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Covid 19 Part XXXV-956,720 ROI (5,952 deaths) 452,946 NI (3,002 deaths) (08/01) Read OP

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    #9962
    corkonion
    Registered Users Posts: 523 ✭✭✭corkonion


    Our daily cases seem to be stagnating after a brief surge, is it realistic to hope that “this is it”? … with huge numbers vaccinated, are we on the home straight?



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    #9963
    Goldengirl
    Registered Users Posts: 13,068 ✭✭✭✭Goldengirl


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117670513#Comment_117670513

    No.

    Cases will rise over the next month until most are fully vaccinated , especially as opening up .

    Unfortunately the higher numbers will inevitably see a few more with serious disease and in ICU following on from that but in small numbers .

    I am hopeful that that will be the worst of it though .



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    #9964
    brickster69
    Registered Users Posts: 5,559 ✭✭✭brickster69


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117670513#Comment_117670513

    Unfortunately, " at the post " is more realistic than in the home straight.

    “The earth is littered with the ruins of empires that believed they were eternal.”

    - Camille Paglia



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    #9965
    ShooterSF
    Registered Users Posts: 8,824 ✭✭✭ShooterSF


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117669934#Comment_117669934

    I hope if you say you won't be showing a pass to enter a pub that means you won't be trying to enter a pub rather than the alternative.

    I know a few publicans who are already having to make posts on social media to respond to attacks from people who seem intent to blame the industry rather than the government for this situation.



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    #9966
    Mike3549
    Registered Users Posts: 983 ✭✭✭Mike3549


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117670513#Comment_117670513

    I believe so. Pretty sure all adults who want to be vaccinated will be fully waxxed by the end of summer. They do 18-20 days between pfizer jabs now



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    #9967
    airy fairy
    Registered Users Posts: 1,142 ✭✭✭airy fairy


    Is it 18 days + for both mRNA vaccines? Or just Pfizer?



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    #9968
    Messi19
    Registered Users Posts: 742 ✭✭✭Messi19


    Don't forget that back at the end of May, NPHET modelling had 7000 cases a day for July, if people only increased their contacts. That's without outdoor dining, nevermind indoor. They've been so far wide of the mark it's absurd



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    #9969
    ShadowTech
    Registered Users Posts: 187 ✭✭ShadowTech


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117670569#Comment_117670569

    Are you sure about the shorter dosing interval? When I got my first jab they told me it’d be 28 days. I didn’t see anything in the news about a change but I could’ve missed it.



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    #9970
    accensi0n
    Registered Users Posts: 2,766 ✭✭✭accensi0n


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117670702#Comment_117670702

    Check out the vaccine thread. Many posts where people are getting their 2nd dose after just 19 days or so. I received the text today for my 2nd dose of Pfizer, it'll be just 18 days after my first.



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    #9971
    ShadowTech
    Registered Users Posts: 187 ✭✭ShadowTech


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117670831#Comment_117670831

    Cheers! I missed those posts until now. It’s great to have some good news and I’ll have to start keeping an eye on the vaccine portal again!



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    #9972
    igCorcaigh
    Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 11,372 Mod ✭✭✭✭igCorcaigh


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117670696#Comment_117670696

    NPHET have always made very clear that models are not forecasts.

    Just like weather models; they need to be constantly fed with input from the real world, and interpreted by those who are aware of the model's limitations.

    But without being able to use mathematical models of future potential outcomes, you may as well rely on guesswork and coin flipping. So of course they have to present what their models are saying.



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    #9973
    Goldengirl
    Registered Users Posts: 13,068 ✭✭✭✭Goldengirl


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117670569#Comment_117670569


    Post edited by Goldengirl on


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    #9974
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117669799#Comment_117669799

    Indoor hospitality was pushed out for three weeks, where are you going with one week.

    Indoor dining has been available in theNorth since May and no massive increase in numbers.

    Theatres and concert halls are now opening in the North, we are so far behind, did we ever think we would envy those living North of the Border, the political and public health leadership there has been so much better than in the Republic.

    So forty per cent of nursing staff don’t take the flu vaccine, this is when we had trolleys full of elderly people in the winter, when we had no beds available and hence never ending waiting lists for surgery.

    What is all this about, why would health care staff not accept a flu vaccine.



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    #9975
    KrustyUCC
    Registered Users Posts: 6,037 ✭✭✭KrustyUCC


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117670886#Comment_117670886

    Very little comfort when the models are being used to influence and has a direct baring government decisions

    The modelling definitely scared the government especially the pessimistic scenarios NPHET presented

    "On the other hand the pessimistic scenario is totally different, over 2,000 deaths occurring over a three month period. A wave as severe as any that we’ve experienced to date, with hospitals coming under enormous pressure and ICU is in particular. So with that in mind, bearing in mind that the pessimistic scenario is a potential outcome, we decided that we’re going to be cautious and we’re going to err on the side of caution.

