What happens if the Pond gets any Frostier?

The Corinthian

This piece is interesting in so far as it touches on the cultural (as well as the political and strategic) divide between Europe continental and the US (further comment below):

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/2930565.stm

How deep is US-Europe rift?
By Steve Schifferes
BBC News Online, Washington

As the war against Iraq moves to its close, relations between the US and Europe have reached a new low.

The disagreement over the role of the United Nations in rebuilding Iraq is likely to continue, and the bitterness in the United States against its betrayal by allies like France are not diminishing.

Meanwhile, the standing of the United States among the European public has plummeted.

And foreign policy experts say that the rift is deep, could be difficult to mend, and may spill over into other areas.

US rethink

There are several deeper reasons for the split.

According to Jessica Matthews, the president of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, the fundamental difference is that the events of 11 September changed attitudes towards international relations much more in the United States than elsewhere.

It was the increased sense of vulnerability that led the US to consider pre-emptive action, because it felt it no longer had the luxury of time to wait for allies to come on board.

But it makes it much more difficult to envisage the kind of global cooperation that the US had previously sought.

Cold War


At another level, since the Cold War ended, Europe is no longer seen to be of the same strategic importance to the United States, according to Dr Christoph Bertram, the former director of the Institute for Strategic Studies.

This has come as an enormous shock to the Europeans, who have suddenly realised that they are no longer indispensable to America -and that America was no longer backing their project to unify Europe.

Dr Bertram says that the rift is so bad that President Bush has not spoken to the German chancellor, Gerhard Schroeder, for many months.

He says that only closer collaboration between France and Germany, especially at the military level, will be able to redress the strategic balance and make the US take Europe seriously again.

Cultural differences

For author Robert Kagan, it is the growing cultural divide between Europe and America is just as important as the different strategic interest.

Mr Kagan, whose new book argues that "it is time to stop pretending that Europeans and Americans share a common view of the world," argues that Europe has developed a outlook that stresses peace and the rule of law, which is modelled on the creation of the European Union.

Americans, he says, are more militaristic and look at the world in black-and-white terms, as they assume the role of the world's sole superpower.

It is, he implies a natural split between the strong and the weak, who always want the rule of law to restrain the strong.

Mr Kagan says the change is rooted in the whole post-war experience of the two sides, and will be very difficult to change.

But Iraq was the "perfect storm" which brought out all the differences at once.

However, other crisis points like Iran or North Korea could also highlight the difference in approach, with Europe preferring engagement and the US confrontation, according to former National Security Council deputy James Steinberg.

Damaged institutions

It is the international institutions that are designed to bridge these deep differences in ideology.

But Ivo Daalder of the Brookings Institution think-tank argues that the institutions of international cooperation have been fundamentally damaged.

He warns that spin-offs could occur in areas such as Nato or the World Trade Organisation, where the US and the EU are currently negotiating a highly contentious trade deal.

And he says there is no going back to the cosy old world of the transatlantic partnership.

He argues that the reconstruction of Iraq could be an opportunity to build a bridge back to Europe by involving the UN.

But with little sign of the Bush administration adopting that approach, it seems likely when the fog of war lifts it will reveal a chasm.

I find it is interesting that both Ireland and Britain seem ideologically split, or even favouring the US to the rest of Europe for reasons of language, history and, in particular for Ireland, family. As such this divide may be less visible to us in Ireland than our European cousins (even in many of those nations that supported the present conflict).

Of course the question arises, should the divide grow wider, which way shall we or should we jump?

Typedef

Irish people regard themselves as not accepted by Europe (because on many levels it's quite true) and the links to Britain and the US are difficult to ignore.

So between Ireland's links to the US and Britain and the fact that Britain will 'always' align itself to the US before Europe, Ireland will be pulled along in Britain's wake and the rejection of the Nice Treaty I see an opposition to European Federalism as a new paradigm forming before the war (with Nice) and even more since the Iraqi war in Ireland. Ultimately Irish people will follow the example of the United States, so in awe of American culture and American power are the Irish, it is a honeypot, that Irish people will gripe about, but, ultimately a honeypot Irish people will fall in line with, if it comes to a straight choice between pax-Americana and Europe : example Shannon airport.

In this sense Irish and British membership of the EU will on many levels exponenciate the US' desire not to have Europe become an opposed Superpower, since Britain and Ireland will be in Europe, but, quite opposed to creation of a rival bloc to pax-Americana.

Quite an efficient proxy of US interests in Europe.

Vis-a-vis Ireland and Federalism, co-operation to facilitate trade for sure, but, Federalism is difficult to contemplate for a nation that for right or for wrong regards itself as untermenchen in Europe. Irish people have an inferiority complex about England and feel in many ways, dictated to by Europe. The US offers the American dream to Irish people, not to mention the fact that the US is sympathetic to the Irish position on Northern Ireland, Jaques Chirac and Chancellor Schroder are not.

