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Herd immunity is not going to happen

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  • Registered Users Posts: 5,771 ✭✭✭Charles Babbage


    We still have a load of cases, more people are dying than during the Troubles, there really is a problem. Michael Martin cannot just make a speech banishimg the virus from the country, he isn't St Patrick.



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,426 ✭✭✭FintanMcluskey


    30,000 people loose their lives in Ireland every year

    A huge failure to protect our citizens a figure that should be headline news



  • Registered Users Posts: 18,487 ✭✭✭✭bucketybuck


    Something like 86 people die every day in Ireland?

    And on average covid deaths are currently <1 of those 86?

    Thats definitely bed wetting territory right there, we should definitely be hiding for another few years yet.



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,771 ✭✭✭Charles Babbage


    Not funny. Those people all had family and friends,



  • Registered Users Posts: 13 Marilynr2


    No I remember hearing about that variant in December and being absolutely furious in the months that followed at the restrictions that we had in place here for the citizens, while the government didn't bother to ban travel from India or introduce mandatory hotel quarantine. They knew the variant existed and did nothing to try to stop it coming over here.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 2,275 ✭✭✭fash


    That would have been pointless given the prevalence in UK/NI - what was your plan for them?



  • Registered Users Posts: 31,085 ✭✭✭✭Lumen


    @Jackben75 wrote

    I have some background in this field. Many of you forget the human body which is by far the greatest vaccine with or without a vaccine

    ORLY?



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,614 ✭✭✭Real Donald Trump


    Moronic governments worldwide just need to accept that covid is here to stay and just get on with it. It will never be eradicated.



  • Registered Users Posts: 26,984 ✭✭✭✭Dempo1


    Ireland has come along way in battling this pandemic and that's hard to deny, the vacinne roll out has been remarkable albeit I have to wonder about the HSE relentless tweets stating this percentage, that percentage, actually its another new percentage of the population fully vaccinated, its deliberately bewildering.

    But here's the thing, it would seem, and for whatever reason, some people think Vacination will end this pandemic, Vacination will stop you being infected, indeed stop transmission, when clearly it won't.

    People also get very animated when a discussion on varients starts and yet its actually the fact this virus can mutate, is the key problem. Yes Vacinnes minimise serious illness in most cases, but not all.

    I look at American news channels a lot, less than a month ago, Coronavirus barely featured on news broadcasts, 6 months ago, it was the lead story and the numbers were shocking. In the past two weeks the number of cases and deaths have sky rocketed and its the number 1 story again. Yes, vacinne hesitancy, appalling misinformation, down right crazy conspiracy theories a lot to blame but the point being, let your guard down, become complacent and it's not too difficult to see what happens.

    Here, it's clear Government, NPHET and main street media seem to have lost interest or perhaps feel we are over this. NPHET hasn't met for weeks, I've not heard a whisper from Stephen Donnelly in weeks and at best a few minutes of a mention of enormous case numbers on main evening new bulletins.

    So, thankfully, Vacinations are helping, ICU numbers whilst rising don't appear to leading to high death rates, new cases very high but apparently not much serious illness but to answer the Threads primary question, Yes we're in for this Sh1t for a few more years and incidentally the financial cost and impact of this pandemic has actually not even hit us yet, watch for an economic shock in the very near few months.

    Is maith an scáthán súil charad.




  • Registered Users Posts: 980 ✭✭✭revelman


    I find it incredibly frustrating when people talk about how “few” deaths are linked to Covid. What they seem to forget is that we had that number of deaths in the context of public health measures such as lockdowns and social distancing. If we did not have those measures, then deaths would be much higher. Look at countries where there was a lax approach to public health measures e.g. Brazil and Iran. The Economist reports that Brazil had 550,000 excess deaths to June of this year. This would be equivalent to over 30,000 excess deaths in Ireland. Excess deaths statistics are the most accurate way to track the impact of the pandemic. These are deaths over and above the normal death rate each year. In Brazil, the spread of the virus was such that young people and children without underlying conditions ended up getting very sick and unfortunately some of them died. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-56696907



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  • Registered Users Posts: 583 ✭✭✭crooked cockney villain


    We have circa 16 to 1800 people per week getting this, let's call it 11,000 per week, about 44,000 in a month.


    In any community of 44,000 people, several people are going to die in a given month.


