Covid 19 Part XXXV-956,720 ROI (5,952 deaths) 452,946 NI (3,002 deaths) (08/01) Read OP

irishguy1983 · 14-08-2021 6:02pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117753468#Comment_117753468

I hear ya but 22% isn’t exactly huge considering the way they are living and we are living…Full crowds, nightclubs, no restrictions, etc and only 22%….Doesn’t make sense but I suppose not much makes sense with this whole virus :)

14-08-2021 6:09pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117753734#Comment_117753734

That’s the point though. It wasn’t the end of the world in the 1900 - 1950s era either, but a lot of people got sick and died and it was just how life was. There was a higher risk and lower expectations.

It’s possible we are going to end up with a somewhat increased risk, certainly less risk than with say polio etc, as this pandemic becomes normalised and managed rather than just permanently ended but there’ll be increased risk.

When the high risk is over and we’re into managed low risk, that’s where we’ll be at the getting on with it stage.

We can’t go to zero risk, certainly not unless we get revised vaccines or very effective antivirals etc

We’ll know whether we are at the level that it’s just a minor background risk in a few weeks, as the almost full pop vaccine (over 12 anyway) fully beds in.

brickster69 · 14-08-2021 6:19pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117753468#Comment_117753468

And testing nearly 50 times as much / day.

Apothic_Red · 14-08-2021 6:35pm

Had a look at Nolan's Twitter, Boards seems to be a different universe. Load calling to pull the schools going back. For every open up merchant there's a Helen Lovejoy.

deeperlearning · 14-08-2021 6:49pm

As usual, a very small but very vocal minority of teachers will appear on Twitter demanding that schools not go back.

Plus ça change.

14-08-2021 6:50pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117753933#Comment_117753933

Just had a look at his Twitter page. He writes: "Vaccines are not perfectly effective: we will need to help them by taking simple hygiene measures to prevent infection."

I really don't see those masks ever going. People keep saying that they definitely will, but I don't see any evidence that backs that up. I see loads of evidence that they'll never go, however. Remember Holohan said before that the vaccines would merely complement the current measures.

iamwhoiam · 14-08-2021 7:04pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117753555#Comment_117753555

If only we had as many ICU beds as Alabama . We could only wish for 689 ICU beds here

brickster69 · 14-08-2021 7:05pm

Should get interesting ( paywall )

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/china-the-who-and-the-powergrab-that-fuelled-a-pandemic-3mt05m06n

CalamariFritti · 14-08-2021 7:20pm

@Gortanna

Yes, it's the confusion that's most annoying. Massive case numbers and deaths in countries with masks everywhere vs low case numbers and few deaths in countries with no masks (Norway in particular). And yet 99.9% of people in that mask thread swear by them. I don't get it. How can huge case numbers in mask countries versus hardly any cases in maskless countries be ignored?

That thread is hardcore. I only go in there in my most ardent moments, scary territory.

godzilla1989 · 14-08-2021 8:05pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117754045#Comment_117754045

Covering the HSE failings with his tweets.

If vaccine's don't slow down infections enough hospitals here will be under pressure in due time even with vaccines that are 99% effective at preventing hospilisations, which tells you how bad our hospital capacity is.

2,000 cases a day = 20 vaccinated a day in hospital

We should be able to cope with much more than that, 10,000 cases and 100 vaccinated in hospital a day shouldn't be an issue but our hospitals are rubbish.

UK are averaging 750 hospilisations a day out of 30,000 case a day average, so vaccines and not vaccinated hospilisation rate is hovering at about about 97.5% effective all in and they are managing fine, could we manage 50 hospilisations a day?

gral6 · 14-08-2021 8:19pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117754690#Comment_117754690

We can not manage that. Only lockdown and cancellation of planned surgeries are our way out of it. Sorry, not a way out. Just kicking the can down the road...

shesty · 14-08-2021 8:23pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117754137#Comment_117754137

If I remember that article correctly, Alabama has over 1000 ICU beds.1 state of the US has that.Now look...I am well aware of the shortcomings of the American health care system and the huge costs.But we are embarassing in comparison, especially at this point. 18 months into this and we have made no real attempt to significantly improve our ICU system with the longer term in mind. The longer this goes on, the more incomprehensible it all becomes.

mcburns07 · 14-08-2021 8:32pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117754045#Comment_117754045

They’re already gone in quite a few countries in Europe. We’ll be slow to the party as usual but eventually we’ll be rid of them too.