Irish American support of Irish nationalism, always makes American opinion in Ireland, much more relevant then continental opinion in Ireland. Thus if Europe and the US do end up as competing adversaries, Ireland will not be a part of a Federal European structure.

Not that I think the US has 'any' more regard for what anybody in Ireland thinks of world affairs then Europeans do, but, a common culture between the English speaking world is difficult to ignore. The billions of Euro worth of investment in Ireland by US companies and UK companies is similarly difficult to ignore.

Myself, I don't care a damn about the US or Europe.
You can't eat a flag.

Wook

good piece of reading material and a interesting question.

I'd say from the reaction we had on the boards about Shannon, that Irish people tend to follow their wallet rather then ideology.
(don't get all upset now)
And there was in fact little news about the Irish in the states and any relationship that relates to the conflict at hand.
And what kind of relationship do you actually have with the UK anyway ? Except the history that was pretty bloody and messy.
(which I am not going into , simply because lack of knowledge)
Do you feel obliged to support UK and USA because of family ?

Europe created a decent Ireland and a working one. EU gave this country a future. Little is being said about this , which can once again proof my point that Ireland politics rather follow the money.
Could there be a problem that Ireland considers itself too much of an underdog with too little to say ? (which I consider bollox, as Ireland can have the political impact they want, if they so desire)

Johnmb

Ireland would be very foolish to continue to rely on the US for investment, or anything else for that matter. Europe is where our future lies, not the US. We can effect the decisions of Europe, we can't do anything about the decisions of the US, so common sense would dictate that we invest our time and energy on the side that we can influence to further our own agendas and goals. The US will drop its investment to Ireland as soon as it suits them to do it, the impact on us will not matter to them, so we should be preparing for it by encouraging more investment from Europe, not the US.

Biffa Bacon

We should align ourselves with the US and UK. The French and Germans have acted despicably before and throughout this war.

Johnmb

The French and Germans have acted despicably before and throughout this war.

Yeah, real despicable to expect international law to be upheld if it doesn't suit the US.

Biffa Bacon

Originally posted by Johnmb
Yeah, real despicable to expect international law to be upheld if it doesn't suit the US.

The US were trying to uphold international law by getting the 17 UNSC resolutions enforced. France and Germany opposed this.

Johnmb

So the way to enforce UNSC resolutions is to break the UN Charter? :rolleyes:

Plus, according to the inspectors, Iraq WAS complying with resolution 1441. They were actively disarming, and pro-actively assisting the inspectors (the latter being above and beyond the terms of 1441).

seamus

Originally posted by Biffa Bacon
The US were trying to uphold international law by getting the 17 UNSC resolutions enforced. France and Germany opposed this.

If the US are so interested in upholding international law, why don't they do something about Israel and its 65+ resolutions breaches? Stop talking soundbites Biffa.

Personally, I am a little concerned at the implications of the current world stage.

I would far prefer Ireland to push on for a United Europe and a world of peace, rather than us going along with the US and UK as they march along on their crusades of righteousness.

As bad as it sounds, I'd like to see the US economy crippled quite soon, as IMO, someone is going to start throwing nukes, and I can't see any reason why it wouldn't be Bush.

Typedef

I would far prefer Ireland to push on for a United Europe and a world of peace, rather than us going along with the US and UK as they march along on their crusades of righteousness.

What so we can get caught up in Franco-German crusades of righteousness?

Remember France had the second largest Empire the world has ever seen and the Germans tried and failed to take over Europe twice.

To me, it really seems like a choice between two regiemes of questionable morality (like most 'countries').

One regieme the USA has the power and the other regieme the Europeans want the power.

Who cares which one has that power, and why should this country participate as King makers? It makes much more sense to let the two power blocs settle their differences and then align ourselves to the victors.

Right and wrong, doesn't stop the powerful using their power or stop the weak coveting power, so why go off on a crusade to restore the power of old Europe, when old Europe really does 'less' for Ireland then the US.

Again, you can't eat a flag and you sure as hell can't eat righteously indignant moral fortitude.

Éomer of Rohan

I think a United Europe is by far the best idea (though I make it clear now that I would prefer neither if possible - which it isn't) because it is absolutely necessary to have some sort of geo-political alliance to counterbalance the unbridled influence and power of the US which has shown itself to be dangerous in so many ways. I hold to this even if Europe had to make a deal with the devil and admit Russia and ally with China.

daveirl

This post has been deleted.

