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The UK response - Part II - read OP

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  • Moderators, Politics Moderators Posts: 38,422 Mod ✭✭✭✭Seth Brundle


    I think it is more that people are bemused at how the UK is opening up pretty much completely despite the daily numbers and the stark warnings by the scientists. The fact that the leader of the UK has had to self-isolate on their "Freedom Day" makes a mockery of this so called freedom from Covid.

    As for your "if this goes right..." - what if it goes wrong, as the science is warning?



  • Registered Users Posts: 327 ✭✭sekiro


    That's pretty impressive to be honest.

    So compared to the January tweet they are seeing 10k more cases but the number of deaths is more than twenty times less.

    Proof that vaccines work to blow away any remaining doubts.

    Opening up makes sense when you see the difference there.

    Otherwise I think the alternative would be to really never be able to open up.

    I do wonder what it would be like if they just waited another month or two.



  • Registered Users Posts: 327 ✭✭sekiro


    What is the science warning specifically?

    My understanding is that even with vaccinations there will always be new cases.

    The advantage being less deaths.

    So any kind of opening up will lead to a surge in cases even if the whole country is vaccinated.

    Vulnerable groups must surely be vaccinated now with almost 70% of adults double dosed at this stage. Plus they can stick to distancing and hand washing etc if they want. No need to go to busy shops etc if they don't want to.

    The science seems to be warning that even with vaccinations we'd still need to keep locking down.

    Are scientists saying to wait a month or two or what? They must surely agree with Boris that restrictions must be lifted. They just disagree on when?



  • Registered Users Posts: 25,348 ✭✭✭✭Timberrrrrrrr


    Why? Do you think people are going to be coughing/sneezing all over you?



  • Registered Users Posts: 18,921 ✭✭✭✭BonnieSituation


    Exaggerate much?

    I'm dreading it because only for it's an essential journey the last thing on god's green earth I'd be doing now is heading to England. Can one not "dread" anymore for fear of pro-Tory right-wingers deeming one's feelings and thoughts being invalid?

    I've not left this island since 28th December 2019, I didn't envisage I'd be travelling during these circumstances and the UK, despite death numbers, are not in a good place.

    I fully expect to isolate and test on my return to ensure the safety of those around me.



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  • Moderators, Politics Moderators Posts: 38,422 Mod ✭✭✭✭Seth Brundle


    The date for Freedom Day was chosen long before the scientific advisors could predict how the numbers would be on the date. It was chosen purely for political reasons, most likely after the Euros when it was hoped that England would have won and this would have further elevated spirits in England.

    As for what the scientists are advising, here is what a thousand of them are saying...


    In terms of why, the main reason is that by removing the various restrictions, the UK government are basing their strategy from here on purely on vaccinations and nothing else, which doesn't appear to have any credible scientific backing...




  • Registered Users Posts: 25,348 ✭✭✭✭Timberrrrrrrr


    What's to "dread" though? It's not as if people are suddenly taking no precautions whatsoever. I've just come back from my local town as I needed to get some supplies, today felt the same way alit did six months ago, people in shops still wearing masks and keeping thier distance.



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,281 ✭✭✭brickster69


    Been out and about this morning. Quite a few cars less in the street parked up, probably people going back to work instead of working from home

    Went to 2 supermarkets, 95% of people still wearing masks myself included. Was a bit strange seeing people without them like.

    Looks like a few more shops and gyms have opened up that were shut.

    Popped to the local read the paper and had a couple of pints. Really strange on a boiling hot day that most people were indoors and quite a few groups of older people sat together having a laugh which was nice, no masks in sight, no signing in and actually going to the bar and having your drink passed to you felt good, 17 months since that was allowed.

    Apart from that not much different to yesterday really.

    All roads lead to Rome.



  • Registered Users Posts: 6,647 ✭✭✭Pete_Cavan


    Comparing deaths now, at the start of a wave, to deaths in January, at the end of a wave, is very disingenuous. Deaths are certainly going to be lower this time round, thanks to vaccines, but that comparison is meaningless. Even with lower Covid deaths now, additional people in hospitals than there otherwise should be is going to have a knock-on effect on treatment received by others. On top of that, there are staff shortages due to the isolation requirements.


    https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1416986104327254019?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">July



  • Registered Users Posts: 6,724 ✭✭✭timmyntc


    In terms of why, the main reason is that by removing the various restrictions, the UK government are basing their strategy from here on purely on vaccinations and nothing else, which doesn't appear to have any credible scientific backing...

    Genuine question - what is the path to normality if not through vaccinations?



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  • Registered Users Posts: 327 ✭✭sekiro


    Two points.

    One. The idea that this would all be planned based on the assumed result of a series of football matches is far fetched. Almost conspiracy theory level.

