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Covid 19 Part XXXV-956,720 ROI (5,952 deaths) 452,946 NI (3,002 deaths) (08/01) Read OP

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Comments

  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    That's not correct. There is no evidence that vaccines select for escape mutants. In fact it suggests that they reduce the diversity of mutations, potentially offsetting selective pressure and limiting evolution. As I've said many times vaccines may need an update eventually due to antigenic drift but that's a gradual process over time. It is extremely unlikely it will ever get to the point it will evade the vaccine entirely.

    Oh and FYI most vaccines we use are non-sterilizing. That's never been a problem. The only one used widely is for HPV.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,205 ✭✭✭✭hmmm


    The end-goal is mass vaccination to ensure that most of the population will not encounter Covid, or variants, as a virus unknown to their immune system. This has always been the goal.

    I'm not going to bother challenging your "vulnerable" comments, that's just naive and has been debunked several times already by others.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,023 ✭✭✭Mike3549


    Might be too late for reply, but my second jab is 18 days after 1st, for my missus 19. Others also reporting 18 days. 17 days minimum for pfizer



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,205 ✭✭✭✭hmmm


    We actually exceeded the worst-case modelling at Christmas.

    Some people are now trying to argue that the modelling was wrong because we haven't seen predicted hospitalisations and deaths, and this is coming after we made a policy change not to proceed with reopening indoors because the modelling suggested it was risky. It's exhausting dealing with people who don't seem to understand that modelling predicts the future if you don't make a change, it's not a crystal ball and the future will be different if you make changes.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,365 ✭✭✭ceadaoin.


    Well thats not going to happen with vaccines that dont stop people becoming infected or transmitting the virus, is it?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,205 ✭✭✭✭hmmm


    If you are vaccinated Covid is no longer new to your immune system. If you get a headcold from the virus, or give someone else a headcold, it's not going to be the end of the world and we'll get on with our lives. Certain vulnerable groups and people working with them may need boosters. It sounds from the NPHET press conference today that we may be close to that point of normality thanks to the strong uptake of vaccines.



  • Site Banned Posts: 12,341 ✭✭✭✭Faugheen


    But how do you determine if it is a lot more accurate though? The reason why, for the most part, it hasn't got as bad as the modelling suggests is because there have been actions taken to prevent it from getting that bad.

    I would consider this to be quite accurate so far, would you?

    In fact, it's possible that the end result could be even lower than the modelling forecast - again because of the increased vaccine rollout.

    For any modelling you need a control. In this case, the control was the pace of the vaccine rollout as it was at the time because that was the plan of government at that time.

    The government used that modelling to find ways to improve the vaccine rollout, which in turn is now showing its impact.

    Holohan is talking now about easing more restrictions. When did you ever expect NPHET discussing this when cases are rising and are now in the thousands? That's because of the action taken to avoid the worst case scenarios in the modelling data, in this case a further vaccine ramp-up.

    Stephen Donnelly deserves a lot of flak for many reasons (including just being a bluffing dope) but, after a slow start, he's got the vaccine rollout absolutely spot on and, when people here were suggesting the rest of the world was laughing at us, our vaccine rollout has now on track to surpass the UK and Israel, and other EU countries are re-introducing restrictions (albeit of lesser significance than before) whereas we're not.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,739 ✭✭✭scamalert


    Great model I think banks used same one prior every recession.



  • Site Banned Posts: 12,341 ✭✭✭✭Faugheen


    That's because the vaccine rollout was completely different at the time. There was no rollout of J&J in pharmacies, there was no rollout of J&J and AZ among young age cohorts (it wasn't even advised at the time) and there were many over 60s and FHCW who had yet to receive their second jab of AZ - even to the point that Luke O'Neill, Kingston Mills and Sam McConkey were all saying that they should all be given an mRNA booster. The gap between the two jabs of AZ was reduced significantly instead.

    Those projections were on the basis that literally nothing changed in the vaccine rollout (the control) but, in truth, a lot changed.



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  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Oh Lord

    The modelling was insane, it didnt seem to take into account the hundreds of thousands of people who had covid but never got a PCR test.

    The modelling also seemed to predict too high a rate of sickness, assuming everyone unvaccinated would get covid when many people have natural immunity.

