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Herd immunity is not going to happen

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  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    These lads ran the biggest empire the world has ever seen.

    We abstained for WWII despite mass genocide in eastern europe and then sent Hitler a letter of condolsence at the end of the war.

    Thats how we do our business.



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,685 ✭✭✭brickster69


    Well, at least there is a big air force as back up. Oh hang on, those bar stewards do that for us as well

    “The earth is littered with the ruins of empires that believed they were eternal.”

    - Camille Paglia



  • Registered Users Posts: 171 ✭✭FoFo1254122


    Cso for Ireland

    all the stats are official and easily Googled

    In the Uk there was unofficially 70,000 excess deaths between 2020 and 2018, for a population of 70 million is no big deal

    expect 2021 total deaths to fall back to 2018 levels

    amazing reading the old figures the 70s and 80s in the UK regularly saw well over 600k deaths annually, this reducing since the 90s

    they were hardy people back then, just got on with it



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Why is this surprising?

    Just as youd expect

    The people unvaccinated are probably in the main young healthy people.

    Im sure every graph in the developed world looks similar.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 16,710 ✭✭✭✭astrofool


    That's still not what that (quickly googled) article is saying. Right now Pfizer are not recommending third or booster shots because they don't have results from studies yet, they might in the future, but Israel is going against current guidance if it starts giving out booster shots from a population that still hasn't hit a 70% vaccinated rate.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,147 ✭✭✭TonyMaloney


    I started this thread this morning and I've honestly no idea what you are all banging on about



  • Registered Users Posts: 16,710 ✭✭✭✭astrofool


    It's funnier watching you flail about pretending to understand things at this stage than showing you recent posts that you'll also probably fail to understand.



  • Registered Users Posts: 16,710 ✭✭✭✭astrofool


    I think the important thing is that you hopefully understand how herd immunity is reached and how and why it will be reached with Sars-Cov2.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,147 ✭✭✭TonyMaloney


    Yes. Yes, of course.

    I have learned all about that thing that you taught me, and all is now well with the universe

    Good night everybody



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  • Registered Users Posts: 5,685 ✭✭✭brickster69


    Oh right. Is that an answer to a question that you totally never answered ?

    What do you think?

    One of the worlds superpowers, with one of the greatest scientific brains on the planet did a report by it's health ministry that showed the only vaccine it was using became more or less useless after six months for protecting the people from infection that first took the vaccine ie. the most vulnerable.

    You think without double or treble checking all the data to see if it was all ok, they straight away (within 3 days), started to give a third dose to that group of people, going against all the available science at the time. Then they brought in further plans so that everyone over 40 should get a booster ASAP.

    Do you somehow get the impression they are taking this very seriously and actually understand what a problem it could be if they do not act straight away ?

    “The earth is littered with the ruins of empires that believed they were eternal.”

    - Camille Paglia



  • Registered Users Posts: 12,244 ✭✭✭✭Flinty997


    "...became more or less useless after six month..."


    Thats not what its says at all.



  • Registered Users Posts: 12,244 ✭✭✭✭Flinty997



    Life expectancy from the 70's to now is up from 70 to 82. Maybe not so hardy.

    Not that this is just about deaths, but with everyone locked down the normal deaths from accidents, and such didn't happen. Yet the death rate went up.

    So you're two for two, well three for three with being wrong. At least you're consistent.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,354 ✭✭✭nocoverart


    Yeah, mods should really crack down on this nonsense. That poster is continuously spreading misinformation. He/She is not the first and not the only one but it’s getting silly now. Feel sorry for the more versed in these matters than I that try to explain in a rational manner. I wouldn’t have the patience.



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,771 ✭✭✭Charles Babbage


    Last year was last year. hHousehold infection with Delta was very common in the Spring in the absence of vaccination. Why compare two things that are not the same?

    Infection will provide some protection for those not vaccinated, but how much? A lot more data is needed. How about people infected and then vaccinated or those who became infected after vaccination?