    Two. I think they would need to base strategy on vaccinations because they've essentially encouraged almost the entire population to vaccinate with the promise that its a way out. Imagine if they turned round now and said that vaccination status is irrelevant so back into lockdown you go. Anything other that opening up after so many vaccines have been administered is an admission that vaccines are not a way out of this and also that the only way the country can get by is with strict government control.


    I said already that Freedom Day is more like Personal Responsibility Day because people aren't exactly being forced to go to pubs etc.

    The alternative seems to be to just forget about it and accept restrictions for another year or so. We'll be hitting autumn soon then into winter where you'll have cold and flu season added to the mix.

    I think a lot of people just don't want to give Boris or the Tories and kind of credit and I understand that but I feel like it would be easier to just give them a half hearted "good job" and then focus on all the other things they are getting wrong.

    My understanding is that loads of areas in the USA are opened up and the UK is now following on?



  • Registered Users Posts: 327 ✭✭sekiro


    Doesn't that essentially mean there is no real opportunity to get rid of restrictions?

    The vaccines are not 100% so any lifting of restrictions will result in loads of new cases and deaths. Especially with vaccination of children being a morally difficult area given their low level of risk.

    The numbers of UK adults who have been vaccinated is now so high that the choices seem to be to open up or to admit that the vaccine program will not help us achieve the goal of lifting restrictions after all.



  • Registered Users Posts: 7,861 ✭✭✭Christy42


    They called it Freedom day so it was certainly a heavy dose of propoganda in it's creation whether or not they were hoping for the football to help. I don't care about personal responsibility day. They didn't call it that. They called it Freedom day which is on them since they wanted a stupid name to make it sound like a better idea. IF you want personal responsiblity you open up slowly and don't make a big deal about all the freedoms on a single day with a dumb name for people to go and celebrate.

    Keeping some restrictions is not an admission that vaccines don't work especially when the UK is only slightly more than 50% vaccinated right now (probably less if you count the 2 weeks after the 2nd vaccine). About 68% for at least one vaccine. Great work in terms of what the world has done. Less than stellar if you are talking about fully back to normal or anything approaching herd immunity. Indeed despite the headstart the EU seems likely to catch up in this regard. (Going off of CNN's tracker).

    I think the US has a big enough antivax movement that they will simply accept deaths at this stage as the only way to move forward so I wouldn't use them as an example. They had the best vaccine rollout in terms of availability but are now falling behind due to the anti vax movement.

    In any case they still seem to have anti lockdown protestors clashing with police which just seems impressive with no lockdown.



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 24,043 Mod ✭✭✭✭robinph


    +1


    As if they were planning the strategy back in February when the dates were set out and thought "lets plan to open up before the Euros even start, then we'll delay things so that it actually opens up after the Euros finish instead because everyone will be expecting Engerland to win by then". The host cities were not even finalised until April, and there was even talk during the competition of Wembley games being moved due to restrictions on sponsor quarantine.


    The strategy was entirely based on vaccinations, and a lot of lucky guesses as to how effective they vaccines would be. There was some early indications in February that vaccines were working well and just based on that is what the reopening plan was created. The delta variant held things up by a month just whilst they waited to see how it would progress, but to be carrying out the plan based on what was set out in February and got things so close to that initial plan is very good indeed.


    If this wasn't to work then the whole world would have been screwed as it would have meant that vaccines didn't work, and no amount of blaming Johnson would have changed that as everyone would be screwed whatever they did.



  • Registered Users Posts: 18,921 ✭✭✭✭BonnieSituation


    Dread, just general dread, apprehension, worry. You know those human emotions one feels. Mad right?



  • Registered Users Posts: 25,348 ✭✭✭✭Timberrrrrrrr


    No, I don't, you seem to think it's some sort of a zombie apocalypse over here with infected people just waiting to pounce you the moment you stick your head out the door.



  • Registered Users Posts: 12,842 ✭✭✭✭average_runner


    Vaccine success? They ended up slower than us in the end. I got my second vaccine before any of my friends got their second vaccine in the Uk. They got their first about 6 weeks before us but I had my second two weeks before them!!



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,242 ✭✭✭AllForIt


    I don't see what's bemusing as in can't understand the logic of it. The logic being enough people have been vaccinated that waves don't matter like they once did. That was always the endgame because there is no prospect there won't be more waves and more variants. If we decide to react to waves then that goes with it perpetual temporary lock-downs which is a disaster for the hospitality industry etc. If lockdown had gone ahead a month ago then what would they have down about this current wave? Lockdown again after just lifting it!? There is always going to be someone who will say just wait a bit longer, and when deaths aren't the reason it will be long covid and then people who are highly vulnerable due to some debilitating disease they're suffering from. I noted the BBC and Sky doing interviews with those types of people over the weekend.