    Once the very frail elderly living in congregated settings were vaccinated you removed fifty per cent of people who wiuld die from covid, these people wouldnt be brought to hospital.

    The other vulnerable people, mainly the obese who have serious underlying conditions relating to their weight were vaccinated long before now. Hopefully these people have enough sense not to mix widely, we have protected them through vaccination and there in no more we can do for themnow.

    Very few people vaccinated in the last few weeks were st risk from covid so its nonsense to say the modelling was accurate and the world would have fallen in if we had opened indoor dining in July.

    Enough already, time to get back to normal.

    Post edited by [Deleted User] on


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    Given that the latest set of projections go from well above where we are now to whole counties getting sick at the same time I'm not sure about the definition of accurate. The UK rate of hospitalisation was under 2% yet they opted for a range of 2%-3%. Why? They didn't take the change to J&J into account saying it wouldn't change anything, yet it has.


    What has Donnelly got to do with anything? He just tweets what other people tell him. Of our two recent ministers he's a very distant second and Harris was no great shakes.

    The HSE are running the programme and yes vaccination has improved things but it's really not included in their models. If it were they'd see how far off some of those upper scaremongering projections are. They wouldn't need to comment on the "slow rise" of cases in July, something they did not predict in models.

    It is about time they delivered good news anyway. Thankfully, it was easy because communications from that quarter has been quite appalling at times since last October. TBH their time is coming to an end and we should thank them for their service, as we are heading to where we no longer need them.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,455 ✭✭✭lee_baby_simms


    So surely then we should expect massive waves of cases and deaths in neighbouring countries with less vaccine penetration if the modelling had any merit?



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    The issue lots had about the models was that the worst case models are the ones being used to delay easing of restrictions.

    Yes, models are predictions and things can change. But things changed I think within a day (?) of Nolan’s model going to government as AZ & J&J had their age limits lowered. Therefore, should Nolan and co. not have adapted their models almost immediately?

    Now, I accept, privately they may have done this - but it hasn’t really been communicated.



  • Registered Users Posts: 26 rp79


    When has nphet modelling been relatively accurate? Genuine question. The major focus on the models I can recall was in October when there were figure rolled out to justify level 5 none of which materialised. Case numbers actually fell as level 3 restrictions kicked in but this was swept under the carpet.

    at Christmas there was a gross under estimate of case numbers understandably as alpha wasn’t factored in.

    In April they were was talking of 7,000 cases a day in may and June

    The latest models figures on icu and deaths seem way off.

    I accept there may have been occasions when they have been more accurate but can’t recall them.

    What I can’t understand is when a control factor changes why they can’t produce a new set of models. Why aren’t we more agile here. It would take some time but surely they have enough days now to revise the models produced a month ago



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,495 ✭✭✭✭bucketybuck


    Remember folk that this is a religion. If the numbers increased then they were right, and if the numbers fell, then they were also right.

    People immediately called out those models as total bollocks at the time and everything since has shown that to be the case.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,647 ✭✭✭✭bodhrandude


    Ceadaoin "Well thats not going to happen with vaccines that don't stop people becoming infected or transmitting the virus, is it? "

    Well, tell the virus to fcuk off then.

    If you want to get into it, you got to get out of it. (Hawkwind 1982)



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,667 ✭✭✭Klonker


    I listened to the majority of the NPHET briefing today and I've been critical about them on here quite a bit in how they present figures and are overly negative but I thought they were very optimistic today and gave a great press conference, particularly Tony Holohan. Suggested further easing in next few weeks and also hinted at end of all restrictions in not to distant future also. Also put to bed the idea of herd immunity being possible.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,192 ✭✭✭airy fairy


    You've made some sweeping disgusting statements there, but to be expected I guess.

    My daughter, age 17 was one of those 'vulnerable' but strangely, she wasn't obese. But has a complicated immuno health system. Do you suggested that there's enough done for her now, she's got the vaccine and needs to step aside for the likes of you to live your life?



  • Registered Users Posts: 98 ✭✭Pepsirebel


    I was in a private hospital back in May, for non coivid reasons, and the radiographer that did my ct said they are at it 12 to 13 hours a day with a mobile mri unit in the car park to help



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    So basically wait to see how the UK get on and copy them.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,742 ✭✭✭✭AdamD


    This is of course the no-lose situation with NPHET. Come up with dreadful modelling to push a change, change goes through - now we will 'never know' if the modelling was correct at all because the circumstances have changed.