  • Registered Users Posts: 12,244 ✭✭✭✭Flinty997




  • Registered Users Posts: 12,244 ✭✭✭✭Flinty997


    The figure is debatable as its early days, and this is at preventing transmissions only. Its still highly effective at the other aspects.

    Lets say its 40%, Seems a lot better then 0%.



  • Registered Users Posts: 13 Marilynr2


    No, that number is not necessarily accurate at all.

    To get a better idea of likelihood of catching it while vaxxed or non-vaxxed the groups would have to be in the exact same environment under the same 'test conditions!

    You might say the vaxxed are out and about more and indoor dining etc. so they are exposed more than the non vaxxed which would mean the true number could be even higher for catching it if non vaxxed, but I know lots of people who are double vaxxed who are still keeping their distance from everyone and not socialising or going to the shops etc, while I know lots of non vaxxed who are mixing with lots of different groups and taking no precautions!

    So it could be the case that it is the behaviour of the 2 groups that is skewing those figures!

    Along with socialising and mixing I know a few non vaxxed who have stopped wearing masks recently and who have stopped using hand sanitiser. There's many who are also seeking out the non discriminatory businesses who don't require mask wearing, barbers etc, and specifically going to those places, which are possibly much higher risk than the other ones in the area!

    I'm not vaccinated, but my contacts are still to a minimum, I wear a mask and I use hand sanitiser....my chances of catching covid are a lot less than the non-vaxxed who are partying and not wearing masks, sanitising their hands and so on, so it's not simply about whether people are vaccinated or not!



  • Registered Users Posts: 82,778 ✭✭✭✭Atlantic Dawn
    M


    Whoy would you need herd immunity if vaccines work? Those not wanting the vaccing make their own decisions, let the stats decide.



  • Registered Users Posts: 6,028 ✭✭✭Former Former Former


    Totally agree. Let those not wanting the vaccine make their own decisions. Also, let them be prohibited from workplaces, bars, restaurants, cinemas, schools, public transport, non-essential retail and indoor socialising.

    If too many people decline to get vaccinated, the virus continues to circulate in society. If the virus continues to circulate, the majority of people who are vaccinated will not catch it and those who do will have very low risk of illness. However, there are a lot of people who (mainly through age or illness) will not have enough immunity, vaccinated or not, and these people remain at risk of serious illness. The only way to protect them is to keep the numbers declining the vaccine very low (which seems to be working) or keep the unvaccinated people away from everyone else.

    No one should be forced to get the vaccine. But equally you should not be allowed to insist on being part of society when it suits and demand your individual freedoms when it doesn't.

    (yes, I know the virus is going to continue to circulate anyway)



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  • Registered Users Posts: 31,085 ✭✭✭✭Lumen


    I think there's a world of difference between offering time limited "early access" to indoor public spaces to the vaccinated while a vaccine rollout is in progress, and creating a permanent state of affairs where unvaccinated people are excluded from public life.

    I think most vaccine hesitant people are utter morons, but I do not support a permanent infrastructure for limiting the freedom of morons in this way, even when the exercise of those freedoms contribute to a certain amount of disease and death.

    That said, I think I might support businesses that choose to restrict access, on the basis that people ought to be able to choose to go to places where others are also vaccinated. That does sound a lot like apartheid by market forces, though, so it doesn't make me comfortable either.



  • Registered Users Posts: 13 Marilynr2


    The vulnerable people are vulnerable right now and yet it seems to be ok for them to be at risk at the moment? Vaccinated people are allowed to mix even though we're still officially in a pandemic, they haven't got the required numbers for herd immunity.. and the vaccinated can still spread it.

    The government also had to tell vaccinated people who were showing symptoms to 'STAY AT HOME' because some of them seemed to have forgotten the rule of the last 18 months and went out socialising even though they had covid symptoms and passed it on.

    Also people are vulnerable to flu, and no one ever seemed to care about that, or anything else that could be spread to vulnerable people. You're saying the unvaccinated should be excluded from society basically. So what about the vaxxed? what if they have flu or norovirus or anything else? should it be a crime for them to leave the house in this new society or is that kind of thing ok?



