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Brexit discussion thread XIV (Please read OP before posting)

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Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 27,939 ✭✭✭✭looksee


    Maybe waiting to see what they say, rather than making gloomy predictions on what you think they are going to say. And is it really likely that the EU is going to make statements about a statement that has not yet been made?



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,410 ✭✭✭KildareP


    What do you want from the EU?

    You didn't want them to invoke Article 16 previously because that was kneejerk.

    Yet you want them to threaten all sorts of trade tariffs at the UK who, despite all the bluff and bluster, haven't yet actually done anything wrong.

    I can't help but feel no matter what the EU does, you're going to find fault regardless.

    The NIP/TCA outlines what measures are available to both sides in the event of a dispute, that's all either side needs to know. It shouldn't need exact countermeasures laid out as if it's going to somehow allow one or the other side to weigh up whether it wants to renege on the agreement or not. If the UK wants to break the agreement, they will. If they're going to reluctantly abide by it and then moan about it for time immemorial, they'll do that also. It's not up to the side abiding by the agreement to somehow coerce or convince the other side not to break it. If they do break it, then you consider your options and escalate accordingly.

    The simple reality is, this is the UK blustering yet again. They've done it on every single occasion up to now and this is no different. They'd love nothing more than the EU to start threatening an all out trade war (which you previously derided the EU for a kneejerk reaction over AztraZeneca) because it gives them the chance to point the finger and shout "SEE!! SEE!! WE TOLD YOU THEY WERE EVIL!" and the EU completely loses the moral high ground of being cool, calm and collected (which you also previously accused the EU of doing over AstraZeneca/A16 discussions).

    Let them have their tantrum. When push comes to shove, they'll quietly back down and move on to the next shouting match where we'll start around this well-worn track once again.



  • Registered Users Posts: 25,906 ✭✭✭✭Peregrinus


    You're criticising the EU for not having already reacted to a move which the UK has yet to make?

    You've got this the wrong way about, Kermit. The EU is sane. The Brexiters are bonkers. There is no advantage, and considerable disadavantate, to the EU in sanctioning the UK for things the UK hasn't done. Therefore, they don't do it. This is not a failing or a weakess. It's precisely because the EU behaves sanely and rationally, and not in the way that you think it should, that the EU has acheived so much in the Brexit process, and the Brexiters so little.



  • Registered Users Posts: 745 ✭✭✭ClosedAccountFuzzy


    It's being driven by reactionary and inflammatory politics in the UK and procedural interpretation of agreements, treaties and laws on the EU side.

    The EU works like that in general. You're not going to see an explosive political response, no matter what the political reaction is in the UK nor how much the tabloids imagine the politics to be in Europe.



  • Registered Users Posts: 7,861 ✭✭✭Christy42


    The UK voted for M&S to have to fill in those forms and they should fill them in for the sake of democracy really. They gave Boris a massive mandate to get Brexit done and he signed up to an agreement with the EU. M&S are rebelling against what Boris did with that mandate.


    I see Boris' new suggestion is "Trust us bro". After breaking any all international treaties with the EU that has been able to. Shockingly it is not expected to be accepted by the EU.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 15,442 ✭✭✭✭Leroy42


    Yeah, we have seen the movie before. Frost and the government will make speeches demanding change, that time is running out, that the EU need to decide if they care about NI or not. That, as a sovereign nation, the UK cannot be expected to be told what rules to follow, but the EU needs to accept that the UK will make sure that all the rules will be followed!

    It's a complete contradiction wrapped up in itself. Even that interview by the M&S boss, where he basically says that the rules are a bit complicated and hard so they should just let them go, or at least what he deems as unimportant.

    And that is very much the thinking of the government. That rules are really that important, that its ok to ignore them as really it not that much of a problem. Whilst at the same time saying that following the same rules is a complete non starter as it removes the very essence of the nation.

    So the UK announce yet another ultimatum. The EU will say it will consider it (unlike the UK, the EU appears to be willing to learn from its mistakes and having got burnt so badly by the mention of Art 16 earlier in the year will know that the considered, boring, slow approach is the better option).

    Martin was perfect in his comments yesterday following the call with Johnson. Of course they will consider it. That may take all of 5 seconds but by effectively not commenting they are taking all the air out of the it and the news agenda moves onto the next thing.



  • Registered Users Posts: 933 ✭✭✭jamule


    the Brits have not broken any trade treaties nor will they, you will hear the usual bluster and ultimatiums from Frost but they will continue to toe the line and pretend they have been bullied into it by the EU. The Tories need to be in continuous dispute with the EU, without they may have to actually make an effort to govern the country!