    In terms of which scenario was more likely, the Taoiseach said that NPHET advised that the situation could “land somewhere between” the first central scenario and the second central scenario. 

    Marin said that “what is clear” is that the reopening of indoor hospitality as had been planned made the more pessimistic scenarios more likely. 

    “What is clear from NPHET’s advice is that if we were to proceed as we had planned in our entirety from 5 July onwards, we would significantly increase the risk of the more negative scenarios and the pessimistic scenarios that they have outlined, which really would have a very significant impact on people, on our health service and on mortality, and that was the context in which government took that advice,” the Taoiseach said. 

    https://www.thejournal.ie/delta-wave-nphet-letter-deaths-5480452-Jun2021/



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    #9976
    Klonker
    Registered Users Posts: 1,667 ✭✭✭Klonker


    Anyone argueing that a patient in hospital with covid is the same as a patient in hospital from covid is being disingenuous. Its giving the impression that a lot more people are getting ill enough from covid that they need hospitalisation.

    If for example we're told 30% of our hospital cases are fully vaccinated, would it not be important to know if these people were there because they got so ill from covid they needed hospitalisation or if they all just happened to test positive and not even know it?



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    #9977
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117671029#Comment_117671029

    Isn't it possible to have sympathy for the plight of those who work in hospitality, without such a mean spirited post towards a person who works on the front line of the pandemic?



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    #9978
    Messi19
    Registered Users Posts: 742 ✭✭✭Messi19


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117670886#Comment_117670886

    When the cabinet are basing their decisions that have a marked effect on the whole population of this country on the basis of NPHET modelling then that modelling needs to as tight as it can be and needs constant updating.

    Their numbers have been miles off, not independently verified which is absolutely bonkers and they've been back seat driving this country off of a cliff



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    #9979
    Goldengirl
    Registered Users Posts: 13,068 ✭✭✭✭Goldengirl


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117671029#Comment_117671029

    I am not getting into a to and fro with you when your understanding of what people like me went through during the last 17 or 18 months is so limited that you talk about overtime and flu vaccines.

    There is a real whiff of a re Reg about you but will leave that to the very busy mods to sort out... G&L



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    #9980
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117671092#Comment_117671092

    No, not when someone who hasn’t lost a cent in income can so casually dismiss almost 200,000 people employed in hospitality.

    Indoor hospitality has been opened elsewhere in Europe for months.

    We have very high cases and it’s mostly very young people, they are getting covid in spite of their outlets being closed.

    So why this obsession with indoor hospitality, we had indoor hospitality all last summer and our hospitals were empty.

    The young people are getting COVID simply by hanging out together, if you don’t provide outlets they will have house parties. Treat them like lepers and some will have covid parties so they can get digital certs.

    We could have used antigen tests like other European countries to return freedom to people like me who like to sit in a cafe and read the paper. I am double vaccinated since May so I have no issue with a young unvaccinated person enjoying a cup of tea too, all the better if this person has taken an antigen test.

    We could and should have fallen in line with the rest of Europe and opened indoor dining in June with or without antigen tests but the people making these decisions are almost exclusively public servants on permanent pensionable salaries so no skin off their own noses if we kept everything closed till next year.

    We couldnt contain the young people any longer so lets look like we are doing something, thats the reality of where we are at now, hence you can have weddings of a hundred people, you can baptise your child but no getting together afterwards, no communions or confirmations but you can bring your unvaccinated child to the pub, you cant go indoors with said Child for a happy meal but you can watch movies back to back in the cinema.

    How can anyone with a brain cell not see this nonsense for what it is.



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    #9981
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117671151#Comment_117671151

    Its not just about you.

    Plenty of people lost their livelihoods and spent thousands of borrowed money getting their premises ready to open on July 5th.

    They had done everything they could to re open their businesses safely but no, we cant use antigen tests like everyone else because Irish people might fake them with butter.

    The Government couldnt even treat these frontline workers with respect and yes, they are frontline workers providing a social outlet for isolated peole struggling with mental health difficulties, it was lal we will get back to you whenever we feel like it, sure whats another few weeks when we are "saving lives".

    There will be no impact from the Delta variant, its a head cold for young people and its mostly young unvaccinated people who are being exposed to it.

    The Health service is absolutely dire and its dawning on people now just how badly managed it is when we are frozen in paralysis in case a few people need treatment for covid. Its not as though we dont have years of dealing with an overloaded ststem with hundreds of people lying on trollies, not as if we havent had years of people staying in beds because there in no one to discharge them at the weekend.

    And yes whats wrong with talking about overtime and vaccinations offering a chance for healthcare staff, those working and retired to make a lot of money.

    All in it together, right.



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    #9982
    hmmm
    Registered Users Posts: 11,205 ✭✭✭✭hmmm


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117671273#Comment_117671273

    Really going for it there, down with the government, antigen tests, it's only a cold, hard-pressed businesses and even a bit of abuse for the HSE and their staff. My rabble-rousing bingo card is full.

