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The UK response - Part II - read OP

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 26,539 ✭✭✭✭Peregrinus


    It doesn't really matter greatly whether natural immunity or vaccine-induced immunity is stronger; all that matters is whether either is sufficiently strong to provide a foundation for herd immunity.

    If - as seems likely - they both are, then the question becomes "which has the greater morbidity?" Here, the vaccines are a clear winner. The process of acquiring immunity by vaccination has a mortality rate of 8.2 per million (in the United States, using predominantly Moderna and Pfizer); in the same country, the process of acquiring immunity by getting covid infection has a mortality rate of c. 17,000 per millon. So that's a no-brainer; however effective it was, we would never even licence a vaccine with such a mortality rate, never mind prefer it to the vaccine with a mortality rate of 8.2 per million.

    The figures may differ in other countries where different vaccines are used and/or where standards of medical care differ, but a disparity this size is not going to be overcome by variations of that kind.



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    We don’t actually know the true mortality rate of getting Covid. Unless we’re to record and compare how many people died within 28 days of vaccination, I suppose.



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Hit some phone button too early! Meant to ask if that’s what the 8.2 reflects, and how we can be sure that the recorded Covid positives are a reflection of the infection rate, given mild/asymptomatic but immunity-inducing cases seem to be somewhat common based on UK data.



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,727 ✭✭✭brickster69


    "if you get on the wrong train, get off at the nearest station, the longer it takes you to get off, the more expensive the return trip will be."



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 26,539 ✭✭✭✭Peregrinus


    You can argue about the methods used for ascribing death to prior Covid infection, but the disparity between the Covid and vaccine figures is orders or magnitude - no amount of refining the definitions or data collection methods is going to change the overall picture - getting Covid is, on average, much, much more dangerous than getting the vaccine.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 5,727 ✭✭✭brickster69


    "if you get on the wrong train, get off at the nearest station, the longer it takes you to get off, the more expensive the return trip will be."



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    This is the sort of information that is very useful in helping the remaining vaccine hesitant (as opposed to anti-vax, who will likely never be persuaded) to make their decision. But “it just is and I can’t point you to the data” is not going to cut it, particularly consider the number of them that are highly educated and seeking reassurance through precisely the data you say are irrelevant.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 26,539 ✭✭✭✭Peregrinus



    I did point to the data; I quoted exact figures. What I suggest was not relevant was your quibble about how the figures are measured. This is irrelevant to the overall picture because the disparity is so great that, even if you refine and improve the data collection methods, there is no possiblity that the overall picture will be reversed. On the figures quoted, getting Covid is more than 2,000 times more dangerous than getting vaccinated. Even if you could show that 90% of reported Covid deaths were, in fact, not due to Covid, getting Covid would still be 200 time more dangerous than getting vaccinated. If you could show that the true Covid death toll was only 1% of what is claimed, getting Covid would still be 20 times more dangerous than getting vaccinated. If the true Covid death toll were only 0.1% of what is reported, it would still be much safer to get vaccinated than to get Covid.

    So, yeah; queries about how Covid death statistics are reported really are irrelevant to this point. However you count Covid deaths, Covid is much, much more dangerous than vaccination.

    Post edited by Peregrinus on


  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    But where did you get the “died within 28 days of being vaccinated” figure from for comparison?



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    remembering, of course, that 120million of those doses on order aren't actually finished testing yet.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 26,539 ✭✭✭✭Peregrinus


    I didn't say it was as "died within 28 days of being vaccinated" figure; you said that.

    I googled the Covid fatality rate per million cases for the US, and the vaccine fatality rate per million cases for the US. I picked the US because they've had both lots of Covid and lots of vaccination and because they are good at collating and publishing data, so I reckoned both figures would be available, and would be based on large datasets. And, gee, I was right.



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,727 ✭✭✭brickster69


    Today's figures from UK

    "if you get on the wrong train, get off at the nearest station, the longer it takes you to get off, the more expensive the return trip will be."



