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Brexit discussion thread XII (Please read OP before posting)

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    #7532
    Leroy42
    Registered Users Posts: 15,486 ✭✭✭✭Leroy42


    sondagefaux wrote: »
    But why not do it now, when there's an excellent reason and nobody would complain?

    The fact that they haven't requested an extension in these circumstances suggests they really are stupid enough to believe they won't need one.

    The EU should publicly force them to justify why they don't want an extension, given that its own state agency, Public Health England, is stating that up to 7.9 million people in the UK could require medical treatment in hospital, and that up to 10% of medical and care staff could be off sick at any one time:

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/15/uk-coronavirus-crisis-to-last-until-spring-2021-and-could-see-79m-hospitalised

    If this worst-case scenario happens, even at 25% of the levels predicted in the Public Health England report, how would it be possible for the UK to deal wiyh the changes to its trading relationship with the EU and deal with these coronavurus impacts at the same time?

    Because they think, just like their No Deal bluff, that the EU will actually be the one that caves. It's all about perception, the actualities or not important.

    Picture this. Instead of the big 'secret' meeting with Leo, Johnson simply rang up Barnier and agreed the same deal. He would have been mocked and called a traitor. The set piece was purely for his benefit so that he could look like he forced deal. As such, any review of the deal was met with the simple line "well everybody said he wouldn't get any deal, so it a success" and thus no actual review of the deal he struct.

    So they will claim to be gunning for a deal, this is just a delay in the meetings. That would be fine if they had any extra time, but they were always up against it. So they will continue to claim that no delay will be made, because to do otherwise would be to admit that everything is not 'oven ready'.

    So hope that either the pandemic clears quickly, or if it doesn't the EU ask for an extension and then Johnson can claim a victory.


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    #7533
    sondagefaux
    Registered Users Posts: 1,443 ✭✭✭sondagefaux


    Deleted User wrote: »
    I would imagine that technically, they've suspended their membership of Schengen, or at the very least broken the spirit of the EU laws around the Schengen agreement.


    UK was never in Schengen, so the point does not stand.

    The Schengen rules permit its members to bring in border checks or even to shut their borders for reasons of public health, national security etc.

    They normally have to notify the Commission in advance, although even this can be waived in emergencies.

    The point is that 'take back control of borders' was yet another empty phrase as even Schengen states, let alone non-Schengen EU states, retain control of their borders.


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    #7534
    Spook_ie
    Registered Users Posts: 10,896 ✭✭✭✭Spook_ie


    Spook_ie wrote: »
    Best achievable for who?, the EU or just a compromise because each and every country DOESN'T want a budget for the EU but a budget that suits themselves as much as possible.

    The EU is a failed/failing political experiment.

    Remember this, the whole EU is now proving exactly that, each little statelet within it is not for the EU but for itself.

    Ven de Leyen tearing her hair out trying to get an EU response to CoVid19 rather than throwing up borders between the statelets.


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    #7535
    Irish Praetorian
    Registered Users Posts: 1,745 ✭✭✭Irish Praetorian


    Spook_ie wrote: »
    Remember this, the whole EU is now proving exactly that, each little statelet within it is not for the EU but for itself.


    And presumably advice for at risk people to stay in their homes and get supplies from family members is evidence that countries don't work?


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    #7536
    Christy42
    Registered Users Posts: 7,868 ✭✭✭Christy42


    Spook_ie wrote: »
    Remember this, the whole EU is now proving exactly that, each little statelet within it is not for the EU but for itself.

    Ven de Leyen tearing her hair out trying to get an EU response to CoVid19 rather than throwing up borders between the statelets.

    Remember people. If we give a unified response Brussels is ordering us about. If we don't it is useless.

    Seriously though the EU does not pretend to be the authority on this point and neither should it. Different countries are in different situations here. They need to be handled differently. The EU will help when everyone needs to prop back up their economy after this mess is all done.


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    #7537
    beggars_bush
    Registered Users Posts: 4,364 ✭✭✭beggars_bush


    I see borisresign is trending on the Twitter in the uk


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    #7538
    BonnieSituation
    Registered Users Posts: 18,923 ✭✭✭✭BonnieSituation


    Spook_ie wrote: »
    Remember this, the whole EU is now proving exactly that, each little statelet within it is not for the EU but for itself.

