How much is this all going to cost and who will pay for it ?

KyussB wrote: »

That'd be chasing yield with a pot of money that is not being constantly topped up by QE, though.

It's encouraging to see PUP numbers etc. dropping. Indicates that we are heading in the right direction.

But that figure of 728,748 (including those availing of EWSS) is very scary. At some point the EWSS will have to be wound down and the potential fallout doesn't bear thinking about.

Sorry if I come across as a 'doom and gloomer' but it's a reality that will have to be faced.

We went for grub yesterday in the local hotel. The room was empty at one stage only for us and a clatter of staff, it'd usually be hopping. I couldn't help but think that only for the government more or less paying their wages a lot of the staff wouldn't have been there.

between PUP and EWSS, more than 1 billion

So what's the bill for all this?

A friend's mother went off for the PCR test, on leaving the centre she was given 700 masks to bring with her. Surely some mistake he says, it's probably 70.

His girlfriend goes for a PCR two days later and arrives home with 700 masks as well! Sure why not throw in a e100 one for all voucher while they're at it!

I suspect the only reason insolvencies are lower is because all the insolvency practitioners themselves (as well as the commercial courts) have been operating at substantially reduced capacity. Don't think they were operating at all between March 2020 and July 2021.

With everything supposedly open, it is now time for the big arguments about unpaid rents/rates/etc. Irish gov't handouts to business (unlike individuals) were mostly loans rather than handout, so someone has to take the hit of insolvency.

Latest economic indicators very good. With the huge surplus and the NTMA cancelling its debt auction we are probably well clear of the impending disaster that COVID threatened but never delivered.

The first is temporary and not of our doing and the likelihood and depth of the second is speculative.

Unemployment is usually at its lowest right before recession.

The last time we hit these numbers was 2000 and we didn't have a recession, but that was largely down to the housing madness. A recession can be anything from 2008 to two negative 0.1 quarters.

2000 is an outlier in that regard for sure. Unemployment in Ireland largely tracks that of UK, which also avoided the recession of 2000. It is also at the lowest level since 1975 now there. Only yesterday however they announced that the economy will step into a 15 month of recession with living standards that will deteriorate by 5%.

Is the fact that Ireland avoided the bust of 2000 down to the strength of its own economy, or simply because UK avoided it and Ireland as a closely coupled economy went along with it?

Unemployment is by no means the indicator of recession on its own and with low inflation is in fact a very desirable for any economy. However we have a very high inflation which drives the prices of products and services up, and consequently impedes growth and oftentimes leads to recession.

Next few months will tell were we stand.

Bilateral trade figures in both cases are very similar ~ 70bn. How is it closer to US?

It may as well be true today that we are closer to US, but in 2000 we weren’t as the dotcom bubble bust made no impact here.

in any case I’m not sure which is worse at this point. They are predicting a serious recession in US too, as the money printing is to end.

Yup. Those wage increases that are to prevent employees from hoping jobs are purely inflationary and have nothing to do with productivity gains.

With the supply chain not expected to improve before the first half of 2024 how do you see keeping inflation in check and bringing it down to reasonable level in the meantime?

I know all that, but that is not an answer to my question. We have now inflation at 9% and people spending is not slowing down. What do we do?

There are two elements to this. The pandemic stimulus package for the furloughed and working from home that still continues today ensured that demand came back and continues strong, and in some cases people have more disposable income now than before the pandemic. The sentiment is also such that seeing rising prices people spend now rather than wait as they expect that goods will only more expensive. That would have been all fine if it wasn’t for a supply chain that remains and will remain hampered for some time in the future.