Advertisement
If you have a new account but are having problems posting or verifying your account, please email us on hello@boards.ie for help. Thanks :)
Hello all! Please ensure that you are posting a new thread or question in the appropriate forum. The Feedback forum is overwhelmed with questions that are having to be moved elsewhere. If you need help to verify your account contact hello@boards.ie

2020 officially saw a record number of $1 billion weather and climate disasters.

Options
1373840424384

Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 22,408 ✭✭✭✭Akrasia


    you are so certain that you cannot see how little you know.

    you cannot possibly examine all evidence and all data. The fact that you believe this is the point I was trying to make

    I don’t refer to my expertise, I refer to the scientific consensus. It took the dozens of IPCC scientists thousands of hours to review hundreds of papers that took thousands of hours to produce. But you know better



  • Registered Users Posts: 6,235 ✭✭✭Oneiric 3


    And what do you think I am certain of, Akrasia?

    New Moon



  • Registered Users Posts: 22,408 ✭✭✭✭Akrasia


    Automatic stations tend not to get drunk, and the data will be checked before being admitted to the public record

    your ‘point’ becomes more esoteric by the day

    how many historical records need to fall before you acknowledge the trend?

    your position is beyond unscientific at this point, the trends are established beyond any reasonable doubt



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    Not drunk, no, but sensor exposure is a possibility. No reason to suspect that in this case and the station looks to be well-sited. It started reporting in January 2002 so it's relatively new.



  • Registered Users Posts: 22,408 ✭✭✭✭Akrasia


    You are certain that efforts to get to carbon neutrality are overblown and that we should not take immediate and urgent action to transition to carbon neutral energy

    unless you have recently changed your view in which case we are now in agreement



  • Advertisement
  • Registered Users Posts: 22,408 ✭✭✭✭Akrasia


    It is a very large increase over the previous record, almost 1c



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    And it was a good bit higher than any other station in the network, with an unusual spike in both temperature and dewpoint yesterday afternoon. The spike in dewpoint would raise questions on sensor exposure as dewpoint should not show a sudden spike like that even if temperature does. No such spikes were evident on previous days so we will just have to see if it passes validation.

    EDIT: Actually that blue line is not dewpoint but seems to be the minimum temperature in the (I think) 10-minute reporting period. In any case that's a very sharp spike.

    Post edited by Gaoth Laidir on


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    There was also a strange 4-degree spike in temperature during the night, coinciding with a sharp gust of wind. This didn't happen on other days. Strange.




  • Registered Users Posts: 22,408 ✭✭✭✭Akrasia


    Give it a rest. If goalpost shifting was an Olympic event you’d definitely be on the podium



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,913 ✭✭✭Danno


    [...but one measurement in Kilkenny by one guy who might have been drunk or the thermometer might have been properly calibrated, that one reading is enough for you to discount the mountain of evidence that our climate is warming.]

    It never ceases to amaze me how much disdain for this record there is amongst climate changers, yet the official Irish Cold Temperature record of -19.1c observed at Sligo just six short years earlier than Kilkenny's record is never, ever called into question.



  • Advertisement
  • Registered Users Posts: 6,235 ✭✭✭Oneiric 3


    Highlighting a spike is 'goal post shifting'.

    I said yesterday that your talent lay in science. Perhaps I was too quick to judge.

    "I am before I think".

    New Moon



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,570 ✭✭✭Tyrone212


    To be fair you did say

    "Yes, records are there to be broken and always have been, but it amazes me that if what you say is true then why has nowhere in Europe, never mind just Greece, already beaten that record? We're not just talking about one station here."



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    Yes, and that was before yesterday. How does that in any way imply that I said the record would never be broken? You too are missing my whole point on severe heat in lower-CO2 times.



  • Registered Users Posts: 22,408 ✭✭✭✭Akrasia


    Goal post moving at the Olympic gold standard is using the fact that the European maximum heat record is 43 years old as a reason to be skeptical and then, when the record is broken, literally the next day, deep diving into that stations data for reasons why it shouldn’t count…



  • Registered Users Posts: 22,408 ✭✭✭✭Akrasia


    So is the new goalpost that climate change isn’t a problem unless the european maximum temperature record is beaten every year?

    how many times have I mentioned the shifting of the bell curve in this thread? At least 10 by now. The 1977 record stood for 43 years because it was a rare event. By 2031 we will most likely have a higher European heat record and multiple instances where 48c will have been reached and exceeded

    climate change is not all about breaking maximum temperature records, it’s about shifting the ‘normal’ which in turn means that what was once extreme weather becomes normal, and the new extremes are unprecedented events



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    What are you talking about? The WMO are doing the very same thing, ffs. If they find nothing out of the ordinary then it will stand. The link I provided has a very detailed disclaimer on the use of the data there before manual validation is performed.

    The Armagh record went through that process and was rejected.

    About 20 years ago a similarly high daily max was rejected here in Sardinia because it was influenced by a nearby wildfire. Not saying that's the case in Siracusa, but I'm sure the WMO will analyse that spike too and if they're happy with it then fine. All I was saying was that no such spike occured in the preceding days under similar conditions. Or did you even look at the data?



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    I'm amazed at Akrasia's absolute hypocrisy. On the one hand he has a go at me for analysing a dataset but yet he questions the Kilkenny reading as "yer man was probably drunk or the sensor was [sic] properly calibrated".



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,570 ✭✭✭jackboy


    What an embarrassing response to a well thought out post.

    Scrutinising that data is an interesting thing to do as the high value is so unusual. That stands whether the data is officially accepted or not.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,855 ✭✭✭Nabber


    At least the media have jumped on it before it’s verified.


