Most Europeans won't bother with DSL

dahamsta

ENN

Scepticism among the public about broadband remains high in Europe with the "broadband revolution" appearing to some way off, a research company has said.

Jupiter Research said it found that the majority of existing European Internet users are either unlikely to upgrade to broadband or do not want it at all.

A quarter of Web surfers said they would not get a high-speed connection and nearly 30 percent were unlikely to get one. This compared with 26 percent of respondents who said that they were likely to upgrade from normal dial-up connections, 12 percent said they were neither likely nor unlikely, and 8 percent were unsure.

Its research also revealed that broadband penetration rates within Europe vary dramatically from 7 percent in the UK to 29 percent in Sweden. Of the other countries it studied, Germany and Italy had 8 percent penetration, France 11 percent, and Spain 17 percent. The survey did not cover Ireland.

[...]

Typedef

I honestly think that article is pants. People will invest in broadband if those people think that it makes financial sense. For example if you are leasing an isdn line @ €30 from €ircom plus bills and you compare that cost to a €50 dsl offer from EsatBT and you were to understand the difference between a 64k connection and a 256k connection, you would be mad to waste your money on ISDN.

Thus public awareness about what the technologies are and what they do, is the only barrier to spreading broadband once it is broadly (no pun) available.

BigEejit

The survey did not cover Ireland.

Because their spell checker went mental when they tried to type in 0.00000001 % ...:D

Dustaz

Thats a strange article, on one hand it represents the grim truth as far as the internet is concerned to a lot of people. On the other hand, theres a case of "so whats the point" (more on this later)

In all the broadband discussions here, its been acknowledged that it is a niche product. However, as time goes on and more and more "stuff" migrates online, more and more people will feel the need for more bandwith.

Originally posted by Typedef
People will invest in broadband if those people think that it makes financial sense. For example if you are leasing an isdn line @ €30 from €ircom plus bills and you compare that cost to a €50 dsl offer from EsatBT and you were to understand the difference between a 64k connection and a 256k connection, you would be mad to waste your money on ISDN.

The people that the article is referring to have probably never even seen ISDN. They are simply the people who use the internet for less than 2 hours a week to send and recieve the odd email and look at a webpage or two. For them broadband is not an option. For these people, even FRIACO isnt an option unless its dirt cheap.

Thus public awareness about what the technologies are and what they do, is the only barrier to spreading broadband once it is broadly (no pun) available.

Absolutely, If people were more aware of broadband and aware of the wider aspects of what is available online, there would be more interest. However, the simple fact is that the people referred to above just dont bother with Teh Intraweb and will not pay anything more than they need to.

Before anyone starts quoting South Korea at me, Look at America. They have had a FRIACO arrangement from day one on the internet. Broadband rollouts have proceeded nicely in general and yet they still only have a penetration rate of 10%.

I know i sound depressingly like eircon (no demand....). The difference is that i know that once you remove these people from the equation, it still leaves a sizable amount of demand for broadband and one that it makes no financial sense to ignore. So 55% of people dont want broadband eh? What about the OTHER 45% who do? Thats a fairly large target audience if you ask me.

De Rebel

I've been around long enought to smile anytime I see one of these *people will never need......* articles

I can remember *people will never need.....*
80286, cause its only for extreme high end business users
20mb HD, cause they cant even fill the 10Mb one they have
Windows, cause they don't multi task
and so on

people love faster bigger better. the article is tosh.

Dustaz

rebel, sorry to be blunt but your wrong. Not only is there people who still use windows 95 but theres still plenty of people who dont own even own pcs.

Think of all the PC owners you know, how many have a gf4? How many have a cd writer? For example, i dont have a scanner because i really dont need one. I still think that scanners should be available even though i put myself in the 'unlikely to get one' category.

BigEejit

But there is also always an element who have to have the latest gadget and there are also people who get broadband bundled in with cable TV ......in the UK, my sister got broadband for a small bit extra on to her cable subscription ... and she only goes on the internet now and again (i.e. computer turned off) ...(she had no idea how much she pissed me off with that comment )

BKtje

BigEejit the article was talking about DSL not cable which (afaik) has nothign at all to do with tv cable etc

DSL isnt supplied over the tv cables and therefore requires extra installation costs.