Wolf359f · 14-08-2021 8:37pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117754690#Comment_117754690

Our 7 day average of cases is 1805 and 7 day hospital admissions are 32.

Accounting for a week lag from case to admission, it means 1411 cases result in 32 admissions.

So 10000 cases a day would result in 226 admissions. There's no way a health service can function with those kind of admissions. At least use accurate figures to make your point.

Some UK hospitals have cancelled elective care, so not all are managing fine.

godzilla1989 · 14-08-2021 8:40pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117754808#Comment_117754808

I agree

It's crazy to think 50 hospilisations day out of a population of 5,000,000 is not managable, of those 50, 10 would be ICU admissions.

It's an absolute disgrace that we got such a good vaccine and they are amazing to be honest, 99% effective at preventing severe illness on it's own is amazing, never mind slowing transmission/slowing infection and we won't cope.

godzilla1989 · 14-08-2021 8:48pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117754995#Comment_117754995

Those figures are real world, I used vaccinated only figure of 99% effective eg 100 out of 10,000

Using your figures 226 admissions a day from 10,000 cases is a 98% effective vaccination program in preventing serious illness

That's a brilliant vaccine program, don't you agree? and we won't cope with those admissions?

We can't stop transmission anymore, people have to live and meetup, cases are gonna rise, the virus want's to live and so do we.

Vaccine's can do no more now, time for the governments to step up hospital capacity

Wolf359f · 14-08-2021 9:03pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117755058#Comment_117755058

I'm not talking about the vaccine figures. I was simply stating that your calculation of how many hospital admissions we would expect from 10000 daily cases is off. You can't work out the vaccine efficiency unless you know how many cases are in what age group and what the number of vaccinated people testing positive is etc...

And no, I don't believe 226 daily admissions is any way sustainable. That's 7 times our current rate. I'd love to know after 2 weeks of those daily admissions what the total in hospital would be, let alone the ICU figures.

godzilla1989 · 14-08-2021 9:06pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117754995#Comment_117754995

Do you know by any chance what the CHR ( case hospilisation rate ) in the 2nd wave in OCT/NOV was when we had 1,000 cases a day?

Seemed to be about 6% vs 2% now?

We had about 300 in hospital in Nov vs 233 now in August

We peaked at 400 in 2nd wave, this wave looks like it will be similar

godzilla1989 · 14-08-2021 9:09pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117755141#Comment_117755141

If the vaccine is 99% at preventing hospilisation and nearly everyone gets it then the 10,000 daily cases turing into 100 hospital admissions a day is accurate.

It's 98% now with 1,800,000 million left to vaccinate,, so 99% looks correct imo

ceadaoin. · 14-08-2021 9:14pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117754835#Comment_117754835

Just my city, with a population of around a million people has 730 icu beds and over 5000 beds. We've had multiple surges at this stage and the hospitals have never been overwhelmed

Wolf359f · 14-08-2021 9:41pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117755153#Comment_117755153

The peak (7 day average) of cases was 1175 and hospitalization was 25, which doesn't seem right?

The positivity rate was similar also, 7% back then, I think it's maybe 9% now?

Wolf359f · 14-08-2021 9:44pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117755173#Comment_117755173

I don't think it's as straight forward as that. Without a vaccine (let's just say a placebo), only say 10% were hospitalized, therefore the placebo is 90% effective?

godzilla1989 · 14-08-2021 10:04pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117755380#Comment_117755380

That's exactly it though, it is that simple

In the 2nd wave in Oct/Nov we had a 1,000 cases a day and 60-70 admissions a day with no vaccines, a CHR of 6% or so which is 94% for placebo

Today thanks to your figure we have 22 admissions for the same 1,000 cases, a CHR of 2%, which 98% effective for a high vaccinated/low vaccinated population

Vacccines are amazing if they can prevent infection as well as hospilisations.

