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Herd immunity is not going to happen

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  • Registered Users Posts: 7,767 ✭✭✭Deeper Blue


    Putting restrictions of any kind on one of the most vaccinated countries on the planet is completely unacceptable and I think people realise this.

    The vaccinated population are at virtually no risk of serious illness and should be allowed to live our lives unrestricted. It's not our job to protect the health service.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,491 ✭✭✭fun loving criminal


    What about breakthrough infections? There will always be some that will end up in hospital.



  • Registered Users Posts: 13 Marilynr2


    It's not a cop out at all. Hardly going to sit down and come up with a big bulletpoint plan now am I? 😂 But yes I would have restricted countries that I could ban for the sake of limiting the spread. It's not pointless to try to stop 1 or 2 cases, they could be super spreaders, those 1 or 2 cases could have started a specific cluster among a vulnerable group.

    The citizens were also asked at that time (after being locked down for almost 3 months) to just "do a little bit more".

    And I'm far from 'stupid' and not a 'stupid person'....I said it would have been a 'gesture', that was a side note to my main point which was that restrictions on countries would have been in line with restrictions placed on us, for the same reason that we were being told, to stop the spread, stop super spreaders, "do a little more"..etc. It's not so much that it would have been a gesture, but that the lack of them doing anything said far more!!!

    Post edited by Marilynr2 on


  • Registered Users Posts: 389 ✭✭Vaccinated30


    Yes.

    All vaccines leave a possibility to contract and spread whatever it is against. We have heard immunity to most things but they still exist and people can still get them. I have no rubella immunity despite numerous vaccines and boosters. I have also caught whooping cough despite vaccination. I have friends who have caught chicken pox more than twice and one has been vaccinated and still got it again. Many children develop meningitis despite vaccination. The difference is we were all mostly born when the virus was already controlled, this time we are living through it becoming controlled.

    You are significantly less likely to catch covid while vaccinated v unvaccinated and less likely again to spread it although both are possible, they're also possible with every single vaccine we give .



  • Registered Users Posts: 7,767 ✭✭✭Deeper Blue


    There will always be people in hospital for flu aswell but we don't shut the country and cripple the economy because of it.

    Covid will very soon be just another illness due to vaccination. We need to start accepting that there will be serious cases and live with it.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,491 ✭✭✭fun loving criminal


    I completely agree. But it's our government's fault by not planning for this. They seem to be placing restrictions on us and expect us to take the hit when they're doing very little themselves.



  • Registered Users Posts: 12,243 ✭✭✭✭Flinty997




    The flaw in the that mindset is if the hospital did become overloaded (and currently there isn't a risk of that) and you go into with something unrelated to Covid, there may not be resources to treat and look after you. I guess thats why they are not so much looking at the case numbers but the hospitalizations as the critical number.



  • Registered Users Posts: 7,767 ✭✭✭Deeper Blue


    The hospitals have been overloaded for years, the annual trolley crisis had been happening for well over a decade before Covid came along. The sky never fell down.



  • Registered Users Posts: 389 ✭✭Vaccinated30


    Throughout the pandemic I have landed in AandE 5 times,(children) and other than spending a week for one of the visits, Ive never been seen as quick in my whole life. NYE we were in and out within an hour and a half with a head injury. Covid seems to have removed the waiting around the hospital understandably so, and this should carry forward especially during flu season. I spent 14 hours on a trolly in AandE with my Aunt years ago, the health system is fine, the problem is the cancelling of 'non essential' services that were never cancelled before even though things were worse.



    Ps, before covid we hadn't even seen the GP for years, lockdown sent the kids cuckoo apparently 🤣



  • Registered Users Posts: 13,692 ✭✭✭✭thebaz


    Most vaccinated people will not end up in hospital, most illness's result in some people ending up in hospital (flu effects some people badly too) - at a certain point we have to start living again, living a full life , if people chose to not be vaccinated that is their choice, but they are certainly putting themselves at risk.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 12,243 ✭✭✭✭Flinty997




  • Registered Users Posts: 12,243 ✭✭✭✭Flinty997



    This is bit like calling airbags pointless because you never used one.

    Oh and we should cancel all the routine services on a car, and just fix it which something fails catastrophically on the motorway.

    https://www.thejournal.ie/paul-reid-covid-19-cases-hospital-icu-increase-5523674-Aug2021/

    Post edited by Flinty997 on


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,275 ✭✭✭fash


    Yes it is a cop-out: you have a proposal (silly as it was) for India - yet nothing similar for the UK - why?

