrade for Ireland. No to Nice on Saturday.

Ruari Quinn on Nice:

daveirl

This post has been deleted.

dathi1

your dead right davo they're too hard hitting against the yes campaign...ill provide links in future :rolleyes:

bertiebowl

All the YES side need is 80,000 more votes..........I think we can and will win this one

Typedef

I think the Yes side are arrogant, presumptuous, deserve a kicking and will get a kicking on Saturday.

No to Nice on Saturday kiddies, we're in this one for the species.

bonkey

Originally posted by Typedef
I think the Yes side are arrogant,

as opposed to a No advocate saying things like :
deserve a kicking
and
we're in this one for the species

presumptuous

as opposed to a No advocate saying things like :

, and will get a kicking on Saturday.

Hello, Mr Kettle? I have Typedef on the phone, and he's calling to say you're black.....

jc

PH01

These are the swings needed, as per constituency, for the 'Yes' side...

23.16% Dublin South-West
21.15% Kerry North
20.77% Donegal South-West
20.27% Donegal North-East
20.10% Dublin Central
18.25% Cork North-Central
16.33% Dublin North-West
16.01% Galway West
14.18% Dublin North-Central
12.96% Cork East
12.90% Dublin North-East
11.85% Dublin West
11.61% Dublin South-Central
11.50% Mayo
10.31% Sligo-Leitrim
10.14% Kerry South
9.85% Westmeath
9.64% Cork North-West
7.58% Wicklow
7.56% Cork South-Central
6.86% Limerick East
6.76% Louth
5.40% Longford-Roscommon
5.38% Galway East
5.31% Cork South-West
4.56% Kildare South
4.51% Carlow-Kilkenny
4.03% Dublin North
3.95% Meath
3.82% Cavan-Monaghan
3.54% Waterford
2.86% Tipperary South
2.74% Laois-Offaly
2.56% Wexford
2.54% Clare
1.41% Dublin South-East
1.38% Limerick West
1.36% Kildare North
1.13% Tipperary North
-3.76% Dublin South
-7.15% Dun Laoghaire