The Euro, Tories and a Labour Split?

Éomer of Rohan

It seems that the Euro may well be up for debate at the next election given the pending 5-point check and the statement by the Institute of Economics that these points are clear and Britain is read for the Euro. Brown says that the 5-point checks probably will not come out successful yet; Blair says that if they don't, politics may be intruding on economic policy. The Tories are hitting back left, right and centre (if the first and third exist in the Conservative party LOL) at new Labour and their apparently vacuous delaying policy w.r.t. a referendum over Europe; something which may be a make or break for both the Conservatives or Labour - so the real question is will a referendum occur before the close of parliament and if it does and the vote is negative, as more than likely it will be, will it break new Labour? If the referendum does not occur until the next parliament, for which Labour will more than likely win an unprecedented third term, will the result be any different and to what extent will this depend on Chancellor Brown's approval? Is there going to be a shift of power in Labour, in the aftermath of the war and now a new power play emerging?

Tories hit out at Labour
The 5 point compatibility test
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Captain Trips

Blair could talk bigman when Sterling strong, but 10% drop in value in 6 months means he probably knew it was going to happen (weakening of sterling) and was convinced that war would boost it. Then they could join and win short term economic success and latch on to the inevitable long-term success.

But it didn't and the TSerling is showing no signs of recovery. It will either be very very soon or very very very much later that UK joins the Euro.

Just for stats sake in case an argument ensues: currently
1 Euro = US$1.15067
1 Euro = ST£0.711284

(from xe.net).

Éomer of Rohan

I'd say it will not be until after the election, which puts Blair under pressure; Brown, it appears wants this to happen, but Blair looks very undecided; sterling hasn't recovered yet which puts the UK in a disadvantageous position vis a vis Euro-zone negotiations. Would joining the Euro-zone this soon after the US and France have been pissed off at each other be a slap in the face to the US do you think?

Captain Trips

I think it would indeed be a slap - but they must know that they have to be more econmically tied to the EU than the US in the future, or else they will lose out as the EU continues to expand.

Blair walked a tightrope on this one, because on one hand he had to balance war relations with the US, and on the other try and avoid alienation from the EU. As its stands, the UK is becoming very isolated on this side of the Atlantic as the Euro becomes more dominant.

That said, with the UK joining, it would boost the EU/Euro's power considerably, and maybe OPEC, etc., are waiting for such a thing to happen - if at all. Unfortunately it has such historical dominance in the world I still can't see any UK politician selling it the profoundly nationalistic UK public.

Victor

Originally posted by Captain Trips
Blair could talk bigman when Sterling strong, but 10% drop in value in 6 months means he probably knew it was going to happen (weakening of sterling) and was convinced that war would boost it. Then they could join and win short term economic success and latch on to the inevitable long-term success.

The dollar and Sterling have an odd relationship to the price of oil, this is part of the reason they have been having swings and roundabouts.

Sand

The UK is fine outside of Euro tbh ; It is in the common market and retains the remarkable ability - through its central bank - to set interest rates to suit the UK alone, rather than Europe as a whole. You cant dismiss the skeptics as simply being nationalisitc - they probably are to a large degreee but theres plenty of good reasons to retain monetary "independance". Mind you every single Irish person, pro or anti europe should be hoping and praying the UK enters the Euro as it would remove/reduce significant risks to the Irish economy.