    And you say you "might" stop 1 or 2 super spreader events but the issue is that you would have failed to stop thousands upon thousands of super spreader events caused by the UK - each of which causes further thousands upon thousands of cases. So again stopping 1 or 2 super spreader events is pointless if you allow thousands upon thousands. And let's not forget: how many direct flights from India are there - how many in fact fly to the UK? How many would simply have redirected their flights to the UK and then fly on from there? Or route into Belfast?

    Your "Won't someone do something - I don't care if it works or not" is precisely the nonsense that brings out the worst in politicians.



  • Registered Users Posts: 389 ✭✭Vaccinated30


    Its actually not. Im saying I've used the airbags a lot during the last year and they have been more efficient than ever before.

    Im saying services shouldnt be cancelled and the airbags should still be efficient. What did you read?



  • Registered Users Posts: 12,243 ✭✭✭✭Flinty997


    "...Covid seems to have removed the waiting around the hospital understandably so, and this should carry forward especially during flu season..."


    Dumb broken forum...can't quote properly.



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Its all about about building the strongest vaccine wall possible.

    UK understand this as they are always testing how many in their population have covid antibodies.

    They want to make this wall as strong as possible so that covid causes less and less harm as time goes on and science slowly catches up with dealing more and more effectively with this disease.

    Elimination in the short/medium term has not been the strategy from the start in europe.

    Eliminate after a few seasons may be possible, but outcomes already are getting better as time goes on.

    The problem with covid is it is influenza in slow motion.

    I suggest we should be at high levels of immunity by the end of September where we will probably have started boosting nursing homes/hcws.

    Who knows maybe after Delta, covid has thrown all it can throw at us?



  • Registered Users Posts: 13 Marilynr2


    It wasn't "silly", Is that your level of debate? just saying things are silly or referring to stupid people or randomly associating something with Trump just for the sake of it! Please stop because it's ridiculous!

    The difference with the UK is that we share a border with Northern Ireland so it would not have been as simple...which I'm sure you are aware of.

    I didn't say 'super spreader events' either, I said "super spreaders" as in one individual could have came over and started a cluster and that specific cluster could have been stopped but the government didn't seem to care about that! Your argument that it still spreads anyway so stopping certain things is pointless completely goes against all the phases and stages of lifting restrictions that the government have been doing.

    I can go and do a fitness class but not a dance class, both socially distanced but one is allowed and the other isn't. Surely it's pointless to stop the dance classes when it could be spreading at all the gyms across the country?



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,920 ✭✭✭Grab All Association


    Roscrea

    Thurles

    carrick

    Tipperary

    Cashel

    Nenagh (downgraded)

    this is just Tipperary!

    Had these hospitals not closed the health service wouldn’t be the mess it is. With fake doctors that think elbows are ankles, patients on trolleys in corridors etc.

    1/10 for UHL is generous

    10/10 for the care I received in Cashel and Nenagh hospital in the 90s

    They have had 18+ months to restore capacity and services.



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,072 ✭✭✭joseywhales


    Herd immunity will not happen if covid becomes as endemic and has as many diverse strains as the common cold, then we can never create and deliver enough vaccine worldwide, to target every strain. Furthermore, if immunity from post infection only lasts for a finite time and one can get reinfected with the same strain, you will also not reach herd immunity because the virus will always be multiplying in some group of people in the world and will eventually return a year or two later. But it's also possible that a new dominant strain appears that is not so harmful, like a common cold and covid become inconsequential and we live with a new family of the already large set of diseases we refer to as a cold. Noone really believes we will even vaccinate 50% of the world do they?


    Of course there is one simple solution that would be the most amazing logistic achievement ever. Get all humans on earth to isolate from all others for 14 days. It's simply not possible for the vast majority though.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,275 ✭✭✭fash


    Herd immunity isn't going to happen: the vaccines do not provide sterilizing immunity and delta has an R0 of 8 - which means more than 7 out of 8 people need sterilizing immunity to achieve herd immunity. Covid is already endemic.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 2,275 ✭✭✭fash


    At least you now admit that GB & NI are "not as simple". That's a great start.

    Now you need to understand that lots more people come from GB & NI than come from India.

