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The UK response - Part II - read OP

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Comments

  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 24,119 Mod ✭✭✭✭robinph


    You posted a small chart showing an incomplete set of data with some flags on it and no explanation as to what you were claiming that it showed.


    We eventually got there and you gave us a more complete set of data that actually shows something that is potentially interesting. Don't be offended that an incomplete chart, without explanation, gets interpreted as something different to what you thought it clearly showed. The FT do provide good charts with good information, random unsourced pink and blue lines and flags on a chart are less useful.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,797 ✭✭✭brickster69


    "if you get on the wrong train, get off at the nearest station, the longer it takes you to get off, the more expensive the return trip will be."



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,658 ✭✭✭✭bodhrandude


    Any spikes as yet in Suffolk or Sheffield? Both areas had fairly large festivals last weekend, Latitude in Suffolk and Tramlines in Sheffield, when will we know if there is a spike in these areas, as I want festivals to go ahead in Ireland, so we have to know if they can be safe.

    If you want to get into it, you got to get out of it. (Hawkwind 1982)



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 24,119 Mod ✭✭✭✭robinph


    Here is a map of case rates down to each small local area of a few thousand of population:

    But that likely won't tell you much about festival based cases as attendees are not going to be from one particular area, or in the case of some festivals not even from one age group. You'd need to identify people in advance and test them to get anything useful regarding rate of infections.



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,709 ✭✭✭cloudatlas


    Covid reporting is falling in Scotland. I guess that doesn't mean that people aren't infected just that they aren't showing symptoms?



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,087 ✭✭✭afatbollix


    To the person who doesn't think the Euros were a problem.

    Look a Scotland, Huge spike, In fact, the biggest since the pandemic started and is now almost back to normal.

    Then it spiked in England as they continued in the Euros.

    Sometimes you can be blinded by the data but it's pretty obvious what caused this spike.

    Same with the last ones with Autumn, Christmas and Eid.



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 24,119 Mod ✭✭✭✭robinph


    Cases were high in some areas of Scotland before the Euros started and extra restrictions were in place for pats of Glasgow I belive. Also the matches started at the same time in England and Scotland so why would they only spike in Scotland but not England initially? (cases were already rising in England but you are claiming they weren't so we'll go along with that claim)

    I'm not saying that the Euros were not a problem or the cause of some cases, I'm saying that there is WAY more to it than just a few football matches. Think the games in Hampden were mostly empty in the group stages, but Wembley already had 30k attending at that point rising to 60k. I think that the restrictions on meeting at peoples homes and pubs were still a bit more relaxed in England, but your saying they were not having a rise due to that and it was only the football.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,797 ✭✭✭brickster69


    Fair enough the football may not of helped but imagine all those people around the world who have been having a bad time for the last year and a half. even if that gave those people a bit of hope that things can get better was worth it.



    "if you get on the wrong train, get off at the nearest station, the longer it takes you to get off, the more expensive the return trip will be."



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,147 ✭✭✭TonyMaloney


    True. England losing the final on penalties gave everyone a massive boost.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,797 ✭✭✭brickster69


    What were the Irish youngsters doing, sat outside in the cold having a pint with a mask on, thinking one day we will be doing that. Imagine if the final was in Ireland, you would of had cardboard cut outs in the stadium and everyone on the pitch two metres apart with masks on. 🤣🤣🤣

    "if you get on the wrong train, get off at the nearest station, the longer it takes you to get off, the more expensive the return trip will be."



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,678 ✭✭✭quokula


    They could have done that without having crowds. Aside from all the covid deaths that would have been avoided, it would have saved a lot of people from the muggings and violence around Wembley too.

    Meanwhile the Olympics are being much more responsible, yet the BBC describes Japan's situation as "frightening" here https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-58024158 - a country with double the UK's population but one third of the number of daily infections and a quarter of the daily deaths.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,658 ✭✭✭✭bodhrandude


    Only twenty cases reported in Suffolk so far of people who attended Latitude festival last weekend, we'll know the bigger picture in a week's time of how many cases have come from it.



    If you want to get into it, you got to get out of it. (Hawkwind 1982)



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,728 ✭✭✭serfboard


    "

    "the BBC describes Japan's situation as 'frightening' here https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-58024158 - a country with double the UK's population but one third of the number of daily infections and a quarter of the daily deaths."