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,224 ✭✭✭✭MadYaker


    Yikes. When I was in the debating soc in secondary school I'm glad I never came up against you haha, are you a lawyer? You should be.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 26,539 ✭✭✭✭Peregrinus


    What's your point? Do you have better figures than I do? Post 'em, so.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,085 ✭✭✭✭BonnieSituation


    I read it as a complement P



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 26,539 ✭✭✭✭Peregrinus


    Oh. Well, if it was, I apologise to Madyaker for my rude and ungracious response. 😕



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,727 ✭✭✭brickster69


    "if you get on the wrong train, get off at the nearest station, the longer it takes you to get off, the more expensive the return trip will be."



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,709 ✭✭✭cloudatlas


    My work place are insisting on the hybrid work model but are ignoring that the government has stated 'where this is possible and appropriate'. I don't need to be physically in my office but they are determined to turn a blind eye to the 'appropriate'.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,383 ✭✭✭S.M.B.


    My company is formally returning to a hybrid model too with an informal arrangement amongst certain areas of the business that is more in line with the "appropriate" government advice. There is a lot dissatisfied with the informal nature of the arrangement as a newly hired director/manager with a disliking for WFH could all of a sudden impose the hybrid model on their team.



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Right, but you’re comparing anyone who died within 28 days of getting Covid with anyone who’s been confirmed to have died as a confirmed direct result of a vaccination, which is not a true comparison. There are plenty of examples of when dying after a positive Covid result and dying of Covid are very clearly not the same thing. So the true comparison would be death within 28 days of Covid+ or within 28 days of vaccination.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 26,539 ✭✭✭✭Peregrinus


    You're asserting — again — that the Covid death rate that I quote is in fact a rate for people who die within 28 days of a Covid diagnosis.

    Firstly, why do you believe that this is the case?

    Secondly, assuming that this is the case, for that to make a relevant difference to the question of which is the more risky way to acquire immunity, the "true" covid death rate would have to be less than 0.05% of the "within 28 days" death rate; which is to say, for every 2,000 people reported as having died of Covid, only 1 actually did. Do you think there is any possibility at all that the "true" Covid death rate is that low?



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 26,539 ✭✭✭✭Peregrinus


    From careless typing. It should be 0.5%. And it's a round figure; if we're been excessively accurate, it would be 0.4824%. (8.2 per million is 0.4824% of 17,000 per million.)

    Any answer to the questions I asked?



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,727 ✭✭✭brickster69


    "if you get on the wrong train, get off at the nearest station, the longer it takes you to get off, the more expensive the return trip will be."



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,085 ✭✭✭✭BonnieSituation


    Which bit is bad?



  • Registered Users Posts: 23,801 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    That's the highest number of deaths since March.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,085 ✭✭✭✭BonnieSituation


    Cheers. Nice to have context with these daily data dumps from himself.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,632 ✭✭✭✭bodhrandude


    Maybe they going to have to tell people to stop dying.

    If you want to get into it, you got to get out of it. (Hawkwind 1982)



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 24,103 Mod ✭✭✭✭robinph


    There will be more people who died crossing the road within 28 days of having got a vaccination than there will have been deaths caused by the vaccination. About 5 road deaths per days in the UK, or 1800 per year.


    Even the crazy anti vax stickers I've seen appearing on the lampposts around my local GP surgery/ vaccination centre quoting the misrepresentation of the yellow card reported stats are not trying to claim that many deaths from the vaccines.



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  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Right, but that could also apply to people who died within 28 days of having covid, particularly since we know that asymptomatic infection is possible and that people can get mild or asymptomatic covid, recover, and not prove seropositive for antibodies. We're not testing T-cell immunity so we have no real idea of how many people already have immunity (or have been infected).

    My point in any case is that comparing people who died within 28 days of a detected covid infection with people who died from a medically-confirmed, vaccine-induced injury, is not a true comparison.



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