Dublin Bay South By-Election

L1011 · 15-07-2021 9:26pm

Well, I was wrong saying she wasn't the right candidate for Labour. Think that was before O'Connell was definitely out but it might not have been!

Blut2 · 15-07-2021 9:35pm

I have to hold my hands up and say I was also completely wrong with my initial doubts about Bacik's electability. She did very well to be fair to her.

FG's vote held up reasonably well so they can probably just blame the result on Geoghegan being a pretty bad candidate. O'Connell probably would have taken the seat for them.

FF on the other hand...their worst election result in their history I believe. It should really serve as a huge warning sign to them that they face electoral obliteration in the next election unless they manage to achieve some very substantial things on housing and health.

awec · 16-07-2021 2:00pm

SF must be disappointed as well, I think their vote share went down and they are the main opposition party?

Sam Russell · 17-07-2021 10:58am

https://boards.ie/discussion/comment/117619830#Comment_117619830

Particularly since they made a huge effort to get their vote out, as did FG. The FG vote help up, but not so much for the SF vote.

I saw no SF or FF presence in my area, but plenty of FG, Green and Labour.

Blut2 · 17-07-2021 3:01pm

https://boards.ie/discussion/comment/117623343#Comment_117623343

The SF vote actually held up better than the FG vote, according to the figures. Vote difference between the 2020 General election and the DBS by-election result:

LAB +22.4%

SF -0.3%

SD -1.4%

FG -1.5%

FF -9%

Grn -14.5%

We'd need more granular statistics to know the breakdown details for certain, but I'd imagine the historically very low working class by-election turnout, and Boylan's lack of local constituency connections/work, was cancelled out by an increased anti-government vote - which combined left them pretty much at a standstill.

PommieBast · 17-07-2021 3:56pm

https://boards.ie/discussion/comment/117624191#Comment_117624191

I've no doubt that the FG and SF vote both involved a significant amount of churn, but given the difficulty in knowing for sure I tend to reach for Occam's Razor.

jm08 · 17-07-2021 4:43pm

https://boards.ie/discussion/comment/117619830#Comment_117619830

I'm surprised that SF did as well as they did. Last Gen. Election it was the first time for SF to win a seat in this constituency and a lot of that has to do that Chris Andrews is of the political Andrews family dynasty of Fianna Fail and would have a fairly high and well respected profile in the Constituency.

zimmermania · 20-07-2021 9:20pm

BY-ELECTIONS can be difficult to predict,occasionally if one candidate appears to be head and shoulders above all others he/she gets a vote in multiples of what their party is getting in the polls.

Labour could not have expected to head the poll in any circumstances,but because Bacik was identified as far and away the best candidate she headed the poll.

Michael D did the same or the same reasons and Jan O'Sullivan also did the same in 1998 for Labour in a by-election in Limerick when against all odds she headed the poll and won the seat.

L1011 · 20-07-2021 9:39pm

The thing is that having a locally good candidate is the only way a party on say under 10% nationally can ever expect to get a seat at all. That got Labour 20 seats off 10.1% in 2007 - few if any of them could be seen as having been lifted in to place by a party had been on a fairly static vote share for a decade.

Whereas once a party is getting towards a polling figure that would be a five seat quota (16-17%) and beyond its much more likely that a candidate can just get lucky.

zimmermania · 22-07-2021 9:57am

https://boards.ie/discussion/comment/117639016#Comment_117639016

There is a bit more to her election than that,you felt she was the wrong candidate in the first place and now you attribute her success to luck!

It is obvious she was perceived as the best candidate by so many

voters despite the Labour party's poor position in the polls.

L1011 · 22-07-2021 10:10am

https://boards.ie/discussion/comment/117645413#Comment_117645413

You didn't understand my post if you think I said she got lucky.

zimmermania · 23-07-2021 11:50pm

Maybe you could explain what you your post meant.

Dublin Bay South By-Election

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