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The Irish protocol.

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 27,564 ✭✭✭✭steddyeddy


    Hi D. I think you're reading too much of the Belfast Newsletter.

    Leo's not perfect but he certainly didn't hold up a bomb picture and claim this is what will happen if NI leaves the customs union. That's what I mean when I say the Belfast Newsletter aims to inflame an audience prone to believing sectarian fantasies.

    The headline of the aforementioned sectarian paper stated:

    Varadkar shows EU27 dinner guests border bomb horror picture - Brexit deadlock over Ireland backstop

    What actually happened is this:

    A spokesman for Mr Varadkar said that he held up a hard copy of the newspaper to show "how far we have come in 30 years, from violence to peace".

    So he was extolling the benefits of peace rather than the simplistic loyalist fairy tale of "this will happen if NI leaves the EU".



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,508 ✭✭✭KildareP


    (1) Varadkar (at the time) and now Martin will certainly have had input into the negotiation outcomes but blaming them, individuals who had no direct bearing on the NIP, equally or above your own PM who actually signed the NIP is ludicrous. Direct your anger at Westminster first and foremost, not Dublin.

    (2) This is the circular contradiction which simply can't be squared. You either want to be bound exclusively by British law or you don't. There is no half in, half out here. Now, if you want to reserve the right to selectively implement laws - no problem. But you then lose the ability to argue that to implement particular laws will distance you from the rest of the UK - your argument essentially will boil down to wanting to reserve the right to distance yourself from British law in order not to be distanced from Britain (my own head is hurting just writing that).

    Which leads to your repeated points about the GFA and cross community consent. Either the NIP and Brexit both require cross community or neither does. The NIP is a direct outcome of Brexit. You cannot demand consent for the later without demanding it for the former too. If the only way in which to deliver Brexit is with the NIP, then it is Brexit overall that has changed your standing in the UK, not the NIP specifically. It's not really something that can be interpreted in numerous ways.

    Finally, I am not suggesting that you lose any right to oppose the British government on anything you disagree with. Quite the opposite. Which is why I am still baffled that, in your mind, it's the Irish government at fault, it's the Irish government that have broken the GFA and it's the Irish government who are required to make the next move to deescalate matters.



  • Posts: 5,121 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Surely as Jacob Rees Mogg pointed out, it was the consent of the parliament in Westminster that is what matters, and it has approved the protocol.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 26,641 ✭✭✭✭Peregrinus


    (A) Do you think that would be problematic? Is it not pretty much what you did yourself earlier in this thread?

    (B) I think the reaction would be not so much "this is offensive" as "this is bewildering". If Johnson were to do this, the obvious response would be — pardon my French — "If you think the Irish Sea checks are so damaging, why the fûck did you insist on them? And, having got them, why did you act to intensify them? And, if you now think that the choices you made were disastrous, why are you still in office? When the UK has a PM whose representations we can take seriously, send him to us."

    If Donaldson were to do this, the reaction would again be bewilderment, followed by a shorter but equally pithy reply; "Why in God's name are you saying this to us?"

    On edit:

    Lookit, I think we can probably agree on all sides that Brexit has not been well managed or well implemented on the UK side.

    One of the recurring errors made by the UK was repeatedly rejecting what was offered or what had already been negotiated, while failing to suggest any alternative. We all remember the “Brady amendment” (though we would probably pay good money for a course of hypnotherapy that would enable us to forget it) but it was just one of the more egregious of the many examples of this phenomenon.

    It seems to me that the UK is still making this mistake, and at a time when its position is even weaker, because it is rejecting not just something which has been offered, or which has been negotiated, but something which has been agreed, signed, confirmed with a mandate secured in a general election, ratified by Parliament and enacted into UK domestic law. And they’re still not suggesting any alternative.

    This tactic failed, without exception, every single time that the UK tried it when matters were still on the table. It is delusional to imagine that it can succeed when the UK is already legally and politically committed to an agreed solution. People in NI who are unhappy about the NIP should be seriously worried - or maybe really, really angry - that the UK is addressing (or perhaps pretending to address) their concerns though tactics which cannot possibly succeed. 