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,515 ✭✭✭Enzokk



    What was illuminating to you? Why is it illuminating? Is there anything mentioned in the article that is new and not used for other international trade agreements?


    I cannot see anything new in there other than people asking the EU to break its rules to suit the UK. This would mean the EU would fall foul of all other agreements it has signed with other countries/trade areas and something it will not do. Asking the EU to do that is pointless and just useless posturing.



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,857 ✭✭✭dogbert27


    Seriously you must be a terrible poker player! 😂


    You want the EU to show their hand before the UK has even played theirs?


    We all know the UK is bluffing and doing a really bad job of it! The EU just has to sit tight and say nothing at all.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,342 ✭✭✭BluePlanet


    I actually agree.

    Weak statements from a joke of a Taoiseach tells me Ireland is preparing the ground to cave.

    I had posted many months ago that we should be standing up border infastructure to defend the SM.

    A border will drive a UI, that's the only long term solution.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 4,831 ✭✭✭RobMc59


    The problem is,apart from the majority of posters on the brexit thread who are all of the same persuasion and a few misguided,misty eyed old Americans,no one else actually involved in brexit (ie:British people)thinks like that.

    I don't pretend to have the solution but do believe the situation regarding NI is unique in that although the protocol is a good idea,the over zealous application of it and the fact it sticks in the craw of even moderate British people is a problem.



  • Registered Users Posts: 15,442 ✭✭✭✭Leroy42


    So despite many posters on here telling you the reasons for the issues, and the probable solutions, you think it is all just naysayers and a few misguided misty eyed old Americans!

    So Rob, what is your solution? It cannot involve the EU having to give up anything btw, they already have a deal and it would be ridiculos (misty eyed some would say) that the UK thinks that it claim for freedom and sovereignty overrides that of the EU.

    That the very people that convinced you that they had secured a wonderful deal, the very side that convinced you that Brexit simply had to involve a complete break are now the very side that have convinved you that the deal is actually completely unworkable and was never a runner but is only terrible because they never thought that the EU would actually stick to the deal is very worrying.

    You have said a number of times that you don't agree with Brexit, yet you continually call for the EU to drop it own rules to help Brexit be less crap than it undoubhtedly is.

    As the UK were so fond as telling everyone, this is a democratic decision, as was the vote on the deal itself, and that the UK government is now looking to renege on that mandate should be a kick in the teeth for every brexiteer and democrat in the UK



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,410 ✭✭✭KildareP


    I think we've been told Ireland will cave about as many times as the UK have given "final ultimatums" at this stage.

    Martin has nothing to "consider" since any such consideration is given at EU level. He is simply being polite, in much the same way as you might "bear in mind" the unsolicited advice the random chap at the bar or bus stop is giving you.

    It makes absolutely zero sense for us to cave.

    It makes absolutely zero sense for "the EU" to force us to cave (ignoring the fact we are the EU).


    If we cave of our own accord, we will be ridden roughshot over by the UK. They couldn't give two hoots about us, despite what they might like to let on. It will also likely make a lot of other EU nations ask what the hell they bothered sacrificing their own economies for in the name of solidarity to Ireland when we just give in anyway?

    If "the EU" forces us to cave, then that in and of itself will (ironically) start the downfall of the EU as we know it, something the Brexiters have "predicted" since the first days of Brexit becoming a possibility. Any notion of EU solidarity would be instantly gone. The Brexiters have their star prize handed to them on a plate.



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,515 ✭✭✭Enzokk


    We cannot decide the EU response on whether the UK public likes it or not. You voted for Brexit, you deal with the politicians that led you there and is leading the response. They negotiated the deal and there was ample opportunity for extensions to ensure this was done right. But "Get Brexit Done" won it and now you deal with it.



  • Registered Users Posts: 745 ✭✭✭ClosedAccountFuzzy


    The only proposed solution by some is that everything must change, yet nothing must change and if that isn't delivered, well then we'll scream.

    It's exceptionalism, with a side dish of exceptionalism and a notion that everyone owes you a free lunch.



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,754 ✭✭✭fly_agaric


    Agree that Ireland needs to be ready to face unpalatable options (if this process of trying to get the UK to implement what they agreed to runs out of road). Kermit.de.frog lays blame on the EU (as is his wont) but I think Micheál Martin is the one who'd be most likely of all the EU leaders to argue hard for doing nothing at all and letting any British actions slide at EU level. He's not made for facing this kind of challenge (am unsure if any of our politicians in or out of government are up to it?)