    Afterwards, we can run through the mathematics of exponential growth - so you can decide for yourself whether your previous statements were indeed silly and foolish.



  • Registered Users Posts: 389 ✭✭Vaccinated30


    Again, I do not have a clue what your point is.

    Waiting around the hospitals have been reduced, patients are in and out as quick as possible because the Staff want to reduce infection risk. There is no reason why this cannot carry on during flu season. Don't bother to quote me unless you at least try to make a point.



  • Registered Users Posts: 12,243 ✭✭✭✭Flinty997



    Lol. The waiting time didn't just reduce because staff just decided to do it quicker. It's primarily because all non critical work had stopped allowing the staff to be available to deal with people immediately.

    Once normality returns and all the other work resumes fully, the waiting times will be back.

    https://m.independent.ie/irish-news/health/shocking-increase-in-hospital-waiting-lists-as-over-880000-wait-for-care-hospital-consultants-40295492.html



  • Registered Users Posts: 16,708 ✭✭✭✭astrofool


    The problem in the health system in Ireland isn't too few hospitals, it's too many hospitals with small catchment areas (because every village needs a pub, I mean hospital). Had it been done properly, we'd have closed multiple other hospitals but allowed the remaining hospitals to grow much bigger with multiple specialties on site, with much more staff and beds and facilities.

    This still needs to happen, but parish pump politics prevents it.



  • Registered Users Posts: 69,006 ✭✭✭✭L1011


    Multiple tiny A&Es and ICUs result in worse outcomes than fewer larger ones. Better consultant cover, easier to provide services for and so on.

    We still have too many small hospitals.

    What the smaller hospitals could be used for should also be punted to primary care centres, to reduce the numbers attending acute hospitals.



  • Registered Users Posts: 68,317 ✭✭✭✭seamus


    Yep. Too many small hospitals built to buy votes from rural dwellers. Our resources are stretched too thin for the population density that we have.

    A smaller number of large regional hospitals supported by a large number of Swiftcare-style primary care clinics is the only way.

    The post you quote lists 6 hospitals for a county of just 150,000 people. That tells a whole story in itself.



  • Registered Users Posts: 12,243 ✭✭✭✭Flinty997


    All we've done is close small hospitals and make fewer bigger ones for decades. Yet it hasn't got better.

    We're spending over 2 billion to get a childrens hospital with no extra capacity.

    When do you realize the plan isn't working.



  • Registered Users Posts: 14,005 ✭✭✭✭AlekSmart


    That "risk factor" and the attendant focus on maintaining and spreading fear is one of the questions that interests me.

    Today's HSE stats show a Total of 4,728,904 Covid tests administered.

    262,907 returned as Positive.

    Of those positives 14,430 were hospitalized and 1,543 of those ended up in ICU.

    Those statistics are Totals,incomporating the last 15 months of this thing,so some predate vaccines.

    From looking at coverage from Afghanistan for example,It seems fear of a Kalashnikov far exceeds fear of Covid 19,I guess this is all about perspective,and how particularly in the Western World,mass perception has within the space of 18 months been been turned into a very effective management tool ?


    Men, it has been well said, think in herds; it will be seen that they go mad in herds, while they only recover their senses slowly, and one by one.

    Charles Mackay (1812-1889)



  • Registered Users Posts: 31,085 ✭✭✭✭Lumen


    @AlekSmart wrote

    From looking at coverage from Afghanistan for example,It seems fear of a Kalashnikov far exceeds fear of Covid 19,I guess this is all about perspective,and how particularly in the Western World,mass perception has within the space of 18 months been been turned into a very effective management tool ?

    Right, a civil war certainly helps to put covid in perspective. Moah AK47s!



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  • Registered Users Posts: 4,072 ✭✭✭joseywhales


    I don't know what the personal experience of most people is, beyond the statistics. Since infections happen in clusters, it's probably a case of hit or miss with families. For me, I am still to know anyone personally, who are aware or will admit at least(not that there is any stigma), that they have caught covid. However, I do know of others, work colleagues of my wife in hospital, who have recovered from it. If it does become truly endemic in all regions, I wonder will it reduce the average lifespan of humans in developed countries on a permanent basis, that would be a serious step backward. The Americans have seemingly done this anyway, through lifestyle and environmental factors but it would be nice to think we can overcome the challenge as a human race.



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