    Because we are still going off died with Covid, rather than died of Covid. the current death figures, as rock bottom low as they are, are about as reliable as Kate and Gerry McCann's explanaton of what happened to their daughter.

    Ask yourself why a a death within 30 days of a Covid positive test is a Covid death, but a death within 30 days of a vaccine isn't a vaccine related death. Statistically speaking, given the gaps in dosage, about one in six deaths this year across all age groups will be of somebody who had a Covid jab in the 30 days prior, yet anybody using this as evidence of mass vaccine deaths would be labelled as a nutter.



  • Registered Users Posts: 435 ✭✭godzilla1989


    Interesting thread but haven't seen anyone do the math yet on what we can expect when everyone is vaccinated?

    Assuming we vaccinate nearly all 5,000,000 of our population soon and we use the data we have at present of 95% efficacy at preventing infection and 99% at preventing hospilisation once infected from the trial data we can mathematically predict hospilisations.

    Assuming a 100% attack rate of the virus over a year, as in it's endemic and we open everything, everyone is gonna exposed too it over a year and we say vaccine protection last 12 months.

    5,000,000/95% efficacy at preventing infection

    = 250,000 that can be infected

    250,000/99% effective at preventing hospilisation once infected

    = 2,500 that can go to hospital in a year

    = 2,500/365 days = 7 vaccinated people per day that go to hospital

    Mathematically that all checks out to me

    So question for anyone that knows, how many vaccinated people are being admitted now to hospital?

    If anything is wrong with my math let me know, thanks



  • Registered Users Posts: 7,859 ✭✭✭growleaves


    'If anything is wrong with my math let me know, thanks'

    Its maths, not math.



  • Registered Users Posts: 435 ✭✭godzilla1989


    Sorry english isn't my first language

    I was only counting vaccinated hospilisations, doens't matter if that total vaccinated figure is wrong, your only using the 95/99% against it

    We have 3,000,000 fully vaccinated now and using the same 95/99% efficacy/preventing hospilisations

    Should only be 4 hospilisations per day at 100% attack rate in fully vaccinated over a year

    What are admissions for fully vaccinated currently?



  • Registered Users Posts: 16,708 ✭✭✭✭astrofool


    Don't worry, it can be math or maths, it's typically math in North America, and maths over here (Europe).

    The numbers missing are what the transmission rate is like when fully opened between vaccinated and unvaccinated people and what the reinfection rate is like and how long the immunity (antibodies and T-Cells) last.



  • Registered Users Posts: 435 ✭✭godzilla1989


    Thank you

    Yeah it's almost impossile to get those rates as we need to go into future to get them, as we don't how long immunity lasts yet and we don't know transmision rates because we are not re-opened, that's why I used 100% attack rate for transmission ( everyone is gonna be exposed to the virus over a 12 month period if it's endemic ) and a 12 month vaccine protection in my calculation ( could be more or less, we don't know yet, but boosters not a good sign )

    3,000,000/95%/99%

    3,000,000 fully vaccinated with 95% efficacy of preventing infection = 150,000 infected

    150,000 with 99% protection of hospital = 1,500 in hospital

    Over a year, average of 4 admissions per day

    If efficacy dropped to 0% ( didnt stop you getting infected ) but 99% protection of hospilisation stayed.

    3,000,000/0%/99% = 30,000 in hospital

    Over a year, average of 82 admissions per day

    So preventing infections is still pretty important, even with a vaccine that 99% prevents hospital stay

    I would be interested to see the hospital admissions daily for vaccinated people and work the maths backwards for it



  • Registered Users Posts: 13 Marilynr2


    I didn't have a plan. It's not up to me to make plans 😂 However if I had been in government I certainly would have had a plan. I wouldn't have had the citizens locked down for months while letting others travel here and not have any restrictions in place.

    To say it's pointless because of the UK/NI is a cop out, I remember that argument at the time when they were stalling about the quarantine hotel....we could say that all measures were pointless then if that was the case. What was the point in closing shops if it could still be spread in supermarkets for example?

    So it definitely wasn't pointless, because we've been told the measures are to slow the spread, rather than stop it completely.

    It also would have been a gesture to the citizens that they were taking it seriously, and that they appreciated our efforts! That was the point for me when I couldn't take the government seriously anymore, and it was the same for many others, who then started questioning why the government were handling it that way!



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,275 ✭✭✭fash


    Actually your "I would have banned India but I've no idea what I would do do UK because I'm not government so I don't need to have a plan - yet I know the government did a terrible job - it's just that I don't know what "better" would be - is the cop out.