I agree with the fact that a lot of people probably dont think they need it. If you dont use the internet a whole lot and already have flat rate 24/7 subscription, a 512k (or whatever) connection
for however more would be money wasted as ud never really use it enough to make the extra money worthwhile. (especially if all u did was browse some websites.) Still think the article is a bit of a waste of spacr tho.

(plz point out any mistakes cos i awlays seem to make a fewl of myself when i post on this board )

Dustaz

The article is about a survey about broadband, not dsl in particular.

De Rebel

Originally posted by Dustaz
rebel, sorry to be blunt but your wrong. Not only is there people who still use windows 95 but theres still plenty of people who dont own even own pcs.

Think of all the PC owners you know, how many have a gf4? How many have a cd writer? For example, i dont have a scanner because i really dont need one. I still think that scanners should be available even though i put myself in the 'unlikely to get one' category.

I make it a point not to answer back when a mod speaks as it is bad form and leads to complications but I’ll make an exception in this case. Let me expand on the point I made in my previous post:

Moore’s Law (as adapted over time) asserts that the computational power available at a particular price doubles every 18 months.

Gates Law states "The speed of software halves every 18 months"

The interaction of these two laws together with other developments in hardware capacity and speed and software functionality (and bloat) creates a computing environment which is in a constant state of change.

Much of the hardware/software/standards that were state of the art at a point in time in the past are still capable of working to specification today. 14.4 modems, BBS services, IBM XT PCs, Epson FX80 printers, WordStar, etc. Indeed some of these remain in use in niche situations. But the great majority of people move on, partly driven by the fact that software developers tend to write for current hardware specification.

A contention that “A quarter of Web surfers said they would not get a high-speed connection and nearly 30 percent were unlikely to get one” without a timeframe is nonsense. They will, not this year, but some day. If people had been asked similar questions in the past about technology which they now have in their homes the answer would also have been No.

My sister moved to Stockholm 8 weeks ago. She was on the phone last night complaining that there was a ridiculous delay in the installation of her “broadband connection thing” and that having to use the house phone to connect to the internet was a terrible nuisance. If I had asked her 10 weeks ago while she still lived on this fair Isle “Do you intend getting a broadband Internet connection the answer would have been (1) a what? (2) No.

There will always be different categories of users. The people signing up for broadband now fall into the “early adopter” category. The others will follow. And Microsoft will lead them. I have already seen 2 software upgrades from major US companies which assume broadband connections.

If the article stated that these people will not get broadband within 24 months, I would agree wholeheartedly. For the article to state that these people will not get broadband without setting a timeframe is tosh. My original contention and I stand by it, irrespective of the mod’s opinion.

Lastly if anybody has a Jupiter Research subscription perhaps they could enlighten us with a little more detail on the survey.

spongebob

He did mention

IBM XT PCs, Epson FX80 printers, WordStar

sheeut, 128k Dot Matrix and ^k wth everything

I remember them all, dimly and getting more so.

You left out another technology from the mid 80's that also seems vaguely ridiculous to us now.

the 1200 Baud all singing all dancing modem with xon xoff.

sure twas only around 1993/4 that the standard comms port could go over 19200kbps , now we have USB2 at 480Mbps

M

De Rebel

Originally posted by BigEejit
......in the UK, my sister got broadband for a small bit extra on to her cable subscription ... and she only goes on the internet now and again (i.e. computer turned off) ...(she had no idea how much she pissed me off with that comment )

my thoughts exactly when my sister came out with her comment last night (see post above). All that capacity and it gets used browsing IKEA catalogs, Darina's recipes and sending 3 e-mails a week.......... grrrrrrrrrrrrrrr

SkepticOne

What's with this "majority" thing? Is there going to be a referendum on the issue shortly? If so, can we also have a referendum on public libraries.

Point is, companies don't need "majority" approval in order to provide a service. They are aware that they need some demand, but there's no need to have a majority.

I also agree with De Rebel, in that this only refers to the current situation. If you had asked the public about sony walkmans before they came out, then you would have got very predictable results.