    And you lap it up



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,742 ✭✭✭✭AdamD


    As emotive as your post is, frankly yes. Your daughter has been vaccinated, what more do you want from society in this?



  • Site Banned Posts: 12,341 ✭✭✭✭Faugheen


    Yes. It’s all part of a plan by Kaiser Tony to keep power.

    I must be the stupid one for believing that rubbish was over and done with.



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Well what else can we do.

    Do you think my young adults should stay at home for the foreseeable future rather than getting on with their lives.

    I want my life back now and I want my youngest to have night clubs and university life in September.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,192 ✭✭✭airy fairy


    Not saying there's anything to be done. It's done.

    But the generalisation that obese people are the only people that are classed as vulnerable is what is the disgusting part. There are thousands of people who have a vulnerable status that are not obese. A sweeping generalisation and no empathy whatsoever.

    It's also been suggested that those in a vulnerable condition should just now keep out of the way now.

    My disgust has nothing to do with how we are coming out if this horror.



  • Registered Users Posts: 15,302 ✭✭✭✭stephenjmcd


    Agree on the disgusting generalisations being made, even last night this poster said when we look back most that have died will have lived longer than their life expectancy or have had an underlying issue because they were obese. Absolutely disgusting generalisation along with insulting to the many families who lost loved ones.


    As for the rest, I think once people are vaccinated they'll have to get back to normal life, those who might be vulnerable still should in my opinion consider mask wearing in crowded settings for example. It's a difficult balance I feel



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 24,468 ✭✭✭✭lawred2


    I'm sorry to hear about your daughter. But to be blunt, she has been vaccinated! What more can you legitimately expect from society?



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Yes, the better approach is wait and see so they can say “we told you so” if the worst case came to pass.

    Because that’s what it’s all about, having models that predict exactly what happens and not having models to aid decision making to prevent predictions happening.

    This place makes me fear for the future of humanity given the exponential rise in pure nonsense recently



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,192 ✭✭✭airy fairy


    Could you read the further post I made. It's not about my daughter. It's the generalisation of vulnerable people being put into an obese category without empathy. Such statements seem to be the norm for that poster though.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,470 ✭✭✭FintanMcluskey


    Obesity is 2nd only to old age as a risk factor


    I know it’s offensive but being overweight is a huge risk factor


    As we show in this report, increased bodyweight is the second greatest predictor of hospitalisation and a high risk of death for people suffering from COVID-19. Only old age rates as a higher risk factor.




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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,192 ✭✭✭airy fairy


    Do you think overweight people should just keep out if the way now? Vaccine got, now back in the box? As the poster suggested.



  • Registered Users Posts: 15,302 ✭✭✭✭stephenjmcd


    Yes it is indeed a risk and I don't think the issue is with the risk here, the issue however is that poster has suggested that when we look back only those who were past life expectancy and those who were obese will have died. That's an absolutely disgusting take on it, highly insensitive and highly insulting to the families of those who's loved ones passed away in the last 18 months, that they all fall into either of those groupings.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 24,468 ✭✭✭✭lawred2


    Well if they have been vaccinated, then what else are you looking for?



  • Registered Users Posts: 15,302 ✭✭✭✭stephenjmcd


    Been a fair whack on nonsense and not that much in the form of critical thinking along with a awful stink of refeg from some of the new accounts posting the same crap day in day out.

    Think I'll call it a day on these threads shortly, it's been a roller coaster but I think it's time to get off the ride now.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,192 ✭✭✭airy fairy


    Perhaps an education to some on what illnesses are under the vulnerable umbrella, not just old or obese people. Throwaway statements show ignorance.

    And maybe reading posts correctly!



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    The vast majority who died were very old.

    Being obese is the next high risk category, we tip toe around this and instead of dealing with it we lock golf courses, tennis courts, five a side football, gyms etc etc for months on end.

    Boris having had a bad outcome due to weighing seventeen stone is at least talking about obesity snd taking steps to reduce it.