    So I get that a combination of frustration and anxiety may lead people to suggest idiocies like showing EU leaders photographs of the Dublin bombings. It’s stupid, and useless, and counterproductive, but no more stupid and useless and counterproductive than what the UK government is actually doing. It achieves nothing beyond an expression of people’s fear and anger and sense of abandonment, but even expressing that is something.

    Is there a better way?  Possibly. But I suggest that one of the criteria for “better” has to be that it mustn’t depend on Johnson or Frost because, obviously, they can’t be depended on. The way forward is to forget about them and think about the position, interests, concerns, and perceptions of the EU.

    Right now, the EU has (1) a binding international treaty that isn’t their ideal, by any means, but that they can live with; (2) a broad international consensus that will back them in maintaining this treaty and deprecate the UK if it repudiates or violates it, or is seen to act in bad faith with respect to it; and (3) a strong political and economic strategic advantage which will enable it to apply effective pressure to the UK if the UK does repudiate or violate the treaty. All in all, it’s a fairly sweet position which means that the EU has no real need to accede to UK requests for revision. And it has a powerful reason not to accede, since the UK isn’t proposing - and seems wildly unlikely to propose - any alternative which would be better calculated to square the circle of not hardening the Irish border and at the same time protecting the integrity of the Single Market.

    Hang on to that last point, because that’s the key to the thing.

    Matters will change if the forthcoming Assembly elections return an anti-NIP majority. Then, the EU knows that the NIP has a limited shelf-life; it’s likely to be voted down in 2024 and, if that happens, negotiations on a replacement will commence. 

    So, it seems to me, those in NI who oppose the protocol want to achieve two things. First, they want an anti-NIP majority in the 2022 elections. Secondly, they want a proposal that can be advanced in the post-2024 negotiations that will satisfy them, but that also stands some chance of being acceptable to the EU, given the criteria I have just mentioned.

    As regards getting an anti-NIP majority, standing on a platform of replacing the NIP but not saying with what will just perpetuate the Brexiter error. The hardline loyalist vote has been in long-term decline, and nobody else will be won over by such a platform. It seems unlikely that an majority for replacing it can be won simply by denouncing it and banging the Lambeg drums. It will be necessary to win over moderates.

    As regards coming up with a viable alternative, clearly HMG under Johnson isn’t going to do this, so they’ll have to do it themselves. 

    And they kill two birds with one stone, I think, if they can come up with a proposal which (a) avoids any hardening of the Irish border; (b) protects the integrity of the Single Market; and (c) is kinder to NI than the NIP currently is. 

    A tall order, you may say, but it’s the key to success. Moderate voters and/or moderate parties might be persuaded to sign up to support such a proposal, and that might create a majority in the Assembly for replacement of the NIP with the alternative. In the post-2024 negotiations, the EU should be open to a proposal which combines all these features. Then, all you’d have to do is to get the British government onside. And, of course, post-2024, that may not be the Tories. Or it may be the Tories, but under somebody competent and credible. At any rate, it might be someone that takes NI wishes and interests seriously, and not as something to be traded away in order to advance the hard Brexit project.

    A tall order, you may feel. But it seems to me a much more productive approach than waving around photographs of the Dublin and Monaghan bombings in an attempt to blame the EU for the failings of the British government.

    Post edited by Peregrinus on


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 69,741 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    Your politicians have played the victim for decades downcow. YOU have played the only victim game for long enough here.

    You are playing 'victim' again because a Leader (as he should btw) sought to protect his own jurisdiction.


    Your real problem is that you and your leaders no longer have a veto.

    That is the issue, you know it, I know it, Boris knows it and the rest of the EU know it.

    You will get used to equality if you give it a chance.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,510 ✭✭✭Dubh Geannain


    The DUP raised the spectre of violence after Brexit happened. More as a way of goading those who don't take their seats in Westminster but they raised it nonetheless. They were the ones that first introduced its prospect to the whole Brexit debacle. Fair play to Leo (whom I don't particularly like) for acknowledging the point that the DUP raised. Another case of them inadvertently undermining their cause.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 69,741 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    FFs Unionists were caught inventing terror threats to try and get their way...UNIONIST Ministers in the Executive and they are having a 'victimhood' huff about somebody worried about the return to violence. It's bizarre.