    Ven de Leyen tearing her hair out trying to get an EU response to CoVid19 rather than throwing up borders between the statelets.

    Statelets? As in sovereign Nations that are doing what they believe is best for themselves while being members of the EU?

    Would you prefer a MORE coordinated response from the bureaucratic bully that is the EU commission so that you can come on here and complain that the EU aren't allowing sovereign Nations to control their borders?

    If I didn't know any better I'd say you're at the very least, being disingenuous.

    As it happens, I watched Ursula Van Der Leyen's clear and concise press conference that got to the point and she didn't seem at all perturbed by the enormity of the situation ahead. It's almost like, having professional, cool heads in positions of power is a good idea.


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    #7539
    BonnieSituation
    Registered Users Posts: 18,923 ✭✭✭✭BonnieSituation


    Christy42 wrote: »
    Remember people. If we give a unified response Brussels is ordering us about. If we don't it is useless.

    Seriously though the EU does not pretend to be the authority on this point and neither should it. Different countries are in different situations here. They need to be handled differently. The EU will help when everyone needs to prop back up their economy after this mess is all done.

    Snap.

    It's amazing how anyone can use anything to criticise anyone or anything to suit their agenda. Imagine that.


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    #7540
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    beggars_bush wrote: »
    I see borisresign is trending on the Twitter in the uk
    It seems to be as a result of the latest advice to not go to theatres, cinemas and other public venues while not ordering them to close. Very bad news for a business to be unsure whether to close or not. No chance of any compensation for loss of trade without a closure notice, apparently.



    Not Brexit related, in fact right now I expect that people in the UK really don't give two hoots as to how Brexit is going.


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    #7541
    J Mysterio
    Registered Users Posts: 11,035 ✭✭✭✭J Mysterio


    Bloody pandemic at the absolute worst time. What a disaster for the world. I thought Brexit was a hammerblow. That shook me for a month and obsessed me for years. This is just something else.


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    #7542
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 17,381 ✭ [Deleted User]


    If the UK's plan for 2020 was to play it hard and put the EU in a tight spot publicly, it seems that the virus will take away all of that. Threatening borders when EU countries are erecting their own just won't seem like as big a deal, and the papers won't give it the traction it would have otherwise. The turmoil every country will continue to face may weaken the British appetite for having this go on after the virus has left. This great sovereignty has so far meant the most lax approach of any country, and no word of actually using this newfangled control over its borders.

    Interesting times.


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    #7543
    Peregrinus
    Registered Users Posts: 26,102 ✭✭✭✭Peregrinus


    So, the situation seems to be this:

    1. The Commission has proposed that states collectively decide to impose a travel ban, in the form of a decision of heads of government of Schengen states and associates states (i.e non-EU states which participate in Schengen). The area that would be covered by this arrangement is being referred to as “the EU+ area”.

    2. The UK and Ireland are invited to particiate in the EU+ area as well. Or they can elect to remain outside. I think that each can make its own decision about this, but the Commission proposal does invite UK and Ireland to participate "taking into account the Common Travel Area"; that might be code for saying that either they both do or neither do.

    3. The rationale for the proposal is (a) states can act more effectively by taking a common approach, plus (b) doing this may reduce or avoid the need for public health controls on internal borders within the EU+ area.

    4. The ban will forbid “all non-essential travel from third countries to the EU+ area”.

    5. The main exception will be EU citizens, citizens of associated states and long-term/permanent residents, who will be permitted to enter the EU+ area for the purpose of returning home.

    6. Other exceptions will apply to people travelling for essential reasons - healthcare workers, "frontier workers" (people who live in one member state and work in another; cross-border commuters), transport personnel, diplomats, aid workers, persons in need of international protection, “passengers travelling for imperative family reasons”, etc.

    7. Those who do benefit from exceptions will still be subject to “coordinated and reinforced health checks”. So expect processes and delays on landing.

