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Covid 19 Part XXXV-956,720 ROI (5,952 deaths) 452,946 NI (3,002 deaths) (08/01) Read OP

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  • Registered Users Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    Given that the latest set of projections go from well above where we are now to whole counties getting sick at the same time I'm not sure about the definition of accurate. The UK rate of hospitalisation was under 2% yet they opted for a range of 2%-3%. Why? They didn't take the change to J&J into account saying it wouldn't change anything, yet it has.


    What has Donnelly got to do with anything? He just tweets what other people tell him. Of our two recent ministers he's a very distant second and Harris was no great shakes.

    The HSE are running the programme and yes vaccination has improved things but it's really not included in their models. If it were they'd see how far off some of those upper scaremongering projections are. They wouldn't need to comment on the "slow rise" of cases in July, something they did not predict in models.

    It is about time they delivered good news anyway. Thankfully, it was easy because communications from that quarter has been quite appalling at times since last October. TBH their time is coming to an end and we should thank them for their service, as we are heading to where we no longer need them.



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,426 ✭✭✭lee_baby_simms


    So surely then we should expect massive waves of cases and deaths in neighbouring countries with less vaccine penetration if the modelling had any merit?



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    The issue lots had about the models was that the worst case models are the ones being used to delay easing of restrictions.

    Yes, models are predictions and things can change. But things changed I think within a day (?) of Nolan’s model going to government as AZ & J&J had their age limits lowered. Therefore, should Nolan and co. not have adapted their models almost immediately?

    Now, I accept, privately they may have done this - but it hasn’t really been communicated.



  • Registered Users Posts: 26 rp79


    When has nphet modelling been relatively accurate? Genuine question. The major focus on the models I can recall was in October when there were figure rolled out to justify level 5 none of which materialised. Case numbers actually fell as level 3 restrictions kicked in but this was swept under the carpet.

    at Christmas there was a gross under estimate of case numbers understandably as alpha wasn’t factored in.

    In April they were was talking of 7,000 cases a day in may and June

    The latest models figures on icu and deaths seem way off.

    I accept there may have been occasions when they have been more accurate but can’t recall them.

    What I can’t understand is when a control factor changes why they can’t produce a new set of models. Why aren’t we more agile here. It would take some time but surely they have enough days now to revise the models produced a month ago



  • Registered Users Posts: 18,441 ✭✭✭✭bucketybuck


    Remember folk that this is a religion. If the numbers increased then they were right, and if the numbers fell, then they were also right.

    People immediately called out those models as total bollocks at the time and everything since has shown that to be the case.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 12,552 ✭✭✭✭bodhrandude


    Ceadaoin "Well thats not going to happen with vaccines that don't stop people becoming infected or transmitting the virus, is it? "

    Well, tell the virus to fcuk off then.

    If you want to get into it, you got to get out of it. (Hawkwind 1982)



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,667 ✭✭✭Klonker


    I listened to the majority of the NPHET briefing today and I've been critical about them on here quite a bit in how they present figures and are overly negative but I thought they were very optimistic today and gave a great press conference, particularly Tony Holohan. Suggested further easing in next few weeks and also hinted at end of all restrictions in not to distant future also. Also put to bed the idea of herd immunity being possible.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,142 ✭✭✭airy fairy


    You've made some sweeping disgusting statements there, but to be expected I guess.

    My daughter, age 17 was one of those 'vulnerable' but strangely, she wasn't obese. But has a complicated immuno health system. Do you suggested that there's enough done for her now, she's got the vaccine and needs to step aside for the likes of you to live your life?



  • Registered Users Posts: 98 ✭✭Pepsirebel


    I was in a private hospital back in May, for non coivid reasons, and the radiographer that did my ct said they are at it 12 to 13 hours a day with a mobile mri unit in the car park to help



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    So basically wait to see how the UK get on and copy them.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 12,583 ✭✭✭✭AdamD


    This is of course the no-lose situation with NPHET. Come up with dreadful modelling to push a change, change goes through - now we will 'never know' if the modelling was correct at all because the circumstances have changed.



    And you lap it up



  • Registered Users Posts: 12,583 ✭✭✭✭AdamD


    As emotive as your post is, frankly yes. Your daughter has been vaccinated, what more do you want from society in this?



  • Site Banned Posts: 12,341 ✭✭✭✭Faugheen


    Yes. It’s all part of a plan by Kaiser Tony to keep power.

    I must be the stupid one for believing that rubbish was over and done with.



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Well what else can we do.

