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US and Nato withdrawal from Afghanistan...- threadbanned users in OP

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  • Registered Users Posts: 7,755 ✭✭✭Hande hoche!


    One suggestion was about six months for the capital to be threatened. Previously it was imagined that it would be a few years based on the post Soviet withdrawal era. An indicator would be towns or cities falling.



  • Registered Users Posts: 9,381 ✭✭✭Yurt2


    Curiously enough, probably the West's foremost expert on Afghanistan is a Paddy. A chap from Wicklow called Michael Semple. Has lived between there and Pakistan for decades and speaks a number of the local languages.

    Very interesting character and well worth a Google. Was in the employ of the Irish Department of Foreign Affairs (well his salary was being paid by them) when Micheál Martin was Foreign Minister and he was Deputy Ambassador at the EU embassy in Kabul. A real Lawrence of Arabia type.

    He was kicked out of Afghanistan by the government apparently at the behest of the US as they held that he was in fact an MI6 officer conducting back channel negotiations with the Taliban against American policy.



  • Registered Users Posts: 7,755 ✭✭✭Hande hoche!


    Sure it's quite telling that you have the UK defence minister saying that they would work with the Taliban if they take power. Meanwhile the group seems to be pushing on Kandahar from three directions.



  • Registered Users Posts: 6,141 ✭✭✭Elmer Blooker




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  • Registered Users Posts: 9,381 ✭✭✭Yurt2


    Shared a meal with some young US officers who had done tours of Afghanistan. All of them were bamboozled as to what the endgame of the conflict would be. These guys weren't meatheads, all educated in West Point with good heads on their shoulders.

    Afghanistan will be a trouble spot for years to come. Despite what their state media is saying, it's going to become a thorn in the side of China now, with a significant amount of pissed-off Uyghurs and Tajiks holed up in the northern part of the country. China was actually quite comfortable with the US picking up the security tab for the country for this reason.



  • Registered Users Posts: 40,291 ✭✭✭✭Gatling


    They may have left but yet the US carried out airstrikes against Taliban position and also attacking and destroying equipment captured by the Taliban



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,538 ✭✭✭jmreire


    Yes they have even now removed most of their physical military presence , but they did say that they would continue to defend their interests /allies there.....so I guess that will mean long distance strikes. The "warcry" and propaganda of the taliban about removing foreign invaders and restoring Islam to Afghanistan rings hollow when the talibs are just invaders themselves, (ex Pakistani Madrassa's,) and why bring Islam to an already Islamic Country? Poor Afghani's.



  • Registered Users Posts: 10,191 ✭✭✭✭smurfjed


    There is only so much support that they can provide with B52’s. Remembering that the Taliban actually reduced the production of poppies, I can see the northern tribal leaders going against them as they won’t want to be stopped again. As for the main cities, with a population of 30 million people, surely it’s up to them to fight for their future.



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,538 ✭✭✭jmreire


    After the Russians ( and the Americans) left, all of the tribes and clans who had fought together to oust the Russians, turned on each other to the extent that had the Taliban not intervened, what was left of the Afghan cities after the Russian / Afghan war, would have been destroyed completely. They were welcomed initially, as they restored the peace, and brought stability and security to the part of the Country they controlled. And now these self same tribes and clans will wheel and deal to make the best of the present situation for them selves. So the Taliban didn't have to fight for all the land they are now claiming. Meetings were held, discussions took place,and agreements were made.Had all the cash and material that the US pumped into Afghanistan made its way to where it was actually intended for, then you can be sure that the Taliban would not be getting so many easy walk overs....but for many Afghans, especially in the rural areas, a deal with the Taliban might make better sense to them,and of course you have the religious obligation to remove the infidel invaders. So maybe you will have the Norther Alliance organizing a region in the North, but in the major cities? Kabul? Mazar-i Sharif? Herat? The resistance in the cities will come from powerfull individuals, who literally stand to lose everything if the Taliban take full control again. The Taliban followed Mullah Omars directive when it came to the poppy dealing...he turned that tap on and off when it suited him. Will be interesting to see who will control it now, and what they will do with this cash crop.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 10,191 ✭✭✭✭smurfjed


    China has apparently reopened talks with the Taliban regarding Mining. But unfortunately from watching China dealing with Africa, they appear to bring nothing to the local economy and don’t hire the local workforce.



