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Australian Response

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 26,771 ✭✭✭✭Peregrinus


    That's the thing; we know that early and hard lockdown does (mostly) result in short and effective lockdowns. Relative normality is mostly restored fairly quickly, with few cases and very few deaths. That's a pretty good result. It would be both brave and stupid to depart from a working model to one that would almost certainly have disastrous outcomes.

    The advent of the Delta variant means that this model doesn't work quite as well as it used to , but it also means that (given low rates of vaccination) abandoning this model would have much more dire outcomes than it would have had 6 or 12 months ago. So the stakes are higher but the odds haven't changed, so to speak. The rational course is to keep doing what we've been doing until effective vaccination can change the situation.

    And there is still strong political support for that. There are objectors, of course, but there are far more supporters of the strategy. Government will not want that to change. The population, as you say, expects nothing less than zero cases at the moment and, to be honest, it is not the public interest or in the political interest of the government for that expection to change until high rates of vaccination have been acheived.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,218 ✭✭✭snowcat


    The high rates of vaccination may actually help new variants emerge. While the vaccines will protect against severe outcomes they are not so good at preventing transmission or infection. Thus allowing spread and new variants to emerge that may defeat the vaccines completely. Herd immunity is unlikely with Covid as a result of transmission occuring in vaccinated people. Also the fact that animals get Covid means we would have to vax all of them as well. Vaccines together with full restrictions for vaxxed and un vaxxed seems to be the solution. With travel and countries having wildly different vaccination rates and lockdown strategies however any country may struggle to get herd immunity.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,218 ✭✭✭✭josip


    It seems that although cats and dogs can equally get Covid, only cats transmit it.

    So a cat eradication program would be sufficient to solve that problem.

    https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/daily-life-coping/animals.html



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,218 ✭✭✭snowcat




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 26,771 ✭✭✭✭Peregrinus


    Herd immunity isn't a simple binary; you can have higher and lower levels of herd immunity. Vaccines don't have to completely prevent transmission or infection in order to contribute to a useful degree of herd immunity; they just have to reduce them to a significant degree.

    The point of mass vaccination is to induce herd immunity and, as a result of mass vaccinations we consider ourselves to have heard immunity from measles, TB, whooping cough, etc. All these diseases still exist and people do contract them, even vaccinated people; all that herd immunity means is that even the unvaccinated are much less likely to contract them, because they are much less likely to encounter an infectious individual.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,571 ✭✭✭HBC08




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,675 ✭✭✭wassie


    Its too easy to look at this from the Irish perspective and our geographic location. Australia is a multicultural country with a large number of citizens and permanent residents (including large numbers of international students) originally from other countries close by in region that are currently suffering very badly at the moment.

    In the last few days the numbers of new daily cases being reported in these countries is staggering. eg India 40k, Indonesia 35k, Malaysia 20k. Is it any wonder Aus & NZ have their borders locked down to help keep this tidal wave at bay that is literally on their doorstep. Sadly there is little reporting in our media about these countries, but rather on a few hundred cases in part of Australia.

    Post edited by wassie on


  • Registered Users Posts: 715 ✭✭✭gral6


    India 40k...Do you know what India's population?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,675 ✭✭✭wassie


    I do. Your point?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,218 ✭✭✭✭josip


    Are you saying that because the AOC didn't properly check the protocols, the SA athletes have an additional 14 days quarantine?

    That's not what the SMH says:

    "...The cricketer’s predicament came as it emerged the South Australian government also blindsided a group of returning Olympians by alerting the Australian Olympic Committee they would have to quarantine twice if they landed in Sydney, but only after the athletes had already left Japan."

    https://www.smh.com.au/sport/devastating-sa-double-quarantine-sprung-on-olympians-while-flying-home-from-tokyo-20210812-p58i85.html



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    Australia gets as much coverage as other Asian countries. Most of our media stories are homegrown but you'd have to say their approach is unfathomable to people on these shores when we've had 20,000 cases in the last two weeks. It also seems exclusively brutal at times in its approach but not so say those who live there. It is their approach and they have to stick with it but it's not one we would ever follow.



  • Registered Users Posts: 12 Seamus Ó Dubhghaill


    Crikey - Australia's capital Canberra goes into a 7-day lockdown after just one case of Covid is discovered. One !



