United Ireland Poll - please vote

How does that comparison work? There will be 6 new counties, two sizeable cities and hinterlands etc etc.

Knock yourself out comparing there still won't be a bill. Just the cost of running a new and different country.

Do you think the government proposing a Ui will be presenting a 'bill'?

Francie, now wouldn't be familiar with the majority of these but seeing as it's your claim you must be.

Which of these metrics no longer apply in your New Ireland and why?

An that investment will require cold hard cash that will more than likely come from direct taxation or cuts in services meaning it costs for everyone.

Fair enough , you are happy to pay but you being happy to pay for it doesn't change the fact that it will cost you too.

Also, obviously there won't be a bill. Instead we'll be told what are deficit will be and the cost will be tax increases and cuts to services that the new fiscal space will require to be considered a functioning economy.

If my taxes go up it's a cost. If capacity in hospitals needs to be reduced, it's a cost. If increment s are frozen it's a cost.

Good look selling upwards of 10% tax increases as an investment with the Hubner report 🤣

To be fair Francie all the parties have done feck all since the GFA.

Given that the ESRI have already presented data on the cost to the dail i have nothing to worry about.

Also we have the poll that shows people are considering the cost of this "investment".

All good from my perspective.

You 'have nothing to be worried about'???

Could have fooled a lot of the contributors to these threads I guess. 😉

On i forgot the classic it won't cost anything because the Republic won't subsume NI🤣

I intend to. Can't wait for Fitzgerald's paper to be published. Looking forward to you claiming that his predictions are an illusion too.

Are you looking forward to his paper? Given it's a great investment and all that 🤣

Am I going mad - the results of this poll were nothing remotely like they are now when I last looked in shortly before the site was 'improved'?

You said Doyle would shake up the debate on the subvention and that i should follow him on Twitter. I did a d the first post i found was him saying the subvention was irrelevant to the debate on unity 🤣.Never heard of the guy until you recommended him.

Is Doyle scaremongering by saying we would need a 5% tax increase to cover NI deficit?

Is Fitzgerald's claim of 3bn for welfare scaremongering?

Obviously Francie to back up a claim of scaremongering you'll need alternative figures to show some exaggeration or bias and that the figures are not a fair reflection of the data.

Ok Francie is the tone of this acceptable to you ?

Based on current data an investment in a UI may require a tax increase of upwards of 10% (or equivalent cuts to services or stealth taxes) to cover specifically the deficit of NI and harmonization of welfare rates. Predictions on the investment required via tax increases or a suitable alternative are not available yet for harmonization of public service pay.

Fair enough. As you know I'm familiar with the Hubner report and the 35bn over 8 years. Even though there is a major flaw with that figure for an easy life I'll run with that.

So apart from the Hubner what other benefits?

SSM and reproductive rights would improve for those in NI i think.

Peace Walls? Can't see that changing in even the medium term.

End of segregation in education in NI?

What benefits do you see? I don't intend challenging any point you make just want a simple and honest answer that isn't too vague to understand why you are willing to invest what is likely to be upwards of 10% of your take home pay on.

I know I said I wouldn't challenge you but I would like to ask a few further questions on your reply. Are you ok with that?

I would definitely see an overhaul of the PS as a benefit and it would influence my vote.

Do you think you can take on the unions and win a border poll? That's a significant cohort of voters.

By the way the benefits of having a whole island approach to delivering services is part of Doyle's paper at least. I think Fitzgerald's too but I'm not 100% on that .

I have not read the analysis yet on costings but do they take account of possible increase in eu funding , since I assume we will have lower gdp per Capita and potential extra funding for the unique nature of re unification? I imagine the Germans would be supportive of such a project politically. Also I have no idea of the arrangements for unionists who choose to remain in Britain, will they be offered transfers within their civil service? And the pensions, would a UI legally have to honor them? It's seems fairly messy, I don't know how we get accurate predictions but maybe they have ironed this all out, I haven't put in the time yet.

To be honest none of the parties have done anything on this and there are only a handful of papers on the costs and benefits.

With regards pension , that's covered by the subvention. Entirely up to the British on pensions with no legal obligations. Best case scenario is 2.5bn with the British agreeing to every demand, worst case is 8bn. Tax increases of 5 -8 % would be needed just for that part.

The subvention part is seen as irrelevant to the debate as it's contribution to the overall cost is small.

The big money is whether we increase pay to match the Republic and what numbers are retained. SF have already said they wouldn't support redundancies. I'd imagine they would need to look at the roles and see what the equivalent is paid in the Republic.

Welfare is estimated to cost 3bn. Probably easier to estimate. So that's a best case scenario of 10% tax increases already.

I'm sure the Germans will be supportive. They paid a unity tax up until a couple of years ago though so wouldn't be surprised if they suggested a ring fenced unity tax too.