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Brexit discussion thread XIV (Please read OP before posting)

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  • Registered Users Posts: 22,422 ✭✭✭✭Akrasia


    In an ironic twist to the ‘boiled frog’ conspiracy theorists who are almost entirely of the pro Brexit persuasion, the temporary emergency powers introduced to manage massive tailbacks in Kent are being made permanent

    its an admission that the ‘short term disruption’ during a transition period after Brexit is now going to be the long term normal

    the Tories never had any intention of resolving these problems and instead are just going to pretend there is no problem while quietly enacting the legal framework for permanent congestion at the border



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,831 ✭✭✭RobMc59


    According to politico,Norway and the EU have fallen out over fishing in Norwegian waters.Norway is complaining about the EU unilaterally giving itself a larger quota.

    https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-norway-arctic-fishing-post-brexit-rights/



  • Registered Users Posts: 15,636 ✭✭✭✭Leroy42


    Rob, you need to stop taking such ridiculous headlines type meaning from every story. They have not 'fallen out', they have a disagreement. They will work together to resolve it. If the EU has unilaterally given itself a larger quota, then the agreement will be reviewed and they either will have to revert back to previous or a solution will be found.



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,831 ✭✭✭RobMc59


    If you read the article it states as a result of brexit the EU unilaterally increased its quota in Norwegian waters which Norway is disputing.



  • Registered Users Posts: 15,636 ✭✭✭✭Leroy42


    Another negative of Brexit. Bad enough the UK wanted to screw themselves over, but the amount of hassle they have caused everyone else is awful.

    And all this because essentially the UK is having a mid life crisis.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 24,384 ✭✭✭✭lawred2


    ah here - Brexit can't be blamed for everything.

    Unilateral decisions are something that the many incarnations of this thread has taken great umbrage with. Takes a bit of a twist to blame Brexit for that particular one.



  • Registered Users Posts: 15,636 ✭✭✭✭Leroy42


    I'm not blaming Brexit, Rob was trying to shoehorn this into being an outcome of Brexit. I was merely stating that if his assertion was right, then it highlighted, yet again, that Brexit is nothing but a mess.



  • Registered Users Posts: 18,657 ✭✭✭✭Strazdas


    "As a result of Brexit" ; the thing throws up lots of bad results. You'd be very hard pushed to identify even one positive outcome from it.



  • Registered Users Posts: 12 Seamus Ó Dubhghaill


    You wait till the supermarket shelves are empty,fruit and veg is rotting in the fields because there are no migrants to pick them and companies start closing down because they can't trade effectively with Europe.Then things will get seriously crazy across the water.



  • Registered Users Posts: 15,636 ✭✭✭✭Leroy42


    As with the extension (being made permanent) of the emergency tailbacks procedures, the government will do everything it can be resolve these issues. That it will costs millions, add extra layers of red tape and delays, isn't the point. They need to avoid pictures of empty shelves. The fact people are now forced to pay higher prices is not the governments problem (as they will see it).

    When I say everything, I don't mean actually doing the very things that would resolve it like rejoining the SM/CU or aligning standards. But things like closing lanes to only trucks, giving Tesco priority checks at customs etc.

    So, we will probably see the army being drafted in to help with distribution, and people will cheer that the mighty UK army is coming to the rescue. Plenty of memes about the plucky UK standing up against a foreign tyrant, positive messages about the blitz etc. All the while ordinary people are left to struggle. And if people start to complain they will be accused of not believing in Britain, or not putting in the effort.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 12 Seamus Ó Dubhghaill


    So what will change ? Starmer is clearly never going to be PM and it's unlikely that he'll be removed as Labour leader anytime soon.The UK has some of the worst Covid death figures anywhere in the world.Biden is clearly now going to give the Brits any help with the NI protocol.Where do you see the change happening ?



  • Registered Users Posts: 18,657 ✭✭✭✭Strazdas


    I've seen repeated suggestions though that the Army will be in no position whatsoever to solve the mounting delivery / supplies crisis. There are nowhere near enough trained Army drivers to meet demand, nor do they have access to things like refrigerated vehicles. If genuine food shortages were to kick off, then the country would be in big trouble. They might just be able to supply a single large town or city, but not the entire UK.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,102 ✭✭✭The Raging Bile Duct


    I've read the British Army has potentially 2,000 HGV drivers - 40% of those are with the Territorial Army. There's no way they can cover the shortfall of 100,000 drivers that the Road Haulage Association estimates.