    8. If the UK elects to join the EU+ area, unquestionably Ireland will also.

    9. If the UK elects not to join, we face a dilemma. If we join, we have to apply travel restrictions on entry from the UK (including NI). That would be extremely difficult and hugely disruptive in practice, and of course in the present climate fraught with political difficulty. Varadkar has, I think, announced that we will not join if that would mean movement controls over the IRL/NI border.

    10. Some have suggested that NI could join the EU+ area, even if the rest of the UK does not. I don’t think this is likely. It would mean an entry ban on NI affecting travellers from GB. I can’t see the NI executive agreeing to do it and, even if they did, I don’t think they have the power; Westminster would need to agree also. The Commission communication does not mention the possibility.

    11. On the other hand, if we don’t join the EU+ area, we are locked out. As EU citizens we could enter it only for the purpose of returning home, and of course, for most of us, our home is not in the EU+ area, so that wouldn’t help us. We would be largely barred from entry to the EU+ area while the ban lasted.

    12. Is it possible that IRL will seek a derogation, allowing it to join the EU+ area on the basis that it will restrict entry from GB but not from NI? Justification for this would be that it is in practice impossible to close the IRL/NI border in any event, plus the number of people travelling from GB to IRL via NI is very small.


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    #7544
    listermint
    Registered Users Posts: 33,683 ✭✭✭✭listermint


    ancapailldorcha wrote: »
    The problem is that if they leave with no deal and go further down the road of bellicose ethnic nationalism then that could be a problem for certain EU states. There's also the issue of them undercutting the EU on regulations, workers' rights and environmental protections.

    The EU would undoubtedly survive such things as it can protect itself but this could adversely affect smaller, more exposed EU member states such as Ireland, Denmark and the Netherlands, ironically the three most Anglophile nations of the EU27.

    What would this even look like. For this to succeed they would need to have service access to EU markets .

    Without it all he crap about undercutting is nonsense. You can't undercut a market this large without access to it.


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    #7545
    Peregrinus
    Registered Users Posts: 26,102 ✭✭✭✭Peregrinus


    listermint wrote: »
    What would this even look like. For this to succeed they would need to have service access to EU markets .

    Without it all he crap about undercutting is nonsense. You can't undercut a market this large without access to it.
    I think the point is that the EU would protect itself by limiting/controlling UK access to the Single Market with tariffs, regulatory barriers, etc.

    But that would adversely affect EU member states who do significant trade with the UK (IRL, NL, DK) or through the UK (IRL) so it's not a cost-free solution. Ireland's interests lie very much in the UK having high access to the Single Market, and being closely aligned with the Single Market. Ironically, this is also very much in the UK's interests so, really, so in a sane world we'd be pushing at an open door.


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    #7546
    listermint
    Registered Users Posts: 33,683 ✭✭✭✭listermint


    Peregrinus wrote: »
    I think the point is that the EU would protect itself by limiting/controlling UK access to the Single Market with tariffs, regulatory barriers, etc.

    But that would adversely affect EU member states who do significant trade with the UK (IRL, NL, DK) or through the UK (IRL) so it's not a cost-free solution. Ireland's interests lie very much in the UK having high access to the Single Market, and being closely aligned with the Single Market. Ironically, this is also very much in the UK's interests so, really, so in a sane world we'd be pushing at an open door.

    But we knew this all along. Nothing has changed on that front it's the reason we've taken large action to remove UK reliance


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    #7547
    Peregrinus
    Registered Users Posts: 26,102 ✭✭✭✭Peregrinus


    listermint wrote: »
    But we knew this all along. Nothing has changed on that front it's the reason we've taken large action to remove UK reliance
    We've taken large action to diminish reliance on the landbridge. But the landbridge is still very significant to us, and if it is degraded we will suffer.

    A no-FTA or very low alignment Brexit will harm the UK quite a bit. It will also harm EU member states in varying degrees, but only one EU member state is projected to be harmed almost as much as the UK itself. Guess which one?


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    #7548
    listermint
    Registered Users Posts: 33,683 ✭✭✭✭listermint


    Peregrinus wrote: »
    We've taken large action to diminish reliance on the landbridge. But the landbridge is still very significant to us, and if it is degraded we will suffer.