    Or, to put it another way: Covid Deaths Per Million: Japan 120, UK 1900.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 31,143 ✭✭✭✭Lumen


    They're quoting the Japanese health minister. That's why the word is in quotes. 😄



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,670 ✭✭✭CalamariFritti


    I haven't been on this thread and I don't know where the argument stands if there is one.

    I just came here to say that I'm glad the Uk shows some actual drive to overcome this pandemic and its seemingly never-ending aftermaths and get back to normal. So far I'm not aware of any big western countries that even dared to speak of 'back to normal' never mind showing a commitment to it or even a committed road map. Thats coming from someone who normally hates the Tories. But credit where credit is due.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,147 ✭✭✭TonyMaloney


    It's really weird seeing Irish people fly the union jack over this.

    Tory incompetence gave the virus the opportunity to mutate into what was originally known as the Kent variant. We were all stuck in our homes for months because of it.

    They're now doubling down on the same mistake, endangering us all again. And some Irish, of all people, are cheering them on.

    Nuts



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,670 ✭✭✭CalamariFritti


    Whats flying the Union Jack got to do with it? Might as well accuse me of flying the Swdish flag then. I'm not even Irish anyway.

    But without the childishness, at the moment it seems they're our only hope to get out of this madness any time soon. Only for them we might continue in this 'ah sure, no alternative, everybody is doing it' madness for years and years. Will be a hard sell when we watch full stadiums and concerts and festivals just across the pond.



  • Registered Users Posts: 827 ✭✭✭HalfAndHalf


    Have you got proof to back up your claim that the Kent variant was a mutation originating in the U.K. and not imported from anywhere else?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 31,143 ✭✭✭✭Lumen


    Not sure what your standard of proof is, but...

    "our results support the hypothesis that B.1.1.7 originated in Kent or Greater London"

    https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2021/07/22/science.abj0113



  • Registered Users Posts: 827 ✭✭✭HalfAndHalf


    My standard is trying to get actual information rather than the same old Brit bashing.

    Your link is very informational yet still says it based on a hypothesis only.

    oh wait I remember you, are you offended that I didn’t agree with your ‘every Londoner isn’t wearing a mask diatribe?’ If you hate it so much what are you even doing there?!?! 😂😂🤦‍♂️

    I’ve made this point before, it could just as easily have been brought in on a ferry or a dinghy. If the U.K. weren’t doing so much testing to isolate new variants then this would have been ‘first discovered’ somewhere else and been ‘their’ variant.

    Comments like Tory incompetence caused the variant to mutate are ridiculous! There are currently 17 variants discovered, who’s government’s incompetence shall we blame for the others? Or maybe it’s because that’s how virals work 🤦‍♂️

    Post edited by HalfAndHalf on


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  • Registered Users Posts: 2,147 ✭✭✭TonyMaloney


    It's been spoken about at length in this thread before with links to back it up - scientists not only know it emerged in Kent, they're pretty certain they know the poor immunocompromised individual that the virus mutated within.

    They do so much genomic sequencing over there that they can be incredibly accurate with their analysis



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,085 ✭✭✭✭BonnieSituation


    You're as well talking to the wall here. Half-and-half isn't one for accepting any criticism of the UK's approach, never mind something easily provable and widely accepted as the provenance of the Kent-variant.

    You've already been labelled a Brit-basher though, so I guess you could try accept that as confirmation of you being correct anyway. 😃



  • Registered Users Posts: 827 ✭✭✭HalfAndHalf


    😂😂😂😂😂

    Ah Bonnie what’s the matter, gotta use others posts to get a dig in at me is it, that’s real tough stuff that! You must be one of those ultra keyboard warriors!

    I mean look how you’ve posted that shite then ran away! Pathetic! 😂😂

    Sure your posts aren’t 90% Brit this Brit that of course! 🤦‍♂️🤦‍♂️🤦‍♂️😂😂😂😂

    Oh wait I remember you, are you offended that I didn’t agree with your ‘every Londoner isn’t wearing a mask now’ diatribe! Why are you there if you hate them so much? 😂🤦‍♂️

    Twist what I said however you like, the fact is the U.K. are beating us to normality, if that grinds your gears to the point you have to attack others than that’s your issue not mine.

    All I did was question a post where its Tory/U.K. bashing of incompetence that caused a variant when there are 17 variants of concern! Posting like that takes all the weight out of the point trying to be made for me as it stinks of being based on hate for some ridiculous reason!