There were plenty of people who were skeptical about TV before it became popular with many people believing it was a sort of visual radio.

ENN have chosen to take an unusual slant on the issue.

De Rebel

Originally posted by Muck
sheeut, 128k Dot Matrix and ^k wth everything

and ESCQ/142/158/654/789/321/456/287/516 to get bold printing in your spreadsheet

the 1200 Baud all singing all dancing modem with xon xoff.

and the countless hours of amusement with the Hayes manual trying to figure the AT stuff, not to mention the S registers!

Friday. Time for a nostalgic pint.

Dustaz

Steady on Rebel, im not going to slap ye for having a different opinion than me:)

What you are saying is pretty widely known. The people carrying out this survey would im sure be well aware of the fact that new tech is constantly being adopted. Timeframe is not an issue, the survey deals with how people feel about broadband now not how they will feel about it in 2/3 years or when it is required to 'keep up'.


What this says to telcos (and lets face it, it was probably commisioned by either a telco or a concerned party) is that there is still ignorance of the benefits of broadband and marketing is needed to maximise broadband sales.

I know plenty of people who have moved away and some, like Rebels sister have adopted broadband. I also know a lot of people that didnt. For example, 71% of her new neighbours;)

It would be interesting to know whether this was a commisioned survey and if so, who commisioned it.

MrAbc

Hi,
I agree totally with the idea that a company only needs a viable market to sell a product! Unfortunately, being part the (initially?) frustrated market is the **** end of the timeline

Of course, another result of customers' ignorance of any new, improved technologies is that some companies feel they are secure with their present customer base and don't have to exert themselves too much to keep them "happy"!!

I think I'm talking myself into supporting state-run bodge-jobs... emm, communism anyone?? LOL
- oh, wait, we have our own brand of EIRe COMmies.... just the ticket... and what a great little job they do...

Originally posted by SkepticOne
There were plenty of people who were skeptical about TV before it became popular with many people believing it was a sort of visual radio.

I was following you well...but you've confused me now... is TV not like a sort of visual radio?? :-))

Regards,
MrAbc.

SkepticOne

Originally posted by MrAbc
I was following you well...but you've confused me now... is TV not like a sort of visual radio?? :-)

In a purely technical sense, yes.

eircomtribunal

Originally posted by SkepticOne
What's with this "majority" thing?
ENN have chosen to take an unusual slant on the issue.

Could not agree more with your view.

ENN's title line is simply putting an awful misguided spin on the survey.
26 percent want the new product. Another 12 percent are still undecided. What a great result!
Any other marketer would be over the moon with such a result for a new product.
Now let us give those 26 percent their broadband and more will want it.

The direction of this sort of spin - and we find more of the same in the ODTR's FUTURE DEVELOPMENT OF BROADBAND paper - is awful, because it is misguiding politicians into thinking they need to waste more taxpayers money into useless demand side stimulation.

Peter

BigEejit

ENN's title line is simply putting an awful misguided spin on the survey.

Is this ENN's spin on the survey or is it the survey itself? are they are repeating it? ....as was mentioned earlier in the thread this was probably comissioned by a telco ... so they have a vested interest .. and in this case they may have wanted to take "the glass is half empty" point of view so they have something to point at when a few of their customers start making noise about broadband and they dont want to spend the cash ...
like Eircon are saying "there is no demand" in the rural areas (without doing a survey in the rural areas (or any area for that matter) to gauge interest in broadband, a "if I cant see it, it is not there" mentality)

pork99

"the majority of existing European Internet users are either unlikely to upgrade to broadband or do not want it at all."
Jupiter Research


"I think there is a world market for maybe five computers."
Thomas Watson, chairman of IBM, 1943


"I have traveled the length and breadth of this country and talked with the best people, and I can assure you that data processing is a fad that won't last out the year."
The editor in charge of business books for Prentice Hall, 1957


"But what is it good for?"
Engineer at the Advanced Computing Systems Division of IBM, 1968, commenting on the microchip.