Originally posted by Johnmb
Ireland would be very foolish to continue to rely on the US for investment, or anything else for that matter. Europe is where our future lies, not the US. We can effect the decisions of Europe, we can't do anything about the decisions of the US, so common sense would dictate that we invest our time and energy on the side that we can influence to further our own agendas and goals. The US will drop its investment to Ireland as soon as it suits them to do it, the impact on us will not matter to them, so we should be preparing for it by encouraging more investment from Europe, not the US.

I find what you say here puzzling for two reasons.
1. Why would European companies set up in Ireland, if their main market is in europe, or elsewhere and 2. since the pot of money, coming our way is dwindling, ie we are soon to be net contributers to Europe, why should we dump the U.S , the bringer of 90,000 direct jobs here and countless thousands of jobs in anciliary services.
We should continue to encourage investment from wherever it comes.
mm

Hobbes

Originally posted by Man
IWe should continue to encourage investment from wherever it comes.
mm

Not at any cost. Certainly not where another country can dictate our policy at the threat of removing businesses.

Wook

i am not sure where that idea comes from that US government can dictate the cooperations where to setup business? Clearly it's completly the other way around ?

The Corinthian

A cultural and political divide has been brewing between the US and Europe (the US and Japan too, for that matter) for a while, certainly predating the present US administration. However, that’s what nations do - they disagree, but don’t necessarily fall out over such disagreements.

My own hope is that such a divide can probably be resolved amicably in the long run, however not if it is exasperated. Regrettably, the doctrine followed by the present US administration has done just that and set back diplomatic relations twenty years - even between the UK and the US the special relationship has been visibly strained.

My guess is that Europe and Japan will have learned not to rely upon the US for military and intelligence support and so we will probably see an increase in military spending throughout Europe and Japan in the next few years. However, that may well be the only fallout, if there are, as it were, no further shocks to the system. A re-election of the present US administration, on the other hand, will most certainly impact negatively on this process of diplomatic healing.

As for Ireland; she’s in between a rock and a hard place. The Irish economy is highly dependant on US owned industry, which in turn sees Ireland as a gateway to trade with continental Europe. Culturally, we may identify more closely with the US, but not as much as we may have twenty or thirty years ago. And so any deepening divide will greatly affect Ireland. And not in a good way.

In short, and as much as I choke at the concept, pray for a Democrat in the Whitehouse - otherwise we’re screwed

mike65

Originally posted by Typedef

You can't eat a flag.

Never a truer word.

The US-Europe arguement is a bit more complex than many seem to think, if only cos its Europe plainly does'nt speak with one voice. Europe seems to have become
shorthand for France-Germay. Many in Europe dont want federalism, many dont want to see see the Franco-German alliance controlling Europes destiny (whatever that might be). This is why both, esp France are hostile towards new countries joining. The new democracies in the East have no great sympathy for the Franch way of doing things and tend to belive in the kind of thrusting economics of the anglo-amercian model.
This is also why France has taken the view it has on Iraq
as it sees the chance to become continental Europes
guiding light...

As for which way do we jump, well we're in Europe and cant join the USA. Not that I'd much want to. We're
always going to be a bridgehead, with the UK, between
the States and the EU, and thats not a bad place to be.

Mike.

CCCP^

I think most Irish people, while on the surface, regard the whole current US administration with disdain, deep down they are for the most part content to look the other way at US interests in the Middle East, or anywhere else, and will readily co-operate to an extent, because of the close links, economically, socially and historically between Ireland and the United States.

You need only look at the action of our own goverment towards the war to find that Ireland's pro-american.

Being pro-american allows Ireland 'freedom of movement', which many people miss since were being sucked into Europe so much. But on the other hand, this great move towards Europe may be seen as a move away from America and Britain, in an effort to become less reliant upon the anglo-american dynamo.

Hobbes

Ok I'll bite. What do you mean by 'Freedom of movement' ?

Kell

Originally posted by Johnmb
Ireland would be very foolish to continue to rely on the US for investment, or anything else for that matter.

That should read IS foolish for depending on the US for any investment. I know one blue chip company that directly employs 4000 people here and at least 12,000 more in ancillary companies that is looking to cheaper pastures for relocation. Thats one, and I know of plenty that are at the moment rumouring relocation.

We are seriously in a rock and a hard place then because with US companies with drawing their interests here where do we get foreign investment from? As someone earlier pointed out, why would a generic european company move here if there product is for sale in "mainland" Europe.

For one, I would like to side with a united Europe. My gut feel is that I would prefer to be led by a group of thinkers than a trigger happy fúcking muppet hellbent on making America the dominant force on planet earth. I didn't see the poll on Shannon, but as far as I can tell, most of the current governments actions are made irrelevant of what the public interest or expression of public opinion. Before we turn our attention to what outside our own national borders should we be not looking inside and figuring out exactly how to get rid of the current farce in the Dáil and put in place people who represent what the people want?

K-