Herd immunity is not going to happen

@Former Former Former wrote:

I guess I'm jumping the gun a bit based on countries like Iceland which are a little ahead of us (around 69% total pop. fully vaccinated).

From what I recall the original projections were 60% immunity based on an R0 of 2.5 (estimates from early 2020), which could be achieved in theory with around 70% of the population jabbed with a vaccine that reduced transmission by around 85%. There were other positive assumptions like children not being a major source of infection which have since been cast into doubt.

Do you think that herd immunity with normal levels of social contact is still achievable without some further breakthrough in vaccine development?

We protect them by vaccinating them, not much more we can do, would you like people to be locked into their homes Chinese style ?

@Former Former Former wrote:

I always qualify things like this with, "Covid is not the 'flu", but sometimes is useful as a way for people to understand the nature of these things. If you've ever had 'flu, you know it doesn't fvck around. A little bit of fatigue, maybe a cough, some sniffles, a day or two on the couch watching TV, is a cold.

2-5 days of being able to barely drag yourself out of bed, staring into space because you basically have no energy for anything else, spiking fevers, brain fog so bad you may as well be dreaming, followed by 3 weeks of feeling a bit "off". That's 'flu.

If your relative over 65 contracts 'flu, there is a not insignificant chance that it will finish them off, especially if they have any pre-existing conditions. Thankfully the flu is considerably less contagious than we typically believe it to be, and as a result it's relatively rare to hear about someone's parent who got the flu and ended up dying a week later. But it happens, every year, all the time. It's just life.

The covid vaccine effectively brings us to the same place. That is, that statistically it will be unlikely for your elderly relative to die from it. The contagiousness will remain high, and people will catch it, but far fewer die from it. But some will die from it. And that is just life. We can't make covid an exception just because it's novel and just wait for an end that may never come.

Haha

Well Israel are pressing ahead

I would guess this is their response to the low uptake in the religious groupings so try and stamp down infections elsewhere to protect those who won't protect themselves (but are politically powerful).

I've no doubt we'll see boosters for older people in Ireland, but the waning efficacy (and really it's not a big drop and is expected as it occurs with all vaccines) doesn't support a mass rollout unless you've already got a weak immune system.

The most important piece of the Israeli puzzle is the vaccine take up by age cohort.

They only have around 90% of their over-60s vaccinated, the rest are holdouts (probably religious orthodox).

All of the data coming out of Israel says that those vaccinated are still well-protected, and if they are struggling with death and hospitalisation rates, it's not because the vaccine is less effective, it's because they have a substantial number of their vulnerable population still completely exposed and a more contagious variant on the loose.

The lessons from Israel are not "we need boosters to keep us going", but "aim for as close as possible to 100% vaccination in people over 55".

Spot on .

Great post

And we would have disagreed much in the past.

As this progresses , we will see lots of people's opinions diverge into basically the same .. area ... thing .. whatever ... you know what I mean ..

Israel PM has instructed Vax centres to open 24 hours a day including on the Sabbath. Certainly cracking on this fella with the boosters.

Covid will never be eradicated as it circulates in multiple animals.

it prevents the latter 2 stages in the vast vast majority of vaccinated people!

Was just reading this article forecasting how many billions the covid vaccine booster market will be worth in a few years time

This will mean lots more queuing, cohorts, digital vaccine certs, authoritarianism, waves, holohan and whatever else. If we are lucky and the aforementioned companies do a good enough job with their boosters we might escape further lockdowns but don't take anything for granted. It makes for depressing reading, so it does.

Was hoping the updated delta-specific vaccine they are coming out with will be enough to send covid the way of the smallpox but I was probably being overly optimistic

Unfortunately, a respiratory disease can live in your nose and it is very hard to eliminate transmission entirely. There are projects for nasal vaccines and nasal sprays (something like First Defence) and perhaps these will get us over the line. Hard lockdowns will not be necessary but some types of activity are superspreaders and will be sometimes restricted. You could have better ventilation standards and air filters etc. in pubs, lecture theatres etc.