    Post edited by HalfAndHalf on


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,147 ✭✭✭TonyMaloney


    There's thankfully only 4 variants of concern. Not 17.

    Britain, South Africa, Brazil and India. I'm not sure about SA, but I'm quite comfortable with blaming the governments of the other three countries for being hapless, inept gobshites who've done significant damage to all our lives by letting the virus rip.

    You can continue to praise them if you like, but it's really quite bizarre.



  • Registered Users Posts: 827 ✭✭✭HalfAndHalf


    But there are 17 known variants, each of which is transmissible and different to the original in its own right, hence variant.

    I asked a genuine question as I am yet to see any definitive proof to the Kent variant originating there, sure there are plenty of people who think it did etc. and articles showing how it spread from there, but Dover and Calais are some of the busiest ports in Europe, it ‘could’ have been brought in from the continent and because it’s easy to then blame Kent, case 0 was missed and went back and spread it around. As you say, they’re top of their game in sequencing but a lot of other countries aren’t even bothering .

    Where have I praised the U.K.? Other than say they are beating us to normal I haven’t praised them at all.

    That’s just how you perceive what I say because it isn’t the same ‘U.K. is inept’ narrative.

    I think the issue here is you think anyone who doesn’t bash them loves them, which isn’t the case, I’m just envious of their relative normality compared to ours.

    Would it sit better with you if I said ‘look at them with their relative normality, the f*cking useless, brexit voting, immigrant hating, colonising langers!!!’ 👍



  • Posts: 5,518 [Deleted User]


    How does the actions of a government “allow” a particular variant to form?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 25,668 ✭✭✭✭Timberrrrrrrr


    Yet you fail to mention China, you know, where this all originated!



  • Registered Users Posts: 382 ✭✭Unicorn Milk Latte


    There are hundreds of Sars-Cov-2 variants.

    The ones that become known to the wider public are the ones which become dominant.

    The only goal of viruses is to replicate. Being able to replicate faster is a genetic advantage, that will result in a variant becoming dominant, and replacing older variants.

    A comprehensive overview of Covid variants, and which variants are relevant in which countries, is available here:

    https://nextstrain.org/ncov/global



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,663 ✭✭✭beggars_bush


    Hey UK, our vaccination programme is ahead of yours!

    Fed up of hearing about their 'best in the world' vaccination programme or world beating etc



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 25,668 ✭✭✭✭Timberrrrrrrr


    I'm in a pub tonight, celebrating my friends birthday, no social distancing or masks, no one asking for vaccination certs oranything. Life's back to normal thank feck.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 31,143 ✭✭✭✭Lumen




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,797 ✭✭✭brickster69


    85 million doses now been handed out

    https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

    "if you get on the wrong train, get off at the nearest station, the longer it takes you to get off, the more expensive the return trip will be."



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 26,735 ✭✭✭✭Peregrinus



    Variants form by random mutation. Nobody controls this (except in so far as suppressing overall infection numbers decreases the opportunities for new variants to emerge - the fewer covid cases, the fewer covid variants).

    But we can do a lot to influence how readily newly-formed variants spread.

    There's a fairly strongly-held viewpoint amongst epidemiologists that removing all social restrictions at a time when about 50% of the population is vaccinated is pretty much the experiment you would design if you were seeking to maximise the chances of a vaccine-resistant virus becoming dominant. You've got a large unvaccinated population in which infection spreads easily, which maximises the opportunties for genetic variations to emerge, plus a large vaccinated population who are susceptible only to vaccine-resistant variants, which maximises the relative advantage that vaccine-resistant variants have over other variants.



  • Posts: 5,518 [Deleted User]


    which is completely the opposite scenario to when the Alpha variant evolved. That was at a time of low infections and zero vaccines.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,797 ✭✭✭brickster69


    "if you get on the wrong train, get off at the nearest station, the longer it takes you to get off, the more expensive the return trip will be."



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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,218 ✭✭✭snowcat


    Low infections. It was worse than Ebola when it started now that strand was slightly less worse than the cold.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,218 ✭✭✭snowcat


    I remember when vaccine aficinados rediculed me when i said the vaccine would last 6 months about 6 months ago. Pfizer are the winners here. Queue up for the boosters boys and the price will be going up.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 26,735 ✭✭✭✭Peregrinus


    I know. Nobody says that variants can't evolve and spread when there are low infections and zero vaccinations; just that you optimise the conditions for the development, spread and dominance of vaccine-resistant variants by removing infection control restrictions at a time when half the population is vaccinated and half is not.



