Relaxation of Restrictions, Part XII *Read OP For Mod Warnings*

In July, 16 people in Ireland were reported as dying of Covid. c.31,000 die in Ireland each year from all causes, so in July approx 2,600 died of all causes meaning Covid deaths are 0.6% of all deaths at the moment. Just 0.6%. For comparison 17 people died on our roads in July - more than from Covid in the month.

Since the pandemic began 90% of deaths are in the 65+ cohort and 88% had underlying conditions. Since the early summer when the vaccine programme has been rolled out widely, the numbers of deaths has dramatically declined.

We've lost perspective in this country unfortunately and are still dealing with this more like it was last winter than the reality on the ground now.

It's been clear for a while now that we are no longer dealing with a COVID crisis. What we have now is a HSE crisis, where they are using the virus to deflect from their own failings for a long time. Remember, NPHET is made up from a lot of HSE top brass so it makes perfect sense for them to want restrictions to maintain as long as possible to help them "catch-up" on the million plus outpatient appointments etc. They don't care about anything else. This is where the government have failed miserably to take anything else in to account.

Who cares who was at the Merrion? It's the wailing and hand wringing about crap like that that has this government hiding behind NPHET.

The UK government have rightly accepted that a certain amount of covid deaths per year will have to be accepted as normal. 600,000 people die in the UK every year and its not worth spending billions locking the country up to save a small amount of people (compared to their population) from dying. The people most at risk have been vaccinated so its time to move on.

Meanwhile in Ireland we can’t have a grown up conversation about death despite circa 30,000 people dying here every year

This is the worst thing, we have pissed away billions with nothing to show for it. Those billions invested in the health system could have saved lives, but we only obsess over deaths from one respiratory illness.

No. I think this thread is pretty much weighted the other way.

Since there are so many recent posts about death rates, I’m reposting a post of mine from another thread:

I find it incredibly frustrating when people talk about how “few” deaths are linked to Covid. What they seem to forget is that we had that number of deaths in the context of public health measures such as lockdowns and social distancing. If we did not have those measures, then deaths would be much higher. Look at countries where there was a lax approach to public health measures e.g. Brazil and Iran. The Economist reports that Brazil had 550,000 excess deaths to June of this year. This would be equivalent to over 30,000 excess deaths in Ireland over the course of the pandemic. Excess deaths statistics are the most accurate way to track the impact of the pandemic. These are deaths over and above the normal death rate each year. In Brazil, the spread of the virus was such that young people and children without underlying conditions ended up getting very sick and unfortunately some of them died. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-56696907

You say that the science says that vaccinated and unvaccinated people carry the same viral load. This is incorrect.

Read this: https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-02187-1

Firstly, a vaccinated person will only harbour the virus if there is a breakthrough infection. There have been far more breakthrough infections with Delta than with previous variants. Nobody knows how many infections are currently breaking through. This is being studied right now but scientists assume it is a minority of vaccinated people. Some estimates have said between 5% and 17%.

If you are one of that minority of vaccinated people who have experienced a breakthrough infection, then you are correct that you carry the same viral load as an unvaccinated person. But the Nature article above states that all the signs are that you will be infectious for a far shorter period than an unvaccinated person.

So there really is a big difference between being vaccinated and unvaccinated.

People dislike the slippery slope argument but this is exactly why even fully vaccinated people like me were totally against the horseshit vaccine passports for getting into restaurants. Because it was never about restaurants, they were just the easy first target, and once they were accepted the overton window shifted and now they can do the same thing to schools and every other part of society. The precedent is there after all.

And as you say, the crazy thing is that they are not backed up by science, vaccinated people can still spread covid so they don't serve any relevant health and safety purpose.

The cheerleaders will cheer no matter what illogical rubbish the NPHET government come out with but things like this should really make even the dumbest people stop and think to themselves.

I will leave you to it.

The most ridiculous things are being asserted on this thread. Several people this morning have said that vaccinated people can transmit the virus in the same way as unvaccinated people. Not one of them seems to understand that a vaccinated person can only transmit the virus if they become infected first. And only a small proportion of vaccinated people will experience such breakthrough infections. Yet, the idea that there is no difference between being vaccinated and unvaccinated in terms of transmission is being repeated over and over again as gospel.

Plenty of people are pro restrictions. A guy in work yesterday said to me he hopes we lockdown again. Plenty of people out there like this. Lazy bastards basically.

Oh I’m with ya on the unnecessary overly cautious rules everywhere. They are ridiculous. But I don’t believe that covid vaccines are the “silver bullet”. The amount of breakthrough infections and the immediate need for boosters tells all. They are a led bullet at best

Leaving aside basket cases like Brazil for one minute, how many lives were saved here in Ireland due to having such a strict/protracted protracted lockdown and restrictions?

We don't really need to track excess deaths here to know the real number as we have been one of the more transparent countries when it comes to reporting COVID related deaths. What we will have to track is whether we see an uplift in non COVID related deaths in the coming years with many of the other vital areas of the health system put on hold or seriously reduced in capacity.

Anyway, we could argue round in circles all day about the benefits of lockdowns and what the real costs were. What we know with a very high degree of certainty is that the vaccines work. We have 1800 cases a day and 155 deaths since the start of April (with many of those coming in April/May). This thing is over from a public health emergency point of view.