  • Registered Users Posts: 6,028 ✭✭✭Former Former Former


    Ah yeah, I may be exaggerating for dramatic effect.

    But I think some level of differentiation is inevitable in the short to medium term, it has to be. When the pandemic gets to manageable levels, remove them, but we are at least a year from that now.

    We have incredible levels of vaccine uptake. I would like to believe it's because we're all civic minded and responsible, but a little part of me suspects that the lure of indoor pints is playing a role too. If we can all go back to normal behaviour regardless of vaccine, then maybe people don't bother with it.

    The carrot of staying healthy and protecting others obviously isn't enough for some people, and if the carrot doesn't work, then you need a stick.



  • Registered Users Posts: 31,085 ✭✭✭✭Lumen


    @Former Former Former wrote

    When the pandemic gets to manageable levels

    It is at manageable levels now, at least in Ireland.

    Aside from some edge cases, the vulnerable are vaccinated. I said months ago that when we reached this point in the vaccination programme we should reopen fully. I am disappointed that we have not achieved herd immunity through vaccination, but I will not allow my goalposts to be moved by that.

    If we're not going to crush Covid in mid summer with a freshly vaccinated population, I'm not holding my breath for that happening this winter, or even next summer.

    If we can't draw a line in the sand then we're essentially admitting that our relationship with infectious disease had fundamentally changed, and that we're no longer going to accept any level of preventable death from it.

    SARS-Cov-2 is not Ebola. It was reasonable to deal with it cautiously when our hospitals were being overrun. We must now find an accommodation with it, and try to return to normal. Those who have an extreme dislike of being sick, myself included, can opt in to precautions and moderate our lifestyle to suit. I did that years ago, eschewing packed public transport for the joys of a bicycle. I will continue to make those type of choices.



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,685 ✭✭✭brickster69


    Excuse me, how is it misinformation. i said "did a report by it's health ministry that showed the only vaccine it was using became more or less useless after six months for protecting the people from infection that first took the vaccine ie. the most vulnerable."

    I am only going on what has been published not making anything up you know. Hopefully it is wrong who knows.


    If it is correct it means that on the 17th of July protection for people who took the jab had 16% protection which is not great, but at least they still have decent protection from severe effects. Maybe after a month it shoots up to 90%.

    So again it is not misinformation, it only only information you may not want to hear. Maybe it is false information,hopefully it is. But you would be better pointing the finger at Israel's Health Agency not me.

    “The earth is littered with the ruins of empires that believed they were eternal.”

    - Camille Paglia



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]




  • Registered Users Posts: 6,028 ✭✭✭Former Former Former


    "I am disappointed that we have not achieved herd immunity through vaccination, but I will not allow my goalposts to be moved by that."

    We are at 62% of the population fully vaccinated. When did anyone think 62% was going to be remotely enough for herd immunity? Even pre-Delta it needed to be much higher than that.



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    You are a dangerous purveyor of misinformation. Through deliberate misrepresentation or ignorance, one or the other. Look at the right side of your f*ucking chart.

    Add to this the fact that those vaxxinated in January are disproportionately the elderly and vulnerable, those least likely to elicit a strong vaccine reponse.



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,685 ✭✭✭brickster69


    Did you read what i said "but at least they still have decent protection from severe effects" This is true, not misinformation or ignorance at all, it is good news which i acknowledged as being so.

    If a year ago someone said we have a jab that does not stop you getting it but saves your life everyone would take it straight away. any effectiveness at all is a bonus in my book.If the waning is true it means we will all need a top up at some point.

    “The earth is littered with the ruins of empires that believed they were eternal.”

    - Camille Paglia



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  • Registered Users Posts: 12,244 ✭✭✭✭Flinty997


    Thats not what it says. Whats the difference between 16% and the 39% in your chart.

    I'll say your because you keep posting them with out a link to the source article.



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