"There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home."
Ken Olson, president, chairman and founder of Digital
Equipment Corp., 1977


"This 'telephone' has too many shortcomings to be seriously
considered as a means of communication. The device is inherently of no value to us."
Western Union internal memo, 1876.


"The wireless music box has no imaginable commercial value. Who would pay for a message sent to nobody in particular?"
David Sarnoff's associates in response to his urgings for
investment in the radio in the 1920s.


"We don't like their sound, and guitar music is on the way out."
Decca Recording Co. rejecting the Beatles, 1962.


"Heavier-than-air flying machines are impossible."
Lord Kelvin, president, Royal Society, 1895.


"Airplanes are interesting toys but of no military value."
Marechal Ferdinand Foch, Professor of Strategy, Ecole
Superieure de Guerre.

eircomtribunal

Originally posted by pork99
"the majority of existing European Internet users are either unlikely to upgrade to broadband or do not want it at all."
Jupiter Research

"Who the hell wants to hear actors talk?"
-- H.M. Warner, Warner Brothers -- 1927

"Everything that can be invented has been invented."
-- Charles H. Duell, Commissioner of the U.S. Patent Office -- 1899.

"The world potential market for copying machines is 5000 at most."
-- IBM to the founders of Xerox -- 1959

"The average American family hasn't time for television."
-- The New York Times -- 1939

"There will never be a mass market for motor cars - about 1,000 in Europe - because that is the limit on the number of chauffeurs available!"
-- Spokesman for Daimler Benz

"Man will never reach the moon regardless of all future scientific advances."
-- Dr. Lee De Forest, inventor of the vacuum tube -- 1957

"I think I may say without contradiction that when the Paris Exhibition closes, electric light will close with it, and no more will be heard of it."
-- Erasmus Wilson, Professor at Oxford University -- 1878




Who'll find the first newpaper article graced with the Jupiter survey spin?

Peter

Dustaz

Originally posted by eircomtribunal
ENN's title line is simply putting an awful misguided spin on the survey.
26 percent want the new product. Another 12 percent are still undecided. What a great result!
Any other marketer would be over the moon with such a result for a new product.
Now let us give those 26 percent their broadband and more will want it.

This is the original point i was making. According to that survey, when you discount the peoplw who arent interested now, theres a massive market waiting for broadband.

at the moment , theres still a lot of people who dont want/need broadband and although that will change through inevitability, its not going to be overnight. What i cant understand is why those people matter to companys with such a large market.

"I think there is a world market for maybe five computers."
Thomas Watson, chairman of IBM, 1943

It took about 35 years for him to be made to look utterly wrong (i.e. computers becoming mass produced items for personal use). I hope it doesnt take that long to see 1 meg dsl here

IP Hummer

Originally posted by dahamsta
ENN

Have we missed something? Has the growth rate of DSL service sign-up in Europe gone into a tailspin overnight? Most DSL providers can barely keep with up with demand. Unless they are based in Ireland, where the not so bright incumbent charges 200-300% of the going rate because they can get away with it. But for how long…?

This so called “research” – is surely akin to “The National Enquirer” or “The Sunday Sport” calling themselves a “newspaper”?

If I had a telephone exchange with 10,000 customers and only 10 or 20% of them subscribed to, or expressed an interest in DSL in 2002, I would be laughing all the way to the bank. I would rush to serve the needs of the early adopters as quickly as possible – by under promising and over delivering.

If I did not, I have no doubt that my bastard competitors would hijack my client base, unbundling “MY” monopoly owned copper loops, sucking up to early adopters of DSL, and rolling out services (USING MY LAND) far faster than I would want to provide similar bandwidth abusing product in the circumstances.

Before long the competitors would be offering MY CUSTOMERS voice over DSL (VoDSL) – complete with four “free” phone lines and broadband internet access over a single copper pair for about what I charge for a basic rate ISDN connection – using assets STOLEN from yours truly’s 100% monopoly.

Only an idiot would expect a majority of the population to have, or express a wish to have a broadband connection in 2002. The same held true for the horseless carriage when it was first introduced. Not to mention colour TV in the late 1960s. ‘till the neighbours got it!