    A no-FTA or very low alignment Brexit will harm the UK quite a bit. It will also harm EU member states in varying degrees, but only one EU member state is projected to be harmed almost as much as the UK itself. Guess which one?

    Agree one hundred percent, but I personally don't think we should bow down to the aggressive state sitting across the water. If we give major concessions now the bar has been lowered permanently.

    That's a no from me.


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    #7549
    Peregrinus
    Registered Users Posts: 26,102 ✭✭✭✭Peregrinus


    listermint wrote: »
    Agree one hundred percent, but I personally don't think we should bow down to the aggressive state sitting across the water. If we give major concessions now the bar has been lowered permanently.

    That's a no from me.
    Sorry, I'm a bit lost. Who's talking about giving concessions? What concessions?


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    #7550
    RobMc59
    Registered Users Posts: 4,831 ✭✭✭RobMc59


    Peregrinus wrote: »
    We've taken large action to diminish reliance on the landbridge. But the landbridge is still very significant to us, and if it is degraded we will suffer.

    A no-FTA or very low alignment Brexit will harm the UK quite a bit. It will also harm EU member states in varying degrees, but only one EU member state is projected to be harmed almost as much as the UK itself. Guess which one?

    The UK also relies heavily on Ireland.Irish food and products is highly regarded here and despite the tory BS the general population want to retain that assurance of quality rather than reliance on some vague,anonymous supply from timbuktu or wherever.


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    #7551
    Peregrinus
    Registered Users Posts: 26,102 ✭✭✭✭Peregrinus


    RobMc59 wrote: »
    The UK also relies heavily on Ireland.Irish food and products is highly regarded here and despite the tory BS the general population want to retain that assurance of quality rather than reliance on some vague,anonymous supply from timbuktu or wherever.
    Possibly. But the UK's brexit policy is not decided by what the general population want, but by the hard-brexit cabal that controls the Tory party.


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    #7552
    listermint
    Registered Users Posts: 33,683 ✭✭✭✭listermint


    Peregrinus wrote: »
    Sorry, I'm a bit lost. Who's talking about giving concessions? What concessions?

    The post you quoted he was talking about the EU working hard to achieve a Canada plus deal.


    That's concessions city.


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    #7553
    ancapailldorcha
    Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 37,346 CMod ✭✭✭✭ancapailldorcha


    listermint wrote: »
    The post you quoted he was talking about the EU working hard to achieve a Canada plus deal.


    That's concessions city.

    Not necessarily. There's no reason not to try and accommodate the UK up until the point where the integrity of the single market would be compromised and/or the four freedoms.

    Johnson doesn't have the "I need something to get through Parliament" card anymore so I think he's actually playing with a weaker hand.

    The ultimate question is whether or not the hard Brexiters will get the chance to do relatively significant, long lasting damage to the people of the UK or whether Johnson will shaft vast swathes of people to placate Redmond, Rees-Mogg, Baker & Co. I can't see it to be honest as it would be an invite to a Labour government in a few years and that's if this virus hasn't incited panic at that point.

    The EU can and should be flexible. Indeed, it always has been. The choice is down to the government. If it wants market access, that comes with rules. If it wants WTO terms, that comes with an economic hit and other consequences. The EU has always tried to negotiate within the remit of Theresa May's absurd and wholly artificial red lines.

    We sat again for an hour and a half discussing maps and figures and always getting back to that most damnable creation of the perverted ingenuity of man - the County of Tyrone.

    H. H. Asquith



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    #7554
    Peregrinus
    Registered Users Posts: 26,102 ✭✭✭✭Peregrinus


    listermint wrote: »
    The post you quoted he was talking about the EU working hard to achieve a Canada plus deal.


    That's concessions city.
    Oh, right. I take your point.

    But as far as the EU is concerned, the "plus" part of a Canada plus deal will include commitments by the UK to level playing field measures to prevent undercutting of standards. I don't have a problem with that and neither, I think, does Ireland. It's not as good a deal as we'd like, but certainly better than no FTA at all. And it does at least create an opportunity to get the UK to commit to measures to minimise adverse impacts on the landbridge.