  • Registered Users Posts: 274 ✭✭Not in Kansas


    I've been dipping in and out of Australian politics and their Covid response as I've so many family members and friends living there. It's sad to see the virus taking hold there, particularly in New South Wales where the premier is smug beyond belief and the health minister is a misogynistic moron.

    Each country will have their if-only moment to look back on. Obviously it's December 2020 and the tragic aftermath for Ireland.

    If only Australia's vaccine procurement and subsequent messaging had gone differently, they would be best placed in the world right now for a return to some type of normality.

    Really hoping the worst doesn't come to pass down under.

    Post edited by Not in Kansas on


  • Registered Users Posts: 715 ✭✭✭gral6


    If they have put every foreign arrival into MHQ for 4 weeks, not just their Olympic heroes, they would have been in much better position now!



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 26,771 ✭✭✭✭Peregrinus


    I'm gonna hazard a guess that that story was briefed by a rather defensive AOC. If they were blindsided by this news, it can only be because they hadn't bothered to check the SA Dept of Health web page detailing SA travel restrictions, where the information was available for anyone to read.

    And it's quite possible they hadn't bothered to check it - they may have seen it as their job to get the team back to Australia, with individual athletes returning to their own homes around the country being very much a secondary matter. It's common for national institutions based in the metropolitan cities of Sydney and Melbourne, especially those with an international focus, to give little thought to purely local concerns outside the Eastern states.

    You may think the SA policy is unreasonably tough, but the AOC definitely stuffed up by not bothering to check what it was. Other sporting organisations have managed to negotiate these obstacles.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 83,711 ✭✭✭✭Atlantic Dawn
    M


    Next election in Australia is May 2022, when the current approach will be decided.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,047 ✭✭✭tabby aspreme


    Cat eradication in a country that has a mouse and rabbit plague, mightn't be a good idea



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 26,771 ✭✭✭✭Peregrinus



    Not so simple - this is a joint state/federal policy. While immigration (and therefore international travel restrictions and quarantine for international arrivals) is a federal matter, health generally (and therefore lockdowns, social distancing and other restrictions, domestic travel restrictions, Covid testing and treatment) is a state matter. But much of what the states and territories do on those matters is financed by the federal government, which gives the feds some influence. Financial support for those affected by lockdown has been mainly provided by the federal government but the states are now doing a bit more in that regard. Vaccination administration is technically a state matter but the federal government has assumed responsibility for procurement and for much of the administration. They have made enough of a hames of it that the state governments have reasserted themselves and are now involved in administration (but still not in procurement).

    In short, various aspects of pandemic policy are so intertwined that in practice they all have to be negotiated, and a joint federal/state approach agreed.

    This process is being managed through the "national cabinet" which is a joint meeting of the federal prime minister and the premiers/first ministers of the states and territories. (It works on a nonpartisan basis, which is fortunate for the current (Liberal) government, since 5 of the 9 members of the national cabinet are Labour premiers/chief ministers.) The national cabinet process is generally seen to have worked pretty well.

    Even if there's a change of government in the federal election in May 2022, that only changes one seat on the national cabinet. The other eight members form their own view about what implications that has for them.

    Since the pandemic started five of the nine members of the national cabinet have faced elections (Queensland, Tasmania, Western Australia, the Northern Territory, the Australian Capital Territory). In each case the sitting government has been returned, which they are likely to take as an affirmation of the pandemic management policies they have been pursuing. So even if there's a change of government at the next federal election, that won't necessarily be a game-changer as regards pandemic policy. State and territory heads of government will ask themselves if the federal election outcome reflects public dissatisfaction with pandemic management policies (as opposed to other election issues) and, if it does, whether the national mood about that is mirrored in their own state or territory.

    Much will of course depend on whether the opposition wins the election of a platform promising a different approach to pandemic management, or basically the same approach, just more competently executed, or something in between. So far they have certainly not been calling for a different approach, but who knows what their position will be next May?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,675 ✭✭✭wassie


    Cats, specifically feral cats, are a big problem in Australia threatening much of the native fauna. They are a declared pest and are already subject to eradication programs in certain parts of the country. That being said any domestic cat program wont be on the cards.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,390 ✭✭✭ceadaoin.