Particularly in “my” franchise area where we have spent millions on delaying tactics, buying time, frivolous litigation against state and federal authorities, bribery, media manipulation, PR stunts, and relentless advertising to promote our misleadingly labelled “high speed” money sucking dial-up analog and ISDN services.

Times are a changing and I would be a quick-seller of telco shares / bonds that weren’t quick-sellers of broadband at reasonable prices!


IP Hummer

Blade

Originally posted by Dustaz
It took about 35 years for him to be made to look utterly wrong (i.e. computers becoming mass produced items for personal use). I hope it doesnt take that long to see 1 meg dsl here

I'll never forget just over 20 years ago in school when we were one of the luckier schools (in Dublin4 ahem) to have a computer. It was some apple thing. Anyway the maths teacher showed us the cool thing you could do with a computer and that was to do up a shopping list for your house. He then said to us at the end of the class ' in 10 years time all of you will have one of these things in your house just like you all have phones now ' I clearly remember saying to myself ' yeah right wouldn't it be just easier to write the f*ckin shopping down on a peice of paper! '. Anyway I only found out later on that the older students had space invaders on it and that it did indeed serve a real purpose. That maths teacher is currently the principal.

Moral of the story, if you can't see the potential in something you don't understand of course your not going to be interested in it.

OHP

Actually an awfull lot of people that have the Internet still dont understand what BB is and they certainly dont know the difference between it and a 56k Modem becaouse they have never actually experienced it or even seen it. It might be a thought somewhere along the line for someone to set up a demonstration and to bring people along to actually show them what its all about?


OHP

Blade

Well perhaps IrelandOFFLine should carry out it's own survey and publish the results.

eircomtribunal

Originally posted by Blade
Well perhaps IrelandOFFLine should carry out it's own survey and publish the results.

Blade,
the survey is ok - as far as one can say that without having seen the real thing - it is really the spin that was put on the results that is manipulative. Wonder which papers will fall for it next after Enn.

Peter

spongebob

apart from ENN it was covered on the BBC too.

The Beeb did a much better job with it.

IP Hummer

Originally posted by Muck
apart from ENN it was covered on the BBC too.

The Beeb did a much better job with it.

Not really. It's just an insular British (or perhaps I should say Unitedkingdomistic) slant on a story that has done the rounds all over the place.

See also: http://www.theregister.co.uk/content/6/28014.html

Anyone got an URL to the story without the misleading spin? Or does it go back to the so called "report" itself?

IP Hummer

SkepticOne

Another one in the Sunday Times here. Registration required.

This one is interesting for a number of reasons.

1. Eircom is quated using the "lack of content" argument (thanks ODTR).
2. Article talks about the high cost but fails to say that it is one of the highest in the world for entry-level DSL.
3. Talks about ESAT's EUR 50 (ex VAT) price as a slight reduction even though it is almost 45% and fails to mention offerings from other companies which are lower still.
4. Confuses fibre-rings project with DSL and suggests that the Government will be reluctant to proceed because of the poor sales of Eircom's DSL.
5. Article only interviews Eircom.

morges

Originally posted by SkepticOne
Another one in the Sunday Times here. Registration required.

This one is interesting for a number of reasons.

1. Eircom is quated using the "lack of content" argument (thanks ODTR).
2. Article talks about the high cost but fails to say that it is one of the highest in the world for entry-level DSL.
3. Talks about ESAT's EUR 50 (ex VAT) price as a slight reduction even though it is almost 45% and fails to mention offerings from other companies which are lower still.
4. Confuses fibre-rings project with DSL and suggests that the Government will be reluctant to proceed because of the poor sales of Eircom's DSL.
5. Article only interviews Eircom.

Eircom are in bed with the Murdoch group to spread the crap Sky TV product all over Ireland. Eircom presumably hopes to kill off the cable TV companies in the process and further enhance their monopoly.

In most other countries, the incumbent telco has been involved in setting up the satellite digital TV platform for that country.

In Ireland's case, the incumbent telco has done everything possible to kill off an Irish digital television platform.

Is it any surprize that Murdoch's sunday tabloid (in broadsheet format) only interviewed eircom!

morges