  • Registered Users Posts: 28,484 ✭✭✭✭looksee


    Not only do they not have refrigerated vehicles, they have lorries that will only hold about a quarter of what a commercial artic would, and don't have the handling machinery to get stuff on and off the vehicles. They cannot and will not (for insurance and policy reasons) not use 'borrowed' commercial vehicles, so unless the government is prepared to provide the army with a fleet of their own artics, which is not likely to happen, that figure of 2000 equates to about 500 in real terms.



  • Registered Users Posts: 15,636 ✭✭✭✭Leroy42


    All of that is true, and there is no doubt that the Army cannot, and never should even be being talked about, as a solution.

    But you are looking at this through a rational lens. You need to see it through the Brexiteers POV. It doesn't matter whether it actually works, the PR spin, pics in the paper, blitz spirit, Dunkirk, etc etc will be wheeled out. Some companies won't suffer too badly, some items will remain easy to get and both of those will be used to claim that the fault lies with the supplier, retailer, customer and EU rather than Brexit.

    Look at the recent example of the roaming charges. It was first argued that it was immaterial, then anybody that can afford to go away won't mind paying, that most people don't use their phones on holiday, and then onto that the companies will soon revert back since the customer has the power. At no point do they ever acknowledge that Brexit is the core reason why the companies can even consider it.

    Despite massive costs, levelling of countryside to build truck parks, massive issues for fishermen, loss of FoM, the massive problems for touring musicians and the like, massive additional costs for duplication of standards, lack of truck drivers, lack of hospitality staff, lack of fruit pickers, the pound depreciating 15-20%, none of it is enough to shake the people from their belief that Brexit simply has to be done.



  • Registered Users Posts: 22,422 ✭✭✭✭Akrasia


    Plus at least some of these TA drivers are already working as professional drivers so moving them from their job to a half arsed army operation would reduce their efficiency



  • Registered Users Posts: 15,636 ✭✭✭✭Leroy42


    Yeah, but now they will be in army gear, and look really serious and invoke the spirit of WWII. Brexit is all about feelings, it has nothing to do with efficiency.



  • Registered Users Posts: 22,422 ✭✭✭✭Akrasia


    i remember when the army used to guard cash transits, it didn’t make me feel safe, it reminded me that there were bad forces out there who don’t care about the lives of innocent people if they got in the way of their personal and political objectives

    I can’t imagine that anyone would feel pride to see the army essentially handing out rations during peace time

    it would be a very strong indication that something has gone very badly wrong

    just like the existence of food banks and pawn shops on every corner



  • Registered Users Posts: 12 Seamus Ó Dubhghaill


    I can't wait for the outcry when things start running out.It reminds me of that witch Patel threatening to starve the Irish over Brexit.You won't find me shedding a tear for theirt Brexit stupidity.Now they'll know how their colonies felt for hundreds of years.



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Computer Games Moderators Posts: 51,393 CMod ✭✭✭✭Retr0gamer


    That won't happen though. The government will do what ever it takes to get food on the shelves so they don't look like a 1980's eastern bloc country. They will throw money at the problem and the use the taxpayers to pay for it which will be the real tragedy but the government will save face and paint it as them standing up to the EU enemy.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 15,636 ✭✭✭✭Leroy42


    And yet food banks continue to increase massively and the Tories galloped to an 80 seat majority.

    The UK has bought fully into the 'post-truth' world. People think that Trump was the leader of it, and perhaps he was, but the Tories have taken it to another level. Facts don't matter, outcomes don't matter. Feelings is all that matters. They have successfully replaced critical thinking with patriotism. Everything comes down to a binary choice between love the UK or get out.

    Johnson loves the UK, so they say, and as such everything he does is by extension right and needs to be supported.

    Food banks? They are for people that don't believe enough. Hell, you even had Raab posing for PR pics at a food bank as if it was something he should be applauded for!



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,994 ✭✭✭ambro25


    A non-trivial issue that gets oft-overlooked (for now), in relation to these shortages of HGV drivers, is that all avenues of domestic business in the UK with haulage needs, compete for the same pool. Sainsbury’s is not just pay packet-competing against Tesco for drivers, both are competing against Nissan Sunderland (etc).

    There are very serious issues reported in the UK construction sector, of which Brexit plays a non-exclusive but inevitable part, the shortage of drivers affecting that sector too of course. Construction is as fundamental an economic driver for the UK, as in most economies the world over.