    Just 21 days to stop the spread now. Good luck with that. Given the language being used by the authorities in this article, you'll need it 😱 what could possibly go wrong?


    I wonder what the next step will be when these don't work? This is already pretty extreme.

    "To curb movement, more restrictions will come into effect from midnight on Monday and NSW Police will launch 'Operation Stay Home' — a 21-day crackdown with increased penalties.

    To assist with the operation, the NSW Police have requested an additional 500 members of the Australian Defence Force, who will join the already 300 ADF personnel on the ground.

    NSW Police Commissioner Mick Fuller said too many people were using excuses relating to exercise, the singles bubble and regional travel and they needed to close these gaps.

    "I honestly think we can get NSW of lockdown quicker [with these powers]," he said.

    "These are some of the strongest powers we’ve ever had in the history of the NSW Police Force, as part of the government’s strategy to get in front of the virus in the coming weeks – it's all about getting ahead of Delta, not chasing it."





  • Registered Users Posts: 80 ✭✭Ashdublinc13


    How are people living in Oz feeling? Looking at the news, restrictions in Victoria seem very tough. Are people still in favour of restrictions?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,989 ✭✭✭Noo


    As stressed continously in this thread, it depends where you are. Im in Brisbane, we did a snap week long lockdown in early August and our cases are now back at zero. So back to normal here, still have some mask restrictions for another few days but thats to be expected.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 40,909 ✭✭✭✭Xavi6


    I'm in Perth, life is normal. Saw one person on the train with a mask yesterday (nobody wearing one in the CBD).



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    Really not a good look for any wealthy country, Canada did it earlier in the year, but equally people can't complain about problems for COVAX in getting doses for less wealthy countries.





  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,236 ✭✭✭Dr. Kenneth Noisewater


    Not Australia, but next door neighbours New Zealand are back into Level 4 lockdown from midnight;

    Due to just 1 confirmed case in Auckland but the panic seems to be that they have no idea where your man picked it up and that they reckon it'll be the Delta variant.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 24,523 ✭✭✭✭Cookie_Monster


    hard to see it not being delta. every border case in last 2 weeks is delta. only 1 since june is not.

    hopefully its quickly traced and we get back to normal, in the meantime 3 days getting paid to do nothing is pretty handy



  • Registered Users Posts: 715 ✭✭✭gral6


    Be careful, these three days can always turn into 6 months....and money can run our at some stage



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 24,523 ✭✭✭✭Cookie_Monster


    everyone gets paid at least 80% of their normal wages by govt if lockdown more than 7 days. if under it business still have to pay people as normal.

    obviously the govt will eventually run out of money, even printing it non stop but our debt to gdp is pretty good so a lot of reserve. and the last 9 months have been insanely good for the economy here.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,123 ✭✭✭✭Gael23


    Further evidence that COVID zero doesn’t work



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,236 ✭✭✭Dr. Kenneth Noisewater


    Posted the headline waiting for this out of someone. COVID zero has been working in NZ for 15 months, with the odd minor hiccup. It's still a sh*te sight better than just letting it run rampant.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,493 ✭✭✭bennyineire


    If and it's a big if, the Delta variant is there now and in the community there will be no stopping it. The next 7 days will tell



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,236 ✭✭✭Dr. Kenneth Noisewater


    I'd imagine it is definitely Delta. Judging by how rampant it has been in Sydney, it could be very hard to stamp out all right. At least they're taking no chances, full lockdown. If it doesn't work, it doesn't work.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,588 ✭✭✭derfderf


    They seem to have stamped it out in Queensland. And Victoria's numbers are steady, but it's still early days. NSW followed the same plan that worked before, but it didn't this time.

    I think the biggest struggle most people are having here now is weeks of home-schooling. Other than that most people are getting on with it.

    They did say today they think they'll relax some restrictions next month, with more in October. At current rate it will be mid October when the vaccination targets are hit, but I don't know if this takes vaccine availability into account.