    The elderly and obese utilise a huge proportion of the health budget.

    we are going to have to find billions of euros to fund the health service in the future if obesity isnt tackled

    Every country with huge numbers of obese adults fared badly in the pandemic, thats a fact.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 24,468 ✭✭✭✭lawred2


    Huh!?

    Do you think overweight people should just keep out if the way now? Vaccine got, now back in the box? As the poster suggested

    I responded directly to your question about overweight people once vaccinated! Which bit did I misread?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,495 ✭✭✭✭bucketybuck


    So what is your alternative? That the whole **** world hides under its bed for the rest of all time?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,365 ✭✭✭ceadaoin.


    Maybe they should take responsibility for their own health and risk and not expect society to stay shut down to keep them safe? Just a suggestion



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  • Registered Users Posts: 744 ✭✭✭Messi19


    Paul Moynagh questioning the NPHET modelling on the tonight show



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Paul Moynagh talking well about on virgin media about the models. He’s surprised about how pessimistic the models were and why they didn’t include seasonality, schools closing etc.

    There is definitely an element on here of do not question Philip Nolan’s models. Good to see a very balanced contributor mention the models shortcomings. Similar happened in the UK with the 100k cases prediction.



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    A pal runs a gym business for children and her business has been shut down for months.

    She couldn’t even run a summer camp as it’s indoors and she has no idea when she can open up again.

    Not all children are into GAA so we must spend money on other sports outlets.

    children’s indoor camps should have been allowed to take place, excessive micro control going on re these low risk activities.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,192 ✭✭✭airy fairy


    You do know a great number of obesity in adults is not from a person's lifestyle, but from a wide range of illnesses, medications, physical disabilities etc which can't be fixed by themselves.

    Maybe read up on it.

    Just a suggestion.

    The ignorance on this thread is just astounding.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,255 ✭✭✭Sammy2012


    My kids attended a camp a couple of weeks ago and it was indoors. They were outside for part of the day but some of it was indoors. There was around 50kids there with them. There are lots of camps going on, just like there are lots of communions and baptisms going on. It's great to see people just getting on with life. The government are deluded if they think people are following a lot of their restrictions. People are moving on. It's crazy that summer camps are not allowed go ahead when in 4 weeks time kids will all be back to school. And that's totally safe.


    On a different note I was going to go in to Costa today for a coffee with my kids. But I had no copy of my cert on me. So I didn't bother. The government have removed all spontaneity from our lives. You have to plan everything now. Noone wants to live like that.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 242 ✭✭berocca2016


    To be objectively fair, whilst some people are overweight for a medical reason, most are overweight due to firstly a bad diet and secondly from lack of exercise.

    This is coming from someone who has been obese because I ate too much and could hardly run 100 metres.

    People who can should be encouraged to be more healthy and make healthier choices, thus society will benefit by utilising less resources on preventable illnesses and thus being able to help those who can't help themselves.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 26 rp79


    Is it too much to ask that they present two scenarios. One that will show what happens if we keep on the path of lifting restrictions and one where we press pause.

    They were asked for models on what happens if we keep indoor dining closed and had nothing to present.

    Thar wouldn’t wash in the real world.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,742 ✭✭✭✭AdamD


    Plenty of people have worn masks, got vaccinated and not agreed with NPHET. Shocking as it may seem.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,495 ✭✭✭fun loving criminal


    My workplace is nothing like that. No staggering breaks, all of us mixed together. So not all workplaces has those safety measures in place and mixing of staff, both vaccinated and non-vaccinated. But it's not hospitality so it seems it's all ok.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,570 ✭✭✭Tyrone212


    I wonder how many people on this thread are partaking in this campaign to damage business who are on their knees putting jobs and livelihoods at stake? Was it just faux outrage at pubs being closer after all? Seemingly so.

    After all, the comment the other day comparing anyone in favour of vaccine passports to drink alcohol inside as being the same to people in the past being complicit in the worst atrocities in human history had overwhelming support. Concentration camps, genocide, beheadings, a passport to drink alcohol inside, spot the difference fruitloops.

    I hope you're all very proud of yourselves , you and your ilk are representing yourselves well.


