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When do you expect the next general election to be?

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  • 04-11-2002 8:47pm
    #1
    Victor
    Registered Users Posts: 78,404 ✭✭✭✭


    When do you expect the next general election to be? Realisticly, not a wishlist.

    Notes:

    The election must, by law, be held by May 2007 (5 years), but the law could be changed to the Constitutional limit of May 2009 (7 years).

    Local, Presidential, elections are due in the next 2 years.

    The government is quite stable numbers wise and could get separate support from other parties / groups if it loses TDs (break-up of coalition, death, resignation, defection, losing by-elections).

    No FF government that has lasted to the end of its first term has lasted more than about 3 years in the second term.

    The pattern indicates FF will be in the next government. 
    1977	FF govmt:	FF
1981	Coalition:	FG/Lab
1982	FF govmt:	FF
1982	Coalition:	FG/Lab
1987	FF govmt:	FF
1989	Coalition:	FF/PD
1992	FF govmt:	FF/Lab
1995	Coalition:	FG/Lab/DL
1997	FF govmt:	FF/PD
2002	Coalition:	FF/PD

    The SSIA money will come on-line from April 2006 to May 2007.

    Bertie Ahern will soon be the longest serving Taoiseach since at least the 1970s.

    When do you expect the next general election to be? 7 votes

    2002
    0% 0 votes
    2003
    0% 0 votes
    2004
    28% 2 votes
    2005
    14% 1 vote
    2006
    14% 1 vote
    2007
    14% 1 vote
    after 2007 or not at all
    28% 2 votes


Comments

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    #2
    bonkey
    Registered Users Posts: 15,443 ✭✭✭✭bonkey


    Your chart should read :
    1977	FF govmt:	FF
1981	Coalition:	FG/Lab
1982	FF govmt:	FF
1982	Coalition:	FG/Lab
1987	FF govmt:	FF
1989	Coalition:	FF/PD
1992	Coalition:	FF/Lab
1995	Coalition:	FG/Lab/DL
1997	Coalition:	FF/PD
2002	Coalition:	FF/PD

    All we can say is that it is highly unlikely a govt will be formed without FF, unless there is a dramatic shift in voting demographics.

    It is also highly unlikely that FF will be able to maintain a government on their own, again unless there is a dramatic shift in voting demos.

    Conclusion...expect another FF-led coalition.

    jc


  • Options
    #3
    daveirl
    Closed Accounts Posts: 14,483 ✭✭✭✭daveirl


    This post has been deleted.


  • Options
    #4
    mike65
    Closed Accounts Posts: 88,978 ✭✭✭✭mike65


    FFS! We're only just over the last one Victor.

    This government is, something shocking aside, going to run a full term. Its more secure than the last was and the opposition is nowhere.

    Mike.


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    #5
    DMC
    Registered Users Posts: 10,726 ✭✭✭✭DMC


    Go easy on him, Mike, he cant wait to press the buttons on his electronic vote :D

    2007, full term.


  • Options
    #6
    Victor
    Registered Users Posts: 78,404 ✭✭✭✭Victor


    Originally posted by mike65
    FFS! We're only just over the last one Victor.
    I'm just hoping you will be able to use you democratic right soon .... :D

    Bonkey, I am quite happy with my chart, all I am saying is FF never have a minority government / working majority / absolute majority by themselves twice in a row.

    And the changes in demographics are happening. Note that "left wing" parties and independents now outnumber FG.


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