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    #7555
    ancapailldorcha
    Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 37,346 CMod ✭✭✭✭ancapailldorcha


    Mod: There is a new Coronavirus forum available here:

    https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/forumdisplay.php?f=1865

    I have moved a few more posts to the general UK politics thread.

    We sat again for an hour and a half discussing maps and figures and always getting back to that most damnable creation of the perverted ingenuity of man - the County of Tyrone.

    H. H. Asquith



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    #7556
    ancapailldorcha
    Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 37,346 CMod ✭✭✭✭ancapailldorcha


    listermint wrote: »
    What would this even look like. For this to succeed they would need to have service access to EU markets .

    I don't know. I'm not expert on the area but the Tories have a strong free market/disaster capitalist wing. They will have no problem slashing regulations and workers' rights in the hope of luring over companies willing to take advantage.
    listermint wrote: »
    Without it all he crap about undercutting is nonsense. You can't undercut a market this large without access to it.

    Well, yes. I know and that you know that but Brexit is a disaster capitalist project aimed at enriching an infinitesimal group of elites.

    We sat again for an hour and a half discussing maps and figures and always getting back to that most damnable creation of the perverted ingenuity of man - the County of Tyrone.

    H. H. Asquith



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    #7557
    dresden8
    Registered Users Posts: 3,289 ✭✭✭dresden8


    ancapailldorcha wrote: »
    Insisting on successfully negotiating and ratifying a Canada+ style deal all in the next 8.5 months while legally ruling out an extension will.

    The EU has largely protected its short term interests with the WA. The NI border, remaining UK contributions and debts and citizens' rights have all been addressed to the EU's satisfaction.

    Unfortunately we know the Brits are lying about the border.

    Don't be surprised if we are faced with a choice of putting up a border or leaving the single market. The Brits would love to tear another country out of the EU.

    Remember, they don't just want Brexit, they want to destroy the EU.


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    #7558
    ancapailldorcha
    Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 37,346 CMod ✭✭✭✭ancapailldorcha


    dresden8 wrote: »
    Unfortunately we know the Brits are lying about the border.

    Don't be surprised if we are faced with a choice of putting up a border or leaving the single market. The Brits would love to tear another country out of the EU.

    Remember, they don't just want Brexit, they want to destroy the EU.

    The border has been settled. They could renege on the WA but then they'd have no hope of negotiating any FTA's. The UK is a middling global power. The wave that dodgy money men were hoping would break the EU never happened.

    There will be no such choice for Ireland. Siding with such a capricious and often malevolent nation over the EU is lunacy and most Irish politicians know it.

    We sat again for an hour and a half discussing maps and figures and always getting back to that most damnable creation of the perverted ingenuity of man - the County of Tyrone.

    H. H. Asquith



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    #7559
    beggars_bush
    Registered Users Posts: 4,364 ✭✭✭beggars_bush


    They'll be back within the EU within 24 months after this


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    #7560
    dresden8
    Registered Users Posts: 3,289 ✭✭✭dresden8


    ancapailldorcha wrote: »
    The border has been settled. They could renege on the WA but then they'd have no hope of negotiating any FTA's. The UK is a middling global power. The wave that dodgy money men were hoping would break the EU never happened.

    There will be no such choice for Ireland. Siding with such a capricious and often malevolent nation over the EU is lunacy and most Irish politicians know it.

    The government won't side with the Brits, the EU will demand the integrity of the single market. If the Brits act the bollix on the border as they already are things could 'go south' very quickly.

    Boris and Dom are capable of anything.


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    #7561
    Nody
    Moderators, Category Moderators, Arts Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Entertainment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 18,266 CMod ✭✭✭✭Nody


    beggars_bush wrote: »
    They'll be back within the EU within 24 months after this
    I'd say overly optimistic there; change it to years and you'd be at the lower end of my guesstimate (20 to 40 years). Keep in mind first they need to leave (with what ever form of deal it will be), then things needs to get so bad people actually start to challenge all the BS they been fed (and many will never do that), have enough elderly die off (sorry to be crude) and young once grow up to vote to swing the vote. And on top of that you need a full leadership change in both parties beyond the current seniors (because neither are competent enough to bring UK back into EU). In short; this is not a short term thing but will most likely measure in decades rather than months to happen.


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