    Restaurants dealing with 'malicious, coordinated' campaign of abuse from anti-vaccine cert protesters

    A Facebook page is coordinating an online campaign against businesses that reopened indoor dining this week.

    THE GOVERNMENT HAS been told that pubs and restaurants have been the subject of coordinated online abuse and fake reviews this week by those opposing the use of Covid-19 vaccine certs to attend indoor dining.

    The Restaurant Association of Ireland has written a letter to the Government about the issue, as well as to Facebook and Google. It is to contact the Garda Commissioner over ‘fraudulent’ posts that it said is causing its members’ businesses to suffer.

    A Facebook page with hundreds of members which opposes the use of vaccine certificates has seen users post the names of businesses that have reopened indoor dining and resulted in hundreds of comments being left on businesses’ Facebook posts announcing their reopening.

    Many of the negative comments on these businesses’ pages are from Facebook accounts which give their location as being far away from the pub or restaurant. 

    When asked about the page, Facebook said it does not violate its rules.

    One-star reviews are also being left on Google reviews for businesses that have reopened indoor dining. Many accounts posting one-star reviews that cite “discrimination” or a “two-tier” system have left similar reviews on multiple businesses across the country.

    This comes after hospitality owners said last week that they had experienced false bookings, and staff had experienced abuse over the phone and on social media by people opposed to the Digital Covid Certificate.

    CEO of the Restaurant Association of Ireland Adrian Cummins has written a letter to the Minister for Tourism Catherine Martin to state that its members have reported fake bookings and reviews on various platforms this week. The letter says:

    As per our members, those leaving reviews are directly impacting upon the competitiveness of these businesses and their ability to trade.

    “Fake bookings and reviews are a malicious, concerted and coordinated campaign of fraudulent misrepresentation towards small businesses who are simply adhering to the law of the land.”



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,210 ✭✭✭✭Goldengirl


    Firstly how do you know if I have lost income or not as a result of the pandemic?

    Many nurses had no childcare in the first second waves of this and had to take leave or change so that one parent would be at home while the other worked.

    Or else employ private babysitters for the duration at a major cost. Couldn't take parental leave as were needed to work, grandparents unable to help.

    I worked extra shifts without getting any extra payment to cover for some of these hard pressed colleagues, and was meant to get time in lieu.

    Guess what?. . that never happened... We haven't got our regular annual leave as its too busy never mind TOIL.

    Only taking some leave now when possible.

    But we will get sorted eventually and I don't regret it as those same colleagues have been there for me and mine in other ways through this which I will never forget.

    But yeah let's not forget everybody else who suffered through this while healthcare workers and public servants are the baddies somehow according to you.

    What about essential retail workers?

    They have all worked the frontline creaming in overtime!

    Let's go for them too, yes, the jammy beggars... minimum wage with everybody from masked to half masked in their faces every day!

    What about people in pharmacies, GP practices , dentists with all that money they have been earning, how dare they?

    Bus drivers only half filling their buses...... Lazy beggars?

    Every single person who has drawn a wage during this... Getting money for doing... nothing? Should be ashamed of themselves!

    I have Never said that it was OK for businesses to be closed, just understand why indoor dining was postponed along with many other people here. I have always supported the PUP and assistance for businesses.

    I don't disagree about effects on young people or that outdoor sports should have been prioritised both for health and social reasons.

    I have kids myself and the more people are vaccinated the harder it has been to explain why the need to keep with restrictions to them.

    But you have been incessantly going on about people who have just been doing their best in their jobs through difficult times, for everyone.

    You talk as if hcws have had it easy but it is obvious you only listen to what confirms your bias.

    Now If you don't mind can I request you not reply or quote me again as you seem to be quoting me to have a go at hcws, public servants and all manner of restrictions etc.

    While I do have a sense of responsibility I am not in any way shape or form to blame for everything that has gone on through Covid, and nor are any of the nurses I work with. Believe me when I say that we have too much to be doing but would be glad to help out if the government should fall and no one else will step in. After all that is what nurses do well, step in and sort it out when everyone else is off duty or it's not in their job description.

    Three posts in a row is a bit much when I have already asked you not to because I didn't want to get into a ' to and fro' as I said yesterday.

    I could see then we were only going to disagree and not get on, and I was so right 😊

    Post edited by Goldengirl on


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