  • Posts: 5,518 [Deleted User]


    How?

    Surely the optimum conditions by that logic, are when 90% of people are vaccinated and there are still a large number of infections, which means we will be a constant cycle of lockdowns for ever more.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 26,735 ✭✭✭✭Peregrinus


    The argument, as I understand it, is:

    (a) Having a large pool of unvaccinated people maximises the number of people who get infected. Since genetic variation occurs randomly, the more infected people there are the more variants will emerge. Many of these will be non-viable, or will be less well-adapted than the already prevalent variants; they won't survive or propagate. But it's the new variants that are more easily transmitted, or cause more severe disease, or both, that should worry us. And, the more variants that emerge, the greater the likelihood that a variant will emerge that possesses these characteristics, and that is resistant to the current vaccines.

    (b) Having a large pool of vaccinated people means that vaccine-resistant variants will enjoy a darwinian advantage - the pool of people who can (a) catch, and (b) transmit vaccine-resistant covid variants will (if the population is 50% vaccinated) be twice as large as the pool of people who can catch nonresistant variants . So resistant variants will tend to spread more quickly and more widely than the nonresistant variants.

    So, having 50% vaccinated and 50% unvaccinated is a lousy combination, and not the time at which to start dismantling infection control measures.

    If you get to a point where it's, say, 90% vaccinated and 10% not (and if you get to this point before vaccine-resistant variants are widespread) that's a much safer place to be. In this situation only vaccine-resistant variants are ever likely to spread because, if you have a nonresistant variant, 90% of the people you come in contact with will be immune to it. But vaccine-resistant variants are less likely to emerge (or will emerge less frequently) because, with 90% of the population vaccinated and vaccine-resistant variants not yet prevalent, the total number of infected people will be small, and as a result the rate at which new variants emerge will be greatly reduced. This doesn't mean that a vaccine-resistant variant won't arise by mutation, but fewer of them will arise, and at a slower pace, and it will be easier to focus attention and resources to develop treatments and new vaccines that are effective against them.

    Basically, on this view, you don't have enduring herd immunity until the great bulk of the population - well over 50% - are vaccinated with vaccines that are substantially effective against all endemic variants of the virus.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 971 ✭✭✭bob mcbob


    Ok interesting perspective however to reach the 90% (or even 80%) figure you essentially have to vaccinate children.

    To date the Covid risks for children are quite low - there are some but low. As we know there are also risks with vaccines.

    So do you believe children should be vaccinated?



  • Posts: 5,518 [Deleted User]


    I would have thought the whole theory falls down on the fact that the vaccines do not create 100% immunity and people therefore still catch the virus.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,797 ✭✭✭brickster69


    Looks like Friday's Freedom Day for Wales is still on track.


    "if you get on the wrong train, get off at the nearest station, the longer it takes you to get off, the more expensive the return trip will be."



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,085 ✭✭✭✭BonnieSituation




  • Registered Users Posts: 971 ✭✭✭bob mcbob


    Most restrictions in Scotland will be removed next week

    Face masks are still required indoors as now and need to record your details inside hospitality but that seems to be all that remains



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,797 ✭✭✭brickster69


    Tuesday is normally catch up day on the death side

    "if you get on the wrong train, get off at the nearest station, the longer it takes you to get off, the more expensive the return trip will be."



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,482 ✭✭✭AllForIt


    How do you mean ahead? If you mean % wise then that's not a fair comparison since their population is 13 times ours, so in real numbers they are way ahead of use. Not only that but they have lifted restrictions when it was thought risky to do so because of rising infections but weeks later it appears touch wood that has been a success and now we have the UK's experience to go on which is a benefit to us.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,482 ✭✭✭AllForIt


    ....and wouldn't you have to shut the boarders as well because a deadlier more transmissible virus could get in that way, and not open them until 90% of the global population is vaccinated.



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,831 ✭✭✭RobMc59


    Covid is probably here to stay with new variants emerging regularly.All we can hope is that the scientists can keep up with it.

    Even those amongst you who are sceptical of the UK strategy must admit that sooner or later you'll have to just get on with it.

    Post edited by RobMc59 on


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