Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

That's so mad you posted this as I had the exact same thought last week, that longer term when Africa becomes uninhabitable and Southern Europe unbearable in summer, they'll be flocking up north, possibly skipping even Central European countries who may also be prone to extreme temperatures and ending up at us. But as you say, they could also come from the likes of the US or Australia. The so called "locked out" generation of the present might find that when they eventually get their mortgage, when the time comes to sell in a few decades, they will achieve a great appreciation in the value of their home like the older generations now who have done so well.

I've been thinking something similar for a while. I remember 10 to 15 years ago there was a massive heatwave in France, and a whole load of French people came to Ireland on their holidays as the climate was much more bearable.

I can very easily see people relocating to more moderate climates in the coming years.

Its not quite a simple as that. Investors are also showing much less interest in the US.

I am wondering what portion of properties in Ireland are investor properties. Just over the last month or so I know two people with investment properties who are looking to sell up( small time landlords who own an additional property).

I wonder if we could see a lot of institutional investors jump ship on Ireland at some point. At some point government may be forced to make things much more difficult for them, and the higher prices go the more pressure there is.

There is a lot of talk about new supply coming online but if you look at the planning permission that has been granted for Houses (I have excluded apartments) then you can see that these are still at historical lows which would suggest that we won't see much of an increase in houses in the coming years.

It's a good point, backed by data.

I agree, we won't see major increase of supply of houses in next 2 years. But there could be different case with apartments. If there is good conditions for developers, there could be a fairly good increase of supplies of apartments (although maybe not for open sale).

Actually, the Gulf stream probably started slowing at least 150 years ago and has slowed a further 15% since the 1950's. The Earth's temperature usually rises very rapidly just prior to the onset of an ice age and that's what I think is happening now. Of course all the previous ice ages were caused by anthropogenic CO2, so keep buying those EV's and paying those carbon taxes.

Of course this all good news for house prices in Cork and coastal house prices as sea levels will fall considerably and the Maldives will be saved.

Why would you wait for 9 years?

According to that graph, prices are going to continue to rise for the next 6/7 years, and even when they crash, will still be more expensive than they are right now.

That's interesting. Just wondering if you're at all familiar with the BCMS commencement data and how you might reconcile the two? gov.ie - Construction Activity Statistics (www.gov.ie)

It shows that there was nearly 5k residential units started each MONTH in April and May. Both April and May are nearly double the next highest month in the previous 10 years. Obviously there's an element of catch up going on. But even with essentially a shutdown in February and March, 2021 YTD commencements are 20% above 2019 at the same time which was the previous post crash peak? Will be interesting to see if June is another massive month or will it very quickly fall back to normal levels of activity.

Was talking to my brother in California and he was telling me the Irish there are starting to express an interest in relocating back to Ireland because of the recent heatwaves there.

House-building bounces back with completions at pre-Covid levels

I see the Help to buy being extended but don't see it applying to 2nd hand homes as it will not help increase supply.

Help to Buy is a misnomer.

It should really be called Help increase developers profits scheme, as any increase in purchasing power just got added to the price.

I understand the motivation behind it was to encourage developers to build but I just wish they had of been more honest about it.

Instead of giving money to ftb's to give to the developer why not just use funds to provide direct incentives to developers.

Can't see it ever applying to second hand homes, and if it does expect to see a jump in prices that will eat most of it anyway.

In their base case scenario it look that they expect stable increase 3.3-3.6% a year over next 4 years. But looking at the current situation, probably we are on Upside scenario already.