Dublin Bay South By-Election

AndrewJRenko · 04-07-2021 11:56am

KevRossi wrote: »

Houses are sold at a fraction of what they are worth. It's just a huge transfer of public assets into private hands. Those houses can then be sold to the highest bidder, pulling as much money as possible out of hard pressed workers who are prepared to pay a mortgage, or who cannot get on some social housing scheme.

The difference in lack of housing still needs to be made up by future generations of taxpayers. It's an ongoing circle. It makes no economic sense. By all means ensure people are housed from cradle to the grave, but don't abuse it by flogging a valuable state asset for 20% of it's true value.

If FFG sold €10 billion worth of state assets to some vulture fund for €2 billion, the likes of SF/PBP/ etc. would be on the barricades and rightly so.

That's not true.

From https://www.gov.ie/en/service/12558-incremental-tenant-purchase-scheme-for-existing-local-authority-houses/

Your local authority will also place a charge on your house called an ‘incremental purchase charge’. This charge will be equal to the discount you get on the price of the house.

The charge will remain in place for 20, 25 or 30 years (depending on the discount given).

blackwhite · 04-07-2021 12:09pm

https://twitter.com/dub14blockers/status/1411313295307546625?s=21

Strange letter to be putting her name to, vowing to fight for the right to park on footpaths

AndrewJRenko · 04-07-2021 12:56pm

Is this what they call a false flag attack?

https://twitter.com/brian_daly/status/1411414829018062865

fullstop · 04-07-2021 1:04pm

Poor old Brigid Purcell not able to string a sentence together on RTÉ debate, completely out of her depth.

iwasliedto · 04-07-2021 1:05pm

AndrewJRenko wrote: »

Is this what they call a false flag attack?

https://twitter.com/brian_daly/status/1411414829018062865

Could be Geoghegan doing a nixer for his pals in the smoking business.

WishUWereHere · 04-07-2021 1:38pm

iwasliedto wrote: »

Could be Geoghegan doing a nixer for his pals in the smoking business.

I am from Newbridge, so am writing this an outsider:

Just watched TWIP.

I HAD hope for the PBP candidate Bridget Purcell. However, She hymned & hawed far too much - truly awful imho. Likewise Deirdre Conroe. Therefore both non-votable

For me being a lifelong Labour supporter, who swore ( after Gilmore &.burton) never to vote them again, seeing Bacik standing turns my stomach.

Of the 7 in the studio, I’d have to say Sarah Durkan came across as the most astute.

Another thing. Why would an independent candidate stand but not make themselves available for an interview?

fullstop · 04-07-2021 1:49pm

WishUWereHere wrote: »

I am from Newbridge, so am writing this an outsider:

Just watched TWIP.

I HAD hope for the PBP candidate Bridget Purcell. However, She hymned & hawed far too much - truly awful imho. Likewise Deirdre Conroe. Therefore both non-votable

For me being a lifelong Labour supporter, who swore ( after Gilmore &.burton) never to vote them again, seeing Bacik standing turns my stomach.

Of the 7 in the studio, I’d have to say Sarah Durkan came across as the most astute.

Another thing. Why would an independent candidate stand but not make themselves available for an interview?

Likes of Dolores Cahill only running to keep their name in public id say.

WishUWereHere · 04-07-2021 1:53pm

Also very disappointed that RTE didn’t pursue the Strand Road issues with the green Claire Byrne. For me she got away lightly there.

Bubbaclaus · 04-07-2021 2:08pm

WishUWereHere wrote: »

Another thing. Why would an independent candidate stand but not make themselves available for an interview?

Probably wanting nothing to do with "fake news mainstream media" or some rubbish to that effect.

Blut2 · 04-07-2021 2:11pm

Blut2 wrote: »

Odds movements with the bookies between May 15th and today[Jun 30th]:

Geoghegan has gone from 1.33 to 1.73
Bacik has gone from 8.0 to 2.2
Boylan from 7.0 to 13.0
Byrne from 17.0 to 13.0

Pretty huge shortening in Bacik's odds.

And thats probably not taking into account Byrne asking for transfers to Bacik an hour ago, either.

Update on these:

Bacik is now down to 1.67
Geoghegan further up to 2.25
Boylan up to 17.0
Byrne to 26.0

Bacik now the firm favourite. Quite a move from her 8.0 initial long odds. Presumably the parties internal data is showing things very favorably for her and the money is following that.

Brussels Sprout · 04-07-2021 2:33pm

Blut2 wrote: »

Bacik now the firm favourite. Quite a move from her 8.0 initial long odds. Presumably the parties internal data is showing things very favorably for her and the money is following that.

Was wondering if parties could still do their fake polling given the kerfuffle over it in the past few weeks.

KevRossi · 04-07-2021 4:12pm

AndrewJRenko wrote: »

That's not true.

