Australian Response

It looks like Australia has gone into perpetual lockdown. No hope in hell they'll be out of it.

@ceadaoin. and @gral6 what is this bizarre obsession you guys have with painting Australia like it’s some sort of prison camp hellhole? It’s funny to read but it’s very odd

The long-term strategy is, and always has been, vaccination. This has not been well-implemented, but that doesn't change the fact that it is the long-term strategy.

Lockdowns, social restrictions and travel restrictions are an interim strategy until vaccination is achieved. This is true for pretty much all countries, but Australia has taken the approach of using lockdown and other restrictions with a view to keeping covid infection as close to zero as possible, while other countries have had less ambitious goals.

The Australian strategy has been strikingly successful. Not only has Australia had much lower covid infection and death rates than other countries, but to date it has achieved that with considerably less in the way of social and personal restrictions, and at a markedly lower economic cost, than countries that have taken the less ambitious approach.

Obviously, the happy outcome for Australia has also been supported by factors like geographical isolation that are not replicated in other countries. I am not suggesting that, if other countries had mirrored Australia's policy on social and travel restrictions, they would have achieved the same outcomes. But, for a country situated as Australia is, those policies have worked very well. They were clearly the right policies for Australia to adopt.

There is much to criticise in what Australia has done - most obviously, in relation to the rollout of vaccination. But I am frankly bewildered at people who ignore this, but seem to have a bizarre obsession with attacking Australia in relation to things that Australia has plainly got right.

No, you're still confusing the two issues. Australia isn't facing intermittent lockdowns, etc, because of its zero covid strategy; it's facing intermittent lockdowns because of its poor progress with vaccination. Not pursuing zero covid wouldn't have made vaccination go any faster; it would have just meant more people being infected, more people dying, more or longer lockdowns and a greater economic hit over the past months. And that's still true. Abandoning zero covid now still won't make vaccination go any faster; it will just mean more people getting sick and dying, more or longer lockdowns and a bigger economic hit over the coming months.

You say we're facing a different situation now but, really, we're not. Other countries are facing a different situation because they have achieved high rates of vaccination. We haven't, which means we're still basically in the situation we were in a year ago. And the strategies which were the right strategies for that situation then (because, as you say, of our relative isolation) are still the right strategies for the same situation now (because our relative isolation hasn't changed).

If anything has changed, its the arrival of the delta variant. But that's not a change which would make you ease up on lockdowns and social restrictions; quite the opposite. If the delta virus means that a zero covid strategy now involves a more frequent of lockdowns than were involved a year a go, it also means that not pursuing a zero covid strategy involves a longer lockdowns, more infections and deaths and a higher economic cost it would have involved a year ago. That's not much of an argument for abandoning zero covid, is it?

It's not a question of the population being OK with actual normality not returning until some time next year. Whether the population is OK with it or not, actual normality will not return until some time next year. The choice is about what happens in the meantime; we can choose earlier and more frequent lockdowns, fewer infections, fewer deaths and lower economic cost, or later and longer lockdowns, more infections, more deaths and higher economic cost. It's an unpleasant choice to face, but not a difficult one to make.

And, by and large, people see this; criticism and political dissatisfaction is not directed at the earlier-and-more-frequent lockdown strategy so much as at the poor vaccination strategy.

Yeah, but Australia doesn't have high rates of vaccination. Given that, zero covid remains the optimal strategy for managing the risk until vaccination is achieved. The factors which made it the optimal strategy a year ago are all still in place, and if anything are intensified by the arrival of the Delta variant.

This article about China's zero Covid policy is interesting. Obviously I am not directly comparing China with Australia - there are many, many, many differences. There are also some similarities as the strategies are the same

Beijing’s thinking, according to experts, was to keep new infections to as low as possible while rolling out its nationwide mass vaccination programme, which Reuters calculated should have covered about 61.1% of the population. 

However, “China’s ‘zero-tolerance’ policy is seeing its diminishing return, and the cost of implementing it is becoming higher and higher,” said Huang Yanzhong, a prominent Chinese public health expert at the Council on Foreign Relations in New York.

The interesting question for me is how do Governments that have been successful in defending their people thru zero Covid open up because at that point Covid will surge.

If it is a disaster, then in Australia it means the end of the Morrison Government.

If it is a disaster, In China where Xi has used the Covid response to highlight the superiority of the Chinese system then what happens

Awful. Permission is needed to return into your country. What have they done to Australia?

I'm heading there in October, my partner (we're not married) is Australian and we're heading over for a wedding.Im not looking forward to quarantine but it was fairly easy to get permission to enter,I'm not anticipating any issues coming back either.

You have not got there yet. Hope, wedding does not take place in Sydney

They've changed it to stop people coming and going from Australia. If you don't normally live in Australia, you can leave, but that's not going to wash if you've been back to Australia multiple times a year visiting. You can move back permanently, or stay overseas until the borders fully open.

That’s a step too fr IMO

It is incredibly frustrating reading some of the replies here, all from people who dont even live in Australia.

The vast vast majority of the population is tolerant of the status quo. Yup, its not ideal but the situation isnt ideal either.

The premier of WA said recently one bloke had been through hotel quarantine 6 times in the last 18 months, thats taking the places of people who have genuinely been stranded abroad.

Theres a bloke i know who has gone back to the UK with his mrs and kid, they applied for the approval to leave and lied on the form saying that one of the grandparents was dying and wanted to see the grandkid before they died. Its **** twats like this that bring covid back into the country.

I suppose it all depends on one's definition of "The Vast Majority",or indeed the vast majority of whomever you are thinking of. The Status Quo may well be fine & Jim Dandy if you are one of those lucky to be a Bondi resident.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-australia-57952516

It all hinges on how long the Australian Government can impose an isolationist policy in a Globalist economy....Unchartered waters,which could well see China navigating further into the murky Australian sea......but hey !......it's a deadly Pandemic.....innit ?

Meantime it appears that a tiny minority (?) of Australia's inhabitants are not quite so tolerant of Status Quo,Australian Style ?

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-australia-57952516

Thank you Perengrinus. You had the patience to post along the lines of what i was thinking

Our premier had an 88% approval rating coming up to the last election, gee he must be unpopular with the masses. And Mark McGowan has been the most trigger happy when it comes to snap lockdowns