    Do you think my young adults should stay at home for the foreseeable future rather than getting on with their lives.

    I want my life back now and I want my youngest to have night clubs and university life in September.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,142 ✭✭✭airy fairy


    Not saying there's anything to be done. It's done.

    But the generalisation that obese people are the only people that are classed as vulnerable is what is the disgusting part. There are thousands of people who have a vulnerable status that are not obese. A sweeping generalisation and no empathy whatsoever.

    It's also been suggested that those in a vulnerable condition should just now keep out of the way now.

    My disgust has nothing to do with how we are coming out if this horror.



  • Registered Users Posts: 15,255 ✭✭✭✭stephenjmcd


    Agree on the disgusting generalisations being made, even last night this poster said when we look back most that have died will have lived longer than their life expectancy or have had an underlying issue because they were obese. Absolutely disgusting generalisation along with insulting to the many families who lost loved ones.


    As for the rest, I think once people are vaccinated they'll have to get back to normal life, those who might be vulnerable still should in my opinion consider mask wearing in crowded settings for example. It's a difficult balance I feel



  • Registered Users Posts: 24,357 ✭✭✭✭lawred2


    I'm sorry to hear about your daughter. But to be blunt, she has been vaccinated! What more can you legitimately expect from society?



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Yes, the better approach is wait and see so they can say “we told you so” if the worst case came to pass.

    Because that’s what it’s all about, having models that predict exactly what happens and not having models to aid decision making to prevent predictions happening.

    This place makes me fear for the future of humanity given the exponential rise in pure nonsense recently



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,142 ✭✭✭airy fairy


    Could you read the further post I made. It's not about my daughter. It's the generalisation of vulnerable people being put into an obese category without empathy. Such statements seem to be the norm for that poster though.



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,374 ✭✭✭FintanMcluskey


    Obesity is 2nd only to old age as a risk factor


    I know it’s offensive but being overweight is a huge risk factor


    As we show in this report, increased bodyweight is the second greatest predictor of hospitalisation and a high risk of death for people suffering from COVID-19. Only old age rates as a higher risk factor.




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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,142 ✭✭✭airy fairy


    Do you think overweight people should just keep out if the way now? Vaccine got, now back in the box? As the poster suggested.



  • Registered Users Posts: 15,255 ✭✭✭✭stephenjmcd


    Yes it is indeed a risk and I don't think the issue is with the risk here, the issue however is that poster has suggested that when we look back only those who were past life expectancy and those who were obese will have died. That's an absolutely disgusting take on it, highly insensitive and highly insulting to the families of those who's loved ones passed away in the last 18 months, that they all fall into either of those groupings.



  • Registered Users Posts: 24,357 ✭✭✭✭lawred2


    Well if they have been vaccinated, then what else are you looking for?



  • Registered Users Posts: 15,255 ✭✭✭✭stephenjmcd


    Been a fair whack on nonsense and not that much in the form of critical thinking along with a awful stink of refeg from some of the new accounts posting the same crap day in day out.

    Think I'll call it a day on these threads shortly, it's been a roller coaster but I think it's time to get off the ride now.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,142 ✭✭✭airy fairy


    Perhaps an education to some on what illnesses are under the vulnerable umbrella, not just old or obese people. Throwaway statements show ignorance.

    And maybe reading posts correctly!



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    The vast majority who died were very old.

    Being obese is the next high risk category, we tip toe around this and instead of dealing with it we lock golf courses, tennis courts, five a side football, gyms etc etc for months on end.

    Boris having had a bad outcome due to weighing seventeen stone is at least talking about obesity snd taking steps to reduce it.

    The elderly and obese utilise a huge proportion of the health budget.

    we are going to have to find billions of euros to fund the health service in the future if obesity isnt tackled

    Every country with huge numbers of obese adults fared badly in the pandemic, thats a fact.



  • Registered Users Posts: 24,357 ✭✭✭✭lawred2


    Huh!?

    Do you think overweight people should just keep out if the way now? Vaccine got, now back in the box? As the poster suggested

    I responded directly to your question about overweight people once vaccinated! Which bit did I misread?



  • Registered Users Posts: 18,441 ✭✭✭✭bucketybuck


    So what is your alternative? That the whole **** world hides under its bed for the rest of all time?



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,211 ✭✭✭ceadaoin.


    Maybe they should take responsibility for their own health and risk and not expect society to stay shut down to keep them safe? Just a suggestion



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  • Registered Users Posts: 742 ✭✭✭Messi19


    Paul Moynagh questioning the NPHET modelling on the tonight show



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