    Every single Unionist with a social media or mainstream media platform plays this 'we are the main victims' card in all of what happened in NI and are aided and abetted by partitionists (for their singular bitter political ends)



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 27,564 ✭✭✭✭steddyeddy


    Why would Boris negotiate a deal involving sea checks and then show pictures to EU officials stating this will happen if sea checks are introduced. Do you not think he'd look a bit stupid?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 69,741 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    The only violence likely to happen over a sea border is Jamie Bryson falling off his wheelie bin. It should be quite clear to everybody now there is no appetite for large scale protest over the sea border, much less violence likely to destabilise.

    downcow (who thought destabilising protest in Dublin would happen) knows it, Dublin knows it, Westminster knows it and the rest of the EU knows it.

    They were marched up to the top of a hill and straight back down AGAIN. Unionism needs it's leaders to accept their place in the 'union' and society in general. The UUP are getting there slowly but the attacks on the a pragmatist like Ian Marshall need to stop.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,629 ✭✭✭Fionn1952


    Your edit reads like a very strong summation of the situation to me.

    As much as I strongly favour the NI Protocol over any of the alternatives the British government presented during negotiations, like the vast majority I'm not irrationally tied to it. If an alternative was suggested that wasn't just, 'cake, more cake and a Unionist veto', I'd be easily convinced, as I'm sure the vast majority of moderately minded people would be. There's your anti NIP vote sorted for 2024 alright.

    Ultimately I haven't seen a single suggestion that amounts to more than British exceptionalism, just trust us or magic technology solutions that just aren't feasible. Instead of suggesting solutions, those so vocally opposed to the NI Protocol seem to be favouring moaning, threatening and begging the foreign government they so strongly oppose having any say in NI to fix it for them. Until that changes, I'm happy to acknowledge that the NIP isn't perfect, but it beats the alternatives, unless the UK is willing to soften its own cough a bit as a whole.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 27,564 ✭✭✭✭steddyeddy


    I actually feel sorry for unionists. They're brainwashed by their leaders into thinking the Irish in the Republic are responsible for all of their woes due to Brexit. All the while in mainland Britain polls show that the majority of people there care little about the impact of the protocol on Northern Ireland. From the New statesman.

    A majority of British voters do not feel connected to the people of Northern Ireland or only feel a little connected, according to exclusive polling conducted by Redfield & Wilton Strategies for the New Statesman*.

    A plurality of 34 per cent do not feel connected to the people of Northern Ireland at all, 27 per cent only feel a little connected, 29 per cent feel moderately connected and only 10 per cent feel very connected.

    A minority of British voters say they follow events in Northern Ireland a great deal or quite a lot, with only 8 per cent saying they follow them a great deal, 19 per cent quite a lot, 42 per cent to some extent, and 30 per cent do not follow events in Northern Ireland at all.

    These results provide some context for the lack of uproar among the British public at Boris Johnson’s decision to put a trade border down the Irish Sea as part of his Brexit deal – betraying the Democratic Unionist Party and stoking unionist dissent.

    The polling also reflects a potential complacency in the governing party over what the Irish Sea border means for the integrity of the Union. A stark poll published in 2019 found that Conservative Party members were willing to sacrifice Northern Ireland’s position in the United Kingdom to achieve Brexit, reflecting how far the party officially named the “Conservative and Unionist Party” has departed from its unionist stance.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 52,146 ✭✭✭✭tayto lover


    But die-hard Unionists don’t want to admit that. It goes against their grain. They want to blame somebody else instead, usually the Irish Government.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,713 ✭✭✭✭maccored


    when people say 'brits out' they are referring to the army. sorry if that conflicts with the unionist 'they're all out to get me' mindset