  • Posts: 3,689 [Deleted User]


    The bottom line an the Taliban be paid off for their "Protection". Can a tribe like that grasp that notion.



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,538 ✭✭✭jmreire


    I'd say that is more to do with what happens to the present mining contract they have if or when the present Govt collapses.The Chinese do great deals only for the Chinese......they offer great loans to Countrys who cannot afford to upgrade or build new ports ( Ports being their favourite, but also anything else that gives them a foot hold in any Country they are interested in. Then in default, when the Country cannot meet the repayments, they step in an activate a clause that gives them exclusive control of the facility for X Nr of years. Which will have been build by them using Chinese labour, and when they take over, will be staffed with Chinese. And all perfectly legal.



  • Registered Users Posts: 10,191 ✭✭✭✭smurfjed


    I have seen that in a number of African airports in the last year, lovely new terminal buildings but there is a missing stretch of concrete so aircraft can’t use it, my guess is that the Chinese are waiting for final payment before they add the concrete.



  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 16,413 Mod ✭✭✭✭Manic Moran




  • Registered Users Posts: 8,538 ✭✭✭jmreire


    Last time they were in charge, they "levied" taxes on the areas they controlled...Farmers, business people, imports / exports etc. All paid taxes. But as to buying them off?? How do you mean?



  • Posts: 3,689 [Deleted User]


    I don't know.



  • Registered Users Posts: 9,381 ✭✭✭Yurt2


    It would be a lol and a half to watch China blunder into Afghanistan and get chewed up, and they would. Their state media already has printed articles to the effect that they are friends with the Taliban and will do business with them. The tribes of Afghanistan have been slowly strangling invading empires for sport since the Persians in the 12th century. The British, Soviets, Americans have all tried to take a bite and came away with their tails between their legs. They even butchered the grandson of Ghengis Khan.

    The truth is they are extremely nervous about the security vacuum that the US will leave behind them. There's a not-insignificant amount of Uighurs and Tajiks hanging out in the north of the country; two ethnicities the CCP have been shoving in gulags in Xinjiang. If they p*ck-around with any mining interests they have secured, they'll find themselves in trouble very fast.



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,538 ✭✭✭jmreire


    Everyone is jumping on the US ( and their Allies) for "invading" and regime change etc. And to be honest, these chages are more than justified,,Irag and the WMD being the worst of the lot. But Afghanistan is different I think. If there were elections or better still, a referendum in Afghanistan to decide if the US should go or stay after their 20 years stint....My bet would be an overwhelming "Remain" vote. That might seem strange, but when has an army of one country invaded another Country, to spend billions on it, and try to modernize it? Fot twenty years, the American tax payer has financed reconstruction in Afghanistan,,,,,,they built schools, hospitals roads, bridges, water treatment etc. and not only this, they paid the salarys of the military while they trained them, and lots more. That was a lot of money spent in Afghanistan. Some how, I can't see the Taliban lavishing the same amount...last time they were in charge, they ran the Country into the ground...the UN had to step in at times with food, it was that bad. And as for previous invaders, historically Afghanistan has defeated them all so far. Outside of the cities, it can be a very inhospitable place,,,,summer temps rising to the 40's + and sub zero in the winters. Yet you will see a lone Afghan walking along in tne middle of nowhere, in a climate you might not survive more than a few days in, under the same circumstances. As to how the Chinese might do.....interesting question, but we will have to wait a few mths more to see how that plays out. There's growing anger in the Islamic world about what is happening the Uighurs', and if they organise around that issue, they could make a lot of trouble fir China.



  • Registered Users Posts: 40,291 ✭✭✭✭Gatling


    That's a new one

    "China’s foreign minister, Wang Yi, called the Taliban “a pivotal military and political force,” but urged their leaders “to hold high the banner of peace talks,” according to a statement by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

    He pressed the group to work to burnish its diplomatic image and extracted a public pledge that the group would not allow fighters to use Afghan territory as a base to carry out attacks inside China, according to the statement."


    https://www.nytimes.com/2021/07/28/world/asia/china-taliban-afghanistan.html?smid=fb-nytimes&smtyp=cur



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  • Registered Users Posts: 9,381 ✭✭✭Yurt2


    Keep an eye on this one. China and their buddies in Islamabad are the big losers in this security vacuum and Beijing would be correct to be worried.