From https://www.gov.ie/en/service/12558-incremental-tenant-purchase-scheme-for-existing-local-authority-houses/

It's still a huge transfer of wealth from public ownership to private ownership at a heavily discounted price. It doesn't work long term.

WishUWereHere wrote: »

Also very disappointed that RTE didn’t pursue the Strand Road issues with the green Claire Byrne. For me she got away lightly there.

Her stance on it is well known, it's not ambiguous.

WishUWereHere · 04-07-2021 4:49pm

KevRossi wrote: »

It's still a huge transfer of wealth from public ownership to private ownership at a heavily discounted price. It doesn't work long term.

Her stance on it is well known, it's not ambiguous.

As I said I am from outside the constituency boundaries. And I don’t know Her stance. TWIP was on national television so for me her stance should have been aired.

iwasliedto · 04-07-2021 4:52pm

It is interesting to look back on the Dublin Mid West by-election from 2019 and see some very similar trends in reporting to the DBS race. In these two reports which are pretty similar, they push the line that FG will be front runners with the Labour party and the Greens forecast to have a strong vote. Both reports got it spectacularly wrong with the Labour party brand being so toxic that even a well-known candidate like Tuffy had a dismal outing. neither report forecast the very strong performance of Ward. I could not find the betting odds for the election but it would be interesting to see if the odds followed the reports and put FG in as favourites.

https://www.rte.ie/news/politics/2019/1125/1094997-dublin-mid-west-by-election/
https://www.irishexaminer.com/lifestyle/arid-30965822.html
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Dublin_Mid-West_by-election

Of course, the two constituencies are very different, the questions are can FG shake off the inadequacies of their candidate?
Can Labour shake off the toxic brand and record low countrywide poll numbers with a recognised candidate? Can SF move into middle-class south Dublin and get some of that young vote?

Marcusm · 04-07-2021 5:53pm

I had never seen Claire Byrne interviewed or debate before. I thought she performed well, had assumed she was a place holder candidate. Can see that EvRyan would plan her as his replacement. For me, Geoghegan displayed his chinless wonder/empty suit appropriately (but I am biased). Deirdre Conroy should have prepared better and made no positive impact.

Surprised Ivana Bacik was so accepting of Portobello drinking, will lose some votes there. Sarah Durban performed well. Brigid Purcell will look back on this and the Tonight Show performance with regret in the future. No doubt she’s well meaning.

Edit: Forgot to mention Lynn Boylan but in fairness her performance was forgettable. I expected her to have a greater impact.

Jizique · 04-07-2021 6:02pm

Marcusm wrote: »

Edit: Forgot to mention Lynn Boylan but in fairness her performance was forgettable. I expected her to have a greater impact.

Lynn is another empty suit, I don’t think her heart is in it as she has her eye on DSW, and hard to know how keen Chris is on her getting a big vote.

Annasopra · 04-07-2021 7:40pm

iwasliedto wrote: »

It is interesting to look back on the Dublin Mid West by-election from 2019 and see some very similar trends in reporting to the DBS race. In these two reports which are pretty similar, they push the line that FG will be front runners with the Labour party and the Greens forecast to have a strong vote. Both reports got it spectacularly wrong with the Labour party brand being so toxic that even a well-known candidate like Tuffy had a dismal outing. neither report forecast the very strong performance of Ward. I could not find the betting odds for the election but it would be interesting to see if the odds followed the reports and put FG in as favourites.

https://www.rte.ie/news/politics/2019/1125/1094997-dublin-mid-west-by-election/
https://www.irishexaminer.com/lifestyle/arid-30965822.html
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Dublin_Mid-West_by-election

Of course, the two constituencies are very different, the questions are can FG shake off the inadequacies of their candidate?
Can Labour shake off the toxic brand and record low countrywide poll numbers with a recognised candidate? Can SF move into middle-class south Dublin and get some of that young vote?

I dont think thats a comparable situation because there wasnt a published poll in Dublin Mid West.

iwasliedto · 04-07-2021 7:51pm

Annasopra wrote: »

I dont think thats a comparable situation because there wasnt a published poll in Dublin Mid West.

I think there has been only one poll with 500 participants. It will be interesting to see how accurate it is. It just under a 5% margin of error .

L1011 · 04-07-2021 7:59pm

The bulk of the 2019 reportage on Labour doing better than expected is about Dublin Fingal (came third) and Wexford (came second), not Dublin Mid West and it wasn't based on pre-polling either.

Yurt2 · 04-07-2021 9:24pm

KevRossi wrote: »

It's still a huge transfer of wealth from public ownership to private ownership at a heavily discounted price. It doesn't work long term.

If they are paying back the discount over a 20/25/30 year term how can you characterise it as a *huge* transfer of wealth?

It's a roundabout mortgage assisted by the council essentially where otherwise they wouldn't be able to access one.