    Anyone with half a functioning braincell could see that July 5th was not going to be achievable in the face of a brand-new variant which was spreading rapidly in the UK, and caution was always going to win out. Businesses would not have been well-served either by reopening on that date as the threat of yet another lockdown would have been very real. We now have a sustainable model of indoor dining for vaccinated people only, and that should see us safely through to Spring and the final lifting of all restrictions.



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    #9983
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    Why would we have had another lockdown, all the vulnerable had been vaccinated, the nursing homes where over half of the deaths occured had been locked down for months.

    The hospitals have got on top of infection control which meant hundrds of people were no longer being infected in our hospitals.

    When we actually look back on this we will probably find the vast majority of people who died were either way past life expectancy, caught covid in hospital or in a nursing home, were hugely obese with medical issues relating to obesity.

    The rest of us were never at major risk from covid and we still arent, we are taking vaccines even though we never took flu vaccines and were never required to, hundreds and thousands of us could catch covid and the effects on us would be less than that of the flu.

    July 5th was achievable,it was scuppered because of those modelling figures presented to cabinet. Nothing has really changed in the three weeks since except more people who arent at serious risk from covid getting vaccinated.

    Now we are talking about vaccinating teenagers and children when other people in poorer countries who are genuinely at risk of dying from covid cant get vaccines, what is the point of this if the main reason we want young children vaccinated is because of variants, variants are going to arise in countries with low vaccination rates and we can sit here congratulating ourselves on our wonder ful vaccination roll out,eg from cradle to grave but this wont stop varaints from getting here.



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    #9984
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117671292#Comment_117671292

    Ahem, what about the return to school and hundreds of people in one building.

    What about return to University and hundreds of thousands of young people on campus and living in College accomodation.

    Ah, no, it will be grand as long as Granny doesnt bring the chiselers to Mc Donalds.



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    #9985
    Widdensushi
    Registered Users Posts: 5,238 ✭✭✭Widdensushi


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117670886#Comment_117670886

    For transparency they need to show what the models are based on,the workings etc, at this stage they need to bring the public in or admit it's a big bluff,their credibility is shot.



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    #9986
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    Their credibilty is completely shot and the Government is proceeding with antigen testing in spite of their opposition.

    Leo Vradkar asking for details on hospital numbers publically is an indication of loss of confidence on the part of Government too.

    Its beyond incredible that at this stage of the pandemic a Government and its army of well paid civil servants do not have full details of covid hospital numbers. Why didnt Leo Vradkar simply request these details to be on his desk or on Stephen Donnollys desk.



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    #9987
    Widdensushi
    Registered Users Posts: 5,238 ✭✭✭Widdensushi


    I didn't vote fg, not a Leo fan but I do think ff have not taken any balls /bravery /responsibility, civil servants are in charge while they are working out what their pensions are.



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    #9988
    fun loving criminal
    Registered Users Posts: 1,482 ✭✭✭fun loving criminal


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117668117#Comment_117668117

    I hope I won't be seen as one of these if I want to eat outside. No way would I be going indoors as a fully vaccinated person.



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    #9989
    ShooterSF
    Registered Users Posts: 8,824 ✭✭✭ShooterSF


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117671385#Comment_117671385

    Not a fan of either myself and have been vocal that I think NPHET's recs for the hospitality industry were drafted by someone who has clearly never worked in it. But, I don't think the time to have balls is during a pandemic and by ignoring advice from your national emergency team. They actually did ignore them partially as far as I'm aware in letting children in unvaccinated and I think that was a worse decision than following the original recommendation.

    But generally I feel you have to have a serious reason during a time like this. When everyone is vaccinated and covid is fully controlled (not necessarily eliminated) then they should be able to look into how successful NPHET's approach was and if they find fault then replace those people.



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    #9990
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117671439#Comment_117671439

    There would be little indoor dining in Spain and Portugal but yet even with their outdoor life covid numbers are rocketing.

    we have had hotels open for a couple of months now and the better located ones would be pretty full, are there big covid outbreaks linked to these hotels, there would be plenty of young unvaccinated adults and children eating and drinking there.

    Trying to stop Delta spreading among the young is like trying to hold back the sea, stopping business people making a living while teenagers party on elsewhere is futile.

    Other European countries have grasped this, watch our young educated leave now, we will miss them and as a parent watching my young adult and her entire group of friends preparing to leave, all I can think is I dont blame them.



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    #9991
    airy fairy
    Registered Users Posts: 1,142 ✭✭✭airy fairy


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117671810#Comment_117671810

    That's the problem with a lot of today's youth. Not willing to stick things out. Always want to have something better, and have it now.

    Not prepared to offer it up, suck it up, put a little hard graft in.

    The sense of entitlement is bigger now than it ever was.



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