    As for your 'as for your "if this goes right'..what if goes wrong", I had in mind something unforeseen, like god forbid higher than before seen death rates amounts the young for example. I don't pretend to be an expert, but I do recognize there is always a risk in lifting restriction.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,338 ✭✭✭Bit cynical


    However they were much quicker off the ground with shots early on. The advantage of this is that a huge percentage of their adult population have at least one shot. This and the fact that it is the middle of the summer means that they can now rely a lot more on personal responsibility rather than rules and restrictions.



  • Moderators, Politics Moderators Posts: 38,422 Mod ✭✭✭✭Seth Brundle


    The path to normality would not involve an abrupt cessation of the rules that have helped prevent transmission of an airborne virus over the last 16 months to rely only on vaccinations which do not offer 100% immunity.

    The path to success would not involve closing all Indian flights when it became known of the Delta variant rather than keep them open so that one could host a trade mission.

    The path adopted by the UK has all the hallmarks of a "hoo-ha we're better than the EU" approach and involves politics rather than science.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 2,338 ✭✭✭Bit cynical


    I don't think so. I think it is important to remember that the easing of restrictions to day is just part of a long line of relaxations that have been happening over the last few months. Indoor dining, for example, has been happening for some time now and outdoor dining even longer.



  • Registered Users Posts: 327 ✭✭sekiro


    I can agree that they shouldn't have called it "Freedom Day" but to be fair at the start of this Varadkar was slipping Lord of the Rings and Terminator quotes into speeches, while people were terrified and dying, and we all thought it was a great laugh. So I think we can expect some showboating and just see it for what it is when the end is in sight.


    There is unlikely to be mass vaccination of kids because parents won't stand for it and vaccination of adults will slow down also as those who refuse and can't be forced will remain unvaccinated.

    The only choices left are opening up or somehow finding ways to coerce people into getting vaxxed.


    Getting an uneasy sense that people would take great delight in seeing the UK fail miserably here but what would that mean for the rest of us? If Freedom Day turns out to be a false promise then isn't it time for our own government to stop dangling the possibility of getting out of this in front of us and just admit that we aren't going to see "normal" ever again?

    Its almost August 2021 and we've been going at this since March 2020. Vulnerable people are vaccinated now so it's time to just commit to either letting it all go or admitting that we are going to be under restrictions indefinitely.



  • Registered Users Posts: 6,647 ✭✭✭Pete_Cavan


    That's nonsense, the choices are not open up or admit that vaccines will not achieve the goal of lifting restrictions. There are any number of scenarios between those two extremes. Full vaccination levels haven't even reached the generally accepted level of herd immunity. There is no logic behind removing all restrictions and pretty much everyone with any expertise in this field has stated that. Vaccines will help and are helping, would you randomly choose to stop cancer treatment based on non-scientific because it hadn't cured your cancer at a completely random point in time?



  • Registered Users Posts: 6,724 ✭✭✭timmyntc


    Normality is a cessation of those rules - by definition thats what our normal was.

    Vaccine rollout, even if not 100% effective, it seems like the only way to go. The alternative is restrictions indefinitely, because covid is not going away. Its endemic, even with mass vaccinations. The most we can do is minimize risk - we cannot eliminate it.



  • Registered Users Posts: 7,861 ✭✭✭Christy42


    I don't care what Varadkar did. He didn't try and copy a Futurama holiday. If the name is obvious propaganda I am obviously going to be skeptical. Why wouldn't kids get vaccinated? I remember getting vaccinations in school and there was never an issue. I had more as a baby as well and I believe that is fine for the vast majority of parents.

    61.9% Ireland vs 68.2% isn't a wild difference in first shots. 45.3% vs 53.0% isn't a massive difference for second shots either. Certainly they are ahead and deserve credit for that but lets not call a huge %



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,338 ✭✭✭Bit cynical


    I would say the government would like to tell us that there will never be full normality and we had better get used to restrictions of one sort or another indefinitely but the UK makes that difficult for us politically since they can be used as an example of what is possible.



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,281 ✭✭✭brickster69


    All roads lead to Rome.



  • Registered Users Posts: 327 ✭✭sekiro


    I would assume its going to be up to the parents whether or not the kids get the vaccine?

    My understanding is that childhood vaccinations tend to be for illnesses with a high probability of causing serious harm or death?

    Would covid-19 be deemed dangerous enough for kids to be required to vaccinate?

    Feels like there would need to be a lot more research done there to establish the actual risks.

    Could we, as a society, ever forgive ourselves of we vaccinated kids against a virus that wasn't a big threat to them only to later discover that there were unforseen long term effects?

    I know for myself it was easy enough to book an appointment and consent to the vaccine but we'd be vaccinating kids without consent against something that statistically isn't really a threat to them.



  • Registered Users Posts: 18,921 ✭✭✭✭BonnieSituation


    Oh look, more hyperbole and exaggeration in pursuit of a point. How unlike you.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 137 ✭✭CapriciousOne


    People won't be happy about this. Mandatory vaccination for nightclubs and large events from Sept. Tests not sufficient.





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