    I think the EU itself and also the other leaders will be more concerned with the future of the single market and implications of just allowing a party the EU makes trade agreements with to suffer no consequences when they ignore certain parts of the agreement(s) they do not like while taking full advantage of the parts they do like.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,410 ✭✭✭KildareP


    But Rob that makes no sense.

    An agreement is an agreement is an agreement.

    If you willingly and voluntarily agree to something then it's not "overzealous" for the other party to actually expect the other to abide by it, that's basic, fundamental, contract law.

    If you sign something and voluntarily opted not to read it, then it's still not "overzealous" when the other party expects you to abide by it. That's gross incompetence on your part if you later discover the agreement isn't actually all you thought it out be.


    Regrettably, sign without reading is exactly what the UK did. They negotiated it, whisked it through parliament without giving them any opportunity to scrutinise it, then hurriedly signed it so Johnson could get his Brexit Day. It is only now that the EU are calling on them asking for progress updates on the various aspects of said agreement that the government are suddenly having to feign surprise and anger at what they've actually contracted themselves to do. Again, that's not overzealous acting by the EU, it's a basic, fundamental expectation of contract law.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,342 ✭✭✭BluePlanet


    I don't lay much of any blame on the EU.

    Rather blame lies with Britain as they are dishonest brokers.

    I think Micheál Martin's instincts are to look for the fudge. For example move all border checks 'away from the border'.

    I don't know why this new boards.ie template only does double spacing?



  • Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 24,961 Mod ✭✭✭✭Podge_irl


    If the UK government is deadset on reneging on their agreement and ultimately forcing a border in Ireland there is literally nothing that Ireland or the EU can do to stop them. But they won't enjoy the consequences of their actions.



  • Registered Users Posts: 13,438 ✭✭✭✭briany


    Wherever you put checks, one side or the other will be unhappy. There is no squaring of this circle.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 4,831 ✭✭✭RobMc59



    Using your hypothesis,the Irish fishermen protesting and complaining about the fishing quotas which have been agreed by brussels are wrong to do so and should just get on with it-is that correct?



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,831 ✭✭✭RobMc59


    I agree and would say I believe the EU is worried that apart from out of touch hardliners within the EU any hard land border enforced by the EU would be a spectacular own goal on the world stage.



  • Registered Users Posts: 17,829 ✭✭✭✭Strazdas


    The interesting thing is that many people in Britain know that Frost, Johnson and Lewis haven't a leg to stand on. I've seen numerous people push back against them and admit their position on the Protocol is ludicrous, given that they won an election with it.

    So, who is all this stuff aimed at? The writers for the Daily Telegraph are clearly just a bunch of cranks and charlatans....is it aimed purely at Tory voters?



  • Moderators, Politics Moderators Posts: 38,405 Mod ✭✭✭✭Seth Brundle


    The Irish fishermen are correct to complain. However, whilst it is doubtful, there may be a change in EU fishing quotas. More likely though, is a financial package put to the fishermen.

    However, the fishermen complaining is not the same as the UK government signing an international trade agreement and then complaining that they don't like it and want it changed.



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,797 ✭✭✭An Ciarraioch


    As predicted, the NIP document was basically a load of hot air, that ultimately didn't make any concrete proposals to amend the current agreement, basically suggesting that GB companies would themselves declare whether goods are destined for NI or the Republic:

    https://t.co/rmY58OQzZk?amp=1



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,342 ✭✭✭BluePlanet


    No that is not the way the 'world stage' would see it.

    Britain owns Brexit, any fallout is ultimately their responsibility.



  • Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 24,961 Mod ✭✭✭✭Podge_irl


    I'm willing to be corrected, but any political soundings from abroad (US etc) have very squarely blamed the UK for any such potential outcome.



  • Registered Users Posts: 18,921 ✭✭✭✭BonnieSituation


    What do you specifically mean by "over-zealous"?

    You should clarify this please.


    What specific aspects of the NIP "stick in the craw of moderate British people"?



  • Registered Users Posts: 18,921 ✭✭✭✭BonnieSituation


    I think when we had Leo and Simon at the helm, they were more than capable.

    Mícheál has a decent reputation in the UK press which shows how useless he is.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,410 ✭✭✭KildareP


    There is no comparison between Irish fisherman protesting over quotas and the UK government protesting over a Brexit deal they were directly involved in formulating and willingly signed up to.



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