    The issue remains with carbon being blamed for local heat spikes. Ignoring other likely factors like deforestation, water management, development and farming.


    Media is complete circus, not just regarding weather reporting.



  • Advertisement
  • Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    Just in the interest of information, not shifting any goalposts, here is the station in question, about 2 km south of the town of Floridia.




  • Registered Users Posts: 22,408 ✭✭✭✭Akrasia


    I didn’t say ‘probably drunk’. You added the ‘probably’ but there was nowhere near the rigorous validation that the WMO will do on this reading. You’re happy to discount readings from yesterday because of an anomaly that calls it’s validity into question (and rightly so) but those checks simply were not performed on the historical data.

    nevermind, the current heatwave hasn’t peaked yet, the old European record could be broken in multiple stations before the week is over

    when that happens, will you finally address my points surrounding the shifting of that bell curve?



  • Registered Users Posts: 22,408 ✭✭✭✭Akrasia


    Carbon being blamed for local heat spikes? This isn’t someone leaving an oven door open, it’s a heatwave spanning multiple countries lasting multiple days that may have synoptic causes that are ‘natural’ but have outcomes amplified by the increased energy caused by fundamentally altering the atmospheric composition through ghg emissions



  • Registered Users Posts: 22,408 ✭✭✭✭Akrasia


    Well thought out post, or furious backpedaling when he pointed out that a specific maximum temperature record is 43years old, and insisted that I explain why, and 1 day later, that record was reportedly broken by almost 1 (by the Italian met service)

    The most ridiculous thing about this all is that temperatures even approaching 50c would have been unthinkable in populated areas of Europe, or seen as freak weather events, but we have ‘skeptics on here downplaying them and pretending that these extremes are perfectly normal just because they happened once before a half century before



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    Oh how stupid of me, you said "might have been drunk". Yes, that really makes a huge difference alright. Nowhere near 5-sigma on that one.

    ...one measurement in Kilkenny by one guy who might have been drunk...

    Here's the WMO's comment on their nitpicking goalpost-moving check of that reading (from their Facebook page). It's ok if they check it but not me.

    WMO is checking on reports of new European continental #temperature #record of 48.8°C in #Sicily (#Italy) during an ongoing #heatwave in the Mediterranean and North Africa.

    The observation was not made by the official Italian weather service, but by an agro-meteorological group out of Sicily. 

    Experts from WMO's Weather and Climate Extremes Archive have reached out for further information about this incredible temperature. But at this stage, we can't make any preliminary assessment of the 48.8 °C observation.

    In an era of #climatechange and rising temperatures, we make sure that all new reported records are scientifically verified.

    The existing record was set in Athens (#Greece) on 10 July 1977.

    Details of records of heat, precipitation, wind and much much more are available at 

    https://wmo.asu.edu

    You obviously still don't get my point on this heatwave so I'm not going to keep repeating myself. If it was beaten yesterday or may be beaten in the next few days is irrelevant.



  • Registered Users Posts: 22,408 ✭✭✭✭Akrasia


    Well, ‘probably’ means something very different from ‘might’ so thanks for clearing that up

    whatever point you are making, the rest of the world is recognizing that the world is heating up, all kinds of temperature records(max daily, max nightly, average daily, average weekly, average monthly, average annual, average decadal etc etc) are being beaten at a rate even faster than predicted by climate models

    Your point is not being received because it is not a point that has a point



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    I'm confused. You say

    You’re happy to discount readings from yesterday because of an anomaly that calls it’s validity into question (and rightly so) but those checks simply were not performed on the historical data.

    When did I discount it? I didn't. I did what the WMO are doing and analysing it.

    But then you say there's an anomaly that calls its validity into question, and rightly so? So now I'm right to question it? I can't follow you at all.

    By the same note, you're doubting a reading 150 years ago that you know nothing about and are making up a scenario where the observer may/could have been drunk (use semantics all you like, your point remains the same). You're purely doing that because you don't like the number. Whatever about validation checks, but drunk?

    And if you want to nitpick, the station was not part of the Italian Met Service network, as you claimed above. Just tidying that one up too.



  • Registered Users Posts: 22,408 ✭✭✭✭Akrasia


    It is right that modern temperature records are validated. Historical weather records have an uncertainty associated with them because the same validation is not consistently done for those records

    putting less confidence on pre automated/standardized measurements is science

    and I have repeatedly said that the headline temperature records are trivia, the creeping increase in averages is the story, given the consequence of shifting the distribution towards higher temperatures inevitably leads to higher maxima (extremes)


    you are the one who brought the 1977 record into this thread, specifically because it wasn’t beaten yet. so you need to justify that reference now that it has already been beaten, or is likely to be beaten in the coming days



  • Registered Users Posts: 6,235 ✭✭✭Oneiric 3


    If that Kilkenny record was deemed anyway dodgy, then Met Eireann wouldn't have it listed in there records page:

    Weather Extreme Records for Ireland - Met Éireann - The Irish Meteorological Service

    Amazing the arrogance on here from people who think they know better about past weather than experts...

    New Moon



  • Advertisement
  • Registered Users Posts: 6,235 ✭✭✭Oneiric 3


    I think you may have missed a study (I know how you love them) I posted on here a couple of weeks back that showed that the cleaner air brought about by the lockdowns actually helped to increase the warming of the global atmosphere. I wonder has this contributed a little to all these heat records being broken across N America and Europe? And I also wonder if the huge reduction industrial coal usage in Europe and N America over the last 30 years also helped to heat up the atmosphere, given that industrial aerosols actually helped to cool the global atmosphere in the first place.

    New Moon



Advertisement