  • Registered Users Posts: 11,629 ✭✭✭✭downcow


    The denials of republicans of their sectarianism never ceases to amaze me.

    you ask if I have an up to date example.

    hows this pic I took on the way to work this morning.

    this is the home of the last remaining Protestant home in the centre of Castlewellan.

    it is lived in only by a 97 year old protestant gentleman and his disabled daughter.

    the police are outside this morning as his home was attacked again last night and a window broke.

    he is attacked at least twice a year for the last 40+ years.

    you will see he has done what he can ie grills on windows and camera poking out upstairs window.

    his only crime in the eyes of local republicans is his religious background

    I name the my town and post a photo as I am sure there are some on here can verify.

    this is today and everyday life for the British community in and around this republican Ira controlled village.

    is that recent enough?

    https://postimg.cc/ctB5bCS6



  • Registered Users Posts: 11,629 ✭✭✭✭downcow


    It’s very simple. The brexit referendum was an all-Uk referendum of the people. That’s simple

    the nip was something imposed in Northern Ireland by politicians negotiations. That’s simple



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 69,741 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    'Imposed'?


    How is negotiating and signing an agreement and trumpeting that as a 'great' 'oven ready' deal in the slightest way 'imposed'?



  • Registered Users Posts: 23,876 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    The British govt with the support of the British public as a result of the all UK vote agreed to the protocol.

    They did that because they don't care about NI.



  • Moderators, Politics Moderators Posts: 40,204 Mod ✭✭✭✭Seth Brundle


    ...but Brexit was imposed on the people of NI given that they voted against it. You can't say one is an imposition and not the other.

    As for the politicians part of your claim, many of these lied their way into winning. Others used underhanded means of financing themselves and promoting their view (which was against the wishes of their electorate) in a different constituient country. Also, the politicians didn't need to listen to the electorate as it was an advisory referendum. Had they been responsible then they would have a) performed the referendum in a sensible manner rather than as a binary question and b) made sure that whatever was on offer was properly thought through and not done in a completely cac-handed manner. Most of the politicians in GB (& some in NI) absolutely and utterly failed the people they represent.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,508 ✭✭✭KildareP


    If the NIP was imposed upon Northern Ireland, then so too was Brexit.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 69,741 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    There is nothing in the Protocol for people in Ireland to fear.

    They did what they did because they don't care about belligerent Unionists. Who have been unable to mount even sustainable protest against it, never mind the threatened violence.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 11,629 ✭✭✭✭downcow




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,508 ✭✭✭KildareP


    When did NI grant consent for Brexit?

    Because if you want to continue to argue that the NIP was pushed through without the consent of NI, then you are objecting to the very validity of Brexit itself.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 69,741 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    You abdicate that right when you hitch your wagon to the 'union'.

    Please listen to what Rees Mogg told one of your MPs.


    Anyone with an ounce of understanding of the system you are in have gotten it at this stage.



  • Posts: 5,121 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    No community was involved in negotiations.

    The UK government following from the all-UK referendum negotiated on behalf of the UK.

    A poor outcome as perceived by Unionists was delivered by the UK and no one else.



  • Registered Users Posts: 11,629 ✭✭✭✭downcow


    keep goading if you like Francie. Will you accept unionist tactics were effective if we get the bad bits of the protocol removed?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,627 ✭✭✭Dazler97


    Theres no talking to you is there, I just give up now I really do



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,627 ✭✭✭Dazler97




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,627 ✭✭✭Dazler97




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,425 ✭✭✭PokeHerKing


    The bad bits... yeah unionists are going to get what the tory government couldn't by whinging about sausages.

    If yous get nout will you close your boards account?



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,629 ✭✭✭Fionn1952


    Surely this would depend if this is achieved through easements already existing within the Protocol (as has been repeatedly pointed out to you), or if not, what the UK and the EU relatively give up to secure these changes. If the EU was to bend with no reciprocal changes on the UK side and give you all the cake you want, you'd be correct.

    I suspect the first of those will happen, with the Tories and their usual papers crowing about it as a victory, hoping that enough of the population don't bother actually reading the legal document to catch them out.



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