  • Registered Users Posts: 715 ✭✭✭gral6


    If you are willing to be cut off from the rest world for the rest of your life, yes. It works for awhile. Not for that long though



  • Registered Users Posts: 971 ✭✭✭bob mcbob


    I saw this in the Guardian yesterday - is it correct that even after 80% have been vaccinated, the opening up is still dependent on low case rates per day (30 - 40)? If this is correct then a meaningful opening up won't happen anytime soon


    For the first time, Berejiklian said on Monday that the Doherty Institute modelling for opening up – when 70% or 80% of the adult population was vaccinated – is based on having about 30 cases at that time.

    “If you read the Doherty Institute report, that is based on the premise of 30 to 40 cases in relation to all the things you can do,” Berejiklian“You can live life more freely than what you are today but the extent of your freedom depends on case numbers. If case numbers are where they are now and we get to 80% double doses, we won’t be able to do everything that we want to do.”





  • Registered Users Posts: 322 ✭✭muddypuppy


    If you wanna do Covid zero that’s the way to go. Harsh, strict, early and (very important!) short lockdown so that the population will likely comply. Plus good contact tracing.

    Which is the opposite of what Sydney did, and now they’re in “forever” (“light”) lockdown.

    Hopefully it will go well for NZ.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,493 ✭✭✭bennyineire


    Yep fair point, Sydney did appear to drag it's heels from the first week, hence why they are in the mess they are in now



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,871 ✭✭✭DeanAustin


    People in Ireland were losing their **** at lockdowns when we had hundreds or thousands of daily cases. I'd imagine we'd have uproar if we were locked down for one case. NZ also only has 20% of the population vaccinated which is staggeringly low. If they could get people vaccinated quickly you'd say they've managed the pandemic well but right now it looks like they are in a spot of bother because they can't become North Korea and they can't open up with so many unvaccinated.


    Had a pain in my face reading how great Jacinda Ardern is for the last 12 months. A lot of those SM posts seem to have disappeared now.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,989 ✭✭✭Noo


    Whereas Queensland didnt. They did a quick snap week long lockdown, and now theyre back to zero.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,573 ✭✭✭WhiteMemento9




  • Registered Users Posts: 715 ✭✭✭gral6




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 24,523 ✭✭✭✭Cookie_Monster


    fully vaccinated. 1 shot is 38.X%, its growing by about 1% per day recently. Still not great but not as bad as the 20% headline



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,113 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    Then along comes a vaccine resistant lambda variant and you're back to square one.



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,871 ✭✭✭DeanAustin


    Fair enough but I'd rather be in our position than their position when it comes to vaccinations. Yet I don't see people on LinkedIn or Facebook falling over themselves to congratulate our politicians like they were falling over themselves for Ardern this time 12 months ago.



  • Registered Users Posts: 322 ✭✭muddypuppy


    I also keep hearing from my friend there that it’s not really too harsh. Sure it’s a lockdown alright, but from what he tells me it feels like the same “level 5” we had last march/April here, with people happily going for takeaway drinks, crowded beaches (it’s Australia not Ireland after all), house parties and all of that.


    In my opinion it shows that lockdown fatigue is a real thing, which is again why lockdowns should be extremely harsh but also extremely short.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,390 ✭✭✭ceadaoin.


    Other places are doing boosters now. By the time Australia reaches their target, protection will be starting to wane for those who were vaccinated earliest. I'd be willing to bet money, that australia won't be opening to the world this year or next. Not without a drastic change if strategy and basically admitting defeat.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,113 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    Once again, it turns out Ardern did exactly the right thing in locking down for one case; which is now 4 and is delta, with a hospital ward compromised due to one of the 4 being a health care worker.

    I dont get this blaming over low vacination rates, which is directly related to the difficulty in sourcing doses.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,345 ✭✭✭bikeman1


    I would hate to be in Oz and NZ right now. They are only beginning their lockdown and Covid journey. There is no way to keep the rising tide of Delta away. You can lockdown all you want, but it just takes one person to spread to another and then on it goes.

    We have seen that lockdowns don’t work with Delta. It’s a pointless exercise. This will just go on and on.

    I really wish them the best, but the extremely poor rollout of the vaccination will be their biggest failure.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 715 ✭✭✭gral6


    May Oz and NZ should come up with idea of locking up people in MHQ coming from abroad for 6 months instead of 2-4 weeks?



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