Trial data showed 95% efficacy at preventing infection and 99% effective at preventing populations

So if 10,000 people get the vaccine, 10,000/95%/99% = 5 go to hospital

In placebo those 10,000 people = 10,000/0%/94% = 600 go to hospital

Basically if vaccines stop being effective at stoping infections we are in big trouble as 99% preventing hospilisations on it's own is not enough.

If it goes down to say 50%

10,000/50%/99% = 50 go to hospital.

The difference between 50% efficacious vs 95% efficacious is 50 vs 5 going to hospital, hence NPHET really wanting lower transmission even with 80% of adults fully vaccinated

godzilla1989 · 14-08-2021 10:07pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117755364#Comment_117755364

25 seems too low

That would be a CHR of just over 2%, I read it was 60-70 admissions a day then, can't link it as new user, which would be 6-7% CHR which seems a bit more realistic

10% percent of cases were going to hospital at one stage and 3% were dieing.

It's alot lower now thankfully

Wolf359f · 14-08-2021 10:08pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117755493#Comment_117755493

We never came close to 60-70 daily admissions in Oct/November, the 7 day average peaked at just 25.

So 7 day average of 1175 cases and 25 admissions is a CHR of 2%

godzilla1989 · 14-08-2021 10:13pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117755515#Comment_117755515

How is that possible now though if we have a CHR of 2% with 80% of adults fully vaccinated?

Makes no sense, same CHR as Oct/Nov 2020

We had 33 admissions today, from 1500 or so cases a day last week?

Wolf359f · 14-08-2021 10:13pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117755508#Comment_117755508

https://covid-19.geohive.ie/pages/hospitals-icu--testing

There's all the figures for cases & admissions.

We don't have a breakdown of cases in age groups as of late, so there's no way to compare like for like.

1000 cases in Oct in 18-20 age group would likely have a very similar CHR as 1000 cases in a partially vaccinated 18-20 age group today (meaning the CHR is so low, it's hard to show just how effective vaccines are)

godzilla1989 · 14-08-2021 10:22pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117755535#Comment_117755535

True for the 18-20 group

But it’s not 25 young adults that were admitted per day in Oct/Nov and not 33 of them young adults admitted today?

Its the same people that always went to hospital?

Older, underlying conditions etc?

Not a chance the 33 admissions today were healthy unvaccinated 18-20 years old

The HSE needs to provide context on these daily admissions

Are they vaccinated, are they unvaccinated, are they healthy, what age are they

The math as you can see yourself doesn’t checkout

1 & 1 ain’t 2 anymore

Wolf359f · 14-08-2021 10:43pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117755577#Comment_117755577

See this is what annoys me, we have zero new detailed stats since the hack.

In Oct/November 2020:

Age Group /Cases/%Hospitalization

1-4 / 1330 / 1.65%

5-14 / 3395 / 0.74%

15-24 /8296 / 0.94%

25-34 / 5782 / 1.83%

35-34 / 5204 / 2.23%

45-54 / 4881 / 3.42%

55-64 / 3582 / 6.15%

65-74 / 1799 / 16.68%

75-84 / 1094 / 34.73%

85+ / 695 / 31.80%

If we had updated figures, we could see a much better picture of how the vaccines are working.

And yes, the HSE actually had the vaccination status on hospital admissions in their 8pm report, but that only lasted for 1 day!

godzilla1989 · 14-08-2021 10:50pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117755681#Comment_117755681

I don’t think they want us to see it Wolf

I doubt the CHR for those age cohorts has changed much at all

How could it change?

Delta is more transmissible not more lethal

Delta would have to be way more lethal to non vaccinated young people to change those age cohorts drastically

Nearly everyone over 40 is fully vaccinated

Which begs the question, who the hell are these people going to hospital?

Covid 19 Part XXXV-956,720 ROI (5,952 deaths) 452,946 NI (3,002 deaths) (08/01) Read OP

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