Those availing of it also can't sell it on before the term is up and take advantage of house price inflation. That's the real *wealth* element of owning a house, which you will instinctually understand. And those that are part of the scheme have limited access to it.

If they were handed over a property at a discount with no provisions to clawback the discount on the market price and were free to flip it any time without the state benefitting you may have had a stronger point. You're couching your point in hyperbolic language there I'd submit

AndrewJRenko · 04-07-2021 9:33pm

KevRossi wrote: »

It's still a huge transfer of wealth from public ownership to private ownership at a heavily discounted price. It doesn't work long term.

The theory is that it brings stability to those communities, as people have much more of a stake in their surroundings. They don't need support or subsidisation from the State in the future.

Obviously, if (as Thatcher did), you don't reinvest the funds in more social housing, then you end up with far less social housing in the long term.

AndrewJRenko · 04-07-2021 9:34pm

Marcusm wrote: »

I had never seen Claire Byrne interviewed or debate before. I thought she performed well, had assumed she was a place holder candidate. Can see that EvRyan would plan her as his replacement. For me, Geoghegan displayed his chinless wonder/empty suit appropriately (but I am biased). Deirdre Conroy should have prepared better and made no positive impact.

Surprised Ivana Bacik was so accepting of Portobello drinking, will lose some votes there.

Might also gain her a few votes too.

Conroy was even worse that I suspected.

Larbre34 · 04-07-2021 10:02pm

PBP are just like SF. Once you get below the brains trust of the top 5 or 6 operators in the party there is just a chasm of untalent.

Annasopra · 04-07-2021 10:06pm

AndrewJRenko wrote: »

Might also gain her a few votes too.

Conroy was even worse that I suspected.

Conroy doesnt come across well at all. There was an Irish Times article where she was moaning about other candidates and how underappreciated she is.

WishUWereHere · 04-07-2021 10:24pm

Annasopra wrote: »

Conroy doesnt come across well at all. There was an Irish Times article where she was moaning about other candidates and how underappreciated she is.

I recorded the WIP & just looked at it again. Purely my opinion, but aside from Durkan, none of the other studio candidates came across well. Indeed including the independents who declined an interview with RTE. I would say the standard of potential politicians is very poor. To watch the PBP candidate stutter the way she did made me think she would be better off as a cast member of a Monty Python sketch. Conroe looked like she was reading a script. Geoghegan was too cocky. As someone said above, Boylan came across as not really interested.

For me to read above that Bacik is leading must surely be a joke. And if she is the leading contender. Then people really have short memories.

KevRossi · 04-07-2021 11:09pm

Lynn Boylan is originally from Tallaght, she lives in Clondalkin. Sean Crowe is in Dublin SW, he is 64, he would be 67 at the next GE if the Dail runs its full term (yes, that's for another discussion). So 72 if he's in government for one term (on the basis SF form the next government).

Will he want to do that, or will he hand it over to Boylan before the next GE? Is she just on a profile raising mission, or do SF intend going for a 2nd seat in Dublin SW. So does she really want to win that seat, as unlikely as it is? I get the impression she's just profile raising, she knows she has no hope of getting the seat.

Marcusm · 04-07-2021 11:56pm

Philip Ryan in the Indo has given the debate to Geoghegan and Byrne as the best performers 6/10. He comments on Heoghegan calling out Justin Barrett’s anti-immigrant comments on VT. it’s fair to note that he was the only one to do so but I suspect anyone else would just have ignored it on the basis of who he is and what he stands for. Conroy was lower than Purcell which I think is probably about right. Durkan was poorly ranked and Boylan/Bacik tied.

Marcusm · 04-07-2021 11:57pm

KevRossi wrote: »

Lynn Boylan is originally from Tallaght, she lives in Clondalkin. Sean Crowe is in Dublin SW, he is 64, he would be 67 at the next GE if the Dail runs its full term (yes, that's for another discussion). So 72 if he's in government for one term (on the basis SF form the next government).

Will he want to do that, or will he hand it over to Boylan before the next GE? Is she just on a profile raising mission, or do SF intend going for a 2nd seat in Dublin SW. So does she really want to win that seat, as unlikely as it is? I get the impression she's just profile raising, she knows she has no hope of getting the seat.

I thought Lynn Boylan makes a point about having been born/raised in the Iveagh Buildings. Perhaps it was only very early childhood.

expectationlost · 05-07-2021 12:00am

Marcusm wrote: »

I thought Lynn Boylan makes a point about having been born/raised in the Iveagh Buildings. Perhaps it was only very early childhood.

0-2 years. https://twitter.com/sinnfeinireland/status/1115511865126391808

jimmycrackcorm · 05-07-2021 12:28am

Bizarre that Lynn Boylan is even contesting this election. Are SF trying to create a new healy-rae family dynasty?

Dublin Bay South By-Election

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