    Earlier this year Indian and Afghani intelligence rumbled a Chinese intelligence cell of a dozen people who were posing as businessmen and language teachers and were said to be financially supporting various extremist groups. China blandly saying they "will not interfere in Afghani internal affairs" is BS, they're already there doing so.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,749 ✭✭✭donaghs


    Looks like the Taliban wants friendly relations with China, for now.

    China Seeks Taliban Promise to Wage War on Uighur Fighters in Afghanistan (newsweek.com)

    Taliban outlaws Uyghur Muslim fighters in bid to befriend China (telegraph.co.uk)


    In an earlier precedent, Erdogan's Turkey have gone silent on the Uigher issue, in exchange for good relations with China.


    The main international fallout I see from this is the Afghan Taliban's ally, the Pakistan Taliban (TTP). in a complicated situation, the Pakistan Intelligence services are aiding the Afghan Taliban - who are aiding the Pakistan Taliban, who are fighting the Pakistan Military.


    Opinion | The Taliban is playing a double game - The Washington Post

    The Afghan Taliban have been reassuring everyone of their good intentions. "That looks like a smart strategy — yet we’ve just seen a striking departure from this pattern. On July 26, the head of the Pakistani Taliban gave an extraordinary interview to CNN in which he declared that his group intends to seize control of Pakistani territories along the Afghan border and “make them independent.” Why did the Taliban leadership allow him to make such a provocative statement?"



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,538 ✭✭✭jmreire


    So Islamabad are now worried about the Taliban.....seeing as they facilitated the madrassas that gave birth to them, with a view to controlling events in Afghanistan. And now they threaten Paklistan itself. Poetic justice, and richly deserved. But it will be interesting to see how China fares out, assuming that the Taliban radical religious stance remains the same as it was before.



  • Registered Users Posts: 160 ✭✭ChickenDish


    Trillions of dollars, hundreds of thousands of deaths later what have the Americans achieved........? Nothing!

    It all plays out like some sick demented joke, infrastructure destroyed, resources/money wasted, trauma/misery caused, human loss, fortunes made, war crimes committed etc etc . And the end result is what?! Nothing has been achieved.



  • Registered Users Posts: 9,381 ✭✭✭Yurt2


    Afghanistan is a security lynchpin for the region. Bang in the middle of a very fragile neighborhood and is a convenient ungovernable bolthole for nefarious actors.

    The world (more than that, their neighbors) need a stable Afghanistan. I'll give the US credit for trying to deliver it, even if it was huge cost to them. Islamabad and Beijing (and Dehli for that matter) will need to pick up the slack now.



  • Registered Users Posts: 20,084 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    Not nothing at all; that money and effort bought the experience of what the country could be like if not run by the taliban.



  • Registered Users Posts: 160 ✭✭ChickenDish


    So you would have us believe that before America went in to Afghanistan it was unstable and the reason they invaded a sovereign nation was to create stability in the region - what the actual Fcuk

    Have you any idea of the instability the Americans and their allies have created in the middle East since they invaded Afghanistan!?

    Afghanistan and Iraq are 2 of the most dangerous and unstable countries on the planet because of the Americans.



  • Registered Users Posts: 9,381 ✭✭✭Yurt2


    I'd take a look at the history of Afghanistan before laying the blame at the door of the Americans on this one.

    Spare me the WTFness.



  • Registered Users Posts: 12,262 ✭✭✭✭Flinty997



    I wouldn't call any of these places "stable" before the US, and their allies went into either place. I wouldn't say they made it better or made it worse. They were crazy to into either place. If the Chinese go in they'll plunder any resources and just disappear any opposition, they won't play nice. But its not much different to what the west did with its empires. I doubt anyone will object if they do. The human rights abuses, no one will do anything about because China is too big.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 8,538 ✭✭✭jmreire


    You get your info from some Afghans? Or where? So 20 years of secure education and health services, especially for women, was a waste of money? I've mentioned this earlier but in case you missed it:- If there was a referendum in Afghanistan on whether the US should stay or go, which way would it go??? Believe me , the Taliban are also invaders, but of a most unwelcome kind....they are not bringing peace, stability,prosperity and security. Wait and see what Afghanistan will be like after even one year of Talib rule.

    #



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