    I’m not aware of any magic bullet the British government could shoot to mitigate the issue, when it is one that has the potential to see things spiral out of control fast, because as supply channels empty out across all sectors whilst logistics cannot catch up-restock, logically there is an eventual decision point of ‘feeding OR working’ (prioritising UK haulage capacity for foodstuffs over all other sectors).

    To say nothing of the inflationary spiral building in the back.



  • Registered Users Posts: 12 Seamus Ó Dubhghaill


    When do we think these food shortages are going to start kicking in ?



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Entertainment Moderators Posts: 36,527 CMod ✭✭✭✭pixelburp


    Have to align with Retro here; this isn't some tinpot Developing Nation that's one bad week away from a Civil War. Money will be pulled from somewhere to ensure the shelves are stoked, no matter where the cash needs to come from - it would hardly be the first government to solve a short-term problem with long-term money after all. Look out for another argument over pensions, public service funding or whatnot. Admittedly there have already been cases of UNICEF supplying foodstuffs to parts of the UK, so perhaps that will also increase (and will no doubt be marketed as something less tragic by Whitehall.)

    I don't seriously expect - or indeed, want - any major food shortages outside of a few "luxury" items disappearing from shelves quicker than normal. And while I've argued the case before that the population can't be wholly held responsible for the mess of Brexit, that goes double for wanting, or expecting, privations upon its people. They may end up blaming the EU for "punishing" their glorious adventure, but actual starvation is a bridge too far for schadenfreude.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,102 ✭✭✭The Raging Bile Duct


    How is throwing money at the problem going to suddenly materialise the 100,000 HGV drivers the Road Haulage Association say are needed?



  • Registered Users Posts: 24,506 ✭✭✭✭Cookie_Monster




  • Registered Users Posts: 5,994 ✭✭✭ambro25


    “Money will be pulled from somewhere to ensure the shelves are stoked, no matter where the cash needs to come from - it would hardly be the first government to solve a short-term problem with long-term money after all.”

    How soon would the boggo-standardo loaf of bread breach the £50 mark?

    Asking for a Zimbabwean friend 😉

    Joke aside, I get your sentiment, pixelburp. But we’re long through the looking glass of politics and governance in the common general interest, in the UK. It’s been next day-survival performative stuff for well over a year by now, with zero inkling of any strategic considerations.



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Entertainment Moderators Posts: 36,527 CMod ✭✭✭✭pixelburp


    I'm not saying it's either a genius move or will avoid being prone to failure; only that "government starves its own people through incompetence" seems like a bridge too far in terms of what a relatively stable country's infrastructure would allow. Maybe I'm being optimistic, but even the Tories aren't that bad; shelves will be emptier - they already are in some spots - but I'd not be surprised if they conjure some short-term "success". Maybe they'll throw money at the HGV drivers to pull quadruple shifts; maybe they'll just pay over the odds for some continental truckers to come over, fast-track visas or whatever would be necessary to get them on the British roads.



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Arts Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Entertainment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 18,311 CMod ✭✭✭✭Nody


    First of all the 100k missing is very much long term view due to aging driver base; it's been an ongoing issue for a very long time and it's not going away per say. The solution in terms of throwing money at the problem is a) robotics (you know Tories love the sound of robots driving around rather then people and great way to give grants to certain handpicked companies...), b) remove further driver limitations (already partially implemented with removal of driving limitations, simplified testing proposed etc.) and of course c) allow a set of companies (all that happen to be donating to Tories) the right to "temporary visas" to ensure drivers can be recruited externally (and not from Europe, I'd guess South Pacific to really keep the cost down while selling them at UK level cost to companies) and they companies will "guarantee the drivers will return" as excuse for the limitation (not that they actually would end up paying anything if the driver don't).

    None of those are a long term fix; but that's how I'd expect the UK government to throw money at it to "fix" the problem and most importantly ensure the "right" companies that donated gets rewarded accordingly.



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  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Entertainment Moderators Posts: 36,527 CMod ✭✭✭✭pixelburp


    Again, I'm not trying to give the Tories credit here, just saying that I expect chicanery and spoofing to skirt the issue and that broad starvation would be a bridge too far even for them. Nody spitballed how they'll get around the lack of HGV drivers in the short-term and IMO that tracks with the kind of Nepostic Duct Tape solution Brexit has already presented.



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