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An asteroid hitting earth

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  • 01-04-2003 10:39pm
    #1
    Horsefumbler
    Registered Users Posts: 1,823 ✭✭✭


    now this is not a joke! i was wondering what are the odds of this happening?


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    #2
    halenger
    Hosted Moderators Posts: 2,094 ✭✭✭halenger


    Well it depends on which asteroid!

    It's possible to calculate the probability for specific asteroids. For example the asteroid that was going to hit us in 2019 if i remember correctly had an insignificant chance of hitting us. It was only hyped by the media.

    What you may or may not know is that asteroids do hit all the time. They just vary in size. The large, global killers, hit once every 100,000 years on average. That'll give you a bit of an idea.

    I don't remember all the statistics in general. I wrote the feature article on it in Astronomy & Space Magazine September 2002 issue. That had all the details in it. I'm sure you won't have much trouble finding the details on the internet though. Try Google!


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    #3
    Agar
    Closed Accounts Posts: 63 ✭✭Agar


    You have a greater chance of being hit by a falling asteroid than you have of winning the National Lottery. Indeed you have a greater chance of being killed by a number 16 Dublin Bus going the wrong way down a one-way street in Cork than you have of winning the Lottery, but go figure!


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    #4
    Agar
    Closed Accounts Posts: 63 ✭✭Agar


    Go straight to skyandtelescope.com, or try astronomydaily.com They are the two best general interest astronomy sites on the net. If you can't find it there, you'll find it through their links pages.


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    #5
    BoltzmannBrain
    Registered Users Posts: 97 ✭✭BoltzmannBrain


    Time to build that bunker I always dreamed of.


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    #6
    BoltzmannBrain
    Registered Users Posts: 97 ✭✭BoltzmannBrain


    As i understand it, they say what killed the Dinosaurs was a once in a hundred million chance. Shame really, would have loved to play poker against them.


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    #7
    Speedwell
    Registered Users Posts: 3,809 ✭✭✭Speedwell


    BoltzmannBrain wrote: »
    As i understand it, they say what killed the Dinosaurs was a once in a hundred million chance. Shame really, would have loved to play poker against them.

    Well, there you go. Just wait for the next one-in-one-hundred-million chance to come along. Don't hold your breath ;)


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    #8
    Maximus Alexander
    Registered Users Posts: 13,080 ✭✭✭✭Maximus Alexander


    BoltzmannBrain wrote: »
    As i understand it, they say what killed the Dinosaurs was a once in a hundred million chance.

    That's sort of meaningless - what constitutes a chance? Is each minute a chance? Each hour? Each human lifetime? Needs units.


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    #9
    endacl
    Registered Users Posts: 22,311 ✭✭✭✭endacl


    Depends on the timescale, OP. Ultimately, the odds are 1:1.


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    #10
    Speedwell
    Registered Users Posts: 3,809 ✭✭✭Speedwell


    endacl wrote: »
    Depends on the timescale, OP. Ultimately, the odds are 1:1.

    No, not necessarily. It might never happen, given a finite timescale, and sometime in that finite time, the odds could perhaps change to "given the current situation, it isn't possible".


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    #11
    _Tombstone_
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,006 ✭✭✭_Tombstone_


    BoltzmannBrain wrote: »
    Time to build that bunker I always dreamed of.

    13 year thread bump!!


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    #12
    _Tombstone_
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,006 ✭✭✭_Tombstone_


    Are We Due For An Extinction Event On Earth?


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