Covid 19 Part XXXV-956,720 ROI (5,952 deaths) 452,946 NI (3,002 deaths) (08/01) Read OP

It's accepted and capacity in our health system is just about built in gor it.

Problem with covid for most health services, which are usually pretty close to breaking point is its additional and not currently factored into their bau. It'll be a while before it is imo and that's when it'll be out of sight out of mind.

Influenza is considerably less transmissible than covid. A single winter of people engaging in basic preventative measures completely eliminated it.

It will come back because it has reservoirs in animal populations. But if the 'flu was as transmissible as Covid, you can bet your ass we'd be freaking out about the old people.

This is for the rapid tests which they have all over Germany (literally on street corners).

We never even had these in the first place so I don't know how we are supposed to charge people.

That's not what was being discussed though. We know who is more vulnerable from COVID, we have vaccines (amazing ones at that), yet it seems to be treated like some standalone disease that we know nothing about. Therapeutics will no doubt improve as time goes by and vaccines will be tweeked to make them even better.

It is more transmissible and has hit the older population hard, thankfully it has a negligible effect on young children which is about the only good thing you can say about this virus.

Unfortunately Seamus, we have zero idea whether this will be a good or bad flu session. The indications would suggest it may not be an issue as we will have masks, SD, limited capacity, WFH, and a raft of measures in place over this winter but who knows.

Business as usual

Yes. However, flu is a seasonal thing, typically only affecting 3 months of the year. The crowds in Croke Park for the All Ireland or Electric Picnic have little or no relavance to the transmission of flu. In the absence of a novel flu virus flu is much more manageable than Covid.

No, that's not what I said at all. I was very clear about what I was referring to. We know the groups most at risk and we have vaccines (which indicates a fairly good understand of the virus IMO).

We do have this though. That's not to say that hospital's and nursing homes shouldn't have measures in place but we are reaching the point where the need for such strict restrictions on the general public are not required.

Thanks for that.

There is an alternative possibility however that, come mid-September, we'll simply carry on being concerned about rising cases, new variants arising in various parts of the world and continue with social distancing, restrictions of one sort or another indefinitely.

At least there is a rough timescale (mid-September) here after which we can know something's wrong with the way we're thinking about the virus.

I know we're all trying to do our best, but I think the same people predicting an end to compulsory restrictions will be back justifying them if that end fails to materialise.

Whats the situation with these statutory powers ? I keep hearing they expire in November . Can they not just be extended like what was already done ?

Theoretically they can be extended by 3 months, but they're emergency powers. In effect, it only remains constitutional to extend them so long as there continues to be an emergency. One could envision some flimsy grounds on which they might justify it in November, but not a chance in February.

In reality, political pressure is what will force them to be allowed to lapse. In November there would be someone banging on the door of the supreme court five minutes after the powers were extended. And for the supreme court to strike the powers down would be politically devastating. A massive gamble for any government. That's not to even address the pressure they would face within their own parties. All it would take is 5 TDs to defy the party whip and the whole thing comes crashing down.

Of course it'll all be whipped us a "will they-won't they" thing for weeks. Anyone with any savvy will see this as the most opportune time to strike and accuse the government of totalitarianism before they've even said whether or not they want to extend the powers.

We're already gearing up for some sort of extension of the legislation in our heads so that if it is extended we can say that we never ruled it out as a possibility when challenged.