    Yes it would be pointless. Ireland got delta from the UK. Get 1000 cases from the UK and 1 or 2 cases from India, then stopping the 1 or 2 cases is pointless.

    Doing cheap "gesture politics" stunts which you know won't work just because stupid people "appreciate" the efforts and shows the government is "trying" -"hey let's ban indians"- "hey let's ban Chinese people now since Covid originally came from there" is the sort of nonsense that Trump would do.



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,108 ✭✭✭patnor1011


    I find incredibly frustrating when people talk about excess death in Brazil and try to compare their situation with ours. There are huge differences between living standard and all what that entails between us and them. Also there was lockdown and social distancing in Brazil and what make your "measures" argument false is that Brazil actually required masks even outdoors which was never the case here for example.

    There is no PUP scheme in place over there and people who barely had enough to eat before covid had nothing during their lockdowns. Poor countries fared much worse than western countries and comparing Ireland and Brazil excess death patting itself on the back about how well we managed this virus is just sad.



  • Posts: 3,801 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    western countries did worse than Africa for a long time. The wealth of a country has little to do with getting the virus. The largest number of deaths is older people and in fact western developed countries have older populations.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 8,296 ✭✭✭ceadaoin.



    People are living in cloud cuckoo land. It absolutely was sold as preventing transmission. That was the "primary goal" originally! It went from this:

    Dr. Rochelle Walensky, director of the CDC, told MSNBC’s Rachel Maddow on Tuesday, "Vaccinated people do not carry the virus — they don’t get sick,” . That’s “not just in the clinical trials, but it’s also in real-world data.”



    To this:

    "Our vaccines are working exceptionally well," Walensky told CNN's Wolf Blitzer. "They continue to work well for Delta, with regard to severe illness and death -- they prevent it. But what they can't do anymore is prevent transmission."


    From this:

    "Dr. Anthony Fauci said Wednesday there is mounting evidence that COVID-19 vaccines reduce the amount of virus in a person, indicating people who receive the shots will not only be protected but less likely to spread the pathogen to others. "

    To this:

    " Anthony Fauci, President Biden's chief medical adviser, on Sunday discussed new Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) data that showed the levels of coronavirus in breakthrough cases of the delta variant among those who are fully vaccinated are "almost identical" to the levels seen among unvaccinated individuals."


    All in the space of 6 months, give or take. . It's the very definition of gaslighting to say that no one ever said it would prevent transmission. They did.


    I'll be banned for "misinformation" now for posting actual quotes from public health officials.



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,683 ✭✭✭brickster69


    You are banging your ahead against a wall. They won't listen

    “The earth is littered with the ruins of empires that believed they were eternal.”

    - Camille Paglia



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,610 ✭✭✭Treppen


    I think Donald Trump is goosed from long covid. It's not like him to be so quiet.



  • Registered Users Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    "Based one what we know now" prefaces all of that. The ultimate aim is to maximise vaccinations, by fair means or foul. You can take umbrage with it if you wish but some of it is just commentary best ignored.



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,296 ✭✭✭ceadaoin.


    Exactly, and I get that. But the people saying "oh no one ever said that/they were never supposed to do x, you anti vaxxer. misinformation!", just grind my gears tbh



  • Registered Users Posts: 12,243 ✭✭✭✭Flinty997


    That's because you cherry pick these comments out of context.

    The reality is vaccines have done almost everything they were intended to do, but only have lower effectiveness against the new delta variants.

    As the delta variant is new we are still leaving about it. We do know that the vaccine is still better than no vaccine when it comes to delta.

    Some vaccine programmes run for decades, we aren't even a year in with this one and people are giving up already.



  • Registered Users Posts: 12,243 ✭✭✭✭Flinty997



    Maybe you'd prefer to base the discussion on what we don't know.



  • Registered Users Posts: 6,556 ✭✭✭Micky 32


    I think this thread should either be put in the comedy section or maybe in a new forum called the BS section.





  • Registered Users Posts: 7,236 ✭✭✭mcmoustache


    Yeah, that's the case all over the US.




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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,491 ✭✭✭fun loving criminal


    Just been reading journal.ie and increasing covid cases has an impact on the hospitals.

    Sounds like they're prepping us for restrictions.

    But not sure how they can and coming up